Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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371 FXUS61 KLWX 290013 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 813 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A front will remain stationary along the Mason-Dixon line through Friday morning. An area of low pressure will ride along this front across the area tonight into Friday. The front will move offshore during the weekend, then high pressure will build in by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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We have dropped the majority of the severe thunderstorm warning and all of the flash flood watch. Flooding possibility was predicated on what happened from the storms this afternoon. Short periods of heavy rain were observed by not enough to cause much of a response. Showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening as the large amount of moisture which has been stored in the atmosphere is being released. A weak line over WV should reach the Mid Atlantic later tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Once low emerges from coast, which should be sometime Friday morning, there won`t be a lot of forcing for thunderstorms on Friday. However the front will still be nearby with embedded vort energy. Therefore its entirely possible that thunderstorms may return Friday afternoon. Will maintain chance PoPs for the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave will track across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Anticipate that this afternoon`s scenario will repeat on Saturday, although the airmass likely won`t be quite as unstable. Current SPC outlook is for MRGL severe risk. Can forsee more heavy rain issues. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Quasi-stationary front remains near the area Sunday and will act as a foci for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in the warm (U80s) and humid atmosphere (dewpoints in L70s). Frontal boundary begins to sink southward as a "cold" front late Sunday into Monday with weak high pressure beginning to build into the area. This will act to keep temperatures near seasonable averages through much of the week. Proximity of frontal boundary just to our south keeps shower/storm chances in the forecast Monday (especially in the southern part of the forecast area). By Tuesday, front is forecast to move far enough south that shower/thunderstorm chances will be limited through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There may be a second round of storms late this evening. Airports may still have low ceilings (MVFR) if it does. Worse case supports a continuation into the morning push Friday. A lull in activity expected Fri afternoon and night before more rain moves into the area Sat-Sat night. Stalled frontal boundary across the area Sunday will lead to showers and thunderstorms. Front sinks just south of the area Monday, though showers/thunderstorms are still possible (mainly for southern terminals). Front far enough south by Tuesday that shower/storm chances should be limited. && .MARINE... Marine Warnings likely near thunderstorms. Winds strengthen late tonight and especially Friday as deepening low pressure departs the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower Potomac for Friday. Frontal boundary remains across the area Sunday, with thunderstorms possible into Monday. Any storm could produce gusty winds over the waters. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>534-537>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.