Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280103 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 903 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE...AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS UNDERWAY. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY...BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP IT FROM GETTING AS CHILLY LAST NIGHT. NO FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT. RE- POPULATED MINIMA USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS WITH AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE CIRRUS...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES /FOR LATE OCTOBER/ ARE EXPECTED WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP SFC LOW WILL BE RETREATING TOWARDS HUDSON BAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A CONFINED AREA OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL MAKE A EASTWARD PROJECTION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BUT AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VA BY WED AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. POLAR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL DURING THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND LOW CENTER OVER NEW ENDLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WENT HIGHER THAN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY TEMPERATURES DO EXPECT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAYTIME. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT FOR ENHANCEMENT UP THE BAY DUE TO CHANNELLING. PREVAILING 10 TO 15 KT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FOR 20 KT GUSTS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WITH A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACHING HIGH AND LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MAY GENERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BPP/HAS MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEM

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