Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 171428 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1028 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. IT WAS ANOTHER COLD MORNING...BUT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY UNDER THE MID-APRIL SUN. WE ARE BEGINNING THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CIRRUS. AM WATCHING SOME STRATOCU ADVECT ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE...AND THESE MAY EXTEND WEST OF THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR A TRANSITION TO PARTLY SUNNY...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN FURTHER WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL LIGHT FLOW PREVENT DECOUPLING AND WILL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CLOUDIER THAN GFS ONES...AND THUS MET GUIDANCE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN MAV ONES. NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND SEEMS TO BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON TONIGHT. WITH MINS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S...WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR FREDERICK MD TO HARFORD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DETERMINE IF A FROST/FREEZE OR NEITHER IS NECESSARY. FRIDAY...MODIFICATION/MODERATION CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID ATLC HAS XPRNCD WHAT SEEMED LK A NEVERENDING SERIES OF WVS. BUT FOR A CHG THE WX SHOULD BE RLVTLY BENIGN IN THE XTND - NO WINTRY CONCERNS FOR ONE THING. OVERALL UPR LVL FLOW COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY HIGH ZNL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MODERATE SIDE - NEITHER TOO HOT OR COLD...MORE LK WHAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN MID APR. ONE SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO PUSH THRU THE NERN U.S. BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LK A PCPN PRODUCER. THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE ON TUE W/ ANOTHER FROPA. NO COLD TEMPS TO WORRY ABT - HIGHS IN THE L70S...LOWS IN THE U40S/L50S. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH STRATOCU AROUND 3-4K FT POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY TO BWI/DCA THIS AFTERNOON. RISK FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEGINNING THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE XTND PD.
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&& .MARINE...
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HAVE MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SCA FOR TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 20 KT FOR THE LOWER BAY/POTOMAC WHERE SCA IS IN EFFECT. SCA MAY EXPAND FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...AND KEPT HEADLINES THE SAME. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA FOR FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT ON SAT. NO PROBS FORESEEN SUNDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MDZ004>007. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543.
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&& $$ BPP/BAJ/WOODY!

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