Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 150008 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 808 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic for the weekend. Hurricane Jose is presently 1050 miles east of Jacksonville. See National Hurricane Center bulletins for information on Jose.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A weak area of low pressure will pull northeast away from the region overnight, slowly being replaced by surface high pressure by morning, although upper level troughing will linger into Friday. There are some scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two out there this evening, and these will gradually wane during the late evening and overnight hours. Clouds will be tougher to get rid of, but some breaks of clearing will likely develop overnight. These breaks of clearing, combined with light winds and lingering low level moisture from any rain, will lead to some fog development. Density and coverage is still somewhat unclear at this time given cloud cover and nature of today`s rain, but have shown patchy/areas of fog later tonight and into early Friday. Highest threat for more widespread dense fog would be across portions of the central VA piedmont (Charlottesville-Culpeper) and the valleys west of the Blue Ridge (including the Shenandoah Valley). Lows overnight from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure over the area Friday through Saturday night. Isolated showers will be possible Friday afternoon, otherwise quiet weather through Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday around 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will dominate local conditions on Sunday into Monday as east/northeasterly flow settles over our area with Hurricane Jose moving north in the west Atlantic. This should settle conditions for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as instability increases. A cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday, maintaining the chance for showers and thunderstorms over our area. Wednesday and Thursday seems to be dry with a strong high pressure building over our area. Regarding Hurricane Jose, most of the ensemble members keep it moving north, away from the east coast. Just a few members bring the storm closer to land. The National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Hurricane Jose and can be found at the following website: http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through midnight, although a few isolated/scattered showers may bring very brief reductions. Patchy fog will then develop after midnight, with the highest chances of sub-VFR conditions existing at CHO, but also possible at IAD/MRB, and to a lesser extent BWI. Conditions improve to VFR area-wide after 13z or so. VFR conditions expected Friday night through Tuesday with maybe periods of sub-VFR conditions at times due to showers and thunderstorms. Nocturnal/early morning fog possible each day as well.
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&& .MARINE... Winds expected to remain below SCA values tonight through Saturday night. Dry conditions expected Sunday into Tuesday with maybe afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts could reach small craft advisory criteria on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels are running a good 3/4 to 1 ft above astronomical normals. Minor flooding may occur at Straits Point with the nighttime high tide cycle.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM/ABW NEAR TERM...MM/ABW SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...MM/IMR/ABW MARINE...MM/IMR/ABW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM/ABW

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