Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241352 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 952 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INCRSD MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS NOW WELL UP INTO THE 60S IS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OFFSHORE. NOW OUR EYES TURN TO A FAIRLY WEAK LN OF RW OVR ERN OH ASSO W/ A CD FNT. THIS IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE APLCHNS DURG EARLY AFTN AND DEVELOP FURTHER INTO TSRA. TEMPS SHOULD WARM AHD OF THE FNT TO THE 85-90 RNG. THIS WL ALLOW FOR AFTN CAPES TO RISE ABV 1000...BUT THE LO LVL WIND FIELD LOOKS REALLY POOR. SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER..AND SREF SVR WX PARAMETER INDICATES THE BETTER CHC FOR SVR (IF ANY DVLPS) WL BE ACROSS NY/PA. BUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LWX FCST AREA. GIVEN RGEM...GGEM...GFS AND NAM ALL SHOW A MAJORITY OF LOCALES HAVING PRECIP THIS AFTN/EVE...INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHNC AND MAY PUSH THEM TO LOW-END LIKELY LATER TODAY AS CONFIDENCE POTENTIALLY GROWS. WHILE HIGHER POPS COVER SEVERAL HOURS...THIS IS MORE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WITH A 3 HOUR TIME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... THE THREAT OF STORMS WL BE ONGOING MOVG INTO THE TNGT PD IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER AS STATED ABV HELCITY IS WEAK. PULSE SVR IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. AFTRWRDS A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. PTCHY FOG WL BE PSBL AFTR MDNGT ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...ESPECIALLY IF ANY RA FALLS BEFORE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW WITH READINGS IN LOW- MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA. SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS XPCTD AS A FNT MOVES THRU THE MID ATLC. FOR NOW HV VCTS IN SVRL TAFS. LATER TAFS MAY HV TO INDICATE A GRTR THREAT ONCE THE STORMS DRAW CLOSER. TNGT LGT FOG PSBL AT CHO/MRB. VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO ISSUES. && .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTN/TNGT AS A WK CD FNT MOVES E OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN AND ACROSS THE WATERS TNGT. SCT TSTMS WL BE PSBL WHICH COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA DURING THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CHES BAY HAS JUST GONE THRU THE HIGHER OF THE 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...AND THE UPR PTMC IS CURRENTLY. CAUTION STAGE IS WHAT WAS REACHED. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WL NOT BE A CONCERN. BY THE TIME OF THE HHT THE FNT WL HV MOVED THRU THE CWA. WHILE THERE WON`T BE STRONG WRLY WINDS BEHIND IT IT IS QUSTNBL WHETHER MINOR FLD LVLS WL BE REACHED REGARDLESS. SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THIS AFTN/EVE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/KRW/ABW NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW/ABW SHORT TERM...RCM/KRW/ABW LONG TERM...KRW/ABW AVIATION...RCM/KRW/ABW MARINE...RCM/KRW/ABW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW/RCM

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