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527
FXUS61 KLWX 101403
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday as a
slow moving front pushes southeast across the region.
Precipitation chances continue Saturday with yet another frontal
passage, but should improve on Sunday as high pressure moves
into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances along with
warmer temperatures return by the middle of next week as high
pressure pushes offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A frontal boundary stalled south of the area this morning, with
a weak inverted trough noted near the Blue Ridge. Persistent
light showers have now overspread much of the area north of
I-66 as the CAD wedge has set up. South of I-66 and US-48 the
clouds managed to break this morning, allowing for some sunshine
and increase in temps to the low 60s (Harrisonburg to
Fredericksburg). To the north, temps will remain in the 50s
today as cloudy, showery conditions continue. A few
thunderstorms are possible in Central VA and the Central
Shenandoah Valley early to mid afternoon as that area will be
along the instability gradient south of I-64.

Conditions dry out late evening through the early part of the
next. As the upper trough departs eastward overnight, there will
still be some moisture and widespread cloud cover. Noticeably
cooler as temps drop to the 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes
Saturday before pushing into the northeast and eventually
offshore on Sunday. The cold front associated with this system
will push through on Saturday, bringing yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the 60s for
most of the area.

On Sunday it will be drier across the region as we move into the
backside of the aforementioned upper-low. Can`t completely rule
out some showers Sunday, but should be pretty isolated in
nature. Highs again will be in the 60s, perhaps a few degrees
warmer than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday has the highest potential of the next seven days to be dry as
mid level ridging moves overhead and surface high pressure moves
offshore. Temperatures will be seasonable.

Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves
eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather
threat appears to be minimal with richer moisture suppressed closer
to the Gulf Coast, a warm front draped near the area could serve as
a focus for locally heavy rain. Some spread exists in potential
temperatures due to rain and frontal positions, but highs will most
likely run near or below normal.

00Z guidance points toward the trough/low departing east by
Thursday. This could yield a drier day as high pressure builds from
the north. However, another trough will be quickly approaching from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CIGs will drop to IFR at all terminals by late morning, except
for CHO, as a CAD wedge continues to drop south. Expect light
showers to persist, with some reduced visibility between 3-5SM.
A thunderstorm or two possible around CHO, but chances are low
at 15-20pct at this time. Precip comes to an end late this
evening, but low clouds persist through tonight.

Conditions improve to VFR on Saturday, but more showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm are possible with a cold front pushing
through. Winds shift to northeasterly tomorrow before becoming
southerly on Saturday.

No significant weather with high pressure Monday. Sub-VFR ceilings
along with showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday as a
low pressure system approaches.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds have picked up across most of the waters this morning, so
the SCA was started earlier to account for the surge in winds.
Expect east to northeast winds to back to northerly this
evening and tonight.

Winds taper off overnight into Saturday morning. Rain showers
and thunderstorms could impact the waters again today, mainly in
the afternoon. Winds shift to northerly Friday night before
shifting to southerly for the weekend.

Southerly winds gradually increase Monday as high pressure moves
offshore. Advisories may be needed Monday afternoon, continuing
through Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches. Some
thunderstorms are also possible by Tuesday afternoon and
evening.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding expected at high tide this morning at
Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC SW Waterfront. Tidal anomalies
remain elevated through tonight, then drop off by Sunday when
offshore northwest flow kicks in across the area. Could see
additional minor coastal flooding during high tide this evening.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533-
     538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537-
     542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...