-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
666
FXUS61 KLWX 030030
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
830 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to build into the region through
the weekend. High pressure then pushes offshore through much of
next week, bringing an increase in humidity and daily chances
for precipitation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes made to the forecast this evening. Dry conditions
and mostly clear skies expected overnight, with low
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Some patchy fog may be
possible, especially in sheltered river valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across eastern North
America tomorrow, with an embedded shortwave rotating through
the base of the trough just to our north across Upstate NY and
PA. A few showers or even a brief thunderstorm could form
tomorrow afternoon as this disturbance tracks to our north, but
dry air in the mid-levels should keep coverage of showers and
storms extremely low, if any occur at all. The chance is
actually too low at this point to mention in the online forecast
(less than 15 percent). Mostly sunny skies are expected
tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Dewpoints
will drop into the 60s, making it feel noticeably less humid.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected Thursday night.
Temperatures should drop back into the 60s, and some patchy fog
may be possible during the second half of the night.

The aforementioned upper trough will depart to our northeast off
the New England coast on Friday. Large scale subsidence behind
the departing trough will encourage high pressure to build
in at the surface. Sunny skies are expected, with high
temperatures in the mid 80s for most. Dewpoints will continue to
drop, potentially even making it into the 50s by afternoon.
This will make it feel the least humid it has in quite some time.
Clear skies are expected 4th of July evening, with temperatures
in the upper 70s and low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday, a strong longwave trough will continue to pull away
toward the Canadian Maritimes. The influence of a prevailing zone of
high pressure does allow for tranquil weather across the area. High
temperatures on Saturday are likely to top out in the mid/upper 80s,
with overnight lows in the 60s. This comes with lower humidity levels
than what was experienced at the end of June. Eventually heights aloft
are expected to slowly build through the weekend and into early next
week. The net result is a gradual warming/moistening trend which
carries high temperatures to around 90 degrees by Sunday and
Monday. Based on the latest global ensemble guidance, the peak in
this increase in summertime heat comes on Monday. A few solutions
carry high temperatures into the low to perhaps even mid 90s. However,
this will largely depend on cloud cover and the timing/coverage of
any shower and thunderstorm development.

The return of storm chances comes with the uptick in humidity as
southerly flow increases. In response to a slow moving trough back
across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, the opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Given how far this is into the forecast period, any severe component
to these storms is uncertain at this time. Additionally, precipitable
water values increase given the continued deep southerly flow. By
the middle of next week, the parent frontal system is forecast to
be just off to the north and west of the local area. Depending on
when this boundary passes through, a decrease in humidity would be
expected once this front exits.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected through Friday night as high
pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of
today`s frontal passage. Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Thursday and Friday.

High pressure remains over the region over the weekend which will
favor VFR conditions across the area terminals. Thunderstorm chances
(20-30 percent) return by Monday which could lead to brief
restrictions during the afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be out
of the south through Monday with gusts increasing to around 10 knots
each afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Friday
night. Winds should be light and variable today, then light out
of the north to northwest on Thursday and Friday.

Southerly winds prevail through the weekend with wind gusts largely
topping out between 10 and 15 knots. By Sunday night, some southerly
channeling effects are possible which could near Small Craft
Advisory levels across the more southern waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL/KRR
SHORT TERM...CJL/KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL