Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 271858 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle and latter part of next week. A cold front may push through the region at the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...Scattered showers or t-storms expected through early evening in very warm and moist environment with activity dissipating by 01Z or 02Z. Patchy light fog or haze overnight into Sat morning. Guidance shows significant height rises over the region tonight through Sat which should greatly inhibit t-storm coverage Sat but a few pop-up showers still possible mainly northwest part of fcst area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Ridge along the mid-Atlc coast will start shifting east Sat night as tropical disturbance/tropical storm makes landfall on the SC coast. Deep moisture will advect rapidly northward early on Sun as deep layered SSE flow establishes across the mid-Atlc. Showers appear likely Sun through the first half of Memorial Day. Widespread clouds should keep temps down. Could be some heavy rains over srn MD as tropical remnants track across ern NC and sern VA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Cold front approaches from the northwest on Monday as a low pressure system slowly tracks north- northeast along the coast. Surface high pressure briefly builds on Tuesday before cold front moves across the area later that day. The front stalls over the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday... near our area. The front then lifts north as a warm front on Thursday with another cold front moving across our CWA on Friday. There is disagreement on the guidance as timing and location of these systems... so keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms for most of our CWA during this period. High temperatures will be around the 80s and lows around the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Sct t-storms possible between 22z-02z at all terminals. Patchy light fog or haze overnight. Isolated t-storms possible Sat mainly at KMRB. Deeper moisture spreads northward Sun on deep layered SSE flow as tropical disturbance makes landfall on the SC coast. VFR conditions expected during this period. Chance of showers each day may produce sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. && .MARINE...Brought SCA conditions sooner to the lower bay as winds are gusting to 21 knots. Model trends show winds diminishing after 06z tonight. Sub-SCA conditions expected during this period as winds will be below SCA criteria. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/LFR MARINE...IMR/LFR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.