Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281432 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1032 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns for late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure sfc and aloft will continue to dominate the region through Mon although it will start weakening later tonight. This will continue to suppress convective development over much of the region except over the Appalachians mtns where a stray t-storm or two are possible. NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD#8 located southwest of Bermuda at 11AM as indicated in their special tropical wx outlook released at 1015AM. All guidance keep this system far away from our area through the next 72 hrs with no impacts expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Approaching weak front with shortwave will result in slightly warmer and more humid conditions on Monday...but not heat advisory levels. Forcing and greater instability also likely to result in a better chance of t-storms...though think they stay mainly NW of the metro. Some may drift into the metro or fire on boundaries near the metro during the evening. This boundary sags south and weakens on Tuesday and the forcing mostly passes us. Thus overall a lesser chance of t- storms Tuesday with slightly cooler temps...but with the boundary hanging up in central VA these areas may actually have a better shot at storms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect high temperatures to climb to around 90 again Wednesday to end both the month and meteorological summer. See the climo stats below for the summer so far. A cold front dropping into the area may bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms closer to the metro areas Wednesday evening. A showLight winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and Tuesday.er or thunderstorm will remain possible Thursday across southern portions of the area as some models/ensembles are slower with the southward progress of the cold front. Temperatures will take a drop to begin September with highs in the low to mid 80s. Thursday night will provide some of the most comfortable temperatures area has experienced recently. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge...and mid to upper 50s west. Friday should see highs in the lower 80s then rising for the holiday weekend. Fly in the ointment is that the Euro is projecting low pressure moving over the Outer Banks next Saturday night. This model keeps this east of the CWA but holiday travelers should keep an eye on the development in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Chance of t-storms nil at terminals today. Patchy fog mainly inland again tonight then a better risk of mainly inland t-storms on Monday. Something may drift towards metro terminals during the eve. Risk of t-storms looks a little lower Tuesday in the metro and MRB but may be higher CHO where front hangs up. VFR Wednesday. A thunderstorm is possible Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches.
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&& .MARINE... Light winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and Tuesday. Winds below SCA values Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening. && .CLIMATE... Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 27) Site Rank Average Temperature DC 3 80.5 Balt 18 77.3 IAD 3 77.3 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Products...LFR/RCM/Woody!

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