Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161526 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1026 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through the area Wednesday. Brief high pressure returns Thursday followed by another system Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Extensive cloud cover remains through the low-level moisture is trapped between high pressure centered off the northeast coast and warm front over the western Carolinas. Thicker (thinner) clouds expected across the south (northeast) evident by visible imagery and NSSL-WRF synthetic satellite. Most areas remain dry through the afternoon...with just some spotty showers across central VA and the Highlands. Seasonable highs...generally in the low/mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Skies will continue to be cloudy tonight and Tuesday. An upper level short wave will push through the region Tuesday. Have increased PoPs slightly for Tuesday...primarily in likely category although we are on the cusp of categorical and suspect later shifts will trend in that direction. Temperatures are expected to climb well into the 50s on southwesterly flow so the only p-type we`re thinking about is rain. QPF`s should be under an inch. The chance of showers will continue Tuesday night before coming to an end Wednesday as the short wave tracks to the NE. Winter will remain on hiatus. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s...highs Wednesday of 55-60 will be about 15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The latter half of the week and into the weekend will continue to be dominated by long wave troughing out in the western US and long wave ridging along the eastern seaboard. However this does become increasingly convoluted as time goes on. Brief surface ridging will follow the early week frontal system and move over the Mid-Atlantic states for Wednesday night and Thursday. This should lead to dry conditions and mild temperatures, with highs progged right now to be in the 50s. The next system however will quickly amplify in the Plains on Thursday and will push eastward across the region for the end of the week with increasing chances for showers on Friday. Temperatures will still be mild, so there is very little to no threat of wintry precip. Uncertainty grows as pattern becomes more convoluted by the weekend, but next best chance of rain at this time appears to be Sunday as next system makes its approach from the southwest. Temperatures over the weekend will remain mild with highs around 50F. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Plenty of cloud cover today courtesy of high pressure over New England and a stationary boundary over the Carolinas. Ceilings are expected to be in the MVFR range today...possibly dropping to IFR tonight. Rain showers and diminished ceilings are expected Tuesday. Improvement should happen Wednesday. VFR expected Wednesday night through Thursday night under high pressure. Sub-VFR conditions then possible Friday with low clouds and rain showers developing. && .MARINE... Light winds foreseen through midweek. Water temperatures are in the mid 30s. Sub-SCA conditions return for Wednesday night through Thursday night with next chance of Small Craft conditions on Friday with developing southerly flow. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSE PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.