000
FXUS61 KLWX 161859
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
259 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will begin to lift north across central Virginia
tonight, finally lifting northeast of the area on Thursday.
A weak cold front will track through on Thursday before a
stronger cold front arrives on Saturday. High pressure returns
on Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across
Highland County within the past hour. These should generally
move to the east and tend to weaken as they move off of the
higher terrain into more stable air as shown on gridded NUCAPS
data from 1820Z. Convection is expected to dissipate early this
evening with loss of heating. Overnight, there will be an
increase in mid-high level clouds as a warm front begins to
lift north across central VA. A few showers are possible toward
daybreak, but should stay well west of I-81 over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The front will get hunged up across the area tomorrow with warm
advection leading to a thick low overcast and sct-nrms showers
throughout the day, particularly across northern areas. A few
thunderstorms are also possible mainly east of I-95. Additional
showers are possible Wed evening. By late Wed night, precip
chances decrease markedly as warm front lifts north into Pennsylvania.
While there will be showers throughout the day Wed, it won`t be
raining the entire time. On Thu, the weak cold front clears the
area with a clearing trend expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A slow moving cold front crosses the area Friday into Friday night,
bringing scattered to widespread showers. More persistent shower
activity is likely west of the Blue Ridge, with less coverage of
showers to the east. Dry conditions behind the front as winds turn
northwest Saturday morning. A reinforcing front moves through
Saturday afternoon, with breezy conditions developing Saturday
evening into Saturday night. High pressure builds into the region
from the north through early next week. Mostly dry conditions are
likely through Monday of next week, however some guidance does show
low rain chances (20pct) moving into the southern half of the area.
This is due to a wave of low pressure riding along a stalled
boundary to the south. Given the strength and position of the ridge
to our north, we likely remain dry. However, the forecast at 6-7
days remains a bit uncertain, while no hazardous weather is
currently forecast.

Afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s Friday and Saturday drop
slightly to the low to mid 60s Sunday and Monday. Seasonal overnight
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night. Cooler air rushes in
Saturday night, dropping lows to the upper 30s to mid 40s, with near
freezing temperatures in the Alleghenies. Similar, if not slightly
cooler temps for Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Quiet through 12Z Wed. Sct-nmrs showers expected Wed with OVC035
cigs except at KCHO where less clouds are expected. Showers and
low clouds will likely persist through 06Z Thu with improving
conditions expected after that as warm front lifts north of the
area.

A cold front crossing the area Friday into Friday night brings
scattered to widespread showers to all the terminals. While VFR
conditions likely prevail, a period of sub-VFR conditions is
possible when showers move through. Dry and VFR conditions Saturday
with a reinforcing cold front moving through the area. Winds turn
northwest and increase Saturday evening into Sunday where gusts of
20-25 knots are possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Some thunderstorms are possible Wed, but should be non-severe.
Some channeling is possible Wed night and marginal SCA
conditions are possible.

A weak cold front crosses the local waters Friday night into
Saturday as winds remain below SCA criteria at 10-15 knots. A
reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with
northwest winds increasing behind the front. SCA conditions possible
Saturday evening into Sunday across most of the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR