Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 230746 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 346 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WHILE A SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE ME COAST. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. OVERALL...RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE (LT 0.25 INCH) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS LED TO HIGHER AMTS (0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES) IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL AMTS OF UP TO 0.1 INCH EXPECTED IN ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL END FROM NW TO SE TODAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND NRLY WINDS WILL PICK UP. N WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON. EMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH U60S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO L70S IN THE LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE METROS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST THAN THE EAST SUNDAY AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S ACROSS THE SW TO THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MD. THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND SRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS THU WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE THU THROUGH THU EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ECMWF...GFS AND GEFS BECOME MORE APPARENT BY NEXT FRI WITH STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH ECMWF FASTER THAN GFS OR GEFS SHOWING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVING AWAY BY FRI WHILE THE GFS/GEFS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH FROPA NOT UNTIL LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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-SHRA PRESENT NEAR OR AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. PREVAILING VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT DCA/BWI/MTN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SHRA TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BY THISAFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUE. A FEW T-STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF FLYING RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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S WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW AND INCREASE ON THE WATERS SHORTLY AROUND SUNRISE. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS TAPER OFF ON THE MID-UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT HOWEVER SCA GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY AND WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE WATERS. SRLY CHANNELING EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NOT ENOUGH RAIN FELL YESTERDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE FM VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RH`S RECOVER SOME MON BUT STILL CRITICAL AND WINDS STRENGTHEN LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. SOME SHOWERS ON TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MID WEEK BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AREAWIDE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...HAS/LFR MARINE...HAS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...LFR

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