Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 191845 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 245 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the region tonight through Thursday. A dry cold front will move through the area Saturday afternoon bringing fall like weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Showers will continue along and east of the I-95 corridor for the next few hours along a weak confluence zone and in area of upper level difluence on northeast side of a developing cutoff low over the Carolinas. Activity will shift southeast tonight lingering over southern MD counties especially St. Marys where showers could persist into Tuesday. Potential for low clouds and/or fog to develop overnight over the Shenandoah valley where mid-high level clouds are expected to thin out and skies to clear.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will gradually build over the mid-Atlc through Thu leading to drying conditions. The only exception is over St. Marys county where showers could persist along weak confluence zone. Model soundings suggest potential for widespread fog Tue and Wed nights as mid- level subsidence builds in and ground remains moist from today`s rains.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Fairly benign weather pattern late this week and into the weekend as high pressure lingers nearby and precipitation chances remain minimal. Above normal temperatures (with some humidity) forecast through Saturday. Cold front expected this weekend...which will help to lower temperatures and dewpoints as high pressure builds into the area from the north. Limited moisture with frontal boundary looks to keep precip chances rather low.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Fog appears likely at KMRB and KCHO overnight where skies are likely to clear out at some point during the night. Over eastern terminals, low clouds/cigs with no vsby restrictions appear more likely where mid and high level clouds are expected to be hang on. Potential for more widespread fog Tue and Wed nights. VFR conditions expected Thursday through early this weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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Wind gusts to 20kt possible over srn waters due to showers and embedded t-storms, but pressure gradient does not support SCA winds. Winds expected to remain below SCA values Thursday through early this weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding still expected at Annapolis, Strait Points, Alexandria and Washington DC during the next high tide cycle. Coastal flood advisories are in effect.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...MSE/LFR MARINE...MSE/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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