Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 200758 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS STATIONED OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO END THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 07Z...1026MB SFC HIGH OVER CAPE BRETON NOVA SCOTIA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC (1020MB AT HAGERSTOWN). NELY FLOW EAST OF THIS AXIS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BALTIMORE AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE DC AREA. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH ONE FINAL SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER BALTIMORE. MOISTURE HAS RETURNED WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/AROUND 60F WEST (AND AT CHARLOTTESVILLE). TODAY...CLOUDY MORNING WITH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHOULD GET A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SCATTERED (GENERALLY LIGHT) SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER UNDER THE APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AXIS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR SO...MAX TEMPS LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST AS FLOW BECOMES ELY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...AND AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS...MID 60S INLAND...UPR 60S/70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE. MONDAY...SELY FLOW AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE COAST. UPR TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS I-95 AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MID 80S WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WE`VE LOST 23 MINUTES OF DAYLGT. ONE MONTH HENCE WE`LL HV LOST ANOTHER 1 HR 3 MIN. AS I`VE NOTED SVRL TIMES IN DSCNS THIS MONTH THIS HAS NOT SEEMED TO BE A "NRML" MID SUMMER UPR LVL PATTERN...NOR DOES IT APPEAR THAT THERE WL BE ONE DURG THE XTND PART OF THIS FCST. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD RISE BOTH TUE AND WED...INTO THE L90S WED...BUT STILL NOTHING OUT-OF-THE-ORDINARY FOR THE LATTER 3RD OF JUL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A CD FNT WL BE TRACKING INTO THE RGN THU. SWRN U.S RDG WL BE INTENSIFYING W/ TROFFING DVLPG OVR ERN CANADA AND DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. AHD OF THE FNT TSTM CHCS WHOULD BE INCRSG WED AFTN/EVE. AT THIS MOMENT SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW DURG MIDWK. THE WK LOOKS TO END ON A HIGH NOTE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FNT. FRI SHOULD SEE CLRG SKIES..PERHAPS DWPTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LM80S...LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LESS THAN 10 KT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY (NELY TODAY...ELY TONIGHT...SELY MONDAY). SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TERMINALS WITH A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ON MONDAY. GNRLY VFR CONDS XPCTD MON NGT AND TUE. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL TUE AFTN THRU MIDDAY WED...THEN CHCS XPCTD TO INCRS AHD OF A CD FNT FOR LATER WED INTO THU. && .MARINE... SUB 15 KT ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY (NELY TODAY...ELY TONIGHT...SELY MONDAY). SCA CONDS MAY BE XPRNCD ON THE WIDER PARTS OF THE WATERS WED NGT AND ERLY THU AHEAD OF A CD FNTL PASSAGE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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