Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 190044
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
844 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern United
States this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected to track
north off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight through Wednesday.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov
for the latest on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A ridge of surface high pressure is in place this evening across
the northeastern US with Hurricane Jose well offshore of Cape
Hatteras. This has led to low level northeasterly flow across
the region. Isolated showers in far outer bands from Jose
earlier this afternoon have dissipated, but scattered to broken
clouds remain. For tonight, low level moisture is expected to
continue to move into the region, increasing the likelihood for
a combination of low clouds and fog. Initially may see patchy
fog develop in some locations east of the Blue Ridge, but as
pressure gradient increases as Jose moves northward, increasing
low level wind field becomes more favorable for low stratus
instead. For areas west of the Blue Ridge, further removed from
the wind field, fog may be more prevalent, however low stratus
possible here as well. Additional light showers are also
possible close to the Chesapeake, mainly towards morning, as
additional bands from Jose approach. Lows tonight generally from
58-68F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Jose will pass by well to our east Tuesday before moving well
off to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Outer bands of showers from Jose will approach areas near and
east of Interstate 95 into portions of north-central Maryland
Tuesday. The best chance for showers will be near the Bay. Any
rain amounts will be light across these areas.
Elsewhere...subsidence from a large scale upper-level ridge
overhead and behind the tropical system will allow for dry
conditions along with some sunshine. Max temps will range from
the mid to upper 70s near the Bay where more clouds and possible
showers are expected to the lower 80s across most other
locations where more breaks of sunshine are expected.

Jose will move well off to the north and east Tuesday night
while surface high pressure builds overhead. Dry conditions are
expected during this time.

Another upper-level disturbance will build in from the west
later Wednesday into Wednesday night while weak surface high
pressure remains overhead. There may be a couple showers across
central Virginia into the Potomac Highlands later Wednesday into
Wednesday evening...but any instability will be limited so much
of the time will be dry. Elsewhere...dry conditions are
expected along with more warm conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Benign conditions expected in the long term period
as upper level ridge/surface high pressure builds over our area
Thursday into Monday. Maybe some showers over the ridges, but
looking minimal. So, looking at an extended period of dry
conditions and high temperatures near 80 of in the low to mid
80s. Remnants of Jose might be lingering off of the Mid-
Atlantic/New England coast, away from us, and Maria could be
somewhere in the west Atlantic, but it is too early to tell.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR this evening will see an overall downward trend as low
stratus and patchy fog develop. Expecting ceilings at our
central/eastern TAF sites (IAD, DCA, BWI, MTN) to drop to
primarily MVFR, although some localized IFR is possible. At
MRB/CHO, where fog may be more of a concern, IFR or sub-IFR is
more likely. Low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate
Tuesday, but a few showers are possible across the eastern
terminals. Even across these areas much of the day should turn
out dry with the steadier rain remaining off to the east.

High pressure will build overhead for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out during the
overnight and early morning hours.

VFR conditions expected Thursday into Saturday with high
pressure built into our area.

&&

.MARINE...
Jose will move north offshore tonight and pass by well to our
east Tuesday before moving off to the north and east Tuesday
night through Wednesday. A strengthening gradient will allow for
winds to strengthen through tonight into Tuesday. Will continue
with the Small Craft Advisory for the middle portion of the
Maryland Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River
tonight...and all of the waters Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
The strongest winds will be across the southern Maryland
Chesapeake Bay Tuesday with gusts around 30 knots likely.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the middle portion
of the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River Tuesday night and it
may need to be extended Wednesday for portions of the waters.
High pressure will build overhead Wednesday night.

No small craft advisory expected between Thursday and
Saturday due to low wind speeds over our area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An onshore flow has led to elevated water levels around one half
to three quarters of a foot above normal. The elevated water
levels will continue through Tuesday morning as the onshore flow
strengthens. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
Straits Point in St. Marys county during this time. Water levels
will be close to minor flood thresholds in Annapolis and
Washington DC during the high tide cycle late tonight into
Tuesday morning.

Model spread remains high for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Water
may be piled up near the Bay from Jose...but a northerly flow
should push water out of the Bay. Will continue with elevated
water levels in the forecast with caution stages being met...but
confidence in forecast is low and minor flooding cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/MM/IMR
MARINE...BJL/MM/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



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