Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 191518 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1018 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. A BKN/OVC STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BECAUSE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND...BUT THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX. THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP. && .MARINE... NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BJL/BPP AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS

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