Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 140732
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary rest of the Carolinas. Weak high pressure
will hold over the area through mid week. A weak frontal
boundary will move into the Mid Atlantic late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over PA while a
frontal boundary has become stationary over the Carolinas. That
is providing the focus for showers/thunderstorms along the
mountains of wesern NC. Question will be how quickly that
moisture/convection is able to work north into our forecast
area. Believe it won`t be very quickly, although the sky will
experience increasing cloud cover as the day progresses. That
said - the best chances of precipitation in the LWX forecast
area will be in central VA/the Highlands.

Highs today will be in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CLoudy skies tonight courtesy of moisture advection on WSW flow.
There is a big difference in PoPs between the MET and MAV, with
the MET the more bullish. The HRRRX is portraying scattered
activity primarily across the southern part of our forecast
area. This is the tact we`ll take - with chance PoPs over the
south/slight chance north.

Lows mainly in the upper 60s, except warmer in the cities/along
the Bay.

Chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Tuesday as a short wave
moves through the region. The first taste of tropical activity
in the western Atlantic - Gert, will stay well offshore. Highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday should be dry as high pressure
works into the region. Wednesday should see temperatures climb
into the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Seasonably warm to hot summer weather is expected for the latter
half of the week, with some cooling heading into the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure overhead Wednesday night will give way to
the next low pressure system that will approach and move across the
area in the Thursday-Friday time-frame. This will bring an increased
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along with more humid
and warm to hot temperatures as highs may approach or exceed 90F.

High pressure and some cooling temperatures/lower humidity will then
build in behind the front for the weekend with highs dropping back
off into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR Monday through Wednesday. Best chance for showers/
thunderstorms will be near CHO.

Predominantly VFR is expected Wednesday night through Friday with
potential for brief periods of reductions in isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

No problems foreseen on the waters through midweek.

Sub-SCA conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday with a
developing light southerly flow. South winds will increase Thursday
night and Friday ahead of a frontal system, and Small Craft Advisory
conditions are possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM



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