Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261921 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 321 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SFC OBS AT 18Z SHOW A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE LAND AROUND 10-15KTS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE IS GIVING PATCH FOG IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BECOME ALMOST CENTERED OVER THE MASON-DIXON LINE. ANY PATCHY FOG FROM TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH MAX SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 15C IN FULL SUN ON A NE WIND...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS SATURDAY REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SPOTS WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEG F OVER NORMAL VALUES. THERE WILL BE STILL A N/NE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE MID 80S...WHICH IS WHAT I WOULD EXPECT WITH FULL SUN...H85 TEMPS 15C...AND A WESTERLY WIND. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT NE...BUT MAY GUST 10-15 KTS DURING MAX SOLAR HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A CLEAR AND CALM SAT NIGHT...WITH ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE GULF COAST LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT...BUT MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THAN ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SUNDAY NIGHT THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CHC OF OVERRUNNING RAIN TO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE 12Z GFS HOLDS OFF THE CHC OF RAIN UNTIL MONDAY. SO THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND EVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE POTL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DEFINATELY BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT NO MATTER WHAT MODEL SOLN/SOLNS YOU CHOOSE. THE GREATEST CHC OF PCPN FOR THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE LOW EXITS OFF CAPE HATTERAS TUESDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN THE VA PIEDMONT AND SHEN VALLEY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. POTL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KCHO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ELSWHERE VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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FAIR MARINE WEATHER WITH NO HEADLINES. NEXT CHC FOR SCA WINDS WILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PULLS OFF HATTERAS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEE NEAR TERM...LEE SHORT TERM...LEE LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...LEE MARINE...LEE

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