Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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293 FXUS61 KLWX 260126 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off of the Delmarva will move slowly northeastward away from the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region Thursday night and dissipate on Friday. A cold front will pass through the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light rain will continue overnight along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay along inverted trof north of weakening sfc low. West of the Blue Ridge, increasing mid-level subsidence overnight will lead to areas of dense fog. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Coastal low pressure will be off the Ocean City MD coast Wednesday morning. Rain will still be around the region in the morning as wrap- around moisture moves around the storm system. Winds will become NW Wednesday however dry air will take time to move into the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east throughout the day. Temps will climb to near 70 Wednesday. Ridging is expected across the region Wed night and dry conditions are expected. Low-level moisture is expected Wed night and fog is likely into Thursday morning. Southerly flow increases Thursday and temps rebound into the 80s by afternoon. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front should slide across our region Friday before stalling across central or eastern portions of Virginia later in the day then inching northward as a weak warm front Friday night. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the period with high temperatures remaining on the warm side. On Saturday, high pressure will be to our southeast with a front now along the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures will remain warm with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly across the northern half of our region. By Sunday into Sunday night, the high to the southeast will break down with the front meandering across the northern half of our region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will become more prominant, mainly Sunday night into Monday due to the ridge breaking down. An increasing southerly wind will usher in warmer and more humid air to help fuel showers and thunderstorms later Monday into Monday evening. A strong cold front should works its way eastward across the region Monday night. Gusty westerly winds and drier and cooler air will filter into the region Tuesday behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from the west. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR conditions will continue through tonight as low-level moisture from low pressure continues to influence the terminals. -RA and DZ are expected with variable fog which may reduce conditions to LIFR tonight. Uncertainty exists in the timing of reduced vsbys due to FG overnight and therefore kept most terminals at 3SM overnight. IFR conditions continue into Wed morning. Dry air will take time to bring terminals to VFR Wed so thinking MVFR will likely stick around for most of the morning. Winds begin as NE this afternoon and will become NW by Wednesday. Winds become S Wednesday night into Thursday. BR/FG expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning and flight restrictions are possible. Vfr conditions Friday through Saturday. Mvfr conditions in any isolated shower or thunderstorm. Mvfr to ifr conditions Saturday night in shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly near MRB, IAD, BWI and MTN terminals. Winds southwest 5 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to diminish this evening with only the upper Chesapeake Bay seeing SCA winds. These should drop off after midnight. A southerly flow will develop Wednesday and the southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday into Thursday night. No marine hazards expected Friday through Saturday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds southwest around 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The flow should gradually turn northerly tonight into Wednesday as the low moves away from the area. Water levels should begin to decrease during this time...though minor coastal flooding will remain possible through tonights and tomorrow morning tide cycles at the most sensitive sites. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-531. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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