Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 120121 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 921 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND LOWER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BUT STILL MAY HOLD ONTO SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LIGHT NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE AT CHO...BUT REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE. LIKELY HOLD ONTO VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THIS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A BKN-OVC DECK NEAR CHO FRIDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AT CHO AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MVFR AND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOWER MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 20-30 KT WINDS IN/NEAR SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SCA TO OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING A SOLID FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AT APAM2 BUT STILL IN MINOR FLOOD. 1 FT ANOMALY WILL BRING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO BALTIMORE AREA AS WELL. HAD TO ADD IN AREAS ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DECREASE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA AND SW DC WATERFRONT FOR THEIR HIGH TIDES IN THE 10 PM - MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR HARFORD COUNTY/HAVRE DE GRACE. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOMALY TO DECREASE BEFORE HIGH TIDE. BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SOLOMONS BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NW WIND WILL ALLOW ANOMALY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011- 014. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ013. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536- 538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BPP/HAS MARINE...BPP/HAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP

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