Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 102009
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will slide by south of the area through
Monday. A low pressure system will cross the lower Great Lakes
on Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the region. High
pressure will build overhead Wednesday with another low
pressure area approaching from the west on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds have been on the decrease this afternoon with sunshine
making an appearance this afternoon. As clouds eroded, winds
began to increase out of the west as expected, gusting 20 to 25
mph at times. Temperatures this afternoon are in the low to mid
30s in our western zones, upper 30s to near 40 degrees
elsewhere.

A weak shortwave will pass just to our north tonight bringing an
increase in clouds, but not much precipitation with it. Some
areas in the favored upslope locations could see snow showers
overnight, but only minor accumulations likely. Low temperatures
will be a bit tricky as how low they go will be dependent on
the amount of cloud cover and how quickly those clouds move out
by morning. Those locations with snow remaining on the ground,
and are able to clear, could see temperatures drop well in to
the 20s. All that being said, feel most everyone will dip in to
the mid to upper 20s, except near the city centers where
temperatures near the freezing mark are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave will exit to our east Monday morning, with
clearing skies in its wake. Weak high pressure will move in from
the west, keeping winds light, and bringing mostly sunny skies.
This ridge will quickly move through our area, turning winds out
of the south by Monday afternoon. This will allow temperatures
to moderate a bit, topping out in the low to mid 40s. High
clouds will start to stream overhead during the afternoon hours
ahead of the next approaching shortwave over the lower Great
Lakes.

A stronger shortwave (compared to tonight) will near our area
late Monday night in to Tuesday morning. The associated surface
low pressure will pass to our north, dragging a cold front
through the area during the day on Tuesday. Dynamics appear
somewhat favorable with strong mid-level vorticity advection
and an upper jet nearby. Add to that low-level isentropic
upglide looks possible. Model guidance continues to keep the
bulk of the moisture north of the Mason Dixon line, with
upslope snow looking very likely Tuesday morning.

Temperature profiles hint at the possibility of light mixed
wintry precipitation along the northern portions of our CWA,
particularly near the MD/PA border. That being said, most of
the moisture and lift will remain to the north, so do not expect
much in the way of accumulation. The best chance for
accumulating snowfall will be along and west of the Allegheny
Front through early Tuesday afternoon, where advisory criteria
snow looks possible.

On the heels of this shortwave is another stronger mid-level
trough which will help push a cold front through the region,
bringing strong cold air advection in its wake and strong/gusty
northwesterly winds. Wind direction will be favorable for
continued upslope snow and snow squall potential. Temperatures
at the surface and aloft do not seem too supportive of snow
squalls making much impact east of the mountains. The
combination of strong gusty winds and the cold air filtering in,
wind chills may drop below zero over the western ridges of
Allegheny Front. Tuesday night, temperatures will fall in to the
teens across our western zones, lower 20s elsewhere, and the middle
20s in the metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A highly amplified upper level flow pattern with east coast
troughing will result in a wintry pattern through Friday. Wednesday
will be blustery and cold, with strong winds possible as low
pressure pulls away from Maine. High temperatures may fail to crack
the freezing mark across a large part of the area. With a slightly
faster exit to the upper trough, flurries are looking less likely on
Wednesday. Weak surface ridging will relax the winds by Wednesday
night, but lows will be in the teens and 20s.

There`s some model spread in timing on the next clipper system which
will arrive sometime between late Wednesday night and Thursday
evening. While the best chance for snow will be along the upslope
areas, it`s not out of the question some light snow could spread
east of the mountains as well, particularly near the Pennsylvania
border. The next, sharper shortwave trough will arrive on Friday,
prolonging chances for upslope snow. Instability through the snow
growth zone could allow snow showers to move east of the mountains
as well, although surface temperatures will likely rise above
freezing at lower elevations.

The upper level pattern will break down to more progressive flow
next weekend. Surface high pressure will arrive on Saturday and
temperatures will rise closer to normal. There`s still a large
amount of uncertainty regarding the next frontal system which may
arrive late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through Monday
as weak high pressure traverses the area. Gusty winds this
afternoon will subside by this evening, remaining light and
westerly through Monday. An clipper system will pass to the
north Monday night in to Tuesday, bringing the possibility of
brief flight restrictions along and to the north of MRB/BWI/MTN.
Behind a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, gusty northwesterly
winds will overtake the terminals in to Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night, gusting 25 to 30 knots.

Overall VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through
Friday. W/NW winds could gust over 30 kt on Wednesday. There are
a couple disturbances which could bring snow showers Thursday
and Friday, but impacts are uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds over much of our waters today will subside this
evening, with the exception of the open waters to the south
where an SCA will remain in effect overnight. Weak high pressure
move through on Monday will bring light winds. Ahead of an
approaching cold front Monday night and Tuesday, winds may reach
SCA level, with SCA likely behind the front Tuesday afternoon
and night with strong gusty northwesterly flow. Gale conditions
look possible behind the front, and through Tuesday night.

Strong winds will continue into Wednesday behind departing low
pressure. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely, and gales are
possible early in the day. High pressure will bring lighter winds by
late Wednesday night. Low pressure will cross near the area on
Thursday, but winds may not increase appreciably at the surface
until a second disturbance moves through on Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BKF
NEAR TERM...BKF
SHORT TERM...BKF/DHOF
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/BKF
MARINE...ADS/BKF



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