Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 200136 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the area tonight. The
boundary will stall out to the south later Saturday. The
boundary will return north as a warm front into our area late
Sunday before a stronger cold front passes through from the
west Monday. High pressure will briefly return for Tuesday
before another cold front impacts the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and isold t-storms still ongoing at this time
mainly across ncntrl MD and nrn VA. With sfc cdfnt still north
of the Mason-Dixon line and some instability left am forced to
keep chance of showers through the rest of the night with an
even slight chance of a t-storm. The chances are significantly
lower south of I-66 where this area will be removed from
strongest forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front will stall south of the area Saturday, and possibly
remain there well into Sunday. Onshore flow will develop,
leading to cloudier and cooler conditions. Model guidance
differs on the thickness of cloud cover and thus temperatures.
Have high temperatures on either side of 70 both days, but it
could be cooler if thick, low clouds develop.

Precipitation chances will be limited for Saturday through
Sunday morning. There is a better chance of showers across
western parts of the area due to upslope and overrunning flow.
Depending on the position of the warm sector, thunderstorms
could also develop Saturday in Highland/Pendleton Counties.
Should any of this activity try to move eastward, it will
quickly weaken in the stable airmass.

A low level jet will increase ahead of an approaching cold front
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. It`s uncertain how much the
warm front lifts back north, but nevertheless, forcing and
moisture will be there for increasing chances of rain,
especially during the second half of Sunday night. There could
be a rumble or two of thunder with elevated instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region Monday bringing increased
chances of thunderstorms that could produce heavy downpours.

Dry air returns with a separate area of high pressure building in
from the west Monday night through Tuesday.

A low pressure system over the lower Great Lakes will intensify as
it meanders eastward Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There is
a chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two as pieces of
energy rotate around the main storm system.

A breezy and dry day expected Thursday, mainly to the east of the
Potomac Highlands, with high pressure building in from the west. A
few rain showers are possible in the Potomac Highlands.

A piece of upper level energy could bring a chance for a few showers
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Sct showers and isold t-storms will remain possible overnight.
Prob at any specific airport is too low to warrant any tempo
groups. Better chance of showers appears to be at BWI.

Onshore flow will develop Saturday through Sunday. The marine
air will increase the chances for low clouds...especially later
Saturday night and Sunday. Models differ on if MVFR clouds form
Saturday, so have placed this possibility in a SCT group
(except CHO where there is better agreement). More low clouds
are likely Sunday night along with increasing chances for
rain ahead of a cold front.

IFR conditions possible at all terminals Monday. Winds
southwest becoming northwest 10 knots. VFR conditions Monday
night and Tuesday. Winds northwest 5 knots Monday night becoming
southeast 5 knots Tuesday. MVFR conditions Tuesday night with a
chance of showers. Winds south becoming west 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will pass through the waters late tonight. The
pressure surge with the cold front will cause north to northeast
winds behind the boundary to gust around 20 knots. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters later tonight into
Saturday morning. Have extended the SCA into the afternoon for
much of the Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac, as the
pressure gradient looks strong enough to keep winds elevated.
Wind fields should decrease Saturday night.

The onshore flow will continue through Sunday before turning
southerly Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters
Sunday night.

The front will cross the area Monday, with the gusty wind
threat decreasing. Lighter winds Monday night through Tuesday
night with high pressure.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow will develop this weekend, turning southerly by
Sunday night. Water levels will increase, with anomalies
supporting a minor coastal flood threat at Annapolis and Straits
Point by Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No records were set today. Cooler wx tomorrow and into early
next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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