Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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867 FXUS61 KLWX 191907 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 307 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area through Friday morning. Low pressure will track east across north carolina friday night before turning up the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. upper level low pressure will persist along the mid-atlantic coast saturday night through monday night. High pressure then builds overhead through tuesday night before shifting offshore.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 2pm...1021mb MSLP is spread across the southern Mid- Atlantic. Upper level low pressure is over nrn new england per water vapor imagery. A 1024mb surface high will build southeast over the area through Friday morning. Stratus clouds have slowly transition to fair cu over the past several hours. Subsidence will clear skies out with sunset. Near calm, clear skies, and residual surface moisture will result in at least valley fog after midnight tonight. Minima tonight mid to upper 40s inland tonight, low to mid 50s near shore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level trough tracks east across the Midwest states Friday into Friday night. Surface low pressure develops over NC Friday night reaching the northern outer banks during Saturday morning. An east wind will develop across the CWA Friday night with subtropical moisture converging ahead of the upper low. 100 POPs spread east across the CWA through the night. Bulk of rain from this event falls Friday night with widespread moderate rain over the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Moderate rain continues east of Interstate 95 Saturday morning. Wrap around NEly flow keeps clouds and light rain across the area into Saturday evening. Total QPF 0.5 inch along mason- dixon line to 1.5-2 inches over central VA with 0.75 to 1.25 inches between. Will need to monitor eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, but this should be just a soaking rain with no flood hazards. The low clouds keep maxima low, around 60 degrees. North wind and clouds as upper trough enters the area Saturday night. Rain should generally taper off through the night. Minima upper 40s inland to low 50s near shore.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A slow moving upper-level low will spiral about just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of next week while slowly weakening. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon during daytime heating and aided instability from the nearby upper low. But as the low weakens and pulls east Tuesday into Wednesday, gradual height rises should squash any showers leading to a drying and warming trend. Upper-level ridging will build in the wake of the departing upper low with a surface high establishing itself off the southeast coast for the second part of next week. This should lend to a more summer like pattern with warmer and more humid air and pop up showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue through this evening as high pressure builds over the area with light and variable flow. Clear and nearly calm conditions will result in at least valley fog late tonight through sunrise Friday. VFR then rest of Friday with light SEly flow developing. Widespread rain spreads east Friday night with moderate rain and IFR conds expected for KCHO and into DC Metros early Saturday morning. NEly flow and light rain then lingers across the area into Saturday evening as low pressure moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Sub-VFR possible in lingering showers under upper level low pressure Saturday night into Sunday night. Winds will be northerly around 10 knots Sunday into Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Light north winds through the evening as high pressure builds from the northwest. SEly flow develops Friday behind the high. Low pressure passes south Friday night, turning up the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. NEly flow increases to SCA range late Friday night, lingering into Saturday night. Northerly channeling behind departing low pressure to the east and approaching high pressure from the west could result in Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts lingering over at least portions of the waters through Sunday.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...BAJ/DFH MARINE...BAJ/DFH

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