000
FXUS61 KLWX 151851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIXING IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
NORTHEAST MARYLAND. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THOSE LOCALES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 70S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
OVER MOST LOCALES. MOST OF VIRGINIA AND METRO AREAS WILL BE CAPPED
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET MOST LOCALES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT EDGES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MOST LOCALES WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY A FEW 50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. WILL FOCUS ALL POPS OUT THAT WAY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL
BREAKS STILL POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST WITH 70S TO NEAR 80
ELSEWHERE. SIDED TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY SNAKING BACK UP
THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAXIMA IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

WITH FRONT SAGGING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO FRIDAY...WILL FOCUS
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF ON THE CWA WITH MAXIMA POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED REST OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEST NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES ON
THURSDAY MOST AREAS WITH SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
BUT NOT LOWER THAN MVFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE WEEK-WEEKEND PERIOD. WITH BOUNDARY FAIRLY
CLOSE...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THURSDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE WEEK AND REMAINS
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WINDS MAY CREEP UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. LEVELS PEAKED BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT BOTH ANNAPOLIS
AND BALTIMORE. WESTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL PUT AN
END TO ELEVATED LEVELS ALL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/KRW
MARINE...BPP/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW