Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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476 FXUS61 KLWX 190800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern United States through early next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected to track north off the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday. Refer to the National Hurricane Center`s website for the latest on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A stratus layer has been moving westward from the ocean and is now over the I-95 corridor. Widespread low clouds are also evident west of the Blue Ridge. Regional radars show far outer rain bands from Hurricane Jose reaching the MD eastern shore and the DE coastline. These could reach St. Marys and Calvert counties and the Chesapeake Bay this morning. Do not think they will reach the I-95 corridor and Will be likely lowering POPs this morning and keep them for the areas mentioned above as latest NHC track on Jose has trended a bit eastward. Closest approach to St. Marys county is this afternoon a little over 300 miles to the ESE. There could be a few showers that pop up over the higher terrain later this afternoon but cvrg will be isolated if anything. Low clouds will gradually erode through the late morning with skies becoming clear by early evening. Some patchy fog is possible over the valleys west of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Ridge of high pressure will be gradually strengthening over the region Wed through the weekend keeping generally warm and dry conditions. Models, however, do show a shortwave-trough over the OH valley weakening as it approaches the Appalachians. These could result in a few diurnal showers over the mtns. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A firm ridge of high pressure will ensure that our region remains dry with warm temperatures Friday through Monday. A stray shower or two can`t ruled out over the highest ridges of the Potomac Highlands due to daytime heating. High temperatures could be about 10 degrees above average for this third week of September. Highs ranging from near 80 in the western ridges and along the coastal waters of the Chesapeake Bay to the middle 80s elsewhere. Remnants of Jose could still linger off of the mid-Atlantic Coast or somewhere south of southern New England and the tropical system, Maria, may try to move northward from near the Bahama Islands and be somewhere in the western Atlantic. There are still uncertainties with both tropical features. Check out the National Hurricane Center`s website on both features. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR cigs this morning in stratus lifting later this morning. Skies clear tonight but patchy dense fog could develop at the usual sites like KCHO and KMRB. VFR conditions Friday through Monday. Winds generally northeast around 5 knots each afternoon, then light and variable each night. && .MARINE... Guidance has trended weaker with winds over the Chesapeake Bay and show the winds peaking this morning before they start diminishing this afternoon. No need for gale warnings. Winds should drop below SCA Wed afternoon if not a little sooner. No marine hazards expected Friday through Monday. Winds northeast 5 to 10 knots each afternoon, then northeast around 5 knots each night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding expected at Straits Point over the next several high tide cycles. CF.Y has been extended. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531- 539-542. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534- 537-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.