Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 280900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will move offshore today. Upper energy from a large
low pressure system over the upper midwest will move into the
region Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a deepening surface
low that moves across the area Wednesday night through Thursday.
High pressure will return to the region Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

As of 3am, a 977mb surface low is over SD with an upper trough axis
over the 4-corners area. A 1025mb surface high is centered over
eastern NC. Thin cirrus and decoupled winds have allowed temps to
drop to the mid to upper 20s inland with low to mid 30s nearshore
and most mountain locations. This looks to be the last subfreezing
weather for the rest of the work week.

The SW CONUS trough will eject NE to the Midwest through tonight as
a new trough digs across the intermountain west. This will keep the
northern Great Plains low in place into Tuesday before it drifts
east across the Great Lakes through the rest of the work week.

Increasing/thickening clouds today as high pressure shifts offshore.
A south flow develops and increases through tonight. Maxima
generally mid 50s under mid-level clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Mild and turbulent Tuesday through Wednesday night with low pressure
persisting over the north-central CONUS and a powerful jet streak
overhead. Two bouts of a low level jet occur as shortwaves pass to
our west, one late tonight/Tuesday and the second on Wednesday. Day
3 marginal outlook from SPC seems warranted as a SWly jet of 50 to
60 knots crosses.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The continued lack of cold air is the big story in the extended
part of the forecast. A broad upper low looks to set up over
eastern Canada while surface high pressure builds into the Mid
Atlantic. Expect tosee a return to the dry weather which has
dominated area weather for the past several weeks. Highs will be
around 50 Thurs-Sat with lows in the 30s.

The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a warm
front moves through the region. Again temperatures will be in the
upper 40s/lower 50s so p-type will be of the liquid variety.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

High clouds thicken to mid-level through tonight. Rain showers
develop late tonight across DC metros with gusts possible.  Second
round of gusty showers Wednesday.

Outisde of potential morning fog VFR conditions expected Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

South winds increase today with SCA for all waters midday through
Tuesday. Jet of strong winds in low levels Tuesday may warrant gale
warning. SCA expected to continue through at least Thursday.

SCA may be needed on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

South winds today through midweek will bring higher water levels and
possibly flooding conditions as early as Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



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