Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 120733
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure is positioned over Quebec while a warm front is
draped along the Mason-Dixon Line. The high will slowly drift
eastward while the front moves to the south. A cold front will
push into the Mid Atlantic Sunday night followed by a return to
high pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

An area of showers has drifted onto the eastern shore. Mid
Atlantic has moved into a damming-type situation as high
pressure over southern Quebec is providing low level easterly
winds into the forecast area. The low level moisture flow will
persist throughout the day, so little to no sunshine is expected
east of the Blue Ridge. No widespread rainfall is expected, just
patchy light rain and drizzle. Highs 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Because of the position of the high to the northeast don`t
expect to see much of the sun in the short term. Mid Atlantic
will continue to experience plenty of trapped moisture in the
form of low clouds. Some improvement may be possible by late
Saturday, although history has shown that clearing may have to
wait until Sunday when the cold front from the west draws
closer. In spite of the cloud cover much of the time it will be
dry, only light rain and drizzle will be possible.

Highs 65-70 Friday, mid 70s Saturday. Lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Strong mid-upper level ridge over the southeast and southern
mid-Atlantic will move east on Sun as a strong shortwave-trough
moves across the Great Lks Sun into Mon. An associated cdfnt
will cross the area Sun evening with sct showers along and just
behind frontal passage. Cool fall weather will follow in its
wake as high pressure from the northern Rockies builds
southeastward. Highs will be generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Extensive cloud cover expected today through Saturday.
Today/tonight will see ceilings at IFR/low MVFR levels. This may
continue at least at MVFR levels thorugh Friday with some
improvement possible Saturday.

Cdfnt will be crossing the area Sun evening with a few showers
expected.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA in effect for all waters today/this evening due to easterly
winds, continuing tonight for the lower Potomac and Bay south of
Pooles Island.

Small craft advzy conditions likely Sun into Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Water levels are expected to rise later today everywhere due to
onshore flow with minor coastal flooding at most locations for
the next several days.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

The NWS 88D Sterling radar (KLWX) will be down during the day
from 7 AM through 5 PM through Saturday this week. This is for
nationally scheduled maintenance on the radome. Our surrounding
88D radars as well as FAA terminal radars will be operational
during this downtime.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ535-536-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/LFR



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