Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161434 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1034 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE COAST...W/ SOME SHOWERS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY CONTINUING TO SPREAD ALONG THE ATLC COASTLINE FROM FL TO NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER JET SPREADS OUT A BIT FURTHER WEST...WHICH IS WHY PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUD DECKS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND WHY WE HAVEN`T YET CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A GOOD TIER LOWER TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...W/ A LIGHT AND STEADY NWLY BREEZE REINFORCING MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY. THE LACK OF A COMPLETE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO GET OUR HIGH TEMPS INTO THE M80S FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND L80S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE M-U50S FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE L60S WILL COVER THE ERN HALF. PREV DISC...WL HV A RELATIVELY GOOD RADL COOLING NGT TNGT UNDER BLDG HIPRES AS SKIES MOCLR AND WNDS DCPLG. MIN-T ON THE COOLER END OF GDNC TO ACCT FOR THIS BIAS AND DEWPTS IN THE 50S...AND MAYBE EVEN UPR 40S IN THE MTNS! && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THU WL BE A QUIET DAY WXWISE AS HIPRES CONTS TO BLD OVER THE MID ATLC. IT/LL BE OVHD /OR MORE PRECISELY OVER PA/ BY THU NGT. ONLY WRINKLE WUD BE S/WV ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE RETREATING H5 TROF AXIS. THAT MAY ACCOUNT FOR A FEW MORE CU DURING THE DAYTIME...BUT THINK AMS STILL MUCH TOO DRY TO SUPPORT DIURNAL SHRA. MAXT QUITE SIMLR TO WED. MIN-T WL BE A BIT WARMER AS DEWPTS RECOVER IN WK WAA BY THU NGT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THAT WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS OUR PLEASANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MORE NORMAL HUMIDITY. THE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER TROFFING AT 500MB AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SE WILL SLOWLY RETURN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY THRU THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NW WNDS ARND 10 KT...AND MAYBE A FEW SLGTLY HIER GUSTS. DIURNAL CU WL DVLP W/ BASES 050-060. BOTH WNDS AND CLDS WL DSPT W/ THE SETTING SUN TNGT. HIPRES OVR THE RGN THU-THU NGT. VFR. ONCE AGN XPCTG SCT DIURNAL CU CLDS. NW WNDS NEAR 5 KT DURING THE DAY...DIMINISHING AT NGT. LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THRU TUE EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IN ANY TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP. && .MARINE... THE SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS UNDERWAY. WRF GDNC MORE EMPHATIC THAN SYNOP SCALE GDNC IN SUGGESTING INCRSD NWLY MRNG WND ON THE WATERS...MAINLY IN THE BAY. GOING FCST DEPICTS THAT...AND WL MAINTAIN IT AND THE SCA IN PLACE FOR MOST WATERS. NWLY FLOW CONTS THRU THU...BUT AT LESSER SPDS. HIPRES CRESTS NEAR THE WATERS THU NGT...FOR LGT/VRBL WNDS. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO MARINE CONCERNS FRI THRU TUE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. && $$ UPDATE...GMS PREV DISCUSSION...CAS/HTS

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