Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 221901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2PM...UPR LOW OVER IN/OH WITH 1007MB SFC LOW N OF VERMONT.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...HAVING RECENTLY CLEARED
TOLEDO AND INDIANAPOLIS. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE WANED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED/GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
FROM SRN MD BAY WATERS TO THE ERN SHORE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM W/SW OF
THE CWA. ACTIVITY OVER WV AND WRN VA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENE.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE LWX CWA AT THE END OF PEAK
HEATING...ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDER IN FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

ACTIVITY INTENSITY WILL WANE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...WITH
LIKELY RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT LATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY SE OF I-95.
MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.

DRY NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH (WITH 20 MPH GUSTS) SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW
ADVANCES WEST TO EAST WITH MAX TEMPS HIGHER WEST (MID 70S) VS EAST
(UPR 60S TO LOW 70S).

WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND 50F) THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
(GENERALLY LOW TO MID 40S) DUE TO SLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MONDAY...ALLOWING S/SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
USHER IN WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH T/TD PEAKING IN THE 80S/50S. WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE WAA DURING PEAK HEATING...THOUGH POOR
LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES MIGHT PREVENT ANY
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
POPS.

VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH ECMWF FAR LESS BULLISH WITH QPF. BEST T-STORM CHANCES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.
OVERALL...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER BY END OF
THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/INTENSITY LOW ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS REST OF TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS IN HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS VEER TO THE N BY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ACROSS THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ALL WATERS FOR WEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES
THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS.

N WINDS IN SCA RANGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE IN STRONG WSW FLOW AND
BEHIND A CDFNT TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE



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