Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 101510
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1110 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE OFF THE COAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO USHER IN MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S FOR ALL
LOW LAND LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. BAY BREEZE WILL BE LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE BAY DUE
TO THE BREEZE. A SOUTHWEST 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AND STALLS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BOTH NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS E WV/NORTHERN MD AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT WHERE MLCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ARE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT WILL REASSESS FOR THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY EVENING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE JET STREAK AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND SRN
MD WHICH ARE ON THE SOUTH MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
NO SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 SAT AND APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S SUN. A
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. &&

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY BE PRESENT LATE FRIDAY
DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY AND A RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT NOON FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...EXPANDING TO
ALL WATERS AT 4PM. CONTINUED THE SCA INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
MD PORTION OF THE BAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
THAT WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-539-
     540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...SDG/BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...SDG/BAJ/HAS
MARINE...SDG/BAJ/HAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ






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