Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 011905 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN ALOFT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITING FACTORS IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL END AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...70S IN THE METRO AREAS. COLD FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20 KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KBWI-KDCA AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH TO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO THE TAF. PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO A FEW OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME BUT GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. MAIN MARINE CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRW NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...CEM/MSE/KRW MARINE...CEM/MSE/KRW

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