Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 221429
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10AM...UPR LOW OVER IL/IN WITH 1009MB SFC LOW NE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW/IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF OF CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A BATCH OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO S-CNTRL VA AND ARE ON TRACK
TO REACH SRN MD JUST AFTER NOON. SRN MD LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST
THREAT AREA FOR THUNDER WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS. THE
SECOND AREA IS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. JUST
WENT ISOLATED THUNDER THERE. IN BETWEEN ACROSS THE BALT- WASH
METRO...THE MORE STRATIFORM AREA...SHOULD CAUSE A DEARTH IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. AT LEAST UNTIL THE ISOLATED THUNDER (LIKELY
RAIN) ACTIVITY FROM THE APPALACHIANS SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE THREAT TODAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S STILL
REASONABLE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.

ACTIVITY INTENSITY WILL WANE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...WITH
LIKELY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
LINGER SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO EXIT AND CLEARING TO OCCUR.
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL...U60S/L70S
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUN EVENING WITH WARM WSW FLOW
DEVELOPING MON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S. A WEAK
CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRES BUILDS FOR MID WEEK WITH TEMPS COOLING DOWN TO NEAR 70F. LOW
PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR AS -SHRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED
ACROSS DC METROS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD VCTS OR TSRA TO
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE ALLOWS.

WINDS VEER TO THE N BY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A FEW SHOWERS TUE
WITH A CDFNT BUT DON`T APPEAR TO PUT ANY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MD WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY. SUB-WARNING WINDS MOST LIKELY WITH MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS THE EXPECTED HEADLINE.

N IN SCA RANGE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED SAT NIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE IN STRONG WSW FLOW AND
BEHIND A CDFNT TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/LFR



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