


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --706 FXUS61 KLWX 021357 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle off to our south and east today. High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, before progressing offshore early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --The latest surface analysis, paired with radar/satellite data depicts that the cold front has now pushed into southern MD through central VA and northward into New England. Shower activity remains along this boundary, albeit with much less intensity than earlier this morning. Generally seeing light to moderate rain showers in these areas, which will very slowly push south and east for the rest of the morning. The front should eventually clear southern Maryland by around noon. Showers should come to an end from northwest to southeast as the front passes through. This has mostly occurred along/west of I-95, but we will probably hold onto showers in the east through Noon or so. Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon as much drier air filters in aloft behind the front. The drier air should act to limit the development of additional showers or storms this afternoon, but a stray storm can`t be ruled out. Most locations should remain dry through the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will reach into the mid 80s for most. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Some patchy fog may be possible, especially in sheltered river valleys.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper troughing will remain in place across eastern North America tomorrow, with an embedded shortwave rotating through the base of the trough just to our north across Upstate NY and PA. A few showers or even a brief thunderstorm could form tomorrow afternoon as this disturbance tracks to our north, but dry air in the mid-levels should keep coverage of showers and storms extremely low, if any occur at all. The chance is actually too low at this point to mention in the online forecast (less than 15 percent). Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Dewpoints will drop into the 60s, making it feel noticeably less humid. Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected Thursday night. Temperatures should drop back into the 60s, and some patchy fog may be possible during the second half of the night. The aforementioned upper trough will depart to our northeast off the New England coast on Friday. Large scale subsidence behind the departing trough will encourage high pressure to build in at the surface. Sunny skies are expected, with high temperatures in the mid 80s for most. Dewpoints will continue to drop, potentially even making it into the 50s by afternoon. This will make it feel the least humid it has in quite some time. Clear skies are expected 4th of July evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low humidity. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper low will depart across the Canadian Maritimes as ridging builds from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Ridging will strengthen heading into early next week before weakening heading into the middle of next week. Rising temperatures and humidity are expected through the medium range. Other than a pop up shower or thunderstorm near the Appalachians Sunday afternoon/evening, the weekend looks dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --CIGs have generally improved across the area this morning, with all 6 TAF having improved to VFR already. However, some passing low clouds at MRB and DCA could perhaps briefly drop conditions to MVFR to IFR. However, that should come to an end over the next hour or two as we start to mix out. Thereafter, prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. A brief shower or storm could redevelop this afternoon, but the chance of that occurring is far to low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light and variable today, and light out of the northwest on Thursday and Friday. VFR conditions are expected this weekend with light S/SE winds AOB 10 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Friday night. Winds should be light and variable today, then light out of the north to northwest on Thursday and Friday. South to southeast winds of less than 15 knots are expected along with dry weather this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...CJL/KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...DHOF AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KJP MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KJP