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000
FXUS61 KLWX 211805
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain
overhead through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria
is expected to remain over the Atlantic and well to our
southeast through at least early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Tropical Storm Jose continues to be off the coast of New
England, well to our east. It is expected to stay there and
weaken over the next few days. High pressure ridge extends along
the Appalachians with its influence over the eastern U.S. A
weak trough of low pressure which brought showers and
thunderstorms to western Virginia yesterday has moved south.
Its influence may still bring a stray shower to the far
southwestern corner of the CWA this afternoon, but only a
slight chance. Otherwise, another mostly sunny and warm day with
mainly thin high clouds. Highs today will be well into the 80s
once again, with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s once again.
Winds will be light.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure ridge at the surface will remain more or less
stationary over the Appalachians through Saturday night. Aloft,
ridge of high pressure centered over the Midwest will continue
to extend its influence across our region, while Jose will
continue to meander over the northwest Atlantic near New
England. The end result will be continued warm and dry weather,
with the only real weather concern being extent and coverage of
patchy fog each morning. Highs will be well into the 80s Friday
and Saturday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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High pressure both at the surface and aloft will control the weather
pattern for Sunday and Sunday night...bringing more dry and warm
conditions.

The remnants of Jose may push closer toward the east coast Monday
and Tuesday...but latest guidance suggests that this remains far
enough out to sea so that it will have little impact on our weather.
Will continue to keep an eye on this because there are still a few
GEFS members that bring it farther west into our area which would
bring more clouds and possible precipitation. However...a vast
majority of the GEFS members keep it out to sea long with the latest
deterministic runs of the GFS...ECMWF and UKMET. Therefore...the
most likely scenario is that high pressure both at the surface and
aloft continues to control the weather pattern...bringing more dry
conditions along with above normal temperatures.

Hurricane Maria may approach the east coast of the United States
during the middle portion of next week. Latest guidance suggests
that there is a better chance for this system to remain
offshore...but confidence is still low this far out. Please consult
the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding
the forecast for Hurricane Maria.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Main concern through the next several days is patchy late night
and early morning fog, mainly at MRB and CHO. Vis could drop
briefly to IFR at either or both sites each of the next three
mornings. An MVFR restriction is not out of the question at the
other terminals (except DCA). Otherwise, VFR with light winds
should prevail through Saturday night thanks to high pressure.

More of the same into next week. High pressure will control the
weather pattern Sunday through Tuesday. Areas of low clouds and
fog are possible during the overnight and early morning hours
each day.
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&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure will provide dry weather with sub-SCA winds
through the weekend into early next week.

Global models show winds strengthening on Tue as pressure
gradient tightens as Hurricane Maria gets closer to the mid-Atlc
coast middle of next week. For now, it appears small craft
advisories are possible.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding will continue along sensitive tidal shores
over the next several days.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ018.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$