Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280721 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. FOG DISSIPATES AFTR SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS HINTING AT ISO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TERRAIN OF WV/WESTERN VA THIS AFTN...THOUGH FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO BE SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS TO JUST LOW END SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SW CORNER. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT. WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY AVB NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ALTC. FCST WL BE FOR A HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR 90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE PROGGED DEWPTS. CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30 POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS. OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING. WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTN HRS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...SEARS/HTS MARINE...SEARS/HTS

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