Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 162154
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
554 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT RW N OF THE MASON DIXON LN ATTM. NVA AND LOSS OF INSOLATION
SHUD LEAD TO A RAPID DSPTN OF SHRA THIS EVE. DRIER AIR ADVCTS EWD
OVNGT...THUS DONT THINK IT`LL BE A BIG FOG NGT. SKIES WL BE CLRG
AND WLY WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NGT AS WELL.

H5 LOW ACRS ONT/QUE FRI. CWFA WL BE IN WLY FLOW BTWN VORT LOBES
DURING THIS PD. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LEAD TO MOSUN SKIES DURING THE
DAY.

LOWS RANGE FM THE M40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LM50S IN THE
CITIES. HIGHS FRI IN THE LM70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD SOME LIFT.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...SO MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS WITH IT. A SPRINKLE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ECMWF 500MB SHORTWAVE ENTERING GREAT LAKES AREA LATE SUNDAY. CUT-OFF
LOW FORMS OVER UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW WILL CROSS
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL ENTER CWA MONDAY. FRONT WILL CROSS CWA TUESDAY.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIRT CWA TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL CROSS CWA THURSDAY.

BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TUESDAY...AND A
LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLD CVR ACROSS THE MID ATLC...BUT IN ALL CASES
CIGS ARE VFR. CLDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN CVRG OVRNGT. VFR SHUD
PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PD IN WLY FLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/BJL/CEM






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