Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 240718
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MIDWEEK AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A BEAUTIFUL SETTING ORANGE MOON WAS VSBL IN THE WRN SKY AT 1 AM...
A SIGN OF THE INCRSD MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE INCRSD MOISTURE IS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES HAS
MIGRATED OFFSHORE. NOW OUR EYES TURN TO A FAIRLY WEAK LN OF RW OVR
ERN OH ASSO W/ A CD FNT. THIS IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE APLCHNS
DURG MID AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM AHD OF THE FNT TO THE 85-90 RNG.
THIS WL ALLOW FOR AFTN CAPES TO RISE ABV 1000...BUT THE LO LVL
WIND FIELD LOOKS REALLY POOR. SPC HAS AREA IN ONLY A MRGNL
RISK..AND SREF SVR WX PARAMETER INDICATES THE BETTER CHC FOR SVR
(IF ANY DVLPS) WL BE ACROSS NY/PA. BUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM LATE
THIS AFTN/ERLY EVE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LWX FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE THREAT OF STORMS WL BE ONGOING MOVG INTO THE TNGT PD IN THE
ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER AS STATED ABV HELCITY IS WEAK.
PULSE SVR IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. AFTRWRDS A WARM NGT W/ LOWS
IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. PTCHY FOG WL
BE PSBL AFTR MDNGT IN THE SHEN VLLY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY RA FALLS
BEFORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA. ISOLD AFTN/ERLY EVE TSTMS PSBL AS A FNT
MOVES THRU THE MID ATLC. FOR NOW HV VCTS IN SVRL TAFS. DAYSHIFT
MAY HV TO INDICATE A GRTR THREAT ONCE THE STORMS DRAW CLOSER.

TNGT LGT FOG PSBL AT CHO/MRB/IAD.

VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTN/TNGT AS A WK CD FNT MOVES E OF THE MTNS
THIS AFTN AND ACROSS THE WATERS TNGT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL WHICH
COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

CHES BAY HAS JUST GONE THRU THE HIGHER OF THE 2 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES...AND THE UPR PTMC IS CURRENTLY. CAUTION STAGE IS WHAT WAS
REACHED. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WL NOT BE A CONCERN. BY THE TIME
OF THE HHT THE FNT WL HV MOVED THRU THE CWA. WHILE THERE WON`T BE
STRONG WRLY WINDS BEHIND IT IT IS QUSTNBL WHETHER MINOR FLD LVLS
WL BE REACHED REGARDLESS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ532.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KRW


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