Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 011905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN
ALOFT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA. KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE.

ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL END AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE 60S
IN MANY LOCATIONS...70S IN THE METRO AREAS.

COLD FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KBWI-KDCA AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH TO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO THE TAF. PATCHY FOG
IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO A FEW OF THE TAFS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ATTM IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME BUT
GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...CEM/MSE/KRW



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