Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 161313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S NEAR
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BE BLDG ACRS THE CWFA TNGT THRU TMRW NGT. HWVR...MSTR FM
THE STALLED FNT WL BE ACRS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER...H5 HGT PTTN
SLIGHTLY TROFFY. THEREFORE...MAY NOT HV CLEAR/CALM CONDS THRUT. HV
PDS OF PT-MOCLDY SKIES...SPCLY ACRS CENTRL VA. WL BE KEEPING FCST
DRY THRU THE PD SINCE FORCING MINIMAL.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...HV GNLY GONE ON THE COOL SIDE SUPPORTED BY CAA
AND UPR TROF AXIS. WHERE MOS DIVERGED...AM CLOSER TO MAV.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW RH INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A DRY COLUMN.
ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MTNS TO MID TO HIGH 70S ALONG I-95 AND
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
LOW STRATUS AS MARINE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PATCHY BR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
VALID PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MARGINAL WITH WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND RESIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. N-NE FLOW ON THE WATERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO
DECREASE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL






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