Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KLWX 200758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS STATIONED OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1026MB SFC HIGH OVER CAPE BRETON NOVA SCOTIA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC (1020MB AT
HAGERSTOWN). NELY FLOW EAST OF THIS AXIS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE BALTIMORE AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE DC AREA.
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH
ONE FINAL SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER BALTIMORE. MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/AROUND 60F
WEST (AND AT CHARLOTTESVILLE).

TODAY...CLOUDY MORNING WITH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SHOULD GET A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED (GENERALLY LIGHT) SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATER UNDER THE APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AXIS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR SO...MAX TEMPS LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST AS FLOW BECOMES ELY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...AND AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS...MID
60S INLAND...UPR 60S/70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

MONDAY...SELY FLOW AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
COAST. UPR TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS I-95 AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MID 80S WITH BROKEN CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WE`VE LOST 23 MINUTES OF DAYLGT. ONE
MONTH HENCE WE`LL HV LOST ANOTHER 1 HR 3 MIN.

AS I`VE NOTED SVRL TIMES IN DSCNS THIS MONTH THIS HAS NOT SEEMED
TO BE A "NRML" MID SUMMER UPR LVL PATTERN...NOR DOES IT APPEAR
THAT THERE WL BE ONE DURG THE XTND PART OF THIS FCST. DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD RISE BOTH TUE AND WED...INTO THE L90S WED...BUT STILL
NOTHING OUT-OF-THE-ORDINARY FOR THE LATTER 3RD OF JUL.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A CD FNT WL BE TRACKING INTO THE RGN THU.
SWRN U.S RDG WL BE INTENSIFYING W/ TROFFING DVLPG OVR ERN CANADA
AND DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. AHD OF THE FNT TSTM CHCS WHOULD BE
INCRSG WED AFTN/EVE. AT THIS MOMENT SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW DURG MIDWK.

THE WK LOOKS TO END ON A HIGH NOTE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FNT. FRI SHOULD SEE CLRG SKIES..PERHAPS DWPTS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LM80S...LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LESS THAN 10 KT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY (NELY TODAY...ELY
TONIGHT...SELY MONDAY). SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
TERMINALS WITH A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ON MONDAY.

GNRLY VFR CONDS XPCTD MON NGT AND TUE. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL TUE AFTN
THRU MIDDAY WED...THEN CHCS XPCTD TO INCRS AHD OF A CD FNT FOR LATER
WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB 15 KT ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING EAST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY (NELY TODAY...ELY TONIGHT...SELY MONDAY).

SCA CONDS MAY BE XPRNCD ON THE WIDER PARTS OF THE WATERS WED NGT
AND ERLY THU AHEAD OF A CD FNTL PASSAGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.