Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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944
FXUS61 KLWX 020855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DON`T WANT THIS TO GET LOST IN THE MULTIPLE SXNS OF THIS DSCN -
INTERESTING TO LOOK AT AREA HYDROGRAPHS. STRMS/CRKS SHOWED SHARP
RISES DURG MON AFTN BUT ARE NOW FALLING. RVRS ARE NOW ON THE RISE
BUT ARE STILL SVRL FT BLO FLD STG. THESE RISES APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING.

HIGH PRES OVR LAKE HURON/ERIE WL BLD OVR THE E CST TDA. A FEW
SPOTS HV DVLPD FOG OVRNGT. GIVEN THE LGT WIND FLOW AREA WL XPRNC
TDA WHERE FOG HAS DVLPD IT MAY BE HARD TO DISLODGE...BUT IT IS
QUITE LOCALIZED.

HIGHS TO RANGE FM THE M50S CENTRAL SHEN VLLY TO MU40S ALONG THE PA
BRDR.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

CD FNT WL BE MOVG INTO TN VLLY TNGT WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES OVR
ATLC CANADA. THIS COMBO WL LKLY SPELL FOR A WARM NGT W/ LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE LM40S. FOG DVLPMNT WL BE PSBL AGN TNGT. PCPN CHCS
WL BEGIN AFTR MDNGT IN THE W...WORKING THEIR WAY E BY MRNG.

WED WL BE ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING DAY AS A CD FNT CROSSES THE RGN
DURG THE MIDDDAY HRS. HV PUSHED TEMPS UP AS I BLV WAA COULD BE
FAIRLY STRONG EVEN THO 3/4-1" OF RA WL BE PSBL. ALSO BLV WINDS ABV
2500 FT COULD GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON STRONG SRLY FLOW.
SEE HYDRO SXN BLO FOR CONCERNS ABT MELTING OF RMDR OF SNOWPACK/RA/
STREAM/CRK/RVR RISES.

LWR SRN MD IS ALSO OUTLOOKED IN A MRGNL RISK. RDR OPERATOR WL HV
TO BE LOOKING AT ANY STORMS THAT TRACK NE OUT OF SRN VA.

WED LOOKS TO BE WARM W/ HIGHS IN THE 60S. SEE CLI SXN BLO - THE
DAYS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 3RD HV RECORD HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL 3
MAJOR AIRPORTS...BUT THE 3RD`S ARE IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT OVERALL DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERHEAD DELIVERING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TOUCH OFF SOME
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. LARGE SCALE TROUGH CARVES
OUT IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRB HAS DROPPED TO IFR IN FG. VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE. W/ LGT WINDS
THIS MRNG MRB MAY TAKE SOME TIME TI IMPRV. ELSEWHERE ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR.

INCRSG CLD CVR TNGT. RA WED AHD OF A STRONG CD FNT COULD DROP CIGS
INTO IFR RNG. FOG DVLPMNT WL ALSO BE PSBL BOTH TUE NGT AND WED AS
WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVR SNOW CVRD GRND.

VFR EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WED FOR ALL WATERS IN STRONG SRLY FLOW AHD
OF A CD FNT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
MAINLY OVR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER SXN OF THE MD PART OF THE CHES BAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SCA
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MON MORNING READING SHOWED ANOTHER HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIV LOST
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY...NOW DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES. STEADY MELTING
IS CONTINUING DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MILD DEWPOINTS.
THANKS TO THE DRIFTS...THERE ARE SPOTS WITH A LOT OF SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER...WHILE OTHER SPOTS HAVE GONE TOTALLY BARE. AREAS
WHERE THE SNOW DEPTH IS STILL AROUND A FOOT LIKELY HAVE ABOUT 3
INCHES OF WATER IN THAT SNOW.

MELTING HAS SHOWN UP ON THE RIVERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
RAPPAHANNOCK/OCCOQUAN BASINS...NOT SO MUCH FURTHER NORTH. A SLOW
BUT STEADY MELT CONTINUES TODAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MONDAY SINCE
IT WILL BE COOLER.

THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL CONCERN REMAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S ALMOST
EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN AND
LIKELY A MELT OF MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING SNOW WATER...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ULTIMATELY...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW WATER REMAINS BY THEN...AND HOW
MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A HALF TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO AN
INCH IN NERN MD AND A FEW OTHER LOCALIZED SPOTS.

THIS YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL-STREAM FLOODING WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND URBAN FLOODING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS ARE SNOW-BLOCKED. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE YET TO RAISE AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
LASTING INTO FRIDAY ON THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND WASHINGTON DC ON THE POTOMAC...
AND THE LARGER TRIBUTARIES THAT FLOW INTO THE POTOMAC...SUCH AS THE
OPEQUON AND MONOCACY AND MAINSTEM SHENANDOAH. HOWEVER...IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MOST
AREAS WHERE A THREAT EXISTS IS FOR MINOR TO LOW-END MODERATE
FLOODING ONLY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LEVELS BE GRADUALLY RISING IN ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. TIDES WILL LIKELY EXCEED MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT HAVRE DE GRACE AND BOWLEYS QUARTERS LATE WEDNESDAY.
BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS WILL BE THREATENING ACTION STAGE DURING THIS
CYCLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS HIGHS FOR WED: FEB 3RD IS SORT OF "LOW HANGING FRUIT" AS
RECORDS MAXES THAT DAY ARE COLDER THAN SURROUNDING DAYS.

DCA: 65 SET IN 1927
BWI: 66 SET IN 1932
IAD: 66 SET IN 1991

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM/JCE



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