Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 211805 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 205 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain over the Atlantic and well to our southeast through at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Tropical Storm Jose continues to be off the coast of New England, well to our east. It is expected to stay there and weaken over the next few days. High pressure ridge extends along the Appalachians with its influence over the eastern U.S. A weak trough of low pressure which brought showers and thunderstorms to western Virginia yesterday has moved south. Its influence may still bring a stray shower to the far southwestern corner of the CWA this afternoon, but only a slight chance. Otherwise, another mostly sunny and warm day with mainly thin high clouds. Highs today will be well into the 80s once again, with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s once again. Winds will be light. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridge at the surface will remain more or less stationary over the Appalachians through Saturday night. Aloft, ridge of high pressure centered over the Midwest will continue to extend its influence across our region, while Jose will continue to meander over the northwest Atlantic near New England. The end result will be continued warm and dry weather, with the only real weather concern being extent and coverage of patchy fog each morning. Highs will be well into the 80s Friday and Saturday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure both at the surface and aloft will control the weather pattern for Sunday and Sunday night...bringing more dry and warm conditions. The remnants of Jose may push closer toward the east coast Monday and Tuesday...but latest guidance suggests that this remains far enough out to sea so that it will have little impact on our weather. Will continue to keep an eye on this because there are still a few GEFS members that bring it farther west into our area which would bring more clouds and possible precipitation. However...a vast majority of the GEFS members keep it out to sea long with the latest deterministic runs of the GFS...ECMWF and UKMET. Therefore...the most likely scenario is that high pressure both at the surface and aloft continues to control the weather pattern...bringing more dry conditions along with above normal temperatures. Hurricane Maria may approach the east coast of the United States during the middle portion of next week. Latest guidance suggests that there is a better chance for this system to remain offshore...but confidence is still low this far out. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding the forecast for Hurricane Maria. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main concern through the next several days is patchy late night and early morning fog, mainly at MRB and CHO. Vis could drop briefly to IFR at either or both sites each of the next three mornings. An MVFR restriction is not out of the question at the other terminals (except DCA). Otherwise, VFR with light winds should prevail through Saturday night thanks to high pressure. More of the same into next week. High pressure will control the weather pattern Sunday through Tuesday. Areas of low clouds and fog are possible during the overnight and early morning hours each day. && .MARINE... High pressure will provide dry weather with sub-SCA winds through the weekend into early next week. Global models show winds strengthening on Tue as pressure gradient tightens as Hurricane Maria gets closer to the mid-Atlc coast middle of next week. For now, it appears small craft advisories are possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding will continue along sensitive tidal shores over the next several days. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.