Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 291806 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/... RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE URBAN CENTERS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED. THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM. STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ532>537-542-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAS NEAR TERM...CAS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...CEM/CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS

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