Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 061850 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW ARE STACKED AND CENTERED ACROSS CAPE MAY NJ THIS AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE ATLANTIC LED TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMTS AROUND AN INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NE MD INCLUDING THE CITY OF BALTIMORE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD...RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE RESULTING IN A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A LOW CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS RATES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH AN HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS RUNOFF REACHES SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL BECOME SCATTERED. EXPECT ANOTHER DAMP NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S/L50S. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE SFC LOW AS THEY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. A BREAK IN RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD STAY LIGHT. A BREAK IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 60S/L70S. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS MON INTO TUE BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OUR AREA KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU FRI. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS... MAINLY ON WED... WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THRU WED... IN THE 70S THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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RA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHO. RA WILL BECOME SCT TONIGHT. SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS CIGS DROP ACROSS BWI/MTN/DCA TONIGHT...CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT IAD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD STAY NW-N THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHRA MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THRU WED AS A FRONT KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS MON THRU WED AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS PSBL DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR REGION.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ST MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM ANNE ARUNDEL SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO...BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES SHOULD STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE BAY TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND LEAD TO LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A NEW MOON AND LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW WILL KEEP ANOMALIES FROM DROPPING EVEN WITH A W AND N COMPONENT. FURTHER ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. WATER LEVELS WILL STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WATERFRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ017-018. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...HAS/IMR MARINE...HAS/IMR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS

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