Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 190840 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE VORT LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CO LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND MID-WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS A UPSLOPE COMPONENT CAUSES ENHANCEMENT. ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY RESULTING IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX. THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 10K FT CIGS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED. NW 5-10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N 5KTS OR LESS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.
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&& .MARINE...
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NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...HAS/BPP MARINE...HAS/BPP

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