Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 301841 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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NO PROBS FORESEEN TNGT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. GIVEN GNRLY CLR SKIES OVRHD LOWS W OF I-95 WL DROP INTO THE U30S..LM40S E. HIGHS XPCTD TO DROP BLO FRZG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA. THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60 WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS. HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG THE EVE. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT. AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW. QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET FLAKES AT THE HIGER ELEVS. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...USHERING IN A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD. AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI. CIGS XPCTD TO DIMINISH FRI NGT. MVFR CONDS XPCTD SAT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW

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