Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 AXUS71 KLWX 011334 DGTLWX DCC001-MDC001-003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-VAC003- 013-047-059-061-079-107-113-137-153-157-177-179-510-540-600-610- 630-683-685-WVC003-065-160000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 831 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016 ...RECENT RAINS KEEP DROUGHT FROM WORSENING FURTHER... SYNOPSIS... AS OF NOVEMBER 29TH 2016...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS... EXCEPT FOR NELSON...KING GEORGE...CHARLES...CALVERT...AND SAINT MARY`S COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN MOST OF CALVERT AND SAINT MARY`S COUNTIES. THIS IS UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AS OF NOVEMBER 30TH 2016...THERE WERE NO DROUGHT DECLARATIONS ISSUED FOR THE AREA BY LOCAL/STATE GOVERNMENTS. SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ AREA. THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE HELP IN TOPSOIL MOISTURE. COUNTY AGRICULTURE OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER HAS BEEN HELPFUL FOR THE HARVEST BUT STRESSES TO HAY AND PASTURELANDS ARE OCCURRING. PRIOR TO THE RECENT RAINS...THERE HAD BEEN SOME REPORTS OF FIRE ACTIVITY. BURN RESTRICTIONS WERE IN PLACE IN FAUQUIER...NELSON... ROCKINGHAM...AND PAGE COUNTIES...AND THE CITY OF STAUNTON. THIS INFORMATION CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY AS CONDITIONS ARE REASSESSED...SO CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT BEFORE CONSIDERING OUTDOOR BURNING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH FREEZES OCCURRING AND PLANTS GOING DORMANT FOR THE WINTER...IMPACTS OF THE DRY WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY MINIMAL. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RECENT RAINFALL AT THE END OF THE MONTH MADE UP AROUND HALF OF THE NOVEMBER RAINFALL DEFICIT. THIS COMES NOWHERE CLOSE TO ELIMINATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES STOP THE CONDITIONS FROM DETERIORATING FURTHER. THREE-MONTH RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN...WHICH ENCOMPASSES 9/1/16 TO 11/30/16...IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA INCLUDE: REAGAN AIRPORT.....6.13 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...7TH DRIEST DULLES AIRPORT.....5.61 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...4TH DRIEST BWI AIRPORT........4.01 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...13TH DRIEST EMMITSBURG MD......4.39 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...6RD DRIEST ORANGE.............4.96 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...11TH DRIEST CHARLOTTESVILLE....5.52 INCHES BELOW NORMAL /THE ABOVE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CORRECTION/ PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY DECEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ARE LIMITED TO A WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 6TH WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A HALF TO ONE INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN A WINTRY FORM IN SOME AREAS/. THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /DECEMBER 8TH THROUGH 14TH/ STRONGLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND INDICATES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...THE MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016 DOES INDICATE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO END BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH...GIVEN A PATTERN SHIFT TO WETTER CONDITIONS. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... RECENT RAINS HAVE BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH BASEFLOW RECHARGE OCCURS TO KNOW IF THE RAIN WAS ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE PREVIOUS BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW ENTIRELY. GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND...BUT DO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE FALL LINE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...AND THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK INDICATING ALLEVIATION OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN STREAMFLOW AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEKS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON THURSDAY DECEMBER 15TH. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES... US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU NWS DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/DROUGHT CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 43858 WEATHER SERVICE ROAD STERLING, VA 20166 PHONE...703-996-2200 LWXWEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ JELLIOTT

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