Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 020754 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 335 AM SAT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE DATA INDICATES THE WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CENTERED ON A LINE FROM NEAR SOUTHPORT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTH TO JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT THEN NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORFOLK VA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO OH/PA BY THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THESE FEATURES PLACE EASTERN NC IN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INLAND STALLED BOUNDARY TO PRODUCED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND WITH 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. NO CHANGE TO FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT SEEM AS FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF SPIN-UPS LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AND HAVE SEEM SOME COUPLETS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM SAT...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO OH/WV/PA. NO REAL CHANGE TO PRECIP TRIGGERS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAMING NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN MAKING TIMING OF PRECIP DIFFICULT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 AM SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE CONTINUING TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA. WPC AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMALS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPR 80S COAST. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... AS OF 120 AM SAT...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING NEAR SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR OAJ/EWN WHERE CONVECTION OFFSHORE SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THESE SITES PRIOR TO DAWN. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT ALTHOUGH CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THE COAST IN THE MOIST SSW FLOW. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM SAT...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING DIURNAL IN NATURE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 AM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING A SE WIND MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS FOR THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM SAT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN SWELLS FROM TC BERTHA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY SHOWING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE. CURRENT NHC AND MODEL CONSENSUS RE-CURVES THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE...GREATER THAN 300 MILES...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO MARINE CONCERNS...AND BEACH-GOERS WITH AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081- 090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...JAC AVIATION...JAC/DAG MARINE...JAC/DAG

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