Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 301409 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1009 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will remain quasi-stationary across the Ohio River Valley today then move North Saturday and Northeast towards New England Sunday pushing a cold front across the area Sunday night. The front will stall off of the coast early next week while high pressure builds in from the north. Hurricane Matthew is forecast to move north of the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast mid to late next week. Please see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Matthew. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
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As of 1010 AM Friday...Only minor adjustments for hourly wx elements with the morning update, otherwise the forecast remains on track. The vertically stacked low pressure system centered over KY will remain nearly stationary today. Meanwhile a weak surface low resides across the western Carolina piedmont with a stationary front extending east across eastern NC and a cold front extending south across SC and the Southeast coast. Only sporadic fog being observed across Eastern NC and should completely mix out by 16Z. The surface pattern shifts ever so slightly north and east today but we will remain under deep moist southerly flow across eastern NC with PWAT values ~1.5-1.8 inches. A weak vort max is rotating through the upper low and currently bringing enhanced showers across eastern SC and southeast NC and expect a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to lift north across the area through the day today; moving into southwest sections this morning and into northeast sections this afternoon. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Friday...The upper low over KY will very slowly drift north tonight while the surface low lifts north into VA with the trailing cold front approaching the area. Expect the deeper moisture to shift to the coast with drier air aloft, as noted in WV satellite imagery, moving into western sections leading to a better chance of showers across the eastern half of the CWA overnight. Light winds and abundant low level moisture will lead to a good chance of fog across the region again tonight. Lows expected in the mid to upper 60s well inland to mid 70s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Friday... Saturday...The quasi-stationary upper low will begin to move north Saturday but still produce a deep cyclonic flow across the area. The surface cold front will remain just to the west with continued moist/unstable southerly flow ahead of it across the region especially along the coast. Will continue chc pops coast tapering to slight chc deep inland. Will remain warm with srly flow producing highs in the low to poss mid 80s. Sunday through Monday...As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and drifts off the coast and stalls Mon. Models cont to keep better moisture along and East of the coast so cont low chc pops cst Sunday tapering to slight chc Monday...inland areas will be mainly dry. Not much change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst with highs upr 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday through Wednesday...High pres will gradually build in from the N Tue and slide E Wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue with small pop cst. On wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a little better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with more pronounced NNE flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss around 80 S. Thursday and Friday...Forecast will be dependent on track of Hurricane Matthew. Will increase rain chances especially coast and keep cool high temps in the 70s in NE flow. Please see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Matthew.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 745 AM Friday...Areas of LIFR fog across a good portion of eastern NC this morning with greatest coverage north of highway 70. The fog expected to burn off between 13-15Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing brief periods of sub-VFR conditions will lift north across routes through the day with better chances across southwest sections this morning, moving to northeast sections this afternoon. Better showers chances will reside across coastal sections tonight. Could see areas of fog develop again tonight with abundant low level moisture and light winds persisting but could see drier air working in from the west which may minimize development. Confidence in occurrence is low as soundings suggest less of a chance of fog while mos guidance is very bullish with it. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Sat with a period of sub VFR conditions possible. Drier air will work in from the W Sunday into Tuesday with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR...there will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and stratus with light winds this weekend into early next week. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 1000 AM Friday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate S/SE winds sound of Hatteras Inlet with E/ENE winds north of there, around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt outside of any showers or thunderstorms. A weak boundary bisecting the waters will slowly lift north today while a weak cold front approaches from the W. Expect to see winds become S across all waters this afternoon and increase to around 10-15 KT through tonight as gradient tightens some ahead of the cold front. Wavewatch and NWPS a bit underdone with seas across the northern waters as it does not seem to have been capturing stronger winds/swells off the Mid-Atlantic Coast over the past day or so and buoys off Duck and Oregon Inlet reporting seas around 6 FT. No change to current Small Craft Advisory for the waters north of Cape Hatteras through this afternoon, after which seas are expected to subside to around 3-5 FT tonight. South of Hatteras seas are expected to remain around 2 to 4 FT with up to 5 FT across the outer waters this afternoon and tonight coincided to slightly stronger southerly flow. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region Sat will lead to mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low/front will slowly slide E toward the coast Sunday then move offshore by Monday. Light mostly S winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak. The ne/E flow is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 KT Monday and 15 to 20 KT Tuesday. Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet through Monday then increase to 3 to 5 FT Tuesday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK/DAG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RF/JME AVIATION...RF/JME/SK MARINE...RF/JME/SK/DAG

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