Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 261846 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 246 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF CORE BANKS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT. WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/ AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. ONLY SCATTERED CU FIELD FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/ AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...JAC AVIATION...HSA/JAC MARINE...HSA/JAC

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