Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 281938 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 338 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES THE AXIS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEP NEAR TERM...LEP SHORT TERM...LEP LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/LEP LEP MARINE...SK/LEP

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