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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 030300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...AND WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
THE SE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SW WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 30-36 DEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY. FLOW WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO
SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING POPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WARM SECTOR
BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA LATER TUES NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WED IN THE DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. TEMPERATURES
MAY INITIALLY BE STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TUE EVENING THEN RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER SW FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE. TEMPS WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM FROM ANY COOLING
ONSHORE BREEZE AND ANY SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
COASTLINES WED. TRIGGERS ARE LACKING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP BUT CUD
BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY GIVEN ANY
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SW FLOW.

MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT
LINES UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LATER WITH PRECIP ARRIVAL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF DURING THU AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MOST
OF IT FALLS AS JUST A COLD RAIN THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL
THINK THAT THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID
TO FROZEN ARE GOOD SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SLEET AND SNOW IN
THE FORECAST BEFORE ENDING BY LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IT
APPEARS AS ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP BUT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SLEET CUD
RESULT IN SMALL AMOUNTS. TEMPS REMAIN RATHER MILD ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WED NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY OCCUR EARLY THEN SLOWLY
FALLING WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL CAA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE 20S THU AND FRI NIGHTS WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY STRUGGLING TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AS BROAD EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FLIPFLOPPY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, TRYING TO BRING
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE BACK UP THRU THE SE STATES. PREFER TO AWAIT
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP INTO THE LONGER
RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BTWN 18-21Z.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING S/SW SFC FLOW AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO IFR/LIFR
IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LIKELY THRU EARLY WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCOURS OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH PRECIP
DIMINISHING LATE THU...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT AND SEAS 3-5FT...LOCALLY UP TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DROP SCA FOR PAMLICO
SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS BASED ON PAST SEVERAL HOURS OF OBS.
SHORT DURATION SURGE CONTINUES BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL VEER DURING THE DAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MARINE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 9
FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO STRONG N WINDS INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD/HSA