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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 100817
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND LINGER INTO LATE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM WED...WINDS DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WILL SEE THE FOG RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. THE RAIN HAS CLEARED
OUT...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT DZ COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...BEGINNING TO SEE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFF NE OBX WHERE 7MB 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEING OBSERVED.
AS THE STRONG UPPER LVL ENERGY STILL TO OUR W SLIDES JUST TO OUR N
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS AND A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL JET AROUND 200KT MOVING INTO
THE REGION TODAY. ALSO LOOKING AT A STRONG LLJ WITH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER POTENTIAL AROUND 50 KTS+ DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...TRANSLATING TO SFC WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45MPH+ POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NOW...THE DRIER AIR
WILL DRIVE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
WITH WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT...THE DAILY HIGHS WILL LIKELY HAVE
OCCURRED THEN WITH TEMPS FALLING THIS MORNING AND THEN STEADYING IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS
MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME SCU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW SLIDES BY. THE COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TD
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 24-48 HR
TIMEFRAME...TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR ALL BUT T WHERE NAM WAS
TOO HIGH AT INITIALIZATION. FOR THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL
PEAK...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES TO OUR
NE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW...BUT
AS IS TYPICAL BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AS WINDS REMAIN UP (WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS). THE RIDGE
BUILDING TO OUR W WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN ON THU WITH COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM WED...QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST NOSES INTO THE
REGION. W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH FEW CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER
THE SHIFT TO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME
GIVEN MANY RIVERS IN FLOOD. LIKELY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF
THE FCST. THIS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE EASTERN U.S. DUE TO LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND
LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEST.

THOUGH WX FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS QUIETER AS S STREAM SINKS
FURTHER S...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA. A FEW SHORT WAVES
CURRENTLY ON SAT ARE BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS WHICH
COULD IMPACTING TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF ANY POTENTIAL SFC FEATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS TRACKS...ONE SUCH S/W
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH A STRONGER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON SUN NT INTO MON. THE FIRST ONE COULD
INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE NEXT S STREAM LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
FL SAT. THE PRESENCE OF THIS S/W COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE N TRACK
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WELL TO OUR S...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC
FLURRIES/-SN/RA FRI NT INTO SAT AS HPC QPF SHOWING MEASURABLE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SECOND WAVE...THOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER. ECMWF REMAINS
THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS WITH A FASTER TRACK...WITH GEM/GFS
SLOWER AND WARMER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING). THE SFC FEATURE BY THE
MODELS SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE OR LOW NEAR THE COAST...WHICH MAY BE
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W. UNLIKE THE S STREAM/GULF
SYSTEMS...THESE NW DISTURBANCES WILL LACK A SOURCE OF MOISTURE...SO
NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE RAIN/SNOW EVENTS TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONTINUING THE RIVER FLOODING.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
BNDRY LAYER MIXING INCREASES ACRS THE AREA. ANY LIFR CIGS SHUD ALSO
BE LIFTING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BEFORE DAWN. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SCT/BKN DIURNAL SC AS COLD POOL PASSES BY TO NORTH TODAY
BUT VFR CONDS WILL RULE AFTER SUNRISE.

OF HIGH CONCERN TODAY WILL BE VERY STRONG SFC WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT
FLIGHT OPS WITH WEST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
KTS. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATE BUT STILL 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS INTO THE EVENING.

VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN DEEP DRY NW
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AND
MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY. WEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY TOWARD DAWN AS LOW PRES OFF THE VA CAPES
INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY. 50KT WEST 925MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
MAY HAVE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN OVER COLDER WATERS AS GULF STREAM HAS
BEEN PUSHED OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS
SO SEE NO NEED TO DOWNGRADE STORM WARNING FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL BE PEAKING THRU THE EVE HOURS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY LOOSENS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. N/NE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GET A BUMP FROM LOW PRES PASSING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. FORECASTING JUST BLO SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS FOR NOW BUT
THIS NEED TO BE WATCHED AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LIKELY BRINGS
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS TO THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ047-081-095.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...BTC
MARINE...BTC