Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 220554 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 150 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A 30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6 FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM SHORT TERM...CTC/JME LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...JBM/DAG MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM

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