Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 231703 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 103 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF WARM WATER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130- 131-135-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKQ NEAR TERM...AKQ SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...AKQ MARINE...BTC/AKQ

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