Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 290740 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 340 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the Sunday producing record or near record highs over Eastern North Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west late Monday and cross Eastern NC Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday. A strong low pressure area will affect the region late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Today/...
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As of 245 am Sat... A quiet morning with low stratus clouds streaming across Eastern NC and sea fog along the immediate coastline. Stratus clouds are expect to scatter out by mid morning...leading to mostly sunny skies. Strong ridging aloft and strong high pressure extending into the Carolinas from the Western Atlantic leading to another hot and humid condition across E NC today. Low level thicknesses of 1405-1415 m will support high temperatures around 90 degrees inland and upper 70s/low 80s along Outer Banks. These temps will be nearing record territory for the area (see climate section below).
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&& .SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
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As of 245 am Sat... Quiet weather with S to SW flow of 5-10 knots. Th night will start out mostly clear, then becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Another warm and muggy night with lows in the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 340 PM Friday...Models remain in decent agreement through mid week with a upper ridge indicated through Sunday, then more progressive flow leading to unsettled weather for next week. The flow will become more amplified late next week with the models indicating the potential for a strong upper low to affect the southeast and mid Atlantic states. There is much uncertainty regarding details with this system but there is a potential for heavy rain and possibly severe weather Thu/Fri. Through Sunday night...Ridging surface and aloft will result in a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees above normal. Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather this period. Lows each night in mid 60s to around 70. Highs Sunday in upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Monday through Wednesday...A cold front will approach from the W late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night into early Tue. Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Most models continue to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue and will continue likely POPs this period but is noted that ECMWF is less enthusiastic with precipitation chances. Lingering shra ends from W to E Tue morning with the front sliding offshore. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then cool into the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the front. High pressure is forecast to build into the area Tue night and Wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the low 80s inland. Thursday and Friday...The aforementioned upper low will begin to affect the area Thu and continue over the area Fri with a complex surface low evolution forecast over the Carolinas. Uncertainty on details this far out but there is a potential for heavy rain and/or severe weather Thu night and Fri. Cooler temps are expected with highs in the 70s expected both days.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 1 am Sat...High confidence of low stratus clouds will develop through the overnight hours leading to MVFR/IFR conditions. S to SW winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the night, inhibiting fog development. By sunrise, clouds will start to erode away...leading to mostly sunny skies by mid/late morning. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with SW winds of 10 to 15 knots throughout Saturday. Not even a sea breeze storm expected Sat as strong high pres will remain in control. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 340 PM Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A cold front will be moving across the area Mon night into early Tue with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of sub VFR conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the front late Tue through Wed with a return to prevailing VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tonight/... As 245 am Sat...Latest buoy observations are showing S to SSW 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft across the coastal waters. S to SW winds of 10-20 knots will continue as high pressure dominates the southeast region. Seas will be 2-4 ft near shore to 3 to 5 ft over the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 340 PM Friday...Moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun night around offshore high pressure. An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to 20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end Gales possible central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft by late Mon/Mon night into early Tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tue, briefly become NW around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back to southerly 10 kt Wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night, dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft Wed.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 10 pm Friday...The Tar River in Greenville is expected to reach moderate flooding, while Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is in major flood stage. The Neuse River in Kinston is now at minor flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major flood stage next week. In The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast remains in minor flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased flow out of Kerr Dam but is expected to remain just below flood stage. && .CLIMATE... Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air mass settles over Eastern NC. RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/29 --------------------------- LOCATION TEMP/YEAR NEW BERN 90/1974 (KEWN ASOS) CAPE HATTERAS 84/1994 (KHSE ASOS) GREENVILLE 91/1981 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) MOREHEAD CITY 86/2002 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) KINSTON 96/1914 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) JACKSONVILLE 89/1974 (KNCA AWOS) RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/30 --------------------------- LOCATION TEMP/YEAR NEW BERN 91/1974 (KEWN ASOS) CAPE HATTERAS 84/1974 (KHSE ASOS) GREENVILLE 92/1957 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) MOREHEAD CITY 86/1957 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) KINSTON 94/1906 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) JACKSONVILLE 90/1987 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/BM MARINE...JME/TL/BM HYDROLOGY...MHX CLIMATE...MHX

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