Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 290147 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 947 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region tonight will shift offshore Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will then remain offshore through early next week with a Piedmont trough producing chances for thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM Wed...No changes planned with clr skies and seasonably cool temps. Prev disc...High pressure will remain over the region tonight with clear skies and light winds expected. Good radiational cooling will lead to another night of comfortable temperatures with lows inland in the upper 50s to lower 60s and and mid to upper 60s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Wed...The surface high will shift offshore with a a light southerly return flow developing. This will lead to an increase in dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s which is a higher than today but not stifling. Highs will be in the mid to perhaps upper 80s inland lower 80s beaches with patchy high based afternoon cumulus clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday...High pressure will shift off the coast through the long term period with typical summer pattern developing. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible beginning Friday lasting through early next week. Friday/Friday Night...A weak short wave will move into the area from the southwest during the day. Latest 28/12Z model suite continues to indicate showers with some embedded thunder possible for mainly the southern and western areas of the FA. Will maintain the low chance pops until further model runs can handle timing and strength of this shortwave, as precip chances may have to be raised for some areas with subsequent forecasts. Shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the coast and coastal waters Friday Night and maintained chance PoPs along the coast for this. High temps will reach the upper 80s inland with mid 80s for coastal areas. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through this period. Forecasted pops based on climo (20-40 percent), with interior areas seeing best chances for scattered storms each afternoon and early evening, then best chances along the coast and offshore during the overnight periods. A weak front may aid shower and thunderstorm development Sunday or Monday, though this feature too weak and subtle to indicate higher than chance at this time. High temps will range from the low 90s inland to mid 80s near the coast, with lows 72 to 78, coolest well inland and warmest on the beaches. Tuesday through Wednesday...A bit more uncertainty this period, as ECM is indicating building hts/thicknesses which would limit convection, while GFS/CMC are indicating a weakness in the building ridge which may keep scattered showers/storms in the fcst. Will maintain the 20 pops for the FA attm which is in line with ECM Ensemble MOS probs. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 630 PM Wed...High confidence for VFR conditions most of this period. High pressure will continue across the region tonight then slide offshore Thu. With clr skies and light to calm winds tonight temps will likely reach close to dewpts and some patchy mainly light fog poss late. Any fog development will erode away quickly after sunrise...leading to mostly clear/pc skies Thu with some CU developing in the aftn as low lvl flow becomes SSE. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 305 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible each day starting Friday as some scattered mainly afternoon and evening storms pop up, and could see some periods of MVFR- IFR fog/low stratus early morning beginning on Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term /tonight and Thursday/... As of 945 PM Wed...No changes with good boating cont as high pres remains in control. Prev disc...High pressure over the waters tonight will shift east well out into the Atlantic Thursday were it will continue to influence the weather through early next week. This will cause current NE winds to veer to the E overnight and SE to S on Thursday. Speeds of 10 to 15 kt through early this evening will diminish to 10 kt or less late tonight and Thursday morning then increase slightly to 10 to 15 kt Thursday afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft through Thursday. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 305 PM Wednesday...Fair boating conditions expected through the long term as Bermuda high pressure offshore will prevail through the period. This will produce SW winds of 5-15 kt through the weekend into early next week with seas mainly 2-3 ft, though some ocnl 4 ft seas for the outer central/southern waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF/JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/JME/TL

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