Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 030300 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1000 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...AND WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE SE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SW WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 30-36 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. FLOW WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING POPS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WARM SECTOR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA LATER TUES NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED IN THE DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TUE EVENING THEN RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER SW FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM FROM ANY COOLING ONSHORE BREEZE AND ANY SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING COASTLINES WED. TRIGGERS ARE LACKING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP BUT CUD BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY GIVEN ANY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SW FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT LINES UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH PRECIP ARRIVAL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF DURING THU AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MOST OF IT FALLS AS JUST A COLD RAIN THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN ARE GOOD SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST BEFORE ENDING BY LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IT APPEARS AS ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP BUT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SLEET CUD RESULT IN SMALL AMOUNTS. TEMPS REMAIN RATHER MILD ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WED NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY OCCUR EARLY THEN SLOWLY FALLING WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL CAA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE 20S THU AND FRI NIGHTS WITH HIGHS FRIDAY STRUGGLING TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AS BROAD EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPFLOPPY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, TRYING TO BRING SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE BACK UP THRU THE SE STATES. PREFER TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP INTO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 640 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BTWN 18-21Z. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING S/SW SFC FLOW AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO IFR/LIFR IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LIKELY THRU EARLY WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. GOOD CVRG OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING LATE THU...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS 3-5FT...LOCALLY UP TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DROP SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS BASED ON PAST SEVERAL HOURS OF OBS. SHORT DURATION SURGE CONTINUES BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER DURING THE DAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO STRONG N WINDS INTO FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...BTC/CQD MARINE...BTC/CQD/HSA

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