Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 241435 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 935 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through tonight. A cold front with limited moisture will move through late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross Wednesday night or early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 935 AM...Eastern NC remains in a narrow ridge of high pressure surface and aloft between an offshore low an approaching upper trough from the west. This will keep the region in a warm and marginally moist E/SE low level flow. Still observing bands of showers over the offshore waters moving west toward the coast this morning. Trend has been for this shower activity to weaken as it moves offshore, but there is a window during the next 2-3 hours with surface heating for a few of these showers to redevelop inland before subsidence with the upper ridge inhibits development this afternoon. Will continue slight chance pops from the Pamlico sound south and east for the next few hours. The big story today will be the very warm temps with highs near 80 inland to 70s along the coast. Records (see below) are pretty high inland so while warm, we will likely fall just short in many spots for records. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 3 Am Friday... The distant low mentioned above should be farther out to sea by tonight. With a drier forecast and less of a chance for clouds, along with a moist easterly flow, areas of fog look likely after midnight. Model soundings show a lull in the wind tonight so some of the fog could be quite dense. Mins tonight will remain mild or in the 50s to near 60 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Fri...Spring-like pattern through the extended with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work week next week then warming back above avg with increasing rain chances mid week. Saturday and Saturday Night...Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on Sat, which will drag a cold front through ENC Sat evening. Global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC) remains in good agreement with respect to timing and available moisture with this system. The aforementioned low across the W Atlantic will cut off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this front, so minimal chances of precip with the fropa. However, models continue to trend wetter across portions of the area and cannot rule out an isolated shower/tstm late afternoon/early evening, especially across the northern half of the CWA, with strong frontal forcing, MU CAPE values around 1000 J/kg, 50+ kt bulk shear in place and an EML bringing steep mid level lapse rates greater than 7C/km. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible late Sat afternoon and early evening...with best chances for areas along and north of Hwy 264. Sat looks like the warmest day of the period as low lvl thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under partly cloudy skies yielding highs in the upper 70s/low 80s inland and low/mid 70s along the coast. Some guidance has inland SW areas getting into the mid/upper 80s. Record high temps will be possible. See climate section below for additional details. Lows will drop into the 40s Sat night with gusty NW winds developing after fropa with a drier airmass advecting into the region. Sunday through Monday...Front will have swept offshore bringing cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pressure across the region. Highs will be near climo in the low to upper 50s Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm winds. Monday will already begin a warming trend once again as high pres shifts offshore and SW flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps will rise into the 60s on Monday. Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid- week. 00z model suite continues to diverge with these systems leading to below confidence in the details. The GFS is generally wetter than the ECMWF through the period and kept sc/low chance pops across the area due to the uncertainty. Kept slt chc of tstms Tue as models indicate weak to moderate instab and shear across the region, but again models are not in best agreement with the amount of shear and instab either. A high shear/low CAPE environment will be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold front and continued slt chc of tstm mention. The GFS continues to be much faster than the ECMWF, pushing the front through late Wed, with the ECMWF moving the front through early Thursday. High pressure will build into the area from the west late week. Guidance continues to indicate further warming through the week as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again and yield high temps in the 70s most areas Tue and Wed. Cooler behind the front Thu and Fri, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s...and lows dropping back into the 30s/40s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short term /Through 12Z Saturday/... As of 645 AM Friday...IFR vsbys linger another hour or so at the terminals before rapid improvement to VFR between now and 14Z. VFR through early evening with an east wind at less than 10 kts. Tonight looks even more favorable for fog formation after 06Z. Medium to high confidence in IFR vsbys developing after 06Z, with airport mins possibly being met prior to sunrise. Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...Mainly VFR through the extended period. Isol showers/tstm possible late Sat afternoon/early evening ahead of a cold front, which could bring a brief period of sub- VFR conditions. A much drier/cooler air mass builds in Sunday into Monday, which should limit overnight fog threat Sat night into early next week. Moisture increases across the area Mon night and Tue bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub- VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 935 AM Friday...Although winds are expected to remain light east /15 kt or less/ through tonight, Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for the coastal waters due to 6 to 9 foot swell associated with low pressure churning southeast of the waters that will impact the waters through tonight. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...SE swell energy from a distant low pressure system off of the southeast coast will continue to impact the waters Saturday. SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt late Sat and Sat evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A SCA will likely be needed for the Pamlico Sound late Sat into early Sunday, and maybe the Albemarle as well. Winds will shift to NW 20-25 kt behind the cold front Sat night and early Sunday with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt Sun afternoon. Seas will briefly build to 5 to 8 ft Sat night then subside to 3 to 5 ft Sun afternoon. Light winds are expected Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 kt Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front with seas building to 3 to 6 ft late. && .CLIMATE... Record high temps for Fri 2/24 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 75/1975 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 77/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) Kinston 84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 86/1982 (KNCA AWOS) Record high temps for Sat 2/25 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 77/2000 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 69/1961 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) Kinston 84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 75/1996 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EH/JME NEAR TERM...JME/EH SHORT TERM...EH LONG TERM...SK/CQD AVIATION...EH/CQD MARINE...JME/EH/CQD CLIMATE...MHX

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