Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 182221 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 621 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move into the area late tonight and stall through the weekend. This front will move south of the area early next week. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As 620 PM Friday...Latest sfc analysis shows 1006mb low over central PA, with associated front draped through the Mid- Atlantic and back through the central Mid-West, and sfc troughing over central NC. The front will continue to push S/SE tonight and may push into the northern tier early Sat morning. Afternoon convection has diminished quickly early this evening, with latest radar imagery showing a broken line of showers and storms moving through MD, VA and Western NC. Some high res models show this activity pushing SE over the next several hours and making into the northern coastal plain and Albemarle Sound region, while others shows convection dissipating before reaching the cwa. Expect most of the overnight to remain dry, with best precip chances across the NW forecast area if precip is able to hold together. Yet another very warm and muggy night with lows in the 75-80 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Friday...An unstable conditions will continue tomorrow with CAPE values ranging 3000-3500 J/kg, LI -8 and PW remaining above 2 inches. The cold front is progged to be over Eastern NC by morning and becoming stationary. This will lead to good sfc convergence and result to more showers and thunderstorms to develop late morning into the evening. Expect highs near 90 degree inland and mid 80s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Friday...For the remainder of the weekend, A cold front will move into the area Saturday Night and Sunday but quickly weaken and waver across the area. The best chance for storms this weekend will be Saturday Evening and with PWATS still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much drier air moves into the northern 2/3 of the area, with PWATS here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the southern portion of the area where lingering front or sea breeze could interact with slightly higher moisture values. Monday/Tuesday...No big changes to this period of the forecast as a cold front mentioned above washes out across our area. The biggest impact from the front will be the much drier air, with PWATS mainly around 1.5 inches. This is a bit more moisture than in previous forecast and carried a low chance of mainly diurnally driven convection both days. Expect highs in the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the beaches.. Wednesday/Thursday...The next front will move into NC Wednesday, and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front. By Friday with the frontal passage through the area, expect much drier and cooler weather. Lows Friday morning will dip into the upper 60s to around 70 inland and highs Friday will be in the lower 80s. Carried low chance PoPs for potential for widely scattered afternoon convection on Friday should the front linger in the area, but if trends hold, Friday could be a very pleasant and dry day.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 620 PM Friday...VFR conditions currently with scattered cu. Challenging forecast overnight regarding the fog and stratus potential. Brief MVFR fog and stratus will be possible late tonight and early Sat morning, with best chances at ISO and PGV, but have below normal confidence so will continue with a pred VFR forecast. Think winds will stay up enough to limit widespread fog development and guidance and forecast soundings now showing the stratus potential like the past several nights. Scattered showers and storms expected to develop again Sat afternoon, with best chances at EWN and OAJ. Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... As of 300 PM Friday...Sub VFR conditions possible Saturday night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and thunderstorms most likely . shifting to coast during evening hours. Beyond Saturday night, mainly VFR weather expected through mid week until the next front approaches Wednesday into Wednesday Night with a better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 620 PM Friday...Latest obs show S/SW 10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Gradient will continue to tighten ahead of a cold front tonight, and S/SW winds 10-20 kt will continue with seas building to 2-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 3-5 ft south. Winds will relax a bit on Saturday SW 10-15 knots with seas subsiding 2-4 ft. Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... As of 300 PM Friday...Quiet boating conditions continue on the waters through early next week. Winds will be 10 KT or less and waver direction as a front lingers and dissipates in the area through the area through Monday Night. Seas will run 1 to 3 feet through that period. Winds become southerly and begin to increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night and into Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will be around 15 KT Tuesday Night and increase to 15 to 20 KT Wednesday with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...CQD/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...RSB/CQD/BM MARINE...RSB/CQD/BM

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