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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 261846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF CORE BANKS AT PRESENT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT. WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. ONLY
SCATTERED CU FIELD FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC
MARINE...HSA/JAC