Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 181951 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 251 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. The high will continue off the coast through mid week. A weakening cold front will move into the area late week then dissipate or lift north next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 pm Sun...Mostly clear skies will continue in the evening then moisture will increase on the backside of the surface ridge as it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast with increasing clouds. WAA/weak isentropic lift will likely lead to some patchy light showers late and cont with slight chc pops inland. Low temps will drop into the lower to mid 40s by late evening and will likely remain steady for the rest of the overnight as clouds and WAA increase.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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As of 250 pm Sun...The high will continue to move further offshore with low-level theta-E ridge in place. Deep moisture remains, mainly below 700 mb so will continue slight chance PoPs. WAA continues in southerly flow, with highs in the mid to upper 60s forecast despite cloud cover.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sun...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through the region late week. Monday night through Wed...The high will cont off the coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry Tue thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with little to no forcing, though an isolated shower will be possible along the coast. Very mild this period with highs in the low to upper 60s Mon, increasing to the 75 to 80 dgr range Tue and Wed. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly 60s. Thu through Sun...Still some model differences late week into next weekend handling the next system. Continued to lean towards ECMWF/Canadian/WPC with a slower and weaker cold front sagging into the region late Thu then washing out Fri. Isolated showers possible Thu through Sat, and kept small pops, with front over region but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way of rainfall expected. Highs Thu will again reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler Fri and Sat with front S of region...however hgts/thicknesses remain high so mild temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to lower/mid 60s cst.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Mon/... As of 110 pm Sunday...VFR will dominate through late tonight as high pressure passes by to the north. As the high moves off the mid-Atlantic coast early Monday, low level moisture will overspread the area as the flow veers from east to southeast. MVFR ceilings forecast after 09Z at all 4 area terminals and will continue most of the day. Isolated light showers will be possible during the day also. Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 230 AM Sun...Ceilings forecast to become VFR Monday night into early Tuesday. VFR Tue through Thursday with high pres sfc and aloft off the coast. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Mon/ As of 250 pm Sun...Surge of northeast winds will diminish late this afternoon and early this evening as the surface ridge passes to the north and the pressure gradient relaxes. Made no change to ending time of 23Z for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. The high will move off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and further east Monday. Winds will veer from east to south in the short term. Winds and seas will remain below small craft criteria. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 230 AM Sun...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through most of the period. S/SW winds 5-15 kt expected Mon night through Thu, with seas 2-4 ft. A slow moving cold front will approach the waters from the west mid to late week.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ135- 152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...HSA/RF MARINE...HSA/RF

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