Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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920 FXUS62 KMHX 231625 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1225 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the northwest today then slide offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM Thursday...minor update for hourly temp/dew point trends. Fair and cool forecast on track with high pressure extending over area from north. /Previous discussion/ As of 630 AM Thu...Cold high pres will build in from the NW with mainly clear skies. High temps will be well below normal ranging from mid 40s NE cst to mid 50s S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM Thu...The strong high will remain centered near the area leading to good radiational cooling with light winds and mainly clr skies. Lows will range from around 30 cooler inland spots to mid/upr 30s beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 am Thu...Used an even blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will move east as a cold front approaches from the west. A light south wind Friday will push afternoon highs into the mid/upper 60s with cooler upper 50s/lower 60s on the Outer Banks. Deeper southwest flow forecast Saturday with even warmer highs reaching the lower/mid 70s with mid 60s Outer Banks. The cold front approaches from the west Sunday but deeper moisture lifts out to the north of the area during the day so will only carry slight chance PoPs. Deeper moisture in place Monday ahead of the front so bumped up PoPs to 30% all areas. Afternoon highs even warmer especially along the coastal plain with highs approaching 80. Cooler along the south coast in the lower/mid 70s and Outer Banks in the mid 60s. The front finally pushes through Tuesday and off the coast Tuesday night. Dynamics not very impressive so kept PoPs capped at 30%. Dry weather returns Wednesday with surface ridge extending into the region from the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through Friday Afternoon/... As of 1230 PM Thu...VFR conditions expected through the short term. Crystal clear skies present this afternoon, with winds 10-15 knots out of the north/northeast. Winds will occasionally gust 15-20 knots this afternoon before dropping below 10 knots tonight. Skies remain clear overnight and dewpoints begin to increase, but with the dry north wind, fog should remain mostly a non factor. Clear skies again on Friday and winds will slowly veer around to the southeast. Long Term /Fri through Monday/... As of 230 am Thu... VFR through Saturday night, then sub-VFR in isolated showers/tstms Sunday and in scattered showers/tstms Monday. Surface winds will be from the SSW 5-10 knots Friday, SW 10-15 knots Saturday, S 10-15 knots Sunday and SW 10-15 knots Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term/through Tonight/... As of 1200 PM Thursday...quick update for SCA expiration Pamlico Sound. Latest obs have gusts below 25 knots and latest guidance supports current forecast of diminishing winds through afternoon. /Previous discussion/ As of 630 AM Thu...Updated earlier to issue SCA for Pamlico Sound thru the morn as winds have been steadily increasing past cpl hrs and 06z mdls slightly stronger with winds. As high pres builds closer these winds shld diminish by around noon. Otherwise no changes with elevated seas cont today cstl waters. Prev disc...NE winds 15 to 25 kts currently will slowly diminish 10 to 15 kts by this evening...then become light ESE overnight with the high centered just to the NW. Seas of 6 to 10 ft currently will subside to 4 to 6 feet late today and reach 2 to 4 feet tonight. SCA will end later today or early evening coastal waters. Long Term /Fri through Monday/... As of 230 am Thu...A south southwest flow is forecast through the long term, with high pressure in the western Atlantic and a cold front approaching from the west early next week. Speeds will average 5-15 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet through Saturday night. Seas will build a bit early next week as the front gets closer, averaging 3-5 feet north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout, with 4-7 feet from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...HSA/SGK MARINE...RF/JBM/HSA

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