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551
FXUS62 KMHX 130612
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
212 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern
NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Areas of dense fog possible across inland ENC early this
   morning

 - Heat indices climbing to 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon

 - Scattered thunderstorm chances this afternoon

Quiet conditions will persist early this morning
with calm winds and mostly clear skies. This combination is
expected to lead to the development of areas of fog across
inland ENC later this morning, and fog could become dense around
sunrise. Some sea fog may also infiltrate the NOBX in the
vicinity of a weak boundary. This fog could also become dense
but confidence is much lower on its development and extent.

A stagnant pattern remains in place today with a
weak boundary over NE NC, and high pressure building in from the
southeast. Light and variable flow this morning will eventually
give way to a weak sea breeze which will quickly travel up the
tidal rivers and head inland this afternoon. Scattered chances
(30-40%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
initiate along or near the sea breeze, but the lingering
boundary could also provide some focus for storms as was seen
yesterday. A few stronger updrafts are possible with high
instability likely to develop, but lack of shear and some
lingering midlevel dry air will limit convective organization.
Hot and humid conditions expected again with highs in the low
90s, and heat indices climbing to 100-105 degrees in the
afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 2 AM Sun...High pressure will try to build closer
overnight, and mostly calm and clear conditions are again
expected. This will again combine to bring the potential for
patchy fog development overnight to inland areas. Lows by
tomorrow morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 2 AM Sun...Sounding like a broken record at this point as
we get into the doldrums of summer, but like in previous days
discussions, the main feature of the long term will be the daily
chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms across ENC. Will
note, while we have average to above average confidence that we
see shower and thunderstorm activity each day, we have lower
confidence in the exact locations within ENC that will be
impacted as this will be highly dependent on the days
sea/river/sound breezes and exact timing of incoming mid level
troughs. Of additional note while PoP`s each day may be closer
to 40-70%, coverage will likely remain isolated to scattered in
nature at best.

Jet stream will remain well to the north of the area through the
next several days with multiple upper troughs tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Northeast and then northern
Atlantic this week. Typical predictability issues are noted
later in the long term (Thursday and beyond) with lower
confidence in the exact strength and position of the upper
level troughs and ridges over the CONUS. But overall, the
general pattern remains the same. Our upper level features of
note remain ridging, which will either remain over the
Southeast or push W`wards into the Deep South this week. While
at the same time, two upper level lows will remain at each side
of the upper ridge. One in the western Gulf of Mexico and the
other in the Sargasso Sea. Upper low in the western Gulf tracks
west into Mexico by mid to late week, while the Sargasso Sea
upper low moves little. At the mid levels, we will have a mid
level shortwave track across the Carolinas on Mon into Tue while
a mid level low spins across the Florida Peninsula well to our
south and into the Gulf. Will have a few other weak shortwaves
move across ENC through the remainder of the week with a
slightly stronger shortwave nearing the area by this weekend.

At the surface, moisture pools and PWATs surge to greater than
2 inches across the area Mon/Tue as the previously mentioned
incoming shortwave pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. With
PWATS remaining elevated and having ample deep layer moisture
in place, any diurnal shower or storm that develops will bring
a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the
already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at
least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a
result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall on Mon/Tue across our inland counties. While
there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next
several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in
place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts
within the strongest storms. As we get later into the week,
ridging looks to overspread the Carolinas once again bringing
some upper level convergence and drier air over the area, thus
limiting precip chances before the potential for slightly higher
precip chances over the weekend. High temps each day range from
the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the entire long term
remain in the mid 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Sun...
Key Messages

 - Areas of dense fog possible early this morning

Mostly VFR conditions are present early this morning across the
airspace. With conditions calm and mostly clear, areas of fog
are expected to develop shortly over inland areas, with the
potential for dense fog later this morning around sunrise. MVFR
level fog is likely through 4-5 am, and then LIFR/IFR level
visibilities are possible through 7-8 am across all the TAF
sites except KEWN, and other inland terminals west of US 17. VFR
conditions will quickly return as fog burns off, and will mostly
continue through the day, with the exception of in and around
convection which will once again be scattered this afternoon and
evening. Tonight, VFR conditions will persist, however the
threat of patchy fog will again rise overnight and into early
tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Will have a daily threat at afternoon and
early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. This
will bring a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon and early evening across ENC. If it does rain, then
there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well
for areas that see meaningful rainfall.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Benign boating conditions are expected for the
most part across all our waters through tonight. Winds will
generally remain light today at 10 kts or less with 2-3 ft seas
forecast. A weakening boundary that currently bisects the
southern Outer Banks will gradually dissipate through the day
today with winds to the north of this boundary coming from an
E-NE direction and winds to the south coming from a SW
direction. Once this boundary dissipates, winds will become
S`rly across all waters tonight at 5-10 kts. Diurnal showers
and thunderstorms will bring a low end threat for heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty winds. Though coverage for thunderstorms
will be rather isolated in nature.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Not much change in the forecast for the long
term, with 5-15 kt S`rly winds expected through Wednesday
across all waters while seas persist at 2-3 ft as high pressure
ridging remains the dominant feature across the Southeast.
The pressure gradient may tighten slightly between ridging and
a weakening frontal boundary approaching from the west on
Thursday allowing S`rly winds to increase to 15-20 kts with a
few gusts up near 25 kts and seas building slightly to 3-4 ft
across our coastal waters. Will note, while the current forecast
does not explicitly show SCA conditions through the entire
period, we will be monitoring trends for the Thurs timeframe for
potential SCA`s. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible through the
period.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...RCF