Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 230432 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE START OF A WET PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN WATERS AS WELL. LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/JME MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME FIRE WEATHER...JBM HYDROLOGY...JBM

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