Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 271846 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST. EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WTRS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THU...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/SK

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