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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 120838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST...PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN NC FRIDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF STATES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 335 AM THU...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
USED AN OVERALL CONSENSUS. DRY COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT PRESENT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY 12Z. CIRRUS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH IT AND AM
FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NORTH FLOW. HIGHS
THROUGHOUT WILL BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 335 AM THU...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. FORECASTING WINDS TO DROP TO CALM
EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE FOR ONE
OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR. LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND AROUND 30 OUTER BANKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 335 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AFTER A VERY COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY IN A MODEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RECOVERY WITH
HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 50F.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE. LOW TEMP FORECAST A
LITTLE TRICKY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THEN READINGS WILL STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE BUT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY IN THE EAST.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKING WET AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SATURDAY THEN DEEPENING
MORE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THOSE
PERIODS. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM WITH AN
1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SE AREAS FOR THE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF STREAM GET
TAPPED AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5". THE TREND IN THE
MODELS IS FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WHICH MEANS MILDER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY AND FOR
LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER SE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE TRICKY. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHUD BE FIRMLY IN A WARM SECTOR BY AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY BUT
CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE HIGH PRES WEDGE WILL BE LAST TO BREAK DOWN. A LARGE
GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPS MAY RESULT WITH MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
(OR EVEN HIGHER IF ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUN DEVELOPS) AND MID 50S FAR
NORTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY OCCUR EARLY BUT A DELAY IN CLEARING AND
LOW LEVEL CAA MAY PREVENT A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD EASTERN TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. COOL/DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM THU...CLEAR SKIES IN THE SHORT TERM. DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT GUST IN THE MID TEENS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NORTH FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BY EARLY EVENING ALL 4 TERMINALS. VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO FOG FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRES WILL
TRACK INLAND FROM THE COAST SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED
AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PREVAILING
VFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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AS OF 335 AM WED...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED A
CONSENSUS BLEND ONCE AGAIN. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH
COAST BY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
BEGINNING TIME OF ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL DATA NEEDED TO MOVE UP THE END OF ADVISORY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE TO 00Z. ENDING TIME FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE STILL
LOOKS GOOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRM THE WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM THU...RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY ON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW FRIDAY THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE INLAND FROM
THE COAST SAT WITH SW WINDS RAMPING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH PRODUCING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO
20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC