Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 011626 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 PM SUN...NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BETTER CVRG AND IS MOVING E FASTER THAN MOST MDLS WERE INDICATING. BASED ON TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND AND PUSHED CHC/SLIGHT CHC TO MOST CSTL SITES. THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED N OF REGION WITH SRLY FLOW ALL AREAS...TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND DESPITE RAIN EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST SPOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SB CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KT THIS AFTN...MAINLY W OF HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S -4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/... AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR THINK VFR WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES AS EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR...BEST CHCS FOR THIS APPEAR TO BE THRU MID AFTN TODAY THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. ALSO COULD BE SOME SUB VFR CIGS TWRD DAYBREAK AS LOWER LVLS BECOME SATURATED. SSW WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE LATE MORN AND AFTN HOURS. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF IFR PERIODS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AS SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. PREV DISC...MDLS UNDERDONE WITH ENE SWELL CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. OVERALL THINK SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 5 FEET THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTN...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FURTHER S. SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS WILL SPREAD N THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT POSS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSW WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...WL MONITOR FOR POSS 6 FT SEAS AROUND BUOY 41025 TONIGHT WHERE WARMER SST WILL AID MIXING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD NEAR TERM...RF/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD

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