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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 080309
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A POTENT SFC LOW OFF
OUR COAST SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION.  PRECIPITATION IS BOTH
RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EVERYTHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW BUT HAVE COME DOWN NOTICEABLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH SUFFICIENT
MIXING...TEMP WILL COME DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 998MB SFC LOW OFF OF
OREGON INLET WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER EASTERN NC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING THEN OFF THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE 12Z NAM REMAINED A WESTERLY OUTLIER FOR SURFACE LOW
POSITION/TRACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF
THE COLUMN BY 06-09Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHIFT OFF THE
COAST AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN NC. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HEADLINES
MAINLY TO DIFFERENTIATE WIND GUSTS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OBX
COASTLINE AND NORTHERN SOUND COUNTIES. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE REGION SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH 10-15 MPH ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY SAT MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR INLAND AREAS
INDICATE NEAR SATURATION BELOW 1000MB AND WITH 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF GRIDS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. IF TEMPS ARE ABLE TO DROP TO
FREEZING FOR INLAND AREAS THERE COULD BE AREAS OF BLACK ICE GIVEN
LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM FRI...THE SUN WILL FINALLY COME OUT SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPS WILL BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS INLAND ZONES TO LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MUCH MORE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER TEMPERATURE WISE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ON SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RIDGE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER
MOVES EAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND MILD
PATTERN BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S ON
TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S THEN TURNING MUCH COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES PRODUCING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRI...PRED MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR THROUGH 06Z BUT OVERALL THINK IT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY MVFR. RAIN WILL GRAD END FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AS LOW
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME
SATURATED BELOW 600-800 FEET WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH BEST CHANCES INLAND AT ISO/PGV THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. ON
WEDNESDAY APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE SFC LOW SITS
OFF THE NORTHERN OBX COAST. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES OUT TO SEA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS SHOULD
BE PEAKING NOW AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS SHOW GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-45 KT
AND SEAS 15-20 FT FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH WITH 8-11 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW LOCATED OFF OREGON INLET
MOVING NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM GRADIENT. THIS WILL PLACE ALL OF
THE NC COASTAL WATERS IN STRONG N WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
NW AS LOW MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEAS PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 41025...WHICH
REMAINS OUT OF COMMISSION. GALES WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z FOR
MOST COASTAL WATERS AND 07/08Z FOR THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW THE ENDING OF THE GALES AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR SEAS TO DROP BELOW 6 FT CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SAT NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON. W WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N AROUND 15 KT LATER SUN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTH. SEAS NORTH SUNDAY
EVENING COULD APPROACH 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE OF NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WSW
WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRES TO THE
S RIDGING NORTH INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT.
WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. AT THIS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SUB ADVISORY UNTIL
BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1120 AM FRI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS PRODUCING LARGE DANGEROUS
SURF ACROSS MOST OF THE BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGEST SURF
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS BUILDING TODAY AND PEAKING
AROUND 10-15 FT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS...HIGHEST SURF WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH BREAKING WAVES AS HIGH AS 10 TO 12 FT.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. THE
PROLONGED STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WATER RISES OF 2 TO 3
FEET OVER SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO N-NW TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
MINOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING AROUND 2 FT SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND FROM RODANTHE SOUTH TO OCRACOKE.
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 2 FEET ON THE OCEAN SIDE BEACHES NORTH
OF HATTERAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LARGEST DEPARTURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. COMBINATION
OF HIGH SURF...ONSHORE WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES COULD LEAD TO
SOME IMPACTS ON HIGHWAY 12 THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ095-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ046-047-081-095.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ093>095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...