Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 220721 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 321 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE THROUGH OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S, COOLEST NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...BTC/DAG MARINE...BTC/DAG

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