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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM