Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260605 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 205 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the North Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front will cross the area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1045 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows 1018mb high pressure centered over the NE US, with Hurricane Maria about 245 miles SE of Cape Hatteras. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for most of our eastern counties: Carteret, Craven, Pamlico, Tyrrell, Outer Banks Dare and Hyde, Mainland Dare and Hyde. Please see HLSMHX for additional details. Latest radar imagery shows some light scattered showers from the outer bands of Maria moving onshore this evening. Maria will continue to advance NNW overnight and will be around 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras by 12Z Tue. N/NE winds gradually increasing overnight, highest along the coast. Rain chances will increase from east to west overnight, with 50-60% Outer Banks to 20% coastal plain. Overnight lows will range from mid 70s Outer Banks to around 70 coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 545 pm Mon...Maria will begin to turn to the northeast during the day as it begins to be influenced by an upper level trof moving in from the west. Rain chances will range from 60% Outer Banks to 30% coastal plain. Removed mention of thunder as forecast soundings show very marginal instability and SPC does not have area in any thunder. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Very windy conditions along the coast and Outer Banks with NNE winds 30-40 mph. Gusts as high as 50-55 mph possible across the Outer Banks and downeast Carteret County. Winds not as high further inland, averaging 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday...The primary forecast concern through early Thursday will be impacts associated with Hurricane Maria. Maria will move slowly off the NC coast Tuesday through Wednesday night before an approaching upper level trough and attendant cold front finally push Maria to the east sometime Thursday. Models are coming into better agreement keeping the center of Maria about 100-150 miles offshore but a large Tropical Storm wind field that currently extends 230 miles from the center and very large seas will still bring moderate to high impacts across portions of Eastern NC, especially the Outer Banks. The slow moving nature of this system will prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be associated with the large surf impacting the coast and significant beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable in typically prone areas around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and peaking at the high tide Wednesday and likely persisting into Thursday. Highway 12 along the Outer Banks could be greatly impacted and may become impassable at times, especially along Pea Island. Coastal flooding along the southern Pamlico Sound is also possible but the degree of flooding remains dependent upon how close Maria gets before recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of inundation from storm surge will be the duration and magnitude of the northerly winds across the region. The soundside of the Outer Banks from Buxton to Ocracoke, and possibly Downeast Carteret County, look to be the most vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this time. In addition, tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts are expected across the eastern third of the region with strongest winds expected across the Outer Banks. At this time, rainfall amounts look to be around 1-2 inches across the eastern half of the CWA to less than an inch across the Coastal Plain. We are not expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this time but it could be compounded across the Outer Banks by the impacts associated with storm surge. Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models do indicate a very low risk for showers, mainly east portion but not expecting much in the way of coverage and amounts. Much cooler weather is in store with Highs friday in the upper 70s- lower 80s cooling down into the mid 70s saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term /Through 06Z Wednesday/... As of 200 AM Tuesday...Lowering SCU/Stratus CIGs down to IFR at KEWN and KISO and expected at KOAJ and KPGV by 07Z. Guidance in good agreement that widespread IFR CIGs will persist until around 14-15Z, then lift to MVFR for rest of TAF period. Scattered showers along coast will possibly affect KEWN and KOAJ after 18Z. Northerly winds around 10 KT this morning will increase to around 20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT this afternoon and evening. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 315 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will move slowly N/NE off the NC coast through early Thursday. Most of the associated rain is expected to occur east of the TAF sites with only widely scattered to scattered showers expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Main concern is gusty northerly winds 20 to 30 mph and the potential for a prolonged period of IFR to MVFR ceilings through Thursday morning. Aviation conditions improve late Thursday into Friday as Hurricane Maria finally moves well away from the coast and drier air spreads into the region.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tuesday/... As of 1045 PM Monday...Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers. SCA in effect for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Building seas and increasing winds will remain the story for the NC waters. Maria will move NNW overnight, and is forecast to be around 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras at 12Z Tue. It will begin to move NE during the day Tue as an upper level trof moves in from the west. Winds will steadily increase overnight into Tuesday, with tropical storm force winds across much of the marine area Tuesday. Seas presently 8-16 feet will build to as high as 15-22 feet in the central waters Tuesday, with lower values to the north and south. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 315 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will slowly lift north off the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday Night before accelerating eastward Thursday and Friday. Models continue in agreement keeping the center of Maria about 100-150 miles offshore but with a large Tropical Storm wind field and large, dangerous seas will that will result in rough and hazardous conditions across the waters with max seas around 20 ft and boating during this period is not recommended through Thursday. Conditions are expected to begin to improve late Thursday as Maria finally moves away from the waters and winds subside to 15 to 25 kt late. Further improvement is forecast Friday and Saturday with N/NE winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas are forecast to subside below 10 ft late Thursday, and 6 ft late Friday. Seas Saturday should be 2 to 4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ098. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136. Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156- 158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/HSA NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...JME/SK AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA

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