Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 262245 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from the north tonight and move offshore Thursday. A cold front will move in from the northwest Saturday and then stall off the coast Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
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As of 645 PM Wed...Fcst on track and no changes needed. Previous discussion...As of 320 PM Wednesday...surface high pressure extending over area from north will produce fair conditions with mostly clear skies, light winds and low temperatures 66-70 inland and lower 70s coast. Strong radiational cooling may result in some patchy light fog development late tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 320 PM Wednesday...models remain in good agreement that weakening surface high will move offshore during the day. This will result in return to more typical summer conditions with winds becoming S-SW, dew points increasing to lower 70s and highs near 90 inland. 12Z GFS has some light QPF indicated for NW sections after 5 PM but other models remain dry and have kept no POP forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...High pressure will be offshore Thursday night as another cold front approaches the area Friday and cross Saturday bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The front will stall off the coast over the weekend and remain through mid week. Thursday night... High pressure will be offshore as a significant shortwave digs down from the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley with an attendant sfc low pressure beginning to move towards the Mid- Atlantic states. Models continue to show few showers or thunderstorms to develop across the northwest section of the forecast area as upper level dynamics improve with a shortwave energy cross the area. Expect overnight lows mainly in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast. Friday through Sunday...A significant shortwave/upper level low drops down from the Great Lakes and forecasted to move across the Mid-Atlantic region Friday and Saturday, while the surface low deeps further over the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday night and drags it`s associated cold front across Eastern NC Saturday. There remains some uncertainty with the models as the GFS and NAM shows impulse energy moving ahead of the main shortwave and cold front during the day on Friday while the Euro doesn`t. Meanwhile there will be decent amount of instability and increase shear (25-30 kts) while upper level dynamics is favorable... leading to support strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. SPC 3-day Outlook currently has our area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threat are damaging winds and heavy rain that could lead to minor flooding in areas with poor drainage. There remains some timing differences with the crossing of the cold front on Saturday, but once the cold front pushes through the area, models continue to trend drier, keeping most of the precip along the coastal half of the CWA both Saturday and Sunday as the frontal boundary becomes stationary well off the coast. Friday ahead of the front, expect highs in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast. Cooler behind the front Saturday with highs in the mid 80s most areas except lower 80s across the OBX. Lows expected in the 70s Friday night then mid to upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s coast Saturday night. Monday through Wednesday...Models have a general agreement with high pressure building in from the NW as the quasi-stationary front remains offshore. Kept 20-30% PoP along the coastal half as weak lows will move along the stationary boundary through Wednesday. High generally expected in the mid 80s with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term /through Thursday Afternoon/... As of 645 PM Wed...VFR conditions expected for most of the period with the exception of some MVFR fog Thursday morning. Tonight, skies will clear and winds are expected to become calm and decouple. Strong radiational cooling conditions are then expected, and this will lead to patchy fog development across the region. Have visibilities 3-5 miles in the vicinity of HWY 17 and then to the west. Thinking that areas further inland along the coastal plain have the best chance of seeing lower visibilities than this, but given long lead time and lower confidence, will keep these areas at 3-5 sm. Fog lifts quickly after sunrise and skies will be mostly clear. Light S winds expected by afternoon. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...A cold front will move into the region Friday and Saturday which will bring showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions will improve on Saturday night with VFR conditions returning.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 320 PM Wednesday...high pressure extending over area from north will weaken overnight and gradually move offshore Thursday. NE winds 10-15 KT this evening will diminish below 10 KT overnight, becoming light/variable around sunrise with high centered along coast. Winds will become SE-S in afternoon with speeds increasing to 10-15 KT northern waters. Seas 3-4 feet will subside to 2-3 feet overnight into Thursday. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 345 Tuesday... A cold front will approach the region from the NW Friday with winds becoming SW around 10-15 kt Thursday night and 15-20 kt Friday and up to 25 knots by Friday night. Seas expected to build to 3-5 ft Friday and 4-7 ft Friday night into Saturday. Models differ some on the strength SW flow but there will be a good chance of SCA conditions developing across portions of the waters sometime Friday into Friday night. The front is forecasted to move across the waters Saturday with a NW surge around 10-20 kt developing, then shifting to N Saturday night and NE Sunday. Seas expected around 3-6 ft Saturday night and Sunday, highest across the northern waters. NE winds will decrease slightly Monday to around 15 knots with seas possible subsiding 3-5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/TL SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...TL/BM MARINE...JBM/BM

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