Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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353 FXUS62 KMHX 250148 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 948 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach from the north Thursday, then remain stalled over the mid- Atlantic region through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 945 PM Sunday...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late evening update, just tweaked grids to reflect current trends. Another warm and muggy night expected with Bermuda high- type pattern. Mostly clear skies prevailing with just some thin cirrus overnight. Min temps similar to last night...73-75 inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...only change for Monday from today is models are indicating low level thickness values a few meters lower which results in max temps a degree or so cooler. Max temp forecast will reflect this but will still see several hours of Heat Indices 105 to 109 for all but Ocracoke, and posted another Heat Advisory accordingly. MAV and MET MOS dew point guidance continues to be underdone for inland sections with forecast afternoon readings in lower 70s. Both guidance products have been indicating this for past 2 days and KPGV and KOCW dew points have remained around 75 both Saturday and Sunday. Went with persistence forecast. Models continue to indicate no convective development again Monday with subsidence inversion likely keeping area capped. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...No significant changes were noted in the 24/12Z model suite which continues trend of long duration heat wave through the extended with minimal precip chances. Will highlight the dangerous heat indices through next weekend in the HWO. An east- west oriented upper ridge with above climo hts/thicknesses will be responsible for the above normal heat and humidity for most of the eastern CONUS through late week and into the weekend. Monday Night through Tuesday Night...A strong upper level ridge will build east from the southern Plains across the SE/Mid Atlantic regions producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and afternoon heat index values aoa 105 degrees. Strong subsidence and minimal short wave activity will preclude any convective activity through Monday night. Weak short wave energy moving across just to the north Tuesday along with increase in deep layer moisture with PW values building to around 2 inches, would support a very low chance for a shower or thunderstorm for the northern tier generally north of hwy 264 Tue afternoon through evening. Wednesday through Thursday...Med/long range model suite continue in good agreement with upper ridge axis shifting slightly south with some troughing developing into the Ohio valley and NE U.S. This will allow the base of the westerlies and the track of mid level shortwaves to brush NC for the mid week period, which will lead to slightly better chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms for mainly interior zones and continued low chance pops for the sct activity. Continued hot temps with dewpoints well into the 70s will continue heat indices aoa 105 which is in line with WPC values between 105-110 each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Long range model suite diverges somewhat on evolution of the heat ridge this period, with the ECMWF/CMC camp rebuilding the ridge across the southeast/mid atlantic and the GFS slightly more suppressed. Have favored the former soln due to more support from ensemble mean. This soln favors continued hot and humid, and in fact the ECMWF suggests even hotter temps for the Friday/Saturday period which will continue the long duration heat wave with heat indices nearing 110 degrees by Friday. Precip wise, have lowered pops to just slght chc each afternoon as capping inversion will limit even diurnal convection. Temps will continue mid to perhaps upper 90s for highs with very warm overnight lows mid 70s interior to low 80s beaches. Sunday may finally bring some relief in the oppressive heat/humidity if short wave across the great lakes region can push a cool front towards E NC which would bring a better chance of showers/storms to the area. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short term /Through Monday/... As of 945 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently with few/sct high clouds. Will trend with persistence given little/no change to airmass. Some patchy sub-VFR fog will be possible overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds, with best chances at OAJ, similar to this morning. Sct diurnal cu expected to develop again Monday with light SW winds. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the long term as strong mid level ridging persists across the region with only minimal convective activity expected mainly during the afternoon/evening for Wed/Thur. With any storm, conditions will tempo drop to sub VFR. May see patchy BR each night as humidity vals will be high and winds light. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Monday/... As of 945 PM Sunday...Latest obs show S/SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots across the outer central and northern waters...with seas 1-3 feet. Persistence forecast during period with little change in surface pressure pattern indicated. Southwest winds will continue cycle of speeds around 15 KT this evening, lowering to around 10 KT overnight into Monday morning, then increasing again Monday afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet through Monday morning, increasing to 2-3 feet Monday afternoon. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 330 PM Sunday...The models continue to indicate typical Bermuda high/inland thermal trough pattern through the period, resulting in persistent SW flow around 15 KT across the waters. Winds may pick up to up to 20 KT during the late afternoon and evening hours as the thermal land/sea gradient maximizes. A weak cold front may approach the northern waters late Wed into Thur which will decrease the winds. The front will quickly weaken though with SW winds 15 KT re-developing by Friday as the thermal gradient increases again. Seas will be 2-3 feet through the period with some 4 ft sets across outer waters for late afternoon/evening period Tue coinciding with the gustier SW winds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CQD/TL MARINE...JBM/CQD/TL

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