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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 020754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SAT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE DATA INDICATES THE WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CENTERED ON A LINE FROM NEAR SOUTHPORT IN
BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTH TO JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT THEN NORTHEAST
TO NEAR NORFOLK VA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
INTO OH/PA BY THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THESE FEATURES PLACE EASTERN NC IN
A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE INLAND STALLED BOUNDARY TO PRODUCED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION LATER TODAY SO
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND WITH 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. NO
CHANGE TO FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT SEEM AS
FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF SPIN-UPS LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AND HAVE SEEM SOME COUPLETS OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SAT...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH THE
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO OH/WV/PA. NO REAL CHANGE TO
PRECIP TRIGGERS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAMING NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN MAKING
TIMING OF PRECIP DIFFICULT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2
INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA. WPC AND
FORECAST MODELS INDICATING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMALS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90S INLAND
AND MID TO UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SAT...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING NEAR SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR OAJ/EWN WHERE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THESE SITES PRIOR TO DAWN. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT ALTHOUGH
CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES UP THE COAST IN THE MOIST SSW FLOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENC IN FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING DIURNAL IN
NATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING A SE WIND
MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN THE
2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN SWELLS FROM TC BERTHA BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY SHOWING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE. CURRENT NHC AND MODEL
CONSENSUS RE-CURVES THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE...GREATER THAN 300
MILES...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO
MARINE CONCERNS...AND BEACH-GOERS WITH AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT
THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/DAG
MARINE...JAC/DAG