Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 250806 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 406 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...PROBLEM AREA WILL BE KPGV THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH STEAM FOG PRODUCING PERIOD OF IFR/OCNL LIFR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF AREA WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY PSBL AT KISO 09Z-12Z. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/ AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT. NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/ AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JBM/HSA

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