Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 211436 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1036 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW TODAY IN THE WAKE OF OFFSHORE MOVING COLD FRONT. DRY WEST FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AT THE COAST. WINDS A BIT GUSTY THRU MIDDAY THEN DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SHUNTED OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH DRIER SOLUTION WITH GFS APPEARING TO HAVE A WET BIAS. DETERMINISTIC NAM/SREF/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF, THEREFORE HAVE NO HIGHER THAN A 25 POP LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY LOWER YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT THOUGH GUIDANCE IS EXHIBITING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. DETERMINISTIC 00Z CMC/GFS INDICATE A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE LOW BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOR NOW AND INDICATE A COOLER REGIME WITH STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS. GENERAL COOLER PATTERN WOULD PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY YIELDING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC THURSDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 2 PM AS SEAS WILL STILL BE AROUND 6 FT FOR OUTER WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NC WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY, 5-15 KT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING 20-25 KT AND SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OFF OCRACOKE. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AROUND 5-15 KT WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 2-4 FT, 1-2 FT NEARSHORE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP SHORT TERM...LEP LONG TERM...DAG/TL AVIATION...DAG/TL/LEP MARINE...BTC/TL/LEP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.