Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 130940 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 440 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area today. Low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. A cold front will cross the region late Thursday. Low pressure will pass near the coast Friday. High pressure will build over the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...The cold front has moved through the area followed by a quick shot of modified arctic air today. Skies have cleared with breezy inland/windy conditions coast this morning. Winds will briefly diminish this afternoon but increase again late tonight. Will end the Outer Banks Wind Advisory at 11Z based on the latest model wind forecasts which indicate a quicker diminishing trend. Strong cold advection will be tempered by full insolation and downslope flow, thus went closer to the MAV/MET MOS vs the colder ECMWF. Expect highs north in the upper 30s to the lower 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As 330 AM Wednesday... A clipper low pressure system will pass to the north of the region tonight producing increasing winds and a period of mostly cloudy skies this evening. Precipitation chances with this system will occur north of the state as the sub cloud layer over Eastern NC is forecast to be very dry. Think low temps will occur before midnight when winds will be lightest, then increasing SW flow will lead to warming temps late. Expect min temps inland in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s closer to the coast. The immediate coast should remain above freezing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...An upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS through the rest of the week with a series of shortwaves moving through the flow aloft, although expect dry conditions as moisture will be limited. Weak ridging builds into the area this weekend with a system moving into the region early next week bringing a better chance of rain. Thursday and Thursday night...The shortwave trough pushes offshore Thu morning and will see clearing skies early with WSW flow continuing much of the day with the front progged to push through late in the day. Low level thicknesses suggest highs generally around 50-55. High pressure briefly builds into the region Thu night with lows expected in the low to mid 30s inland around 40 along the coast. Friday and Friday night...Another mid level trough approaches the region Fri and pushes across the region Fri night. Weak low pressure develops across the Southeast in response and lifts across or just off the NC coast Fri. Will likely see more clouds than the previous system but the sub-cloud layer remain fairly dry and not anticipating any precip. The low lifts NE of the area Fri night and deepens with CAA ramping up. Highs Fri generally in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low 30s inland to around 40 coast Fri night. Saturday through Sunday...Weak ridging and sfc high pressure build into the region this weekend keeping conditions dry. Cool temps expected Sat with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 and lows in the lower 30s inland to around 40 along the coast Sat night. High pressure moves offshore Sun with increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Return flow will bring a warming trend Sun with highs expected in the mid 50s to around 60. Sunday night through Tuesday...A better chance of rain expected early next week as a series of shortwave troughs lift out of the southern plains and lift across the area tapping into Gulf moisture. There remains some spread among guidance, especially with the timing of the systems, so confidence is rather low in this regard but it appears the best chance for widespread precip comes Sunday night and Monday. Slower guidance suggests precip may linger through Tuesday. Temps expected to be above normal this period with predominant SW to W flow across the region. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Expecting clear skies with gusty NW winds to 20 kt this morning diminishing this afternoon and evening, then increasing out of the SW with gusts to 20 kt possible late tonight. A mid cloud deck associated with low pressure passing by to the north will move across the area this evening, then skies should clear late. There will be a LLWS threat tonight as wind fields increase aloft. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term. A shortwave trough and weak surface low pressure push across the region Fri bringing increasing clouds but cigs expected to remain VFR. High pressure builds back into the region over the weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the next system approaching the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...Ongoing Gale force NW winds will diminish to 10 to 20 kt this afternoon as high pressure briefly builds over the waters through this evening. Winds are then forecast to back to the SW and increase again to minimal Gale force late this evening as low pressure moves north of the waters overnight and tightens the pressure gradient. Thus will extend the Gale Warnings through tonight south of Oregon Inlet and for the Pamlico Sound. 7-10 ft seas early this morning will subside to 3 to 5 ft late today then build rapidly to 7 to 10 ft late this evening. Water levels across the western portions of the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers of to 1 to 2 feet below normal early this morning will increase to normal levels this afternoon. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 415 AM Wednesday...Several shortwave troughs and attendant cold fronts push across the waters through the long term bringing poor boating conditions much of the period. WNW winds around 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt with seas around 6-10 ft southern/central waters and 4-7 ft north to start Thu gradually diminishes through the day as low pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast. The attendant cold front pushes through late Thu with winds becoming WNW around 10-20 kt, then becomes NE around 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft Thu night with weak high pressure building in from the north. A weak area of low pressure is progged to move across the waters Fri with winds becoming SW around 10-20 kt by late Fri afternoon, then NW around 15-25 kt Fri night as the low rapidly deepens off the mid-Atlantic and New England coast. Seas build back to 4-7 ft late Fri and Fri night. Winds gradually diminish to W to NW around 10-15 kt Sat afternoon with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft late as high pressure builds into the region. Winds veer and weaken Sat night becoming E around 10 kt Sun morning, then becomes S around 10-20 kt Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore the the next system approaches from the west. Seas around 1-3 ft Sun morning build to around 3-5 ft late in the day. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ103-104. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NCZ103-104. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-152-154-156- 158. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ130-131- 150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK

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