Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 070936 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 536 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY ...THEN MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE INLAND TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG ACRS INLAND AREAS SPLY COASTAL PLAINS. SFC PATN RMNS THE SAME WITH A SFC TROF ACRS THE TN/OH VLY AND A SFC RIDGE OFFSHORE AND TO THE S PROVIDING A MOIST S-SW LOW LVL FLOW ACRS ENC. AN UPR LVL SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE SHEARING OUT TO N...RESULTING IN WEAK VORT ENERGY ALONG NC COAST AND PUSHING INTO COASTAL PLAINS. CONT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS JUST ALONG COAST THIS MORNING...THEN CHC POPS NW HALF OF AREA IN THE AFTN WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC SE HALF. MAX TEMPS TODAY AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...INLAND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG. MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLP ALG SRN COASTAL AREAS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW 20 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY. MUGGY CONDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S ALG THE COAST WITH A LIGHT S-SW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL REGIME AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF KEEP MINIMAL LIFT AND FORECAST QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY WITH NO POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS INLAND FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS MOVING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS THE INLAND TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...POPS RETURN TO SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOW/MID 90S AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...FOG AND LOW STRATUS INLAND SPLY COASTAL PLAINS...THRU ABT 13Z THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN THE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT AND CU DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. WITH A SFC TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LWR VSBYS/CIGS INVOF OF CONVECTION. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB- VFR. A BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE INDICATING WINDS S-SW 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. PERSISTENCE FCST DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN CONTINUING. WINDS S-SW 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FOOTERS OFFSHORE. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NE/E BEHIND IT ON SATURDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...JAC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...JAC/CTC MARINE...JAC/CTC

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