Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 282021 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 421 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will lift back north this evening. A stronger front will approach from the northwest Monday and Tuesday, and stall along the coast through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM Sunday...Cluster of convection has developed along and just north of the Albemarle Sound near surface low located along the NC/VA border and weak convergence along frontal boundary that is slowly moving north toward VA. Rest of the area remains fairly well capped despite strong instability and plentiful solar heating. Latest run of the 3km HRRR shows additional convection to develop across the central and southern CWA around 02z or so. Will forecast scattered PoPs with the higher values inland through after midnight with precipitation rapidly dissipating in the post- midnight hours. CAPE values at or above 3000 J/kg and LI`s in the -5 to -6 range will continue for the next few hours and any storms that are able to develop in our inland areas could quickly become strong to severe. High winds remain the primary threat given fairly high freezing levels/wet- bulb zeroes heights this evening. Another mid-summer night in terms of temperatures expected with lows in the low/mid 70s over most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday...In many ways, Monday will be a repeat of today with a capping inversion keeping the convection at bay until later in the afternoon or evening hours per latest 3km NAM and GFS. The entire CWA remains in a Slight Risk of Severe thunderstorms and would again expect strong gusty winds to be the primary threat. Maintained PoPs in the 30-40 percent range for Monday afternoon and evening. MOS numbers and 850 temperatures show that Memorial Day could be the warmest day of the year so far for some spots, especially near the coast where highs could approach 90 degrees with even mid/upper 80s over the central and northern Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 415 PM Sunday...An unsettled pattern will be the rule through the extended period as shortwaves/disturbances move through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or near the area. These features will lead to continued low confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations of shortwaves/frontal boundaries across area. Monday night...Expect any afternoon or evening convection to linger overnight as weak shortwaves move through WSW flow aloft. There will also be a weak front approaching the area. GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE values of 500-1500 with deep layer shear (0-6km) increasing to 40-45 knots, thus concern for strong to severe storms remains. SPC continues to keep the area in a Slight Risk of severe for their Day 2 Outlook. Kept PoPs in 30 to 40 percent range overnight. Lows remaining muggy, 70-74. Tuesday-Tuesday night...A weak front is expected to stall across or just northwest of the area Tuesday, and wash out across area with additional short wave energy resulting in another period of mainly diurnally driven showers and t-storms. Tuesday afternoon convection could be similar to or exceed Monday`s activity, mainly because of better moisture focused along the stalled front and channeled shortwave/vorticity over the region coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and lower thicknesses will keep max temps mainly in the 80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk of severe for their Day 3 Outlook with continued instability and shear. Wednesday-Thursday...Another weak front will sag southeast into the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than previous Mon-Tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible, severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Latest guidance suggests the front should move offshore late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, yielding lower PoPs to only slight chance, and latter shifts may be able to remove PoPs for Thursday. Low level thicknesses will build near 1400 meters supporting max temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s along the coast/OBX. Friday-Sunday...Low confidence for this forecast period due to poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and followed closely with blended guidance approach. Higher chance PoPs for Friday with the front lifting back north, helping to focus moisture over the area through the weekend. Max temps generally in the mid 80s inland with low 80s along the coast, and lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term /through 18Z Monday/ As of 315 PM Sunday...Still anticipate mostly VFR conditions through this TAF cycle. Some scattered convective activity expected later this evening but some question as to the amount of coverage, but think any reductions to ceilings and vsbys will be short-lived. Gusty SW winds this afternoon will become W/WNW and diminish by late tonight and Monday morning. Light mixing should preclude most fog overnight. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ As of 420 PM Sunday...Expect periods of sub-VFR aviation conditions with convective activity each afternoon and evening from Monday night through Wednesday. Less coverage for Thursday as a weak front should move more offshore. Sub-VFR will again be possible Friday afternoon/evening as showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Tonight and Monday/ As of 320 PM Sunday...Winds are a bit gusty over the central and southern waters and Pamlico Sound and will bump up winds to 15-20 knots through the evening before winds become more westerly and drop off to 10-15 knots later tonight and Monday. Per local NWPS/SWAN guidance, seas should remain in the 2 to 4 foot range through the forecast period. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ As of 420 PM Sunday...The period will experience zonal flow with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that occurs, except that by Thursday the front should push through at least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern half of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period but northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but with speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3 feet during the extended period. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing reasonable for the extended seas forecast.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/CTC MARINE...DAG/CTC

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