Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200600 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 100 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Monday, and then move offshore Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast near the coast early Wednesday and again Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1 am Monday...No changes needed. High pressure continues to build east into the Tennessee Valley at late evening as low pressure exit off the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures have already fallen into the 40s in most areas and lows should drop into the low/mid 30s over most land areas ranging to the mid 40s for the Outer Banks. Skies will be clear through the overnight hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 210 PM Sun...High pressure will continue to build in from the west Monday, making for an overall pleasant day, though temps will remain below normal. Low level thickness values and mostly sunny skies support highs in the low to mid 50s for the Outer Banks, and mid 50s to around 60 degrees inland. Min RH values will drop to 25-30 percent inland Mon afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Sun...High pressure shifts off the coast late Monday night and Tuesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning and become stationary off the coast of the southeast states. Areas of low pressure will move northeast along the front Thanksgiving Day into Friday. Monday night and Tuesday...There will be the potential for frost for those coastal counties that have not yet ended the growing season Monday night/Tue morning (Mainland Hyde, Pamlico and Carteret)...with temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Warmer southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder temps, with highs in the lower to upper 60s. Wednesday thru Friday...A cold front will move off the coast Wednesday morning and stall over the offshore waters of the southeast states. A few waves of low pressure will move northeast along the front during this time. The best chance for rain during this time will be mainly east of Highway 17 with PoPs no higher than 40-50% High temps will be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then the lower to mid 50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s along the south coast and Outer Banks. Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50 south coast and OBX. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s coastal plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX. Saturday...The offshore front will move off to the east as a deep upper trof sweeps in from the west. Highs will be around 60 after morning lows in the upper 30s inland, with upper 40s to lower 50s Outer Banks. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term /Through 00Z Tuesday/... As of 1 am Monday...VFR conditions will continue through this TAF cycle as strong high pressure builds across the region. Skies will be clear with light and variable winds. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 230 am Sun...VFR conditions forecast Monday night and Tuesday. Sub-VFR in light rain Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, with the best chance at EWN and OAJ. Only isolated activity at PGV and ISO.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Monday/... As of 1 am Monday...Made some adjustments to headlines based on recent obs. Have dropped SCA for the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River, and for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and south of Ocracoke. Based on latest wind forecast, have trimmed back the ending time of the SCA for the waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke to 11Z. Prev disc...N/NW winds early Mon morning become W/NE 10 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft by late afternoon. Could see some lower water on the western inland rivers through early Monday morning, about a foot below normal, given the NW flow but not enough to warrant an advisory at this point. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 230 am Sun...Winds Tuesday will be SSE 5-10 kts. Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with winds becoming north 15-20 knots and continuing through Thanksgiving Day. Seas on Tuesday only 1-2 feet. However, seas will very quickly build to 5-8 feet north of Cape Lookout and 4-6 feet south following the passage of the cold front Wednesday morning.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135-152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CQD/HSA AVIATION...HSA/CTC/BM MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD

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