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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 161922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST. WEAK LOW MOVING UP STATIONARY FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL SEND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THEN TURN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. TEMPS WILL VARY FROM MID 40S
ON THE OUTER BANKS WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST...TO MID 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL
RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY SO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO MID 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO COME IN WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP THE GULF STREAM. MOISTURE AND LIGHT QPF
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PRECIP MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AHEAD OF A FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PEAKING IN THE MID 70S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & THU/
AS OF 330 AM WED...NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. VFR/SKC WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2.5 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING
THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER THAT AROUND 3.5 KFT. NO RAIN
IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS INCREASE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LIKELY SOME MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & THU/
AS OF 330 AM WED...NE-SW ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEKEND IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AS SEAS SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE GULF STREAM OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND STRONG
1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD DROP OFF TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM WED...WINDS HAVE ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY
HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST IS OCCURRING ABOUT NOW. HAVE DROPPED HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA