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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 301053
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM FRIDAY...BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT. HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND RAISED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRETHS. WITH WEAK WAA...TEMPS HAVE RISEN THIS MORNING WITH MOST
LOCALES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY THEN
GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG CAA TAKES OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE A CLEAR...COLD AND BREEZY NIGHT
AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. LOWS AREA-WIDE SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY SATURDAY BECOMES WESTERLY LATE AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO 1280-1290 METERS YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A NON-DIURNAL TREND AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF
THE COAST...ALLOWING A MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA
WHICH WOULD ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF
AND BEGINNING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS...AS THE GFS/GEM
AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALSO
SUGGEST BETTER AGREEMENT. NO P-TYPE ISSUES AREA EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST
NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING.
RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST.
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NC SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/GEM BEING THE FASTER SOLUTIONS AND
THE ECMWF BEING THE MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONGST
MODELS HAVE DECREASED POPS TO 25-35 PERCENT WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN SNOW MIX AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT FROZEN
PTYPES...EVEN IN THE SLOWER VERSION OF THE ECMWF...AND ESPECIALLY
SINCE ITS DAY 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IF GFS/GEM WERE TO
VERIFY...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW AS IT DEPARTS OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL ADD TO THIS TAF CYCLE. BEYOND THAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS QUICKLY BECOME SCATTERED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND CLEAR BY LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG ISSUES.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS 555 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS COLD
FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST WIND GUIDANCE...HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH THE
PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINING WATERS INCLUDING THE INLAND RIVERS WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN MODEL FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH CAPPED NORTHERN WATERS
AT 12 FEET AT THIS TIME AS SEAS BUILD DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
10-12 FT RANGE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6 FT LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR NW WINDS AS LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAS STRUGGLED RECENTLY IN
NW FLOW. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND INCREASING SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE
25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG