Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 240857 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 357 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered in the southern plains today will pass through the Carolinas Thursday, moving off the coast this weekend. A cold front will move through from the west Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west behind the front early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 330 am Wed...High pressure over the southern plains will gradually expand into the region as the upper trof axis lifts out. A very dry airmass in place will result in sunny skies. Cool high temps though, with west northwest flow. Highs will be in the mid 50s, except lower 50s Outer Banks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 am Wed...Well-defined mid-level shortwave will pass through the area tonight. Moisture will be quite limited, so only scattered clouds will be associated with it. Winds will veer to a more northerly direction, so good cold air advection will result in colder lows. Lows will range from around 30 on the coastal plain to mid 30s south coast and along the sounds. Mid to upper 30s for the Outer Banks.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure building in will bring dry conditions and seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another threat for showers late Saturday night into Monday morning. Thursday through Friday night...Will see height rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the mid/upper 40s along the coast to lower 50s inland Thursday and upper 40s/lower 50s coast and mid to perhaps upper 50s inland on Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 20s/lower 30s inland to mid 30s along the coast Thursday night and Saturday through Tuesday...The upper ridge and sfc high pressure continues to slide eastward Saturday as an upper trough and sfc cold front approach the region from the west. 00z ECMWF and CMC remain in good agreement with the strength of the upper trough and timing of the frontal system. The GFS has been the outlier and the latest run has trended a little wetter but not as much QPF as the other models. Could see a few WAA showers late Saturday night into early Sunday as increasing southerly flow brings increasing moisture across the region but best forcing for ascent still expected to occur late Sunday/Sunday night as the region will be in the right front quadrant of the upper jet. Models continue to indicate a high shear environment but little to no instability with LI`s remaining positive. The front is progged to push offshore late Sunday night with lingering showers continuing into Monday morning. Upper ridging and sfc high pressure build in from the west for the middle of next week with dry conditions expected. The ECMWF does bring a secondary shortwave trough across the region Tuesday producing a few light showers but it is not supported by the GFS or CMC and will keep PoPs at a minimum for Tuesday at this time. Southerly flow bring warmer temps Saturday and Sunday with highs climbing into the mid 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along the coast with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Temps drop back to near normal behind the front Monday with highs expected in the 50s with a bit more cooling expected for Tuesday with highs around 50 inland to mid 40s coast.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /through tonight/... As of 1230 am Wed...VFR through the short term. A very dry airmass will be in place so no fog is forecast. An upper level shortwave will pass through tonight with scattered mid-level clouds but no precip forecast. Surface winds will be from the west northwest through the period. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 345 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region for the latter half of the week. Will see increasing clouds Saturday ahead of the next frontal system approaching the region but expect cigs to remain VFR at this time. Cigs lower Saturday night into early Sunday with sub-VFR conditions possible. The best chance for reduced cigs/vsbys come Sunday afternoon and Sunday night coincident to best forcing/deepest moisture across the region with the front pushing across rtes late Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through tonight/ As of 330 am Wed...Small craft advisory will remain in effect until 7am from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. Buoy obs show seas at Diamond Shoals steadily subsiding in the west to northwest flow. The ending time still looks on track and made no changes. Northwest flow will be the rule in the short term as high pressure expands into the region from the southwest. Winds will average 5-15 knots today. Tonight however, a strong upper level shortwave will pass through with the surface pressure gradient temporarily tightening up. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, but seas throughout are forecast to remain below 6 feet so no advisories are forecast. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 345 AM Wednesday...Expect NW winds around 10-20 kt Thursday with seas around 3-5 ft, becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft Thursday night. N to NE winds around 10 kt or less Friday gradually veer to easterly by late Friday with seas around 2-3 ft. SE winds increase to 10-15 kt Saturday with seas building to 2-4 ft late in the day head of an approaching frontal system. Sly winds increase to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft Saturday night and 15-25 kt with seas peaking around 5-8 ft Sunday. The front is currently progged to push across the waters late Sunday night.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...HSA/SK MARINE...HSA/SK

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