Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 300130 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 930 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will meander north and south across the area through the weekend and into early next week with an unsettled pattern continuing over the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...Strong/severe convection ongoing over central NC this evening is moving/developing eastward into the coastal plain counties. Think loss of diurnal heating will limit it`s severe potential across eastern NC but 30 kts of bulk shear should be enough to sustain current multi-cellular activity through the evening hours. Have increased pops slightly inland and extended the higher precipitation chances out to 06Z. Surface analysis indicates the surface cold front extending from the Albemarle Sound west across the northern coastal plain. It appears the cold pool over central NC is strong enough to push this boundary south across the entire area overnight with a light easterly flow developing across the area. This flow may be more conducive to the development of widespread low clouds and patchy fog late tonight than we thought earlier. Lows will range from the upper 60s/lower 70s inland to the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 410 PM Wednesday, most all guidance points to a more active sea breeze on Thursday. Airmass will be moderately unstable with LI`s in the -5 to -6 range. Combination of sea breeze and weak troughing inland should act to enhance any convective activity during the afternoon and evening. Much of inland eastern NC is under a Marginal Threat of severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening with the primary threat being gusty winds with perhaps some marginally large hail. Temperatures will be fairly uniform with highs mid/upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...Unsettled weather pattern will continue through early next week as a frontal boundary remains over Eastern NC. Thursday night through Monday... Broad mid-upper level trough will persist through Friday and then becoming more zonal on Saturday. While at the surface the frontal boundary will lift north and west of our FA Thursday night through Saturday. Frontal boundary will start to move slowly southward on Saturday as another cold front approaching from the Midwest. Threat of scattered showers and thunderstorm continues for Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven. Have increased POPs for Saturday as 12z NAM/GFS and 00z ECMWF has the boundary moving a little quicker compared to previous runs and stalling across Eastern NC. Due to deep moisture convergence and high PW across, expecting heavy rain across the area. The frontal boundary will continue to remain across the area through Monday before washing out or moving farther across our southern zones. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid 80s coast with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday night through Wednesday...The latest models differs with the next feature affecting the region. GFS has a strong shortwave moving out from the Midwest Monday night with a low developing over the Middle Atlantic states, while ECMWF is much weaker with the energy and the development of the low. What is consistent is a frontal boundary affecting the area on Wednesday. Have continued the mentioned of scattered showers and thunderstorms for each day as PW remain high (AOA 2 inches). Low level SW flow returns with gradual warm up expected. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid 80s coast with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through 18Z Thursday/... As of 635 PM Wednesday...Not seeing as strong of a signal in the observations and aviation guidance to support widespread sub VFR conditions overnight. The forecast soundings were drier in the lower levels than last night and the NARRE and HRRR guidance was indicating primarily VFR conditions. Will continue with previous forecast of MVFR visibilities but will not a forecast a ceiling as am not convinced widespread low clouds develop due to the shallowness of forecast moisture profiles overnight. Expect VFR conditions Thursday outside scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 330 PM Wed...Mainly VFR conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly diurnal driven. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible with heavier downpours. Possible brief patchy fog and stratus each morning as low level moisture will be high and calm/light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...Had to revamp the wind forecast tonight into Thursday. The surface cold front was currently located across the northern waters and Albemarle Sound. It now appears that this boundary is going to driven south through all the waters overnight with the flow become northerly later tonight then easterly toward dawn. Sustained speeds will be 10 to 15 KT. Thursday winds will veer to the south 10 to 15 KT. Seas, per local NWPS/SWAN model should continue at 2-3 feet. Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 330 PM Wed...Frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region. Winds will generally be southerly, 5-15 knots through Friday, and increasing to 10-20 knots Friday night. Seas will mainly be 2-4 feet, but could see seas building up to 5 feet along the outer periphery of our coastal zones late Friday into Saturday. The front will push southward into the area Saturday and then stall across the NC waters into early next week. Wind directions becomes tricky Sunday and into early next week due to the placement of the frontal boundary. Expect 5-15 knots mainly N/NE behind the front and SW ahead of it. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters during each afternoon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC NEAR TERM...JME/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JME/BM MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM

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