Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 301053 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 553 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 550 AM FRIDAY...BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND RAISED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS. WITH WEAK WAA...TEMPS HAVE RISEN THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCALES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY THEN GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA TAKES OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE A CLEAR...COLD AND BREEZY NIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWS AREA-WIDE SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 405 AM FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY SATURDAY BECOMES WESTERLY LATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO 1280-1290 METERS YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A NON-DIURNAL TREND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING A MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS...AS THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST BETTER AGREEMENT. NO P-TYPE ISSUES AREA EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NC SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/GEM BEING THE FASTER SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF BEING THE MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE DECREASED POPS TO 25-35 PERCENT WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN SNOW MIX AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT FROZEN PTYPES...EVEN IN THE SLOWER VERSION OF THE ECMWF...AND ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS DAY 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IF GFS/GEM WERE TO VERIFY...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW AS IT DEPARTS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ADD TO THIS TAF CYCLE. BEYOND THAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS QUICKLY BECOME SCATTERED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CLEAR BY LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG ISSUES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS 555 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS COLD FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST WIND GUIDANCE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH THE PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING WATERS INCLUDING THE INLAND RIVERS WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH CAPPED NORTHERN WATERS AT 12 FEET AT THIS TIME AS SEAS BUILD DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6 FT LATE SATURDAY EVENING. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NW WINDS AS LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAS STRUGGLED RECENTLY IN NW FLOW. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-137. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG

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