Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 230218 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1018 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a cold front stalls near the area and several low pressure areas move along it. High pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1015 PM Monday...While convection has largely ended across eastern NC, large area of mostly light rain continues to work east into our far southwestern CWA. Most all of the short range guidance indicates widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms after 06z and especially toward the early morning hours. Have updated the PoPs and have the highest values (high likely to categorical) over the southern zones with high chance over the northern areas where the precipitation will take longer to overspread the area. No changes to the forecast overnight low temperatures with mostly areas between 65 and 70 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Mon...Cold front will continue to approach from the west Tuesday, as a weak area of low pressure develops along the front then lifts through the coastal plain, and off the VA coast by Tuesday evening. Numerous showers and storms expected with precip coverage expected to be more widespread than previous days. Will continue likely to categorical pops. Widespread clouds and precip expected, which will limit overall instability, but could still see an isolated strong storm develop with increasing shear. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall likely, as PWAT values increase to around 2". Low level thickness values, S/SW winds and cloudy skies support highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday...Latest models continue to indicate wet, stormy period into Thursday, followed by much drier weather toward the end of the week and weekend. Upper trough digging from northern plains into SE US will lead to slow-moving frontal boundary Tuesday night into Thursday. System will lift north and east of area Thursday night with dry high pressure for Friday- Saturday. Return of jet energy will bring return of convective threat Sunday into Monday. Tuesday night...Have leaned toward a 12Z NAM/ECMWF blend with a secondary low moving along stalled frontal boundary SW to NE across northern sections during the night. GFS shows a similar short wave to these models but no surface reflection indicated. Will carry likely POPs all zones through the night with good coverage of showers and scattered tstms with locally heavy rain threat. Wednesday...Models in general agreement with lull in activity during the morning but kept POPs 30-50% with frontal boundary stalled across area. Short wave energy approaching again during afternoon and increased POPs to likely again for SW 2/3 of area. Wednesday night...Another period of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected with likely POPs all zones. Threat of strong to marginally severe storms will increase slightly with bulk shear up to 50 KT but instability and CAPE will be limited. QPF will indicate potential for another one- half to one inch additional rainfall. Thursday...evolving upper low and associated trough will move into area with dry slot likely spreading in from SW during the day. Main activity will be along coast in morning and moving offshore during afternoon, but at least chance POPs for all zones during the day. Thursday night...continued chance POPs during evening with upper trough moving across, then drying expected overnight with deep west to NW flow developing. Friday-Saturday...ridging surface and aloft expected to produce dry period. GFS does bring short wave energy back quickly across northern sections Saturday afternoon but appears to be a fast outlier at this time. Sunday-Monday...increased short wave energy with surface and upper ridges moving offshore will result in return of at least chance POPs for convective development each day. Tuesday night-Thursday period will see min temps 5-10 degrees above normal while clouds and precip will keep max temps a few degree below normal. Near normal for Friday-Saturday, then above normal for Sunday-Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/... As of 720 PM Monday...VFR conditions continue with generally mid and high-level clouds blowing off of convection generally south and east of the TAF sites. Scattered convection should become more widespread toward morning and have indicate VCTS with lowering ceilings to MVFR after 09z or 10z and continuing through the day on Tuesday with vsbys around 5 miles in showers. Some patchy IFR conditions will possible once any heavier showers and potential thunderstorms develop on Tuesday. Long Term /Tue night through Saturday/... As of 330 PM Monday...Sub-VFR likely in periods of heavier rain and thunderstorms Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. A return to VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday with drier weather building across the terminals. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 1015 PM Monday...After a brief period of N/NNE winds behind line of convection earlier in the evening, winds are now SSW/SW over the coastal waters and sounds at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts approaching 20 knots. Seas remain at 3-4 feet with 8/9 second wave period. No real changes needed to the current marine forecast as SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt by midday on Tuesday with seas building to 5-9 feet. SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters starts around midday Tuesday and will persist into Weds for the Pamlico Sound and northern waters and into late week elsewhere. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 PM Monday...Gusty winds will continue into Thursday night while elevated seas will linger into Friday. Low pressure moving along frontal boundary mainly inland of waters will produce periods of SW 15-25 KT winds into Thursday. There is some model differences on Wednesday with GFS indicating wind shift and lighter winds for northern sections as front stalls over central waters, while ECMWF and NAM keep front stalled over northern sections with moderate SW flow for most of waters. Have leaned toward ECMWF/NAM with main result of lingering elevated seas. Strongest winds likely Wednesday into early Thursday with stronger low moving across to NW and could see solid 20-25 KT over southern and central waters. Wind shift to westerly behind front Thursday evening with speeds diminishing into Friday night, followed by return to SW late Saturday. NWPS used for seas most of period. Heights 6-9 feet Tue night will subside briefly to 5-7 ft Wed, then build to 7-11 ft by Thu morning. Diminishing winds will allow seas to subside below 6 ft Friday evening and to 2-3 ft Saturday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...CTC/JBM/CQD MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD

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