Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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254 FXUS62 KMHX 291103 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 703 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore is expected to remain steady through early next week, with a Piedmont trough producing chances for thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 645 AM Thurs...Another cool morning in Eastern NC, with high pressure just off the coast and clear skies. Lows have reached the upper 50s inland, and low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Have continued slight chance for showers through mid morning over the southern coastal waters near Cape Lookout as some very isolated shower activity persists. SE flow will develop later today as high pressure settles in off the coast. This will lead to an increase in dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s inland, with low 80s expected along the coast. Some patchy high based cumulus clouds are possible this afternoon, but otherwise it will be mostly clear. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM Thurs...Radiational cooling again will allow temps to drop into the mid to low 60s again tonight. Closer to the coast lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some scattered showers will be approaching the region near sunrise Friday, but should hold off until later Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 415 PM Thursday...High pressure will shift off the coast through the long term period with typical summer pattern developing. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible beginning Friday through early next week. Friday/Friday Night...A weak short wave will move into the area from the southwest during the day. Latest guidance continues to indicate showers with some embedded thunder possible for mainly the southern and western areas of the area. Will maintain the low chance pops until additional guidance provides more consistency on location, timing, and strength of the shortwave, as precip chances may have to be raised for some areas with subsequent forecasts. Shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the coast and coastal waters Friday Night and maintained chance PoPs along the coast for this. Low level thicknesses will build to 1410-1415 meters, yielding max temps in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s for coastal areas. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through this period. Forecast PoPs based on climo (20-40 percent), with interior areas seeing best chances for scattered storms each afternoon and early evening, then best chances along the coast and offshore during the overnight periods. A weak front may aid shower and thunderstorm development Sunday night into Monday, though this feature currently appears too weak and subtle to indicate higher than chance PoPs at this time. High temps will range from the low 90s inland to mid 80s near the coast, with lows 72 to 78, coolest well inland and warmest on the beaches. Tuesday through Thursday...A bit more uncertainty this period, as ECMWF is indicating building heights/thicknesses which would limit convection, while GFS/CMC are indicating a weakness in the building ridge which may keep scattered showers/storms in the forecast. Will maintain 20 PoPs for the area at the moment, which is in line with ECMWF Ensemble MOS probabilities. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Friday morning/... As of 700 AM Thurs...VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period with exception of a period of MVFR fog likely to develop early Friday morning. Although fog was very scattered this morning, low level moisture will increase today, and combined with another clear and calm night, will lead to more widespread MVFR conditions. Otherwise, light E to SE winds are expected today under mostly sunny skies. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 410 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible each day as some scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may develop, and could see some periods of MVFR- IFR fog/low stratus during the pre-dawn hours each morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /Thursday and Thursday Night/... As of 345 AM Thurs...High pressure will have a strong influence over the NC coastal waters through Thursday night. Winds will be out of the E less than 10 kts this morning, and will then become SE this afternoon and tonight increasing to 10-15 kts. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft across the coastal waters. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 405 AM Thursday...Fair boating conditions expected through the long term as Bermuda high pressure will prevail offshore. This will produce SW winds of 5-15 kt through the weekend into early next week with seas mainly 2-3 ft, though some occasional 4 ft seas will be possible for the outer portions of the central and southern waters. Latest SWAN and Wavewatch guidance in good agreement through the medium range with the GFS-based Wavewatch appearing reasonable for the extended period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGK NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/SGK MARINE...DAG/SGK

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