Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180823 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS 10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JBM/CQD MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD

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