Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 061431 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1031 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WORDING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS REST OF MORNING. NO CHANGE TO AFTN FCST WITH HIGHER POPS SHIFTING INLAND. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ARE CONTINUING ALONG COAST THIS MORNING WITH DUE TO WEAK SHRT WV MOVING THROUGH IN DEEP S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF UPR LOW. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STMS SPREADING INLAND WITH HEATING AND SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. 12Z SOUNDING PW 1.86 A BIT HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS INDICATING MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ISOLATED PULSE DOWNBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS S CNTRL SECTIONS FOR SCT CONVECTION THRU MID MORN. ALSO INCRD CLD COVER FOR WRN AND CNTRL AREAS FOR MORN ST AND CONVECTION. THE FRONT ALG THE NC/VA BORDER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTH AND WILL CONT CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE WITH MORE SHRT WV ENERGY AFFECTING ERN NC TODAY AND WILL CONT 30-50 POPS AREAWIDE. MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID- UPR 80S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG HOWEVER WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A WARM MOIST SW FLOW CONTG ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 70S COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY WEEK WITH LIMITED CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THE AREA WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AND A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCE INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE COAST. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MUGGY MID 70S AT NIGHT. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND ONCE AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE ROUTINE VARIETY WITH 20-30 PCT PROBABILITIES. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT..LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INLAND REACHING THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S. AGAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...WELL INTO THE 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH THE PATTERN GOING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WEAK TROUGHING INLAND AND A DIURNAL THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS RPTD AT ISO AND PGV EARLY THIS MORN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU ABT 13Z. CONT SCT AOB 1K FT AT OAJ AND EWN. MVFR TO IFR FOG THRU 13Z SPLY ISO AND PGV. EXPECT CLOUDS TO START BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN TAFS. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. S-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 GUSTING TO 20 KT THIS AFTN. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...A FAIRLY STEADY STATE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER INLAND AREAS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...JAC/JBM SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...JAC/CTC MARINE...JAC/CTC/JBM

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