Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 040918 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 418 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from the north today and move offshore tonight. Low pressure will move quickly up the coast tonight and then offshore Monday, followed by high pressure late Monday. Complex low pressure will develop across the area Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday. A strong cold front will move through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM Sunday...Surface high pressure with a dry and cool air wedge will extend over area today while WAA and isentropic lift ahead of plains short wave produce thickening mid and high cloud cover with gradually increasing chance for rain mainly this afternoon. Mosaic radar indicates decent coverage of returns west of FAY-CAE line early this morning with activity dissipating as it moves east into very dry sub-cloud layer. Models appear to have decent handle on this with measurable rain expected over SW sections early this afternoon, gradually spreading NE by evening. Adjusted POPs to indicate likely for SW 1/3 of area after 4 PM with slight chance to chance for all but northern OBX by that time. Thickening cloud cover will limit heating with highs around 50 inland and 52-54 coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 340 AM Sunday...Models in good agreement with widespread rain all areas tonight and will have likely POPs this evening increasing to categorical overnight with QPF up to around 0.50 inch. Min temps mainly low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 316 AM Sun...Rain will move offshore during the morning Monday. A break expected in the rain Monday afternoon through evening before another round moves through late Monday night through Tuesday. Dry and warm mid week followed by a strong cold front and arctic air Friday into next weekend. Monday...Good model consensus with respect to first round of rain moving offshore Monday morning. High pressure will nose into E NC Monday afternoon through early evening with dry conditions. Thicknesses/hts do rise a bit behind the exiting system despite wind switch to the NW. Highs should reach the 55-60 degree range. Monday Night into Tuesday...Strong compact shortwave trough will eject out of the southern plains Monday night and move through the TN/OH valley Tuesday. 04/00Z model suite remains in good agreement with this system bringing another round of rain during this time frame. Strong omega develops late Mon night as strengthening S flow develops on 50 kt LLJ. The region will be in RRQ of upper jet and will induce large area of div q over the region. Deep southerly flow downstairs combined with large area of omega advancing towards E NC will spread in rain from west to east after midnight and have an increasing pop trend through the overnight as a result. First half of Tue will be a washout as deep moisture/lift is maximized over the area. Second area of cyclogenesis progged to develop along the NC coast and quickly exit on Tuesday with winds becoming NW behind the exiting system. It will be warm despite the rain with highs in the 60s east to mid/upr 50s coastal plain which should remain in northerly flow on cool side of the low. Tuesday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions return with subsidence and advancing high pres behind the departing system. It will continue to be mild as upr ridge amplifies across the eastern CONUS in response to deepening trough across the Intermountain West and Plains states. Temps above climo expected with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Friday through Sunday...Aforementioned trough across the western/central CONUS will translate eastward bringing coldest air mass of the season to much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. Strong cold front will push through E NC by Fri with strong CAA ensuing behind it. Blustery and cold conditions expected Friday through Sat with high temps in the 40s and lows 20-25 interior to low 30s OBX. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through 06Z Monday/... AS of 100 AM Sunday...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions rest of night and through the day Sunday, but lower CIGs and VSBYs likely developing this evening with widespread rain. Mid level CIGS will lower to VFR SCU this afternoon, then MVFR to IFR likely this evening as air mass becomes saturated. Long Term /Monday through Friday/... As of 316 AM Sun...Skies may lift to VFR on Monday though lower again Monday night into Tuesday with strong low pressure moving across the area and more widespread rain. The low will exit Tue afternoon and evening though low clouds and fog may persist on Tue night. High pres builds in for Wed into Thur bringing return to VFR conditions. Strong cold front will push through Thur night into Fri with gusty NW winds developing behind it. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 340 AM Sunday...Surface high center building in from NW will be over waters late today into evening, then move offshore overnight with developing low pressure moving up quickly from SW late tonight. Wind forecast for today fairly straight forward with current N winds 10-15 KT with higher gusts outer northern and central waters becoming N-NE and diminishing to around 10 KT this afternoon. More complex forecast for tonight as developing low and associated coastal front likely to bisect waters SW to NE overnight but exact position still uncertain. Does appear strongest winds to around 20 KT mainly for outer most portions of southern and central waters after 4 AM. Waves 3-5 feet this morning subsiding to 2-3 feet this evening, then building to 3-5 feet outer southern and central waters again overnight. Long Term /Monday through Friday/... As of 316 AM Sun...Weak coastal low pres trough moves offshore on Monday with winds becoming NW and gusty behind it. It now appears enough of a gradient develops to produce SCA winds/seas north of Hatteras. A stronger low pres area develops and moves up the coast on Tue, bringing strong gusty winds and probable SCA conditions. Tough to pin down the speed and direction of winds at this time as the low will be passing through the marine domain making timing of wind switch difficult this far out in time, but it appears gusty easterly winds ahead of the low will then switch to the NW and remain gusty as the low exits. The low will exit Tue night with winds diminishing on Wednesday. Winds back to the SW or W by Thur with approach of strong cold front that will move through the waters Thur night or Fri bringing another round of gusty 20-30 kt winds in its wake. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/TL NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/CTC/JBM/TL MARINE...JBM/TL

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