Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 250211 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1011 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 10 PM...LOWERED TEMPS ACRS THE OBX WITH MID 40S EXPECTED. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR WS/WD CHANGES TO INIT. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH WINDS DECOUPLING INLAND COMBINED WITH MOCLEAR SKIES. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST SO TEMPS LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR RISE TOWARD DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE SE STATES. SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT HELD OFF ON HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) TIL LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE DELAYED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY COLD COVER AND FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...COOLER NORTH/MILDER SOUTH. AREAS ON THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS MAY NOT REACH 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1224 PM FRI...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER GFSENS SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE STARTING AROUND MONDAY. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT US IN A WET PATTERN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT...SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO END MONDAY MORNING. PWS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 20Z TOMORROW WHEN LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH LWRG CIGS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY TO MVFR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED/ AS OF 132 PM FRI...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MAIN LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 10 PM...MADE SOME CHANGES TO WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LGT/VRBL WINDS ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. DIAMOND BUOY HAS CREPT UP TO 5.6 FT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THERE WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA FOR NOW AND KEEP 3-5 FT SEAS GOING FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING WEST TOWARD MORNING. WINDS REMAIN W/SW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY WHILE NORTHERN AREAS VEER AROUND TO THE N/NE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ON SAT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 139 PM FRI...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH WARM FRONT IN THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT SO DIRECTION UNSURE. HOWEVER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AS MAIN LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING GRADIENT CREATING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF STATES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW..BUT FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...IF STRONGER MORE INLAND TRACK OF LOW VERIFIES WILL SEE EASTERLY FLOW APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT BY END OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT KINSTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...CCG AVIATION...JAC/CCG/CQD MARINE...JAC/CCG/BTC HYDROLOGY...BTC

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