Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 312300 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie, will drift very slowly northeast across eastern North Carolina through Thursday, finally moving off the coast of the Outer Banks Thursday night. A cold front will move into the area Saturday while dissipating over the area. A second cold front will move through the area late Monday. High pressure will dominate thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... As of 7 PM Tue...As expected, diurnal convection has diminished inland with loss of heating, and will continue to advertise only sct/iso showers inland with likelies continuing near the coast as showers continue to migrate onshore the rest of the night. Models generally indicate a repeat of last night with low clouds developing overnight, though think fog will not be an issue due to the widespread clouds. Low temps continue warm and muggy with upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...Models indicate Bonnie remnant low moving only very slowly north between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout with somewhat of a repeat of convective precipitation development. Will have likely POPs for southern half of area and chance north with locally heavy downpours again possible. Max temps near 80 beaches to lower 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie will continue to produce a scattered convective threat through Thursday. The low will move east of the area Friday but a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of an approaching weak front which stalls near the area as we move into the weekend keeping a threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend followed by a stronger front moving through Sunday night into Monday. Wednesday night through Thursday...The remnants of Bonnie will slowly track across/along the Eastern NC coast through mid-week before finally moving to the east Thursday night into Friday. A tropical airmass with precipitable water values around 1.8-2 inches, combined with diurnally enhanced instability, will continue to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region. A slow and potentially stationary storm motion will continue to bring a threat of heavy downpours producing a localized flooding threat across the region. Highs in the low to mid 80 inland with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Thursday night through Saturday...Shower chances diminish Thursday night into Friday as the remnant low moves east of the region but a continued moist and unstable airmass with an approaching weak front and gradually falling heights aloft will continue to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The front is progged to be west across the piedmont Friday but convection initiating across central NC could move into the coastal plain during the afternoon along with the possibility of sea breeze convection closer to the coast. Thursday night into early Friday should be mostly dry for inland sections with a low chance pops for the coastal zones. Models differ some with just how far the front pushes into the region Friday night and Saturday but latest consensus stalls the front near the Albemarle Sound region. Better convective coverage expected Saturday as the front will be across, or at least very close to, to northern portions of the CWA. Increasing low level thicknesses and greater insolation will allow temps to warm into the mid to upper 80s for highs with lows around 70. Sunday through Tuesday...Deep layer moist SW flow increases across the region Sunday into Sunday night as a digging upper trough and stronger cold front approaches from the west. Moderate instability and increasing shear will continue to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Models have come into better agreement with regards to timing of the front, suggesting the front will move through Eastern NC late Sunday night into early Monday, with a drying trend by midday Monday. Tuesday will be dry with light westerly flow and thicknesses supporting max temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s coast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 18z Wednesday/... As of 7 PM Tuesday...VFR expected to persist this evening with convective activity diminishing with loss of daytime heating. Moist low levels and light NE winds will result in redevelopment of IFR stratus overnight with on and off showers moving onshore near the coast. Conditions improving to VFR by late morning with another bout of showers and embedded thunder redeveloping by afternoon with daytime heating. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 335 PM Tuesday...Remnant tropical low will drift along and near the NC coast through Thursday bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower activity expected to be diurnally enhanced with greatest coverage during the afternoon hours. While the remnants of Bonnie move out by Friday, a moist unstable airmass continues across the region Friday into Saturday ahead of a weak frontal system and expect showers and thunderstorms chances to persist through the long term. Periods of MVFR/IFR possible with heavier showers and storms through period. With low levels very moist could also have some light fog/lower stratus develop during the late night/early morning hours as winds are expected to be very light. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...Bonnie remant low off Cape Fear will move only very slowly NE tonight and Wednesday with no stregthening expected. Thus previous forecast on track with current NE to E winds around 10 KT gradually becoming E to SE with some speeds to 15 KT over southern and central waters Wednesday. Seas mainly 3-4 feet with some 5 FT heights for outer portions of southern and central waters. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie will slowly move across/along the Eastern NC coast into Thursday, then will lift northeast of the area Thursday night and Friday ahead of an approaching front. Winds will veer to S to SW Thursday and finally to NW to N Thursday night with the low departing the region. Light and variable winds expected Friday, becoming SW around 5-15 kt Friday night and Saturday ahead of a weak front. There is some uncertainty in the models with just how far the front pushes into the region and latest consensus pushes just into the Albemarle Sound region. Mainly followed NWPS with seas generally 3-5 ft Wednesday which subsides to 2-4 ft by late Thursday through the end of the period. Wavewatch does produce a few periods of seas up to 6 ft closer to the Gulf Stream Wednesday into Thursday but sided with NWPS. Wavewatch appeared reasonable Saturday but slightly overdone Sunday in warm-advection/southerly flow 10-20 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 400 PM Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area through Thursday as the remnants of TD Bonnie drift slowly across the region. The showers and storms will have locally heavy downpours and are expected to produce rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. This heavy rain will likely lead to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and ponding on roads. Best chances for heavy rain are during the afternoon hours. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/TL SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...SK/DAG AVIATION...JBM/DAG/TL MARINE...JBM/DAG HYDROLOGY...MHX

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