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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...THE INLAND CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DIED OUT
BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE OVER EASTERN CARTERET COUNTY INTO THE PAMLICO SOUND. THINK
THE OFF WATER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE A
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS TO INDICATE HIGHER POPS OVER
THE CRYSTAL COAST AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH LESSER POPS EITHER SIDE.
EASTERN NC REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5" OVERNIGHT
WHICH INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTING MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY AND COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RATHER WET DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE WITH
QPF TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN A VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN IN A DECREASING MODE
LATE TODAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AT ISO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 09Z THEN INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE SATURATED
LOW LEVELS. WINDS MAY PARTIALLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
THREAT IS GREATER FOR LOW CEILINGS THEN LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
BEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE AT PGV WHICH RECEIVED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS BUT STILL
TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING SO THINK BEST BET IS TO INDICATE
VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NUMEROUS
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME