Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260151 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 951 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DECOUPLED INLAND THIS EVENING BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING. THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/ AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/... AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/ AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/JME SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/JME MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME

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