Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 222300 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 700 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 PM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS EARLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STILL EXPECT A FOG POSSIBILITY THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE CLOUD TRENDS. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS WITH LATER UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 325 PM TUES...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS COLLOCATED WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM DUPLIN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO MARTIN COUNTY THEN EAST ALONG HWY 64 TO THE NORTHERN OBX. WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH 10-15 MPH WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN E/NE 5-10 MPH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THESE FEATURES PLACE OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATING 2-2.25 INCHES OVER EASTERN NC WITH A SURGE ABOVE 2.50 INCHES JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAT AND CRYSTAL COAST WATERS...MOVING NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THOUGH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES MOIST SW FLOW WILL SHIFT ALONG THE COAST SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 335 PM TUES...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED WED WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PWATS FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RANGE 1415-1425 METERS WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL HOLD NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND GIVEN MIXED CLOUDS ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUE...WEAK UPR RIDGE BREAK DOWNS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WV TROF AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ON THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH PSBL CONVECTION MOVING IN OFF WATER. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR THU AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS NW ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WV...APPROACHING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC POPS ALL AREAS THU NIGHT AS FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND STALLS NEAR SRN TIER LATE. ON FRI THE FRONT WILL GRAD WASHOUT OVER SRN TIER. LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHC NW TIER WHERE A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...CONT HIGHER CHCS NEAR CST WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. FRI NIGHT THUR SAT NIGHT LOOKS DRIER AS UPR TRF DRIFTS E WITH LIMITED FORCING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PCT RANGE...HIGHEST CST WHERE MOISTURE CONT TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC TRF WILL DEVELOP TO THE W SUN WITH TYPICAL THREAT OF WDLY SCT TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST CVRG INLAND. ANOTHER UPR TRF AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MON WITH FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA TUE. HAVE CHC POP FOR NOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THESE MAY GET BUMPED UP IN LATER FCST AS BECOME MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FRONT. THU LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF FRONT WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95 INLAND. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S FRI AND SAT AS FRONT STALL AND DISSIPATES TO THE S. SW FLOW SUN AND MON WILL AGAIN LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND. TEMPS MAY COOL AGAIN TUE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT IF WINDS SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLE. SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS DAYTIME HEATING AND AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR NOW...REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DURATION AND AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07-12Z. ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WED NIGHT WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW LIMITING FOG THREAT HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS AT TIMES. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THU AND THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY SAGS SE THUR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION THU AND THU EVENING AND THEN MAY SEE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT. MAINLY VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND ST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ AS OF 345 PM TUES...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/E WINDS 5-10 KT FROM NAGS HEAD NORTH AND WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS/GULF STREAM. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 2-4 FT TONIGHT INTO WED THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 5 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER WATERS WITH A TIGHTENING SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS WED NIGHT THRU THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LEANED TWRD LOCAL SWAN AND KEPT SEAS CAPPED AT 5 FT THRU THU. FRONT WILL SAG SE THRU MOST OF THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH DIMINISHING SW WINDS THU EVENING THAT WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E NRN TIER FRI. ACROSS SRN TIER FRONT WL LIKELY STALL IN VCNTY WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI. AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT EXPECT SW FLOW TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SHARPENING TROF INLAND AND OFFSHORE HIGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG/TL SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...RF/DAG/TL MARINE...RF/DAG

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