Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 290133 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 933 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND. PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED SCA S OF OCRACOKE...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT CST AND SHLD STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MOST WTRS OVERNIGHT. PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH ------------------------------------------ NEW BERN........28 IN 1966 CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966 GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966 KINSTON.........25 IN 1947 MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF/JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/JME/SK CLIMATE...CQD

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