Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 292102 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 502 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Depression Eight will approach the North Carolina coast from the southeast tonight and Tuesday and is forecast to strengthen to a Tropical Storm on Tuesday. The system will lift northeast of the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to push through the area Friday with high pressure building in from the north this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 500 PM Monday...Scattered cover of showers/tstms will continue early this evening, then activity expected to weaken with loss of heating thus will have lower POPs inland after 8 PM. Latest models continue to indicate offshore activty impacting coastal sections late evening and overnight and will keep increasing POP trend there. Convective debris clouds inland will dissipate this evening, then widespread low clouds expected again overnight. Min temps mainly low to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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As of 500 PM Monday...TD 8 still forecast to strengthen to Tropical Storm on Tuesday and per latest coordination will upgrade to TS Warning for Carteret, Outer Banks Hyde and Outer Banks Dare. Increased POPS to likley for coastal sections in afternoon with scattered/chance for inland. Rainfall amounts generally from a half to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. TS winds likely to impact OB from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet during afternoon. Highs from near 90 inland to mid 80s coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday, Tropical Depression 8 will move near the NC coast before turning abruptly NNE/NE Tuesday afternoon and evening and gradually moving away from the coast on Wednesday in response to frontal boundary diving south into eastern NC. Low confidence in forecast late in the extended period as medium range models show various solutions with tropical systems. Tuesday through Wednesday...Track guidance continues to move Tropical Depression 8 toward the NC coast with strengthening to a minimal tropical storm before making a turn to the NNE/NE Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front sinks south into eastern NC. The worst conditions associated with the system would appear to occur Tuesday afternoon with some gusty winds along the central Outer Banks and offshore, along with periods of heavy rainfall and perhaps some minor beach erosion. Probably a sharp moisture gradient across the region Tuesday with some sunshine allowing high temperatures to approach 90 inland, but with clouds/showers holding temperatures in the mid 80s beaches. Wrap-around moisture associated with exiting system lingers along the coast Wednesday. Since the precipitation will be showery in nature, have continued previous trend of 40-50 percent PoPs in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday night through Friday...GFS/Canadian show a parade of 3 systems to affect our region between Tuesday and Friday, while the ECMWF spins up current Gulf system (Tropical Depression 9) into a major storm and moves it off our coast Friday. Tons of uncertainty and little confidence in the varied solutions, so have opted to keep a low rain chance in the forecast through this period, mainly near the coast. Saturday through Sunday...Cold front with strong high pressure to the north should finally push the deeper moisture offshore by the weekend. ECMWF/GFS show major storm offshore and moving away Saturday, but much uncertainty in this solution. It does appear that a shot of drier and cooler air will be in store for the weekend with highs dropping back into the low/mid 80s and nighttime lows into the mid 60s over much of the CWA. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through Tuesday Afternoon/... As of 100 PM Mon...VFR conditions have returned for most areas this afternoon with the exception of OAJ. Cloud bases are at MVFR levels but have become scattered enough to not produce ceilings. Scattered convection will be possible this afternoon and evening as Tropical Depression 8 nears the coast. IFR conditions are again likely early Tuesday morning as tropical moisture continues to flow into the region. Ceilings could form around 800 ft, with some MVFR fog also possible between 4-8 AM. Ceilings should raise to MVFR levels after sunrise but may linger under 3 K feet until mid morning. VFR conditions should return region-wide around noon. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 315 AM Monday, periods of MVFR ceilings will be likely in rain bands associated with Tropical Depression 8 Tuesday night and Wednesday before the system accelerates away from the area Wednesday evening. While quite a bit of uncertainty exists with the model solutions regarding the evolution and track of tropical systems, should see primarily VFR conditions Thursday into Friday as some drier air moves into the region behind a cold front. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 455 PM Monday...NE winds 10-20 KT will continue over waters through tonight, then increase over central waters Tuesday with approach of TD 8 which is still forecast to strengthen to TS by afternoon. TS warning will continue over waters from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet and added TS Warning for Pamlico Sound. Seas currently 4-6 feet expected to build to 6-8 feet by morning and to 8-12 feet on Tuesday. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 320 AM Monday, Tropical Depression 8 will approach the coastal waters Tuesday morning before turning more NNE/NE Tuesday afternoon and evening, then moving away from the coast Wednesday. Some wind gusts to 50 knots are possible in the central waters Tuesday afternoon and evening, before subsiding fairly quickly on Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front will move offshore early Friday bringing moderately N/NE winds. Seas will peak at 11-14 feet late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night before subsiding dramatically on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, seas should drop to 3-5 feet before increasing again behind the cold front on Friday. Given long period swell energy and strong winds, the rip current risk will remain high through at least midweek.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ095-103-104. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ135-152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/SGK MARINE...JBM/SK

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