Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 310450 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1251 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EASTERN NC FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RAINY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 AM THU...SOME THIN DEBRIS CLOUDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES STREAMING IN FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER TEXAS. EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IF TEMPERATURES DROPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM WED...MAINLY DRY ON THU. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE E-SE ALLOWING FOR AN ISO SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ON INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 80S AND NEAR 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM WED...THUR NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRI. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POP FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE THUR NIGHT...WHILE NAM/GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED. ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUICKLY FRI AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER...WITH INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AREA STILL IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST AREAS AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST MATERIALIZES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/... AS OF 1241 AM THU...MAINLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH FRONT WELL OFFSHORE GIVING EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR WEST OF THE AREA APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH. SOME BLOWOFF CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL STREAM OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THENIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO THE SUNLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS...WHICH WILL DISSPATE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNSET LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM WED... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING E NC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/... AS OF 1247 AM THU...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNIND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THIS EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE WIND REACH AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IF GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM WED...THE FRONT OFFSHORE RETREATS WESTWARD AS A COASTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER FRI. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...CGG/SK MARINE...CGG/SK

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