Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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403 FXUS62 KMHX 241204 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 704 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area through tonight with low pressure moving across to the south and southeast. A dry cold front will move through from the northwest Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and Monday and will extend over through Wednesday. Another cold front will approach the area Friday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Friday...An upper trough persists across the Southeast today with sfc high pressure centered over VA extending into the deep south. Shortwave energy and the initial low pressure area will push east today with dry conditions and mainly sunny skies inland to partly cloudy along the coast where high clouds may bring more filtered sunshine at times. Increased insolation and rising low level thicknesses will bring temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday and expect highs in the mid 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Friday...Another embedded shortwave will move trough the east coast trough tonight with a secondary low pressure area lifting NE across the offshore waters. This low will be little farther south and expect dry condition across eastern NC with mainly clear skies inland to partly cloudy skies along the coast. Light winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows in the low to mid 30s inland to 40s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday...A cold front will cross the area Saturday night, then high pressure will dominate the region through mid week. Another cold front will approach the area Friday. Saturday...A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and push through Saturday night. Majority of all the models continue to show no precip associated with this frontal passage. Expect highs in the low/mid 60s across the area and lows in the low/mid 40s inland to low 50s OBX. Expect the best CAA to hold off until Sunday night. Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and Monday, then slide off the coast of Wednesday with no precip in the forecast. Temperatures will be on the cool side on Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 50s with overnight lows in low/mid 30s inland and mostly 40s beaches. As the high pushes of shore, temperature will trend warmer on Tuesday with highs in the 60s, with Wednesday being the warmest. Thursday and Friday...High pressure will continue to extend over eastern NC from the Western Atlantic with a cold front approaching the area. As a result, an increase of moisture across the area, and continued the mention of slight chance of showers mainly east of HWY 17. The cold front is expected to push through the area Friday. Expect highs in the low/mid 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure a very dry airmass in place bringing mainly sunny skies and light winds at the terminals. With cold temps, clear skies and calm winds patchy steam fog is expected again tonight which will impact PGV and possibly EWN. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 215 AM Friday... VFR conditions will dominate the period. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing an increase of clouds, but no precip at TAF sites. Then, high pressure will build in and dominate the are through midweek. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Friday...High pressure remains centered across VA into the Southeast through the short term with a couple areas of low pressure passing along a stalled frontal boundary well south of the area, one this morning and the second tonight. Seeing a slight increase in pressure gradients and expect NE winds around 10-15 kt north of Cape Hatteras and 15-20 kt south through this evening with seas 3-5 ft north and 4-6 ft south. Expect winds to diminish to 5-15 kt after midnight tonight while gradually backing to NW with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft for all waters. Continue SCA for the waters south of Oregon Inlet today and south of Ocracoke through this evening for seas to 6 ft and possibly wind gusts to around 25 kt off Cape Lookout. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 215 AM Friday...A cold front will approach the area Saturday from the west and push through Saturday night. Winds will be from the West 10-15 knots Saturday with seas 2 to 4 feet. The cold front will cross Sat night with NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kts Sun and seas building to 4 to 6 feet...highest outer central nrn waters. As the high builds closer Sun night and Mon, N winds will diminish to mainly to around 10 kts or less with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...SK/BM MARINE...SK/BM

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