Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 020838 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 437 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES 08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...JBM/SK

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