Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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906 FXUS62 KMHX 300014 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 814 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING KEDE-KHSE THIS EVENING. REST OF FCST ON TRACK. LOWER CLOUDINESS STILL LINGERING NE 1/3 OF AREA AND LIKELY TO HANG IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND CONTINUED NE WINDS AND WDSPRD UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 230 PM FRI...STRATUS IS FINALLY LIFTING AND ERODING AND EXPECT MOST SITES WILL SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTN. WITH HIGH PRES NOSING IN FROM THE N EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 50S N TO MID/UPR 50S S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRI...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION SAT WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TRF. PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH EARLY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL OVER THE REGION SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA INLAND DURING THE AFTN WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN SAT WITH LOW CLOUDS EARLY AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SHLD SEE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS LOW/MID 70S SW TO LOW/MID 60S NE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL START ERODING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A PROLONGED TROUGH PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL MEAN ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH SFC FEATURES. WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN BELOW WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DROP A BIT AFTER TUESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH AN ERODING CAD TO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FEEL ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NC WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS EVEN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY, SO TOO WILL THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. GIVEN MID LEVEL LIFT/IMPULSES CROSSING IN THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AT THE SFC, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SVR. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE OBX. A BRIEF REPRIEVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING THICKNESSES, ALBEIT WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVERAGE, FEEL TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT THIS JUNCTURE AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA, ONLY TO BECOME STALLED AND EITHER BISECTS OR MOVE JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NC TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL CONTINUITY, HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO AND BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. WE NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AND THE SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY DICTATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. SO ANY MEANDER OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT PRECIP/WX TYPE AND TEMPS. EXPECT WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE THIS BOUNDARY MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON, WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BETTER COVERAGE HARDER TO PIN POINT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF TIME OF HEAVIER RAIN AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS A BIT AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT, BUT THE FACT THAT MULTIPLE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE GIVES MORE CREDIBILITY. SO HAVE UPPED POPS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA, TEMPERATURE WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH MODEL SPREAD ON THESE VALUES QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, HAVE TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S GIVEN NORTHER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENT SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY DEEP TROUGH, ALBEIT CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW, WE MAY SEE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT THIS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TRIES TO EDGE INTO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER. BUT FEEL WITH SUBSIDENCE, MID 70S IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...LOWER CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES AND VFR MOSTLY SKC EXPECTED REST OF EVENING. LATEST GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE IFR STRATUS REDEVELOPING ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBY FOG FOR WRN SECTIONS AND WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE SAT MORNING...THEN PERSIST AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FT DURING AFTN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. JUST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR WRN SECTIONS DURING AFTN. LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INSTIGATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE FOR SFC LOWS TO RIDE. A MORE POTENT LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THAT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE JUST NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH A PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT GIVEN SUCH AN ACTIVE PERIOD, ANTICIPATING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OFF AND ON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND S INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONT MAINLY N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET WITH POSS SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS SAT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS 10-15KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD 3 TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THE SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOT CROSSED THE AREA. THE GFS/WWATCH IS INDICATING A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TO CROSS WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD MEAN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. HOWEVER, HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO KEEPING LIGHTER NORTH WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...LEP AVIATION...RF/JBM/LEP MARINE...RF/JBM/LEP

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