Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 191901 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 301 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will move north away from the region through tonight. High pressure builds in Wednesday and persists through early next week. At this time Hurricane Maria is expected to track well offshore of the southeast coast next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday...TC Jose will continue to lift N away from ern NC tonight as high pres builds in from the W. Clouds and spotty shra over NE sections will grad shift offshore with skies becoming mclr all areas. Gusty NNW winds over NE tier will also diminish thru the night with winds becoming light to calm inland. Good radiational cooling will lead to lows in lower 60s cooler inland spots with beaches in upr 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday...Dry weather expected in wake of Jose however may see some increase in clouds in aftn as weak short wave approaches. With good deal of sun thru at least mid day will have highs in mid to upr 80s inland with low to mid 80s cst.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure will build in from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria currently located near the Virgin Islands. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, though models have been trending more eastward with the system keeping it well offshore of the southeast coast. Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. Pred dry wx expected through the period, though could have some isolated showers and storms Thu afternoon. Could see some showers along the coast early next week, depending on the Maria track. Low level thickness values support temps near to slightly above normal, generally highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Thu and Fri likely to be the warmest days.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /Through Wed/... As of 1235 PM Tuesday...Clouds grad lifting and sct out over TAF sites as Jose conts to lift NE away from the area. Expect prev VFR rest of the period as Jose conts to lift N and high pres builds in with mclr skies. As winds become light tonight may see some patchy fog inland with temps reaching dewpts and added some MVFR vsbys late. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 3 PM Tue...VFR conditions will dominate most of the period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across the region.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Wed/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Winds will cont to diminish as Jose moves further away. SCA will end srn wtrs and sounds late today or this evening. Very large seas cont nrn wtrs and will be slow to subside and SCA will cont these wtrs. Seas of 12 to 16 feet nrn tier late today will drop to 7 to 10 feet late tonight and 5 to 8 feet Wed. Over srn tier seas of 4 to 7 feet late today will drop to 3 to 5 feet tonight and 2 to 4 feet Wed. Long Term /Wed night through Sunday/... As of 3 PM Tue...Hurricane Jose will continue to lift northwards off the NE coast Wed night and Thu, then is forecast to slowly weaken and retrograde late week into the weekend. High pressure will build in from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria currently located near the Virgin Islands. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, but models have been trending keeping it well offshore of the SE coast. Mariners and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. SW winds 5-15 kt Wed night, becoming N/NE by Thu afternoon. NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 10-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across the central waters through the entire period. Seas 2-4 ft expected south of Ocracoke through Thu night. Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from distant Hurricane Maria Thu night through the weekend across all the waters. Small craft seas likely to re-develop Fri and continue into the weekend, possibly seeing double digit seas by late weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday...Cont Coastal Flood Warning for OBX Dare thru this evening as some signif overwash expected again during evening high tide...with impacts to Highway 12 likely. Very rough surf will also persist N of Hat with breakers aoa 8 feet much of tonight. Minor flooding adjacent to srn/ern Pamlico Sound shld grad subside as winds cont to diminish this evening.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ095- 104. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ103. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ130-131-135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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