Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 192332 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 632 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight then extend over the area from the north into Tuesday. The high will then slide offshore Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will move in from the west Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS of 630 PM Sunday... A very comfortable evening to end the picture perfect weekend. Temps are in the 60s as of 6 pm. With the lowest dewpoint in the afternoon being in the middle to upper 40s, under a clear sky and light wind environment that is where we will find our lows tonight. The exception will be right along the coast where we will remain in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...ridging surface and aloft will prevail during the day with continued high and dry conditions. Increasing N-NE winds will keep max temps in the 50s for Outer Banks while inland areas expected to see lower 70s again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 pm Sun...Latest model runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement and blended the two. Narrow surface ridge along the eastern seaboard Monday night will slowly move east Tuesday. Upper ridge flattens out and becomes zonal for much of the week. During the midweek a frontal system will pass to the north, while the band of moisture out ahead of it will pass through Wednesday. However, dynamics are poor so have kept the forecast dry except for isolated showers off the coast. Upper flow will back to southwest late in the week as a strong upper shortwave lifts northeast through the central and northern plains with the associated surface cold front moving rapidly east. Have kept chance PoPs in for Friday night and Saturday, with enough instability to include mention of thunder. High pressure and a dry airmass pass through the region on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /Through Monday Afternoon/... As of 630 PM Sunday...VFR through the end of the TAF period. Light NW winds tonight at 5 kts or less shift to the northeast Monday morning and remain light. Fog formation is not expected tonight as winds just off the surface increase out of the northeast. This should provide enough mixing of the lower atmosphere to prevent fog. Long Term /Mon night thru Fri/ As of 230 pm Sun...VFR and dry weather through Thursday. Isolated showers possible at PGV and ISO on Friday. Surface winds will be from the east around 5 knots Tuesday, west around 5 knots Wednesday, and southwest 10-15 knots Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 630 PM Sunday... No changes to the previous forecast. The previous AFD is below. High pressure building in from west this evening will merge with another high to the north late tonight and combo will extend over waters from the north Monday. Winds will continue to veer from W-NW this evening to N overnight with tightening pressure gradient producing 15-20 KT speeds by morning. Winds will gradually become N-NE Monday with continued 15-20 KT speeds. Some gusts to 25 KT likely outer central waters during the day but not of enough significant duration to support SCA at this time. Increasing speeds and shift to N will result in seas building to 2-4 feet overnight and 3-5 feet Monday. Long Term /Mon night thru Fri/ As of 230 pm Sun...Breezy northeast flow will diminish Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure along the eastern seaboard moves east and pressure gradient loosens. Light northeast flow will veer to southeast then southwest Tuesday night and continue through Friday. Speeds will range generally 5-15 knots, but will increase beginning Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Wave heights will be 2-4 feet through Thursday, then build to 3-5 feet Friday, with 4-6 feet in the waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...EH SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...EH/HSA/SGK MARINE...JBM/EH/HSA

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