Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 232257 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 657 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore will prevail through much of next week. A weak cool front will approach from the north late Tuesday, then remain stalled over the mid-Atlantic region through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 7 PM Sat...Have removed mention of evening convection in the SW. No other changes made. A quiet evening tonight with typical warm and muggy late July temps. A short wave and potential convective MCS will bypass E NC well to the north late tonight, though included a slght chc storm for the nrn OBX in case tail end clips NE NC. Some light patchy BR possible late tonight/early Sun a.m. for the coastal plain counties. Lows will be near 80 on the beaches and mid 70s interior. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...Hot and humid again for Sunday. With MOS guide underforecasting TD`s on Saturday, think that Sunday should reach heat adv criteria for bulk of the FA, as low level thicknesses are a bit higher than Saturday`s values. Have heat adv for all but OBX Hyde from 11a to 8p. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 90s interior to around 90 coast. Heat indices will peak around 105-107 mid afternoon. Kept out pops on Sunday as building ridge and capping prevent diurnal convection from developing. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Dropped 20% POPs for inland Monday afternoon/evening, otherwise no significant changes with this forecast cycle. Typical late July pattern will persist through the week, albeit with temps generally 5-8 degrees above normal resulting in heat indices near advisory criteria each day. East- west oriented upper ridge will dominate through late week, then models continue to indicate some troughing moving in Friday- Saturady, leading to increased chances of convective activity. Sunday night through Tuesday...A strong upper level ridge will build east from the southern Plains across the SE/Mid Atlantic regions producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees possibly warranting Heat Advisories. Strong subsidence and minimal short wave activity will preclude any convective activity through Monday night. Some short wave energy moving across just to the north Tuesday along with increase in deep layer moisture with PW values building to around 2 inches, thus kept slight chance POPs for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Will continue to highlight the dangerous heat potential in HWO. Wednesday through Saturday...Per above, models continue to indicate upper ridge axis shifting slightly south with some troughing into Ohio valley and NE U.S. This will allow the base of the westerlies and the track of mid level shortwaves to brush NC by late week, which will lead to better chances for showers and thunderstorms especially late next week. Expect continued high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s with max heat index values in the low 100s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short term /Through Sunday Afternoon/... As of 7 PM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected for most of the short term. Exception being area of MVFR fog that may develop west of Highway 17 around sunrise. Winds across most inland regions will decouple overnight, which will lead to the possibility of fog formation. Moderate confidence for MVFR conditions inland and low confidence closer to the coast, i.e. EWN. So went with MVFR group from 6-8 AM for all but EWN. Fog will burn off quickly Sunday morning with clear skies and light and variable winds expected. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday as strong mid level ridging persists across the region with only minimal convective activity expected mainly during the afternoon/evenings. Conditions will become more unstable Wednesday and Thursday which is expected to lead to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms and the potential for sub VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Sunday/... As of 7 PM Sat...Fairly benign boating condions continue on the waters with offshore Bermuda high and interior thermal trough producing SW winds generally 10-15 Kt with some higher gusts. Seas currently 2 to 3 feet will stay in this range through Sunday. The SW winds 10-15 kt will continue through Sunday, with ocnl gusts around 20 kt especially late in the afternoon hours when thermal heating peaks. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Saturday...models continue to indicate typical Bermuda high/inland trough pattern through the period, resulting in persistent SW flow around 15 KT across the waters. Winds are expected to become slightly stronger, to around 20 KT, during the late afternoon and evening hours each day, when the pressure gradient between the Piedmont thermal trough and the Bermuda high offshore is strongest. Seas will continue 2-4 ft through the period occasionally reaching 5 FT over the outer waters during periods of stronger flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...HSA/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...HSA/JBM MARINE...HSA/JBM

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