Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200725 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 325 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 245 AM SUN...MOISTURE WILL CONT TO SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE TO THE S. TRENDS IN MAJORITY OF MDLS SUGGEST DECENT CVRG ALL AREA THRU EARLY/MID MORN THEN BEST CVRG SHIFTING TO CST LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS CST ALL DAY AND SHOW INLAND AREAS GRAD DROPPING TO TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC THIS AFTN. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONT KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. TIGHT GRDNT N OF THE LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER THE AREA ESPCLY CST. WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVRY OBX/DOWNEAST CARTERET TODAY BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP JUST BELOW AND CONT TO MONITOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 AM SUN...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONT TO SLOWLY SLIDE FURTHER E WITH DRYING DEEP INLAND. FOR THE CST WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY DIMINISHING TO CHC LATE. SHLD REMAIN CLOUDY CST...FOR INLAND AREAS WOULD THINK STRATUS WOULD FORM IF DID GET BREAKS IN CLOUDS SO WILL STILL SHOW MCDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH WITH UPR 40S DEEP INLAND TO MID 50S BEACHES. NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE CST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 310 AM SUN...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE OFF THE SE COAST MONDAY. LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE ABOUT THE STACKED LOW. MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN EARNEST PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEEP INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST MON. MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHARP MID LEVEL TROF. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN GFS/NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINING LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MID 60S/LOW 70S WED WILL RISE TO LOW 70S/80 BY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY A WEAK FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY. WILL CAP POPS AT LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM SUN...TOUGH FCST WITH SITES BOUNCING FROM IFR TO VFR. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE IN SHORT TERM WITH EWN BEST CHC TO STAY IFR AND PGV BEST CHC TO STAY VFR THRU MID MORN. LATER THIS MORN THINK MOST SITES CURRENTLY IFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR. WILL CONT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MID MORN WITH PRECIP ENDING INLAND LATER TODAY. TONIGHT WILL CONT TO SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN LOW LVLS BELOW INVERSION AND EXPECT CIGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE TO COME BACK MOST AREAS. NNE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THRU THE PERIOD PEAKING THIS AFTN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 AM SUN...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD HANG ON LONGER FOR EWN/OAJ...MAYBE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM SUN...STRONGEST WINDS CONT OVER SRN TIER THIS MORN. ALL MDLS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TODAY WITH 20 TO 30 KTS ALL WTRS AND POTENTIAL FOR GALES CNTRL/SRN TIER INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONT ALL HEADLINES WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT OUTER WTRS LATER TODAY AND CONT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW DRIFT FURTHER E AND HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN GIVEN PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY HOLDING AOA 10 FT MOST OUTER WTRS THRU THE NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 AM SUN...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW OFF THE SE COAST. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5-11FT EARLY MON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6FT BY TUE MORNING. NW WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EARLY TUE WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW FLOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WED AND THU.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 245 AM SUN...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NRN WTRS TODAY SEAS IN SURF ZONE SHLD GRAD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT...SO CONT HIGH SURF ADVRY N OF HAT. WATERS LVLS WILL CONT TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SRN PAMLICO SOUND WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW SO CONT COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ093>095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...BTC/CQD AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF

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