Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 300959 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 559 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY... NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRES AREA WELL TO THE S OFF THE SE COAST WITH TROF EXTENDING NE OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES AREA ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT HELPING TO GENERATE AND BRING ISOLD SHRA TO THE COAST FM HAT S TO NEAR LOOKOUT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR THESE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS 00Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF ALONG SRN COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY ST AND FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH 8 AM. EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE NW AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE AND SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID/UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SRN COASTAL AREAS WHERE ISOLD SHRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING ASSOCD WITH THE SFC LOW S OF LOOKOUT. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS UNTIL LTR TNGT SO PRECIP CHCS INLAND WILL BE NIL TODAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH LOW 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPR 80S COASTAL LOCATIONS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALBEIT SLIGHT. CONT WITH LOW POPS NW AND NRN AREAS STARTING DURG THEN INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL THE MAIN SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW AND COMES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOWS ARE TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS TO THE MID AND UPR 70S ON THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WED...A TROUGHY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THEN DRIER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE COAST AND STALLED BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH JUST 20 POPS...AND RETAINED 30-40 POPS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED PER 17 G/KG OR HIGHER MIX RATIOS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH THE 30/00Z GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THE CMC IS A FAIR COMPROMISE KEEPING JUST THE COASTAL AREAS IN A RAIN THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST LEANING MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECM...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARDS TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THESE AREAS REMAINING MAINLY DRY. 30-50 POPS CONFINED TO COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE COAST. THE ECM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL NOT CHANGE OR INCREASE POPS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...AND CONTINUE 30-50 POPS...HIGHEST FAR EASTERN AREAS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON WHETHER TROUGHY PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SE CONUS...WITH ECM HINTING AT ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT /... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...ANY FOG/ST ACRS INLAND AREAS SHUD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN VFR CONDS AFT 12Z WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE MORN AND AFTN ARND 5K FT. ISOLD CONVECTION PSBL AFT 00Z-06Z TONIGHT FOR PGV PSBLY ISO BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT SCT STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL BE PSBL AGAIN ACRS TAF SITES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 4 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT THUNDERSHOWERS AND POTENTIAL TEMPO SUB VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY KEWN AND KOAJ. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WINDS CURRENTLY LIGHT NW...W OF LOOKOUT AND SE-E EAST EAST OF LOOKOUT 5-15 KT WITH A WEAK SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF OF THE AREA. SEAS CONT 2-4 FT HIGHEST CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE NW AND THE MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF OF THE SE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME S-SE 5-15 KT DURING THE AFTN THRUT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT DURG THE LATE AFTN ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AS SLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. SCA CONTS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM HAT S THIS EVE CONTG FOR THE WATERS S OF LOOKOUT THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY MORNING AND 1 PM FRI AFTN ASSOCD WITH THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCD SWELL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACRS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-5 FT N OF HAT TONIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 4 AM THU...SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING WITH LARGER SWELL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND STALL THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP NEAR TERM...JAC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JAC/TL MARINE...JAC/TL

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