Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260645 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT SEABREEZE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY INLAND. LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1240 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...MAINLY FOR EWN/OAJ/ISO. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS 1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...CQD/RF MARINE...CQD/RF

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