Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260256 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1056 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system will slowly move northeast away from the region tonight. High pressure in the central Atlantic will build in Wednesday through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures and below normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from the west Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1045 PM Tuesday...The latest sfc analysis shows the center of the low over the DELMARVA region and will continue to lift NE through the night. Most of the showers and thunderstorms dissipate with the lost of heating. Have reduced overnight PoPs for most of the area, expect for the northeast sections as a few showers may cross the area. The weak low had allowed for partial clearing across the area this evening. This clearing along with a saturated ground can lead to fog formation in areas were the wind has become calm. Lows expected in the mid/upper 50s inland to low to mid 60s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...Low pressure will continue to lift away from the area Wednesday with high pressure building in from the west. Dry and warmer with highs in the low 80s inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast and NE sections. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... A true sneak preview of summer is just around the corner for the extended with highs approaching 90 this weekend. With a southwest flow of air Thursday temps will warm well into the 80s inland to near 80 along the coast. Friday into the weekend a large Bermuda high will develop off the coast, with upper level heights increasing to 588 DM or higher. The result will be a period of highs into the 80s everywhere, with near 90 degree readings inland. While a mostly sunny sky and low precip chances are expected for most, with the southwest flow and large temperature differential between the land and ocean, daily chances for pop up showers/storms are possible along the sea breeze. Certainly not expecting a wash out but keep this in mind if you live just inland from the coast, where the sea breeze tends to be more active. Our next shot for more organized precipitation will come later Monday and Tuesday with a cold front. The 12Z GFS has slowed the progress of this front, keeping showers into part of Tuesday. Confidence is medium we will see at least a round of showers with the front itself but confidence is low on whether the timing is Monday or early Tuesday. With the clouds and showers around temps won`t be quite as hot next week or back into the 80s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /Through Wednesday/... As of 730 PM Tue...Ceiling heights will lower as the vertically stacked low lifts NE and moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight...bringing MVFR to IFR cigs. Forecast is tricky as guidance does not have the best handle on timing...leading to moderate confidence. Despite a saturated ground, low level clouds and light winds are expected to limit fog development. Low clouds will erode away slowly in the morning leading to VFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon under a light west flow. Long Term /Wed night through Sat night/... As of 330 PM Tue...VFR expected through the period. Each day an isolated thunderstorm is possible along the sea breeze but proximity to any one terminal will be low confidence and the duration would be short. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 1045 PM Tue...Latest buoy obs are showing mainly SW 5-15 knot and seas around 7 ft. The center of low is over the DELMARVA region and is expected move farther away through the night. SW winds expected around 10-20 kt south of Oregon inlet and 5-10 kt north this evening, becoming west overnight. W winds diminish to 5-10 kt all waters by Wednesday afternoon and back to SW late. Seas around 6-10 ft this afternoon will continue to slowly subside tonight into Wed and are expected to drop below 6 ft all waters Wednesday evening. Long Term /Wed night through Sun/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Relatively good boating conditions into the weekend. Southwest winds will generally be 10 to 20 kts through the period, with waves 3 to 5 feet. Brief small craft advisory conditions possible Friday central outer water as seas build to 6 feet, otherwise generally below small craft conditions through Sunday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 10 PM Tue...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms across eastern NC will diminish tonight as low pressure lifts away from the region. The main hydrology focus has now shifted to river flooding as widespread 5-8 inches of rainfall fell across the upper portions of the basin. The Tar River in Greenville is currently forecast to crest above major flood stage, while Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is expected to crest above moderate flood stage. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin and Neuse River in Kinston expected to reach minor flooding Wednesday night.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK/BM SHORT TERM...SK/SGK LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...EH/SK/BM MARINE...EH/SK/BM HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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