Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 190120 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 920 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar. However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10") will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/. Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/... As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses, then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts. LONG TERM /Tuesday Evening through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW`rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 430 PM Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Tue - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JME/CQD/RJ MARINE...JME/CQD/RJ FIRE WEATHER...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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