Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 232224 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 624 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. WITH BETTER COVERAGE AND SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...HAVE RAISED POPS THERE AND CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MULTI LEVEL MOIST INFLOW. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEARER THE COAST WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE MAXIMIZED. COASTAL AREAS ALSO HAD SOME HEAVIER RAIN LAST WEEKEND SO DESPITE SANDY SOIL TYPES, EXPECT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN (THOUGH WEDNESDAY) WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING WHICH CUD BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE HEAVIER RAIN AS INLAND AREAS WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE STREAM. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 (AGAIN, THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WITH SOME EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS WELL INLAND. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 AS A BUFFER BUT EXPECT MORE COASTAL AREAS TO BE MORE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EAST OF THE INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROF WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED TOWARD MORNING. A COOL NIGHT EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS (LOWS AROUND 60) WHERE TUE AFTN HIGHS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH INTO MID 60S. AFTER EARLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70, TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE AS OFFSHORE TROF APPROACHES AND DRAWS IN WARMER AIR. IN FACT...HERE AT MHX...THIS IS THE FIRST DAY THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT REACHED 70 DEGREES SINCE APRIL 24. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND. WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S DESPITE PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...NOW REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISO IN AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL TAF SITES TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS STEADY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR TO LINGER THRU MUCH OF WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING TENDS TO ERODE THE LOWEST CLOUD LAYERS BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ AS OF 625 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUES CURRENTLY PEAKING AT 33 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 27 KNOTS AT CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 7 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TROF OFF THE COAST, MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW THRU TONIGHT WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL LINGER THRU WED AFTN. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081- 092>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156- 158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...JAC/TL AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BTC MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.