Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180729 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 329 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move into the area tonight and stall. This front will move south of the area early next week. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next week, with unsettled weather expected to continue.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 305 AM Friday...A trough of low pressure coupled with a very moist unstable environment today will lead to a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Model forecast surface-based CAPE values will be in the 3000-3500 J/kg range during peak heating this afternoon coupled with precipitable water values of 2.2-2.3 inches will trigger thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours. A small portion of our far NW CWA is in the marginal threat of severe from SPC for today, but think strong to marginally severe storms will be possible into the evening. With temperatures into the low/mid 90s inland and upper 80s coast coupled with dewpoints well into the 70s, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for all but Carteret County and the Outer Banks as Heat index values may reach 105 degrees for at least a few hours during the afternoon, prior to the onset of convection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Friday...Expect ongoing convection at the beginning of the period to wane with loss of heating during the late evening hours. Some patchy late night stratus or fog will be likely in areas that received rainfall. Yet another very warm and muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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This Weekend... The trend toward a faster front with a drier second half of the weekend continues. The best chance for storms this weekend will be Saturday and with PWATS still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much drier air moves into the northern 2/3 of the area, with PWATS here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the far south where a cold front should be moving through with slightly higher moisture values. Monday/Tuesday...No big changes to this period of the forecast as a cold front mentioned above washes out across our area. The biggest impact from the front will be the much drier air, with PWATS mainly under 1.5" and even 1.0" Tuesday! Continued very low chance pops over areas west of Route 17 both afternoons but if model guidance continues to suggest such a dry atmosphere these chances for storms may be too high. With upper level heights above 591 DM, highs inland will easily reach the lower 90s with mid 80s at the beaches. Wednesday/Thursday...The next front will move into NC Wednesday, and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. While not nearly as moist as the past few days, moisture will increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front. Even drier and cooler weather is possible late next week/weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term /through 06Z Saturday/... As of 1240 AM Friday...Anticipate some patches of stratus and fog at KPGV and KISO where precipitation occurred earlier today. This lines up well with previous forecast and no major changes made. A much more unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered to numerous showers and tstms after 18z at or near all of the TAF sites. Some storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy downpours into the evening hours before ending after 00Z with loss of heating. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Friday...Sub VFR conditions most likely Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and thunderstorms likely most terminals. Beyond Saturday night, mainly VFR weather expected through mid week.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 315 AM Friday...After a bit of gustiness to near 20 knots this morning, winds will generally be S/SW at 5-15 knots today with seas at 2-3 feet. Gradient will tighten ahead of a cold front tonight as SW winds increase to 10-20 knots and seas inch up to 3-4 feet. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Friday...Quiet boating conditions continue on the waters through early next week. Winds southwest 5 to 15 this weekend with seas 2 to 4 feet. Behind a cold front winds shift into the northeast over the northern waters Monday, with light southwest winds over the rest of the waters. Through mid week winds back toward the south and eventually southwest but remain 5 to 15 kts. We capped seas at 2 to 3 feet with wave watch guidance running a bit high with winds that light.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...CTC/EH MARINE...CTC/EH

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