Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 291325 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 925 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will stall across the area through tonight. The front will lift north and west of the area Thursday, then return and stall across Eastern North Carolina Saturday night into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 920 AM Wednesday, stratus is being stubborn this morning but should generally diminish with heating in the next hour or so. Shortwave that moved through overnight bringing areas of showers continues to move offshore with weak subsidence in place across the region. NW surface winds should back to SW later in the day with temperatures upper 80s to near 90 inland and mid/upper 80s beaches. Mixed signals from the high-resolution models with regards to precipitation this afternoon with the HRRR remaining dry and the NSSL WRF showing development of activity along the seabreeze after 18z. Will continue previous forecast with low chance PoPs inland and slight chance coast as weak interactions could produce a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Model guidance indicates another short wave approaching tonight with possible scattered showers and tstms overnight, thus kept previous forecast 30% POPs all zones. Min temps around 70 inland to mid 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wed...Unsettled weather expected into early next week as frontal boundary stalls over Eastern NC. Thursday through Saturday...Weak boundary over the area early Thursday will push N/W by afternoon with low level flow becoming S/SE. Boundary and weak trough expected to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. SPC has much of Eastern NC in a marginal risk of severe weather Thu. Forecast soundings show surface based CAPE values 2000-3000 J/KG, LI values -5 to -7C, and 20-30 knots of shear. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon/evening with damaging winds and heavy rain. Frontal boundary will remain north of the area Friday into early Saturday with warm moist SW flow. Scattered shower/tstm threat continues, mainly diurnally driven. 00Z guidance now moving the front into the northern CWA faster than previous runs...pushing into the northern cwa Sat afternoon. Increased pops to high chance Sat as front approaches from the north. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s. Saturday night through Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues into this holiday weekend into early next week. Upper level flow becomes more zonal, but slow moving front should provide enough of a focus combined deep moisture and weak upper level energy aloft to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to sink southward Sat night and Sunday as waves of low pressure develop along it. The front will likely remained stalled across Eastern NC into Monday before washing out...it may not even make it through the southern zones like previously thought. Will continue high chance/likely pops Sat night into Monday. At this time think the main threat will be periods of heavy rain with PWAT values around 2 inches. Instability will likely be limited with widespread cloud cover. Temps into early next week look near to slightly below climo with clouds and precip. Low level thickness values and 850mb temps support highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s and overnight lows in the 70s. Models show shortwave moving out of the OH Valley Monday night into Tuesday with surface low developing over VA. Decreasing moisture and best forcing north of the area...though could still be enough to continue threat of scattered showers/tstms. Low level SW flow returns with gradual warm up expected. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /Through 12Z Thursday/.. As of 730 AM Wednesday...Current widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will improve to VFR by 14Z. Scattered convective activity developing again this afternoon but less coverage than on Tuesday. Additional activity possible overnight. MVFR fog likely again late tonight for inland sections. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wed...Any low clouds and fog should lift by mid- morning Thursday becoming VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the period, mainly diurnally driven...with periods of sub-VFR possible. Patchy fog and stratus will be possible each morning with moist boundary layer and light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 920 AM Wednesday, light NW winds on all area waters currently. Most guidance shows winds will back to S/SW this afternoon around high pressure offshore. Winds speeds should remain at or below 15 knots with seas 2-3 ft. No major changes to the marine forecast at this time. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed...Weak frontal boundary will remain stalled across Eastern NC early Thursday, then lift back to the N/W by Thu afternoon. Light winds early becoming S/SW 10-15 knots with seas building to 2-4 feet Thursday afternoon. SW winds 5-15 knots will continue over the waters through Friday, increasing to 10-20 knots Friday night. Could see seas build up to 5 feet on the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front will push southward into the area late Saturday and then stall across the NC waters into early next week. Wind directions will be challenging late weekend into early next week and will depend on eventual placement of front...mainly N/NE behind the front and SW ahead of it. Winds generally aob 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet Sat and Sun. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JBM/CQD MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD

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