Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KMHX 091503 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1003 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GULF. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WAS SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY 18Z. RAIN IS STILL FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL INITIALLY BE INHIBITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 900 MB. THINKING IS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR FAR WEST AROUND 19Z AND FAR EAST AROUND 22Z. TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS HAVING DOUBTS THAT HIGHS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. WILL KEEP LARGE RANGE IN WITH LOWER 40S WEST AND AROUND 50 COAST BUT MAY NEED TO TWEAK COAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUE...THE DEEPER NAM/GEM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR HSE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH POORER MODEL INITIALIZATION AND PREFERRED S TRACK HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE FCST. COLD NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY GULF STREAM CONVECTION FROM REACHING THE COAST AS IT IS. THE T/TD WILL LIKELY WARM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...BUT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INLAND. THE LOW WILL BE STRONGLY NEG TILTED OVERNIGHT...WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EXP OFF DELMARVA INTO EARLY WED. THE STRONG PRES GRAD AND MIXING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFT 06Z THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID LVLS WILL ERODE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WED. THE DRIER AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG MIXING ON WED...AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE WILL SEE LOW LVL JET AROUND 55KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DO NOT HAVE WIND GUSTS THIS HIGH AS TEMPS EXP TO BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AS STRONG CAA AND LOW TD FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 30% INLAND. WIND ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY INLAND...AND HIGH WIND CRITERIA ALONG OBX POSSIBLE. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WED AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SOME STCU DEVELOPING. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING MARINE LLV MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND EXITING LOW LATE WED...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE AS PLUMMETING TDS LIKELY TO DROP RH TOO LOW FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. THIS IF FORTUNATE SINCE TEMPS WILL EASILY BE BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FZ DZ POSSIBLE IN FAR N SECTIONS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS COLDEST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SHOWING WIND CHILLS VALUES WED NT INTO THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUE...NW FLOW ALOFT AND COLD THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE SE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. A FEW DAYS OF DRIER WX IS WELCOME AS RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY WILL COMPOUND THE PROBLEM. THE TAR/NEUSE PROJECTIONS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR MOD FLOODING LATE WEEK. ALL EYES THEN ONCE AGAIN TURN TO A S STREAM LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE S ROUTE THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF LOWS...THIS ONE BEING WELL TO OUR S...KEEPING PRECIP THREAT OUT OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER N (LIKE HPC SUGGESTS WITH A SLOWER/MORE N ROUTE)...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LATE FRI NT/SAT. AT THIS POINT IMPACTS LOOK MINOR COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL ROUNDS OF COASTAL LOWS...BUT A MORE N TRACK COULD LEAD TO WINTER CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 10 AM TUE...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GOM WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING BRINGING LOWERING CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS RTES. GENERALLY LIGHT ELY FLOW AOB 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WED. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCU PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WED. VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WED AND CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 30-40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE GROUND WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PULLS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 10 AM TUE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND/BUOY SITES INDICATE MARINE FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PREV DISC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS BELOW 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. LOW PRES IN THE GOM WILL TRANSITION TO THE SC/GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON..THEN LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. ELY FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH WAVEWATCH INITIALIZING TO LOW AND SWAN APPEARS TO BUILD ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS WAVE GRIDS WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS BUILDING ACROSS THE SRN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THE HIGHEST FOR SEAS TODAY. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE NRN OBX AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENTS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LLJ TO AROUND 55 KT AND DEEP MIXING ASSOC WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING GALE FORCE WLY WINDS AROUND 30-40 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESP WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A STORM WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD. ACROSS LAND AREAS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS OBX DARE AND HYDE AS GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR AREAS INLAND TO REACH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT ANTICIPATE A WIND ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED REMAINING COUNTIES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS THIS WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES AND OTHER ASSOC DAMAGE. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE WATER IN THE SOUNDS TO THE OBX AND EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SOUNDSIDE FLOODING EVENT FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. ADCIRC SHOWING WATER LEVELS FROM KITTY HAWK SOUTH TO HATTERAS VILLAGE REACHING AROUND 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND OCRACOKE AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS IN THE SOUNDS FROM SIGNIFICANT RIVER DRAINAGE INTO THE SOUND EXPECT WATER LEVEL RISES AROUND 3 TO 4 FT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...ACROSS SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS PRONE TO FLOODING. WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING AS THE LOW PRES AREA PULLS E OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL BRING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT TROUGH FRI. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY WILL MOVE E/NE...PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND E SATURDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ103-104. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-104. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135- 150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...HSA/SK MARINE...HSA/SK
