Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KMHX 221554 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1054 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --DRY WEDGE HAS CONTINUED TO DELAY LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE ARRIVAL OVR THE FCST AREA THIS MORN. SOLID CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING NORTH OF SC/NC BORDER BUT TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW POSSIBLY MID 60S BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD ARRIVAL. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS WEAKENING SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN A FEW HOURS TO THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS AS IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LEVEL. LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION FOR THIS AFTN.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE RAIN. FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA. A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LCL IFR AT KPGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. IFR WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON. LOW PRES WILL DEPART MON NIGHT BUT LOW LVL MSTR LIKELY TO REMAIN...RESULTING IN IFR CIGS PSBLY INTO WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THU WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN. && .MARINE... PRES GRAD RELAXING SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S. SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH GRAD WILL RELAX TODAY AND MAINLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. GRAD EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM SW. MODELS LIKELY SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF LOW...THUS CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA WINDS...AND POSTED SCA FOR ALB AND PAM SOUNDS AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NRN WATERS MON WHILE WINDS DECREASE REST OF AREA WITH LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ACROSS. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH CAA IN WAKE OF LOW PRES BUT THEN DIMINISH TUE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR WED-THU DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVE ALONG COAST THU. BLEND OF SWAN AND WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THEN WW3 REST OF PERIOD. SCA SEAS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN WATERS UNTIL EARLY TUE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...BTC/RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...JBM MARINE...JBM
