Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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000
FXUS62 KMHX 190120
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
920 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week,
bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move
through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS
continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the
trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of
the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of
100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to
support some light showers this evening and overnight, even
though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow
moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite
imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar.
However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air
in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the
precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and
evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best
chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10")
will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and
strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying
20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/.
Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues
its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the
trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur
after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of
CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a
couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in
the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper
30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs
in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be
building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring
drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect
for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of
the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid
50s Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid
week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong
low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week
into the weekend.
Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week
with cool high pressure building into the area through
Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area
Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building
back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s
Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of
freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which
still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in
the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post
frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler
Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able
to decouple patchy frost is possible.
Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though
there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and
run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple
impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy
rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding
below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing,
track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to
increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast.
Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are
expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be
possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the
area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be
lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030
group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach
30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses,
then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear
rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday
will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Evening through Friday/... As of 245 AM
Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W
winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be
increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low
pressure system approaches.
&&
.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this
evening, and will become gusty NW`rly overnight as an upper
trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional
gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the
Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in
the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the
outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly
diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the
approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to
subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will
continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA
conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the
waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW
winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and
Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through
the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds
possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to
impact the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 430 PM Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected
through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday.
Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph.
Tue - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and
breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.
Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph.
Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a
strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into
the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing
and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor
to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and
oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor
erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island
may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to
fine tune the forecast over the next few days.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-
135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD/RJ
MARINE...JME/CQD/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX