Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 261400 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will meander just off the coast through Tuesday Night. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 10 AM Monday...Latest sfc analysis is showing the frontal boundary off the Carolina coast has pushed farther SE with most of the precipitation along it. Therefore have decreased PoPs with the support of the latest High-Res models. Still kept PoPs along the southern waters as some showers may skirt along the waters. Today will be a comfortable day as dewpoints will be lowering which will lead to more sunshine and rain-free across Eastern NC. Expect highs in the low/mid 80s across the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Surface ridge will slowly start to build in from the west tonight pushing frontal boundary further offshore as axis of mid-level trough approaches. This will serve to push any precipitation even further offshore and will forecast dry weather overnight. Pleasant temperatures for late June expected tonight with lower 60s inland ranging to the lower 70s Outer Banks as dewpoints drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Scattered showers expected Tuesday. Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late week into next weekend with temps a few degrees above normal and scattered diurnal driven convection. Tuesday through Tuesday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday into Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal instability but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop to -12/-14C, could see some small hail especially a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. Will continue chance PoPs with slight chance thunder, but think it will be isolated. Low level thickness values and predominant N/E flow support highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Much cooler Tue night with lows dropping into the upper 50s inland and mid 60s along the coast. Wednesday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will move overhead Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly warm back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and highs creep back to the mid 80s/90 degrees late week and the weekend. Low temps in the 60s mid week, then warming back into the 70s this weekend. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late week into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure offshore. Dry wx will cont through late week, with scattered diurnal convective chances by the weekend. Will continue chance pops inland/sc along the coast Sat and Sun, with isolated precip overnight. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Tuesday/... As of 715 AM Monday...Patchy mid to high level clouds will persist through most of the day today, thicker east of the TAF sites near the coast. Most of the remainder of the forecast will be in the VFR category, but with winds likely to decouple inland tonight, will forecast some radiational fog as temps/dewpoint drop with MVFR vsbys from about 08z-12z Tuesday morning. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will be possible most mornings. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 10 AM Monday...Latest buoy observations are showing N/NE 10-15 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Made minor tweaks to the wind forecast to reflect observations. Winds will continue to veer from the NE/E by later this morning then to S/SW by tonight ahead of next cold front, but speeds should remain at 10 knots or less. Seas will remain at 3 feet or less through the period. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Generally benign and pleasant boating conditions expected through late week. A weak cold front will move through early Tuesday, N/NW winds 5-10 kt early, becoming NE/E with seas around 2 ft. Surface high pressure will build over the area Tuesday night from the northwest, crest over the waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday. Winds will shift to north/northeast 5-15 kts Wednesday, then become southeast to south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Gradient will tighten Fri with high pressure offshore and troughing inland, S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt. Seas will be generally 2-3 ft.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/BM SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG/CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD/BM

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