Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 171914 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 314 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will build over the region through late this week. The high will slide offshore over the weekend. A strong cold front will approach early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 250 PM Tuesday...Strong surface high pressure building in from NW will produce fair and cool condtions again tonight. Upper trough axis will move offshore this evening and take thicker high clouds with it, but some cold air SCU expected to affect mainly Outer Banks into overnight hours. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop to around 40 inland while breezy NNE winds will keep Outer Banks in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Tuesday...Surface high will remain in control with some upper ridging aloft. NE flow will likely produce additional SCU along coast mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Temps will moderate to around 70 inland with mid 60s northern Outer Banks.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 pm Tue...High pressure will be the dominant feature through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push through the region early next week. Wednesday night through Friday...High pressure will build into the region and remain through the end of the week bringing clear and dry weather with light northeast winds through this period. Low relative humidities will spell mild days and seasonably cool nights. Temps start out a bit below normal with lows in the mid 40s interior to mid/upr 50s beaches Wed morning, then as the week goes on low level thicknesses rise each day with high temps creeping back above climo with readings 75-80 on Friday. Lows each night remain near climo as atms remains quite dry with the high overhead and continued light NE winds. Saturday through Sunday...High pressure will move offshore, and winds will veer a bit more to the east and eventually southeast. This will mean steadily increasing RH values and temps. High temps around 80 for most areas, with lows 50-55 interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very low so continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies. Monday and Tuesday...Next significant shortwave/cold front moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. Ahead of the system, winds become southerly and strengthen by Monday bringing surge of increasing deep layer moisture into the region, with increasing clouds and shower chances. Have maintained the small chance pops for Monday, increasing a bit to 40-50% Mon night and Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /through 18z Wednesday/... As of 200 PM Tuesday...High confidence in VFR thru the period. Some SCU will persist along coast tonight into Wednesday but TAF sites expected to be SKC. Patchy steam fog possible at KPGV late tonight but confidence is low. N-NE winds will gust to around 20 KT this afternoon, then expected to become light tonight. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 pm Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term as high pressure builds into the region. However, there will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and some patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with their proximity to rivers.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 200 PM Tuesday...winds have diminished over Albemarle Sound and Alligator River and allowed SCA to expire there. NE Winds expected to continue to diminish tonight but secondary surge likely for southern waters Wednesday. Seas will be slow to subside with heights around 6 ft expected south of Oregon Inlet into Wed night. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 pm Tue...SCA conditions look to continue through Wednesday night south of Oregon Inlet as NE gradient still producing 15-20 kt winds across the coastal waters and seas 4-7 feet. The gradient relaxes later Thursday through the weekend with high pressure nearby and thus N to NE winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the marine zones.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JBM/HSA

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