Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180030 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 730 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue southeast of the area through Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday night and move through on Wednesday. High pressure builds back in for Thursday. A warm front will lift through the area late in the week. A weakening cold front will move into the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 730 PM Sunday...Updated to increase pops for the next few hours across the area based on latest radar trends and some obs showing -RA. A weakening shortwave will cross this evening. Expect clouds to thicken in lower by early evening and may see some very light showers or sprinkles cross thru mid to late evening. Deeper moisture will begin to move SE of region late with decreasing clouds from NW to SE. Milder than past few nights with lows upr 30s N where skies will clear first to low/mid 40s S and E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Deeper moisture pushes well to the S with PC to msunny skies expected over region. Increasing thicknesses support mild highs mostly in the 60 to 65 dgr range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Sun...The long term period will feature above normal temps, with a rainy period centered around mid week, then another chance of showers late in the work week through next weekend as an arctic cold front approaches the region. Monday Night through Tuesday...Maintained the dry forecast, as zonal flow will be in place along with mild conditions due to heights/thicknesses above normal for late Dec. The dampening short wave will be moisture starved as low levels will be quite dry, so only expected occasional clouds streaming through, esp southern half of the FA. Highs should warm further into the upper 60s/lower 70s on Tuesday per low lvl thicknesses and MOS guide. Tuesday Night through Thursday...17/00Z operational global model suite of ECMWF/CMC/GFS all in good agreement with southern stream system ejecting out of the SW CONUS and sliding through the SE CONUS mid week. Despite the system dampening as it approaches and moves through, jet dynamics remain favorable for widespread rain as area is under right entrance region of subtropical jet on Wed. Best UVV will be from Wed morning through early Thur evening, and thus have corresponding highest pops (50-70%), highest southern half during this time frame. UKMET/ECMWF are most bullish on QPF amounts and indicate around an inch or so of rain. The system will be exiting the region Wed night, though have hung on to a small POP mainly early Thur due to some ensemble spread indicating rain holding on during the first part of the day. Temps during this period held down a bit into the 50s due to the clouds/rain. Mild temps continue overnight with lows generally in the 40s. Friday through Saturday...A pattern change is in store for much of the country late in the week, as amplifying ridge across the East Coast takes briefly takes hold due to arctic air mass diving into the Upper Midwest/High Plains. This will spell a return southerly flow across E NC with warm front potentially bringing some showers as early as Friday, then area in warm sector early in the weekend with shower chances ahead of slowly approaching arctic cold front. While good ensemble agreement is apparent with the synoptic regime late in the week, timing and amplitude details will have to be worked out onto when the potential arctic air arrives into E NC if it does at all, as spread is quite large next weekend with regards to height fields. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 630 PM Sunday...VFR conditions currently across the area, with broken to overcast mid clouds. Mid clouds will lower this evening as weak shortwave crosses. A sprinkle or two poss this evening but no impact to vsbys expected. Confidence is low at this time but there is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop across the southernmost TAF sites (EWN/ISO/OAJ) early Mon and persist through the day. Will keep VFR but there is potential for tempo periods of MVFR. Clouds should limit any fog potential overnight. Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sun...High pressure ridges in early in the week with dry conditions through Tuesday. Rain chances increase dramatically Tue night and esp Wednesday as quick moving low pressure moves through. Along with the rain will come a chance of sub VFR conditions for a time. FG/BR is also possible Monday night as dewpoints will be on the rise and skies mostly clear with light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Monday/... As of 630 PM Sunday...Latest obs show variable light winds and seas across the waters this evening, generally W/S 10 kt or less and seas 1-2 ft. Excellent boating conditions cont as high pressure slowly move SE of region. This will lead to mainly SW to W flow below 15 kts and seas 1 to 3 feet. Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sun...Winds will be generally W to SW 5-15 kt through Tue as zonal flow takes hold. Seas will be 1-3 ft. SW winds increase to 10-20 kt Tue night ahead of low pressure that will move through on Wed. Seas will increase to 2-4 ft with locally higher seas by Tue night into Wed. Behind the departing low late Wed night through Thur, chance of SCA conditions develop as winds turn NE and increase to 15-25 kt with building seas around 6 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/TL NEAR TERM...RF/CQD SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/CQD/TL MARINE...RF/CQD/TL

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