Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260650 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the Atlantic will build in this afternoon through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures and below normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and cross Monday night or Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 250 AM Wed...Latest sfc analysis shows stacked low off the Delmarva coast. High pressure to the east will gradually build westward over the SE US today, as upper ridge builds. Latest satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus pushing into the area early this morning as moisture wraps around the distant low. Could see patchy fog develop as well. Clouds will push off the coast late morning and early afternoon, becoming partly cloudy. Low level thickness values and W/WSW flow support highs several degrees above normal, mid 70s to low 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Wed...Quiet night as high continues to build in, with skies clearing. Overnight lows in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/..330 PM Tue. As of 230 AM Wed...Warm and mainly dry thru the weekend then rain chances increase early next week as a cold front crosses. Thu through Sun...This period will be dominated by surface high pressure offshore with ridging aloft. There is a rapidly dampening short wave that will pass to the NW later Thu night and Fri morn with potential for widely sct to sct convection. Have 20 to 30 pops later Thu night with best chcs late near cst. Outside of this precip looks mostly dry with just a few widely sct shra/tsra poss most afternoons and evenings assoc with sea breeze. With predominately southwest flow thru the weekend will have very warm temps with highs mostly 85 to 90 inland and upper 70s to lower 80s beaches. Early summer like lows in the 60s to lower 70s. Mon through Tue...A cold front will approach from the W Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will remain warm Mon with chc of some convection espcly inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Both GFS and ECMWF show good moisture and rainfall Mon night so have good chc pops all areas for this time. Looks like weakening front will slide offshore Tue with lingering shra ending from W to E. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then cool into the 70s Tue behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 250 AM Wed...High confidence in widespread sub-VFR conditions this morning, mainly in the form of IFR ceilings. Latest obs show IFR ceilings moving into the area early this morning, already at PGV/ISO/OAJ. Could see some patchy fog as well, but think main restriction will be cigs. Ceilings will gradually improve to VFR by late morning/early afternoon, becoming mostly clear tonight. Long Term /Thu through Sunday/... As of 230 AM Wed...VFR should dominate most of this period. May have wdly sct to sct shra and tsra Thu night as weakening short wave crosses...otherwise mainly dry with just isold late day shra/tsra poss with sea breeze. SW flow around offshore high pres shld limit threat for late night fog.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 250 AM Wed...Latest obs show W winds 10-20kt, with seas 5-8 feet, highest across the outer central waters. Swell from now distant low pressure system will continue to impact the waters through the period, with seas slowly subsiding. W winds 5-15 kt today, becoming S/SW this afternoon. SCA continues for the coastal waters for lingering elevated seas, with seas subsiding to below 6 ft this afternoon and evening. Expect elevated seas to linger for the central waters through late this evening. SW winds 10-15 kt tonight, with seas 3-6 feet. Long Term /Thu through Sun/... As of 230 AM wed...Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected thru the period around offshore high pres. These winds combined with some lingering swell may lead to 6 foot seas outer central and srn wtrs later Thu into Fri evening...otherwise seas of 3 to 5 feet rest of the period.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 250 AM Wed...The Tar River in Greenville is currently forecast to crest above major flood stage, while Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is expected to crest above moderate flood stage. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin and Neuse River in Kinston expected to reach minor flooding tonight.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103- 104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD HYDROLOGY...MHX

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