Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200157 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 957 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will become stationary across the area tonight into Sunday, then dissipate early next week. Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next week and move through the area by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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As of 955 pm Sat...Latest sfc analysis shows 1000mb low over northern Quebec, with attendant cold front draped through the NE US, and down into Eastern NC. Front looks to be extending from NE NC down through the coastal plain and back into central NC this evening. The front will remain nearly stationary across the area tonight. Latest radar imagery shows shower activity pushing well offshore and expect pred dry conditions overnight with clouds gradually clearing. Areas of fog possible overnight, with clearing skies, winds decoupling and temps reaching/near crossover temps. Added fog to forecast based on good agreement between high res guidance and forecast soundings. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 3 pm Sat...A still hot but mainly dry airmass for the majority of the area. Slightly higher moisture will be found near and south of the front itself, and that is where we will confine precip chances to just a slight chance. Highs will be in the lower 90s along the coastal plain inland to mid/upper 80s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 pm Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast with a quiet start to the week followed by a frontal passage with widespread showers and thunderstorms mid week and cooler and drier air for the end of the week into next weekend. Sunday Night through Tuesday...A front will wash out across the. area. The end result will be a slightly more comfortable but still seasonably hot and humid air mass. There will be slightly higher moisture near and south of the front itself, and that is where we will confine precip chances. Highs through the period will be around 90 inland to mid 80s at the beaches. Wednesday into Thursday...Best shot for precipitation over the extended period will come late Wednesday into Thursday as a new, stronger front moves into the area. With consistency in for this period. models for this feature, elevated PoPs to 60% Wednesday Night into Thursday. Friday into Saturday....Good news with the frontal passage will be some significant relief from the heat and humidity. Expect mostly dry conditions with highs in the lower 80s both Friday and Saturday and lows falling into the mid 60s inland. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 630 pm Saturday...VFR conditions currently, with IFR fog possible overnight and early Sunday morning. Precip will continue to move east of the sites in the next hour or so becoming pred dry overnight. Skies will gradually clear, winds will be calm and temps are expected to reach/near crossover temps overnight, so widespread fog, locally dense at times, will be possible. Fog and stratus should lift quickly after sunrise Sunday morning becoming pred VFR. Isolated showers and storms possible Sunday, with best chances S/E of the sites. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 pm Saturday...VFR through Tuesday. Sub VFR conditions possible late Wednesday into Thursday in scattered showers and storms. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 955 pm Sat...Latest obs show winds SE/SW 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Quiet boating conditions in the short term with a stationary front over the inland areas. South of Oregon Inlet winds will be mainly south to southwest 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. North of Oregon Inlet and on the Albemarle Sound winds will be variable 5 to 10 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 pm Saturday...Quiet boating conditions continue through Tuesday. During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with wave heights 2 to 3 feet. With a boundary near the coastal waters wind directions will vary quite a bit during this time depending on location on the water (north to south). Tuesday Night winds begin to increase out of the south as a front approaches and by Wednesday marine conditions become less favorable. Ahead of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20 KT, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet as a gradient tightens ahead of the front. Timing of the frontal passage will begin Wednesday Night and by Thursday it should be through all the waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet Thursday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...RSB/CQD MARINE...RSB/CQD/HSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.