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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 171914
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build over the region through late
this week. The high will slide offshore over the weekend. A
strong cold front will approach early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 250 PM Tuesday...Strong surface high pressure building in
from NW will produce fair and cool condtions again tonight.
Upper trough axis will move offshore this evening and take
thicker high clouds with it, but some cold air SCU expected to
affect mainly Outer Banks into overnight hours. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop to
around 40 inland while breezy NNE winds will keep Outer Banks in
the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 250 PM Tuesday...Surface high will remain in control with
some upper ridging aloft. NE flow will likely produce additional
SCU along coast mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Temps will
moderate to around 70 inland with mid 60s northern Outer Banks.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 pm Tue...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push
through the region early next week.

Wednesday night through Friday...High pressure will build into
the region and remain through the end of the week bringing
clear and dry weather with light northeast winds through this
period. Low relative humidities will spell mild days and
seasonably cool nights. Temps start out a bit below normal with
lows in the mid 40s interior to mid/upr 50s beaches Wed morning,
then as the week goes on low level thicknesses rise each day
with high temps creeping back above climo with readings 75-80 on
Friday. Lows each night remain near climo as atms remains quite
dry with the high overhead and continued light NE winds.

Saturday through Sunday...High pressure will move offshore, and
winds will veer a bit more to the east and eventually
southeast. This will mean steadily increasing RH values and
temps. High temps around 80 for most areas, with lows 50-55
interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very low so
continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies.

Monday and Tuesday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. Ahead of the
system, winds become southerly and strengthen by Monday bringing
surge of increasing deep layer moisture into the region, with
increasing clouds and shower chances. Have maintained the small
chance pops for Monday, increasing a bit to 40-50% Mon night and
Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...High confidence in VFR thru the period.
Some SCU will persist along coast tonight into Wednesday but TAF
sites expected to be SKC. Patchy steam fog possible at KPGV late
tonight but confidence is low. N-NE winds will gust to around
20 KT this afternoon, then expected to become light tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region. However,
there will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and
some patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with
their proximity to rivers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...winds have diminished over Albemarle
Sound and Alligator River and allowed SCA to expire there. NE Winds
expected to continue to diminish tonight but secondary surge
likely for southern waters Wednesday. Seas will be slow to
subside with heights around 6 ft expected south of Oregon Inlet
into Wed night.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 pm Tue...SCA conditions look to continue through
Wednesday night south of Oregon Inlet as NE gradient still
producing 15-20 kt winds across the coastal waters and seas 4-7
feet. The gradient relaxes later Thursday through the weekend
with high pressure nearby and thus N to NE winds 5-10 kt and
seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the
marine zones.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA