Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 221629 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15 TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...BTC/DAG MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG

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