-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 282330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 720 PM MON...DEEP CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
VERY LARGE HAIL OVER SRN TIER IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP POPS
SRN BEACHES A WHILE LONGER THEN MAINLY DRY LATE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG
DEVELOP WHERE IT RAINED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS AS
DEWPTS MAY DROP A BIT LATE AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE CST.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S WELL INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS
H85 MB FLOW REMAINS SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE BRINGING LIGHT NLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING
THROUGH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

BY FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOIST S TO SW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SEASONABLE
DEWPOINT TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED DEEP INLAND AND SINCE THEY RECEIVED NO
RAIN NOT EXPECTING FOG. CLOSER TO COAST DEWPTS STILL HIGH AND WILL
BE SLOW TO DROP LATER PLUS THERE WAS RAIN SO ADDED LOW END MVFR
VSBYS TO EWN AND OAJ. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL RAPIDLY BURNOFF TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED REST OF THE DAY WITH MCLR SKIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM MON...FCST TRNDS LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES OTHER THAN
REDUCING OR REMOVING PRECIP MENTION OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH
OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS N-NE 10-15
KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT TUES NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY LESS THAN
15 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JAC/SK