Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 210809 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 309 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPS TO FALL TO DEWPOINTS...YIELDING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUD DECK OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC MAY MIGRATE NORTH HELPING TO INHIBIT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BOUNCE AROUND FROM CALM TO 5 KNOTS HELPING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE LIMITED FOG IN GRIDS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE...POSSIBLY DISSIPATING PRIOR TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF EASTERN NC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TODAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW ROUGHLY 750 MB...BUT EXPECT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF CARTERET/ONSLOW COUNTIES TODAY. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND/NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE COLUMN WHILE A SHORTWAVE VORTMAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING WITH LIKELIES FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 264 LATE. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERLY CAA LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX...CREATING A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR COASTAL REGIONS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IN QUICK SUCCESSION IMPACT THE REGION. MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INLAND AS INSITU DAMMING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT DAMP CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE FAVORED IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. TEMP FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TRICKY AS GUIDANCE PERFORMS POORLY IN THESE DAMMING PATTERNS. LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND IT NOW APPEARS THE RAIN WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INLAND, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING IMMEDIATE COAST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS IT DEEPENS...AND 21/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ON WED AS THE REGION IS IN FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF 140+ KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE OMEGA/FRONTOGENSIS BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT IN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER ALL AREAS DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THIS COULD MEAN A SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS LIKELY REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS S FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE 60S EARLY WED AND LOOK TO REACH THE 70S BY WED AFTERNOON. TEMPS COULD BE IN THE RECORD HIGH TERRITORY AS 850MB TEMP M-CLIMATE PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO THE GEFS. ANY SUNSHINE REALIZED ON WED WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST PRODUCING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS WESTERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO FRI INTO SAT WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...MVFR AVIATION CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT EASTERN NC THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOME VFR WITH CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC/CAPE FEAR SHOULD BUILD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF SITES EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF IFR FOG BUT CONFIDENCE WAS VERY LOW SO CAPPED VSBYS AT MVFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET OR GREATER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE MONDAY AS STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK AND TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO WEST AND GUSTY ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THUR AND FRI.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/DAG MARINE...JME/DAG

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