Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KMHX 041800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016
High pressure will extend over the area from the north this
afternoon and move offshore tonight. Low pressure will move
quickly up the coast tonight and then offshore Monday, followed by
high pressure late Monday. Complex low pressure will develop
across the area Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday. A strong cold
front will move through Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1 PM Sunday, very light rain continues to fall from high
cloud bases this afternoon as the low-levels continue to slowly
saturate as the axis of high theta-e values slowly moves north.
Made no big changes to the afternoon forecast as PoPs increase
late. Clouds/precip will hold afternoon maximum temperatures in
the low/mid 50s. Any rainfall amounts this afternoon will be very
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...Models in good agreement with widespread
rain all areas tonight and will have likely POPs this evening
increasing to categorical overnight with QPF up to around 0.50
inch. Min temps mainly low to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Rain will move offshore during the morning
Monday. A break expected in the rain Monday afternoon through
evening before another round moves through late Monday night
through Tuesday. Dry and warm mid week followed by a strong cold
front and arctic air Friday into next weekend.
Monday...Good model consensus with respect to first round of rain
moving offshore Monday morning. High pressure will nose into E NC
Monday afternoon through early evening with dry conditions.
Thicknesses/hts do rise a bit behind the exiting system despite
wind switch to the NW. Highs should reach the 55-60 degree range.
Monday Night into Tuesday...Strong compact shortwave trough will
eject out of the southern plains Monday night and move through the
TN/OH valley Tuesday. 04/00Z model suite remains in good
agreement with this system bringing another round of rain during
this time frame. Strong omega develops late Mon night as
strengthening S flow develops on 50 kt LLJ. The region will be in
RRQ of upper jet and will induce large area of div q over the
region. Deep southerly flow downstairs combined with large area of
omega advancing towards E NC will spread in rain from west to
east after midnight and have an increasing pop trend through the
overnight as a result. First half of Tue will be a washout as deep
moisture/lift is maximized over the area. Second area of
cyclogenesis progged to develop along the NC coast and quickly
exit on Tuesday with winds becoming NW behind the exiting system.
It will be warm despite the rain with highs in the 60s east to
mid/upr 50s coastal plain which should remain in northerly flow on
cool side of the low.
Tuesday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions return with
subsidence and advancing high pres behind the departing system.
It will continue to be mild as upr ridge amplifies across the
eastern CONUS in response to deepening trough across the
Intermountain West and Plains states. Temps above climo expected
with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Friday through Sunday...Aforementioned trough across the
western/central CONUS will translate eastward bringing coldest
air mass of the season to much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.
Strong cold front will push through E NC by Fri with strong CAA
ensuing behind it. Blustery and cold conditions expected Friday
through Sat with high temps in the 40s and lows 20-25 interior to
low 30s OBX.
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 1145 AM Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through this
evening, before MVFR and eventually IFR conditions take over
tonight. Ceilings currently 7-8 Kft will gradually lower
throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening. Spotty drizzle
will be possible during this time frame, but the heavier rain
will hold off until overnight. MVFR ceilings are likely after 7 pm
or so, and will drop to IFR levels after midnight. LIFR conditions
may be possible soon after this but confidence is low on any
extended period of LIFR. Rain and low clouds will exit the
airspace quickly Monday morning and VFR conditions should return
by mid morning.
Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Skies may lift to VFR on Monday though lower
again Monday night into Tuesday with strong low pressure moving
across the area and more widespread rain. The low will exit Tue
afternoon and evening though low clouds and fog may persist on Tue
night. High pres builds in for Wed into Thur bringing return to
VFR conditions. Strong cold front will push through Thur night
into Fri with gusty NW winds developing behind it.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1 PM Sunday, winds are now mainly north at 5-10 knots with a
few gusts near 15 knots around Diamond Buoy. Seas continue in the
3-5 foot range. No major changes made to the forecast for ths
afternoon. Surface high center building in from NW will be over
waters late today into evening, then move offshore overnight with
developing low pressure moving up quickly from SW late tonight.
Wind forecast for today fairly straight forward with current N
winds 5-15 KT with higher gusts outer northern and central waters
becoming N-NE this afternoon. More complex forecast for tonight as
developing low and associated coastal front likely to bisect
waters SW to NE overnight but exact position still uncertain. Does
appear strongest winds to around 20 KT mainly for outer most
portions of southern and central waters after 4 AM.
Waves will subside to 2-3 feet this evening, then building to 3-5
feet outer southern and central waters again overnight.
Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Weak coastal low pres trough moves offshore on
Monday with winds becoming NW and gusty behind it. It now appears
enough of a gradient develops to produce SCA winds/seas north of
Hatteras. A stronger low pres area develops and moves up the coast
on Tue, bringing strong gusty winds and probable SCA conditions.
Tough to pin down the speed and direction of winds at this time as
the low will be passing through the marine domain making timing of
wind switch difficult this far out in time, but it appears gusty
easterly winds ahead of the low will then switch to the NW and
remain gusty as the low exits. The low will exit Tue night with
winds diminishing on Wednesday. Winds back to the SW or W by Thur
with approach of strong cold front that will move through the
waters Thur night or Fri bringing another round of gusty 20-30 kt
winds in its wake.