Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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751 FXUS62 KMHX 100201 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 901 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...JME/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JME/BM MARINE...JME/CTC/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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