-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 030830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THEN INFLUENCES THE AREA WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S OUTER BANKS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AFTER
03Z TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE AND WILL INCLUDE
20-30% POPS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THE FLOW WILL
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH LEADING TO MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM TUE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC
WED. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THEN TRANSITIONING THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 65-70 DEGREES
WED. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOIST SW FLOW AND FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER
70S BY FRI. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SAT INTO SUN. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE
FOR SAT WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR SAT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE LIKELY. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS EARLY IN THE
DAY...FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW/AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUN INTO TUE WITH DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT OVERALL EXPECT COLD FRONT TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH SAT NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN
NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. TIMING
AND EXACT DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLOUDY/WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MON. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC...WITH GFS STILL QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT FOG AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA PRODUCES CALM WINDS.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS AREA OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BUT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT FOG. THIS FOG
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 6000 FT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE..MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP. PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WITH MOIST
BL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI
NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS SAT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED. N/NE WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. CURRENT NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FLOW
BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WATERS
WED WITH LIGHT SE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON. SW
FLOW 10-15KT GENERALLY EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH SEAS
2-4FT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6FT HIGHEST SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET. GOOD NORTHERLY SURGE 15-25KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT...WORKING ITS WAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD