-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200811
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
411 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions across the region. A weak cold front will
approach the region early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 AM Thurs...Mostly clear and calm conditions are
present across the region, and have allowed temps to cool into
the upper 60s and low 70s. Some intermittent fog has developed
near the Croatan Forest including New Bern and Havelock, and is
expected to persist through sunrise, and also develop further
to the southwest along the coast into Onslow and Duplin
counties. Visibility will generally drop to between 3-5 miles,
but could become locally denser. Lows this morning will reach
the upper 60s and low 70s inland, and the mid 70s along the
coast.

Upper level low finally moves out of the region today, and
heights begin to build. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to
warm quickly later this morning, and into the low 90s this
afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s especially
across the HWY 17 corridor. As the sea breeze develops and
pushes inland, a few showers could develop, and have a slight
chance PoP along the typical seabreeze zone.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM Thurs...Any isolated shower activity will quickly
die after sunset, and conditions will be dry overnight. Low
temps will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally
in the low 70s inland and the mid/upper 70s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...No significant changes with this
forecast issuance as models remain in good agreement and
continuity. Main issue during period will be the potential for
an extended period of dangerous heat and humidity for the area
with highs well into the 90s and Heat Index values of 105+
degrees from Friday through the weekend as an upper ridge
extends east into the area. Chances for rain will also be
minimal during this period with very little in the way of
measurable precipitation being indicated in the models from
Thursday through the weekend. Rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures are expected by early next week as the eastern US
upper trough amplifies and a weak cold front approaches the
area.

Friday through Sunday...00Z models remain in decent agreement
with extending the west-central upper ridge eastward while
another upper ridge moves into the western Atlantic. This
pattern will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below
normal convective coverage through the weekend. What activity
there is should be diurnally driven in the afternoon and early
evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible
upstream MCS development and possible effects on this area.
SPC has NE NC in marginal severe risk for Sat-Sat due to this
possibility but guidance currently keeps precip threat north of
Albemarle Sound, thus will continue advertising no higher than
a 20 pop through the weekend, mainly across interior zones.

00Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level thicknesses
1425-1430 meters Friday and around 1435-1440 meters Sat-Sun.
This will support max temps easily reaching the mid 90s each
day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s, critical Heat
Index values AOA 105 degrees are likely from Friday through
Sunday.

Forecast max temps will generally be at least 5 degrees below
record highs at most sites during period, with the exception of
KHSE and KNCA where forecast is within 3 degrees of records
mainly Sat-Sun. See Climate section below for details.

Monday through Wednesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat
developing.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /Through Thursday Night/...
As of 405 AM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the period. The exception will be some MVFR fog that will
develop later this morning. Have 5 miles visibility for KPGV and
KISO, and 3 miles for KEWN and KOAJ where rainfall earlier in
the day has increased low level moisture. There could be some
brief IFR conditions at these terminals also. VFR conditions
will return shortly after sunrise, a dry day expected with
partly cloudy skies and light winds.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR expected to prevail most of the
period with return of offshore high/inland trough pattern.
Friday and Sat looking dry with just a very small chance (20%)
of an afternoon or evening storm. There will also be occasional
brief sub- VFR conditions during the early morning hours with
the threat for low stratus and/or fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 405 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions are expected
through the short term. Winds are expected to be SW 5-10 kts
through tonight when winds increase to 10-15 kts. Seas will be
2-3 ft today and then increase to 2-4 ft late tonight. Continue
to observe long period swell 2 ft every 15-17 seconds, likely
from a very distant low pressure system.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...No significant changes to previous
forecast thinking. The flow is expected to remain SW 10 to 15 kt
across the waters through Friday as the surface pressure
pattern remains static with Atlantic high pressure and a weak
inland trough of low pressure influencing the weather through
the period. Winds speeds are forecast to increase to 10 to 20 kt
on the weekend as the gradient slightly increases with thermal
trough inland amplifying. Seas are expected to run mostly 2-3 ft
through Friday then increase to 3-4 ft with some 5 footers
possible over the outer waters Saturday. Some marginal SCA
conditions may develop Sunday into Monday especially central
and southern waters as gradient further increases with
approaching front to the NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Max Temps for 07/21 (Fri)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        103/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    94/1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/1977  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         106/1926  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    100/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/22 (Sat)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        106/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1987  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   100/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1932  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/2011  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        100/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1972  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      103/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/2011  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/SGK
CLIMATE...MHX