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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231705
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
105 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate tonight. A back door cold front
will push through the area early Sunday, with high pressure
building in from the north late Sunday into Monday. Another cold
front may move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, followed
by high pressure the remainder of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 105 PM Friday, isolated showers have developed along the
immediate coast along the sea breeze as of 1 pm. Latest 15-minute
HRRR guidance shows the bulk of the precipitation remaining near
the coast this afternoon as upper level trough slowly starts to
move out. Deep moisture in the low-levels keep low overcast in
place thus far today, but may see some thinning during the mid-
late afternoon and did not adjust maximum temperatures at this
time. Lowered PoPs for inland areas, but kept high chance near the
coast through early evening. Given the high precipitable water
values, some heavy downpours are likely.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...models in good agreement that upper trough
will move east of area overnight in response to upper trough
moving through NE US. Deeper moisture axis will shift offshore as
well with surface low dissipating, and will continue previous
forecast of only slight chance POPs along coast this evening and
then offshore overnight. Light winds and clearing skies will lead
to patchy fog threat inland late, and will allow temps to drop
into mid 60s inland and lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM Friday...We will have a drying trend in the first
part of the extended forecast. A back door cold front with limited
moisture will move through Eastern NC by early Sunday. High
pressure will build into the area Sunday and persist into Monday
bringing pleasant and seasonable weather. However, both the GFS
and latest ECMWF are more bullish on bringing another cold front
into the area that will create scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

Saturday into Monday...Most of the moisture associated with the
remnant Julia and upper low will be pushed to our south on
Saturday. A backdoor cold front moves through the area by early
Sunday bringing cooler air into the area, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Kept things dry on Saturday and with limited
moisture. Models suggest enough moisture associated with the
backdoor front to eek out a widely scattered to isolated shower,
so carried 20 percent PoPs across the area on Sunday.

Monday...We will have a brief transition day on Monday as the
surface high behind the backdoor front slides off the coast. Could
still see a widely scattered to isolated shower or thunderstorm on
Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The big model change in the forecast
is to be more progressive with an approaching from on Tuesday
that will push high pressure off the coast faster than previously
forecast. As a result made a significant increase in the chance of
a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday through Wednesday with a 30
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Should this model
trend hold could expect higher chance PoPs to be added to the
forecast somewhere in this time period with future updates.
Temperatures will be seasonal during this time period, with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s inland to
lower 70s on the coast.

Thursday through Friday...A potent upper low will pass to our
north on Thursday however, with a surface high and decreased
moisture moving into the area opted to keep the forecast dry on
Thursday. Dry and cooler weather will continue into Friday. On
Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 70s and mostly mid 70s
across the entire area on Friday. Lows could dip into the 50s with
a true taste of fall during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs will gradually lift
with heating to MVFR by 15Z and VFR by 17Z. Scattered
shower/isolated tstm threat will remain mainly along coast this
morning, then shift inland during afternoon. Upper level trough
will begin to shift east of area tonight, resulting in gradual
clearing this evening and precip threat moving off coast. Light
winds, mostly clear skies and lingering low level moisture will
likely lead to IFR fog development all TAF sites late tonight.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...Late night/early morning fog and stratus
will be possible early Saturday morning. Precip coverage should be
minimal through Monday with limited moisture, thus expect VFR
conditions to be dominant. By Tuesday a cold front will approach
the area with increasing moisture. Could see some scattered
showers and thunderstorms producing brief sub VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 105 PM Friday, no major changes needed to midday marine
forecast update as NE/E winds continue on the coastal waters and
sounds at 10 knots or less. Seas continues 3-4 feet with 11-12
second swell energy persisting.

Long Term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...Light northerly winds Saturday morning will
become NE and increase to around 15 KT by the afternoon and
perhaps up to 15 to 25 knots for a brief period Saturday Night
into Early Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Winds decrease to
around 10 KT and become more easterly by Monday. At the time the
forecast was produced, consensus model and WPC winds kept winds
easterly to southeasterly. However, models are trending for a more
aggressive frontal passage with the latest runs coming Tuesday
into Wednesday. Should this trend hold would expect winds to
become more southerly and perhaps a bit stronger.

Seas are forecast to build late Friday night and especially
Saturday into Sunday due to a combination of strengthening NE
flow and swell from well offshore Tropical Cyclone Karl with
heights peaking at 4 to 6 FT Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps
even a chance of isolated 7 foot seas. Seas should subside to 3
to 5 FT Sunday night and 2 to 4 FT Monday. Given the uncertainty
in the model forecasts for a frontal passage on Tuesday into
Wednesday, seas could be a bit higher at 3 to 5 feet.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CTC/JBM