Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 261052 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low pressure will approach from the southeast Saturday then is forecast to stall to the south Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Thursday...Increased cloud cover across the area for this morning. With Bermuda High off the southeast coast will continue to bring warmer air into the area. SW winds will be 10 mph or less. Scattered clouds expected during the afternoon along inland moving seabreeze. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures, mid to upper 80s except around 80 along the Southern OBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Another mild and dry night as high pressure dominates the area. lows will mainly be in the 60s with light SW winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday...made minor adjustments to POPs for Friday night, otherwise no significant changes with this forecast issuance. Models have continued to delay moisture increase and thus precip threat Friday night and now appears Friday evening will be dry for most of area. 00Z GFS shows good consistency with previous runs with possible subtropical low stalling off SC coast Sunday-Monday, while 00Z ECMWF has system making a Cape Fear-Cape Lookout-Cape Hatteras tour Monday-Tuesday which is a fairly significant change from previous run. Will continue previous forecast thinking and WPC progs with system stalling to south. Friday: Axis of strong NVA moving west from the Atlantic and westward push of Bermuda Ridge should keep Friday dry across the region. Models continue to indicate low level thicknesses 5-10 meters lower than today, and surface winds becoming SE. Thus expect max temps 1-2 degrees cooler, mainly 84-88 inland and around 80 beaches. Friday night through Wednesday: Per above, models keep Friday evening mainly dry and lowered POPs except for slight chance along south coast. Deep SE flow tapping subtropical moisture east of Bahamas begins to spread in late Friday night and Saturday and persists rest of period as weak mid level circulation stalls to south and gradually moves in over GA/SC. 00Z ECMWF is more of an outlier with system moving N-NE along NC coast Mon-Tue and will discounted for now. Preferred model blend will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm threat across area Sat-Wed and kept chance POPs all areas during period. No big temperature swings in this period with highs generally low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Thursday...Mid level 8K ft deck across TAF sites this morning. High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure continues over the area producing mostly clear skies and light SW winds. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are likely Friday as surface ridge lingers offshore and the mid-level ridge crests over the region. Model guidance continues to indicate surface low, possible subtropical/tropical, to form and move toward the GA/SC coast Saturday into Monday. This will result in an increase in shower activity through the period with the greatest coverage of rain likely to be Sunday afternoon into Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with convective activity. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Thursday...No changes. Pleasant boating conditions will continue through the period with high pressure off the southeast coast influencing the weather. Winds will be SW 5-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...With surface high pressure lingering offshore and the axis of the mid-level ridge in place, light se/s winds at 5-10 knots with seas around 2 feet can be expected Friday. Models continue to indicate SE winds increasing to 10-15 KT over weekend as possible subtropical low moves towards area from SE but then stalls off GA/SC coast. Persistent SE fetch will likely result in building swell with seas increasing to 4-6 FT Saturday and Saturday night, then subsiding to 3-5 FT Sunday- Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP NEAR TERM...JAC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JAC/JBM MARINE...JAC/JBM

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