Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 020221 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM SAT...ALL SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL KEEP SCHC FOR NOW. MODIFIED DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT TO ILLUSTRATE THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA...BETWEEN RDU AND PGV. CLEARLY ANY DEVIATION OF THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY THE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 70S EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST...NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE LONE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/90 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/ AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS 15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 10 PM SAT...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT THU. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD/LEP

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