Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180444 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1244 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WSW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE. TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND HIGHEST SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND... .SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70 TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. TOUGH FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT THINK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVERZEALOUS DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE/SREF. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SE STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM SAT...DROPPED SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS WITH BUOY 41025 DOWN TO 5FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT ON SAT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/HSA SHORT TERM...JAC/HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CQD/CTC MARINE...JAC/CTC/CQD/HSA

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