Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 282330 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 730 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 720 PM MON...DEEP CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF VERY LARGE HAIL OVER SRN TIER IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP POPS SRN BEACHES A WHILE LONGER THEN MAINLY DRY LATE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP WHERE IT RAINED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS AS DEWPTS MAY DROP A BIT LATE AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE CST. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S WELL INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MON...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE BRINGING LIGHT NLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING THROUGH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 80S OBX. BY FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOIST S TO SW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SEASONABLE DEWPOINT TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 720 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED DEEP INLAND AND SINCE THEY RECEIVED NO RAIN NOT EXPECTING FOG. CLOSER TO COAST DEWPTS STILL HIGH AND WILL BE SLOW TO DROP LATER PLUS THERE WAS RAIN SO ADDED LOW END MVFR VSBYS TO EWN AND OAJ. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL RAPIDLY BURNOFF TUE WITH VFR EXPECTED REST OF THE DAY WITH MCLR SKIES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 720 PM MON...FCST TRNDS LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES OTHER THAN REDUCING OR REMOVING PRECIP MENTION OVERNIGHT. PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS N-NE 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON TUE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT TUES NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY LESS THAN 15 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/LEP MARINE...RF/JAC/SK

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