Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 251458 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1058 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through early next week. A cold front will move through Wednesday. A warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Saturday...Minor update for hourly temp trends. Fair weather forecast on track with high pressure surface and aloft dominating. Thin cirrus will continue to move across from west-southwest this afternoon with some CU/SCU development as well but temps still warming into mid-upper 70s most of area. /Previous discussion/ As of 630 AM Saturday...High pressure offshore will continue extend across Eastern NC through tonight producing a dry/mild southerly flow across the region. An area of high Cirrus clouds will continue to spread over the area today while scattered to broken cumulus clouds develop with heating during the afternoon. There still should be sufficient insolation to allow temps to reach their projected highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and around 70 beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Saturday...With high pressure continuing to remain across the area expect continued dry/mild conditions to prevail tonight. Could see patchy fog and low clouds develop late as winds may decouple inland while the low levels become saturated. Forecast lows will be 50 to 55. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 am Sat...Made only minor tweaks to current forecast. Surface/upper ridge along east coast Sunday moves east slowly during the day. Deep upper trof over the mid-MS valley Sunday weakens and lifts northeast, leaving the forecast area in deep warm southwest flow, which continues through Monday night. Time sections show deeper moisture in place Tuesday as cold front approaches from the west. Made no change to PoPs, with 50% west to 30% Outer Banks. The cold front moves off the coast Tuesday night with rain chances tapering off from west to east. Front will be to the south Wednesday. Front to the south will move back north as a warm front Friday. Kept 20% chance Thursday night and 30% chance on Friday. Dry Saturday. The deep moisture will have lifted out to the northeast with a cold front to the west with little moisture to work with so will keep forecast dry. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 630 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period. Dry high pressure offshore will continue to extend over Eastern NC through tonight. Scattered to broken high based cumulus clouds should develop with heating this afternoon then dissipate this evening. Late tonight after 6Z, there appears to be a better potential for MVFR ceilings and sub VFR visibilities in patchy fog and stratus due to radiational cooling and better low level moisture profiles. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 250 am Sat...VFR through Monday night. Sub-VFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Back to dry/VFR on Wednesday. Surface winds will be from the SSE 10-15 knots Sunday, SSW around 10 knots Monday, SW 5-10 knots Tuesday and NW 5-10 knots Wednesday behind a cold front that passes through Tuesday night. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through tonight/... As of 1030 AM Saturday...no changes with update. /Previous discussion/ As of 630 AM Saturday...High pressure offshore will continue to extend over the NC waters through tonight producing a S/SW flow through the period. Current speeds of 10 to 20 kt early this morning will diminish to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon and and evening and down to 10 kt or less late tonight. 2 to 4 ft seas early this morning will subside slightly to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon and tonight. There could be a period of 5 ft seas early this morning over the outer Central waters where winds have been gusting to 20+ kts overnight. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 250 am Sat...Flow will south to southwest through Tuesday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday night, with winds veering to west Wednesday and northeast Wednesday night. Wind speeds through the period will average only 5-15 knots. Seas north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout will build to 3-5 feet Monday night and continue into Wednesday. However, from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout, seas build Tuesday to 4-6 feet and continue into Wednesday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME/JBM SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/JBM/HSA

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