Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Jose will continue moving northeast of the area today. A trough of low pressure will develop inland this afternoon and move across the area tonight and Thursday. High pressure will extend into the area from the northwest Friday through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 7 am Wednesday...No change to current zones. Dry air and subsidence will continue over area this morning as Jose moves well to the NE, then an upper level shortwave trough will approach from the W-NW this afternoon with weak lee surface troughing developing inland as well. A few model solutions indicate some possible convective development approaching SW sections this afternoon but most keep it dry and have stuck with consensus no-POP forecast. With westerly surface winds and good insolation, low level thicknesses support max temps 87-90 inland and mid 80s Outer Banks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Short wave trough energy and PWat increasing to over 1.5 inches support at least 20% POP over SW sections tonight, with TSTMs mentioned during evening. Guidance also supports increased cloud cover for mainly SW half of area, which will combine with light SW winds to keep min temps in upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 am Wed...High pressure will extend across the region from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, though models have been keeping the system well offshore of the southeast coast. Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. A surface trof will move south across the forecast area on Thursday. Best moisture will be across the southwest counties and have bumped up PoPs to chance. Dry weather then expected Thursday night through Sunday night. Have included slight chance to chance PoPs beginning Monday and continuing through Tuesday night based on the current track of Maria. However, this will change when/if the forecast track changes. Thursday will be the warmest day in the long term, with highs in the mid/upper 80s inland. Highs will be in the lower/mid 80s for the remainder. Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 60s inland, with upper 60s/lower 70s Outer Banks. The coolest night will be Sunday night, with lows on the coastal plain in the lower 60s, and mid 60s to lower 70s remainder. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /Through 06Z Thursday/... As of 7 am Wednesday...VFR expected during period with just an isolated TSTM possible for southern sections this evening. Calm winds overnight will become light westerly during the day. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 am Wed...VFR conditions will dominate most of the period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across the region. Only chance for sub- VFR in convection will be Thursday afternoon as a surface trof moves south across the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 7 am Tuesday...No change to current zones. Weakening pressure gradient in wake of Jose has allowed winds to diminish to 10-15 KT north and 5-10 KT south, but seas remain elevated at 7-10 feet northern and central waters due to lingering swell energy. Winds will become westerly 5-10 KT all waters today, then become SW 10-15 KT tonight with weak surface trough approaching from west. Wave guidance in good agreement with seas continuing to subside during period, but remaining around 6 feet outer northern and central waters through tonight. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 am Wed...High pressure will build in from the north through the period and cover the region, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, but models have been trending keeping it well offshore of the SE coast. Mariners and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. Winds generally N/NE by Thu afternoon, though winds in the far southern waters will briefly become light Thu afternoon/night as a surface trof moves south through the area. NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 10-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across the central waters through the entire period. Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from distant Hurricane Maria Thu night through the weekend across all the waters. Small craft seas likely to re-develop Fri and continue into the weekend, with double digit seas by late weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Coastal flood advisory for lingering long period NE and SE swell energy produce minor coastal flood threat along Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras around high tide near 8 AM this morning. Seas subsiding with lighter offshore flow but still seeing 7-10 feet with periods around 11 seconds, and extended High Surf advisory for northern Outer Banks until 11 AM to get through next high tide cycle. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103- 104. High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ103. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JBM/HSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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