Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 011100 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 700 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 7 AM TUE...WEAK LOW PRES ANALYZED OFF THE OBX CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS/OBX. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LIGHT NW TO W FLOW ENSUES BY AFTERNOON INLAND...WHILE NEAR THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM... SO HAVE CONFINED 20 POPS TO THE SOUND COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND FROM THE CRYSTAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...ANY ISO PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH SIMILAR SETUP...FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN GRIDS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 70-74 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FORCING IS LIMITED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE BUT CUD SET OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THRU WED NIGHT GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENT WEAK NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE, BUT MAY AGAIN SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SFC HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF INLAND THERMAL TROF OR INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF BUT STRONGER SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL HOLD HIGHEST POPS AT LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ISSUES THRU FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S COAST WED AND THU. LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC FRONT DURING THE DAY. WEEKEND AND BEYOND...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MULTILAYER RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A WEAK UPPER TROF OR UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER THE SE STATES WITH INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOST ASSOCD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. LATER MODEL RUNS SHUD HELP TO REFINE DETAILS IN THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 7 AM TUE...DENSE FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS SLOW TO ERODE OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT W TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. ONLY AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM...BEST CHANCES AROUND KEWN...BUT EVEN HERE CHANCE IS TOO SLIM TO MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 0 EXPECT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FG/BR TO DEVELOP AFER AROUND 04Z. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY ISOLD CONVECTION EACH DAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS AS LIGHT AND VAR WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. FOR TODAY...WEAK LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS WITH LIGHT N TO E WINDS ON THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN WATERS WINDS BECOME SW AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DUE TO HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOOSE GRADINNT WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON FRIDAY AND SAT WITH NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEAS REACHING 4-5 FT OUTER WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...BTC/TL MARINE...BTC/TL

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