Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 192248 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 645 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. FCST ON TRACK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA FROM NW. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 220 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TONIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA LATE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MDLS SHOW INCREASE IN HIGH LVL MOISTURE LATE BUT HARD TO SAY IF CIRRUS WILL BE MORE THAN PATCHY SO CONT PREV FCST LOW TEMPS WITH UPR 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S/LOW 50S BEACHES. ADDED PATCHY FROST INLAND HOWEVER SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED AND LIGHT SO NO ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AS OF 220 PM SUN...AFTER COLD START WL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST AND LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES SSW. SHLD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE US THIS PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTER PART. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING MID LEVEL LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MIDWEEK WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES MOVING IT UP THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS DIFFERENCE MOST LIKELY OCCURS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY...ECMWF EVENTUALLY CUTS THIS LOW OFF OVER THE GULF WHILE GFSENS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PMDEPD SUGGESTS OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS SUITE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OFF THE COAST WITH DRY WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 7H SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS. 5H LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE COAST. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR 70 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/... AS OF 1220 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLR SKIES THRU LATE TONIGHT THEN WILL SEE SOME SCT TO BKN HIGH CLDS THRU MON. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS LATE AND CANT RULE OUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG BUT CVRG AND DURATION LIKELY VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 100 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/... AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS STILL 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS AND WILL LET SCA CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 220 PM SUN...NNW WINDS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W...BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHLD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND WILL CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING. SEAS WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE BY MON MORN. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE CST MON LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 221 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL KEEPS WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TURNING FLOW TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WEDNESDAY KEEP WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BRINGING WIND TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...RF/CGG MARINE...RF/CGG/JBM

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