Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 211552 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO 64 KT. NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR 1 PM UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR S. SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S. LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY. NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM

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