Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 161938 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 238 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area tonight and Friday. The high will move offshore Saturday and a strong cold front will move through early Sunday. High pressure will be over the area early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Thursday...High pressure will build over the area through Friday producing clear skies. Cold advection will increase tonight into Friday which will lead to cooler temps with lows tonight ranging from the mid 30s inland to the mid 40s beaches. Highs Friday will be 55 to 60 inland and low to mid 50s coast. North winds will increase tonight especially along the coast, then gradually subside Friday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Thursday...The high will crest over the area Friday night then move offshore Saturday with SW return flow developing. This will lead to warm highs around 70 degrees Saturday after chilly morning lows in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will become gusty Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Thursday...Dry weather is expected for most if not all of the extended period as high pressure prevails across the region. A cold front with limited moisture could cross the area Tuesday night. Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, moisture is forecast to stream NE from the Gulf of Mexico along a front stalled to the SE of NC. There are model differences on how much if any of this will make into Eastern NC with best chances along the coast. Saturday Night and Sunday...A strong cold front is expected to cross Eastern NC Sunday morning, with rain showers breaking out ahead of it inland after midnight Saturday night, and lasting through Sunday morning immediate coast. There is finally good agreement between the different forecast models, pushing the front off the coast early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts are forecast to be light mainly 0.10" or less in most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the 50s, as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection. Highs on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising a few degrees from the morning lows behind the cold front. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west Monday and then off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs Monday will range from the low to mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach the low 60s. Low temps will be at or below freezing inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast. Some frost will be possible for parts of coastal counties where the growing season is still ongoing, with the best chances on Tuesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday...An offshore trough, will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and may bring showers to coastal sections of Eastern NC both days. Have slight chance PoPs east of HWY 17. High temps will be in the low 60s again, with low temps Wednesday morning ranging from the low 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term /Through 18Z Friday/... As of 235 PM Thursday...High pressure over the area through Friday will produce clear skies and VFR conditions. Cold advection tonight will lead to good low level mixing with no threat of fog. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 235 PM Thursday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Then a strong cold front will enter the airspace, and could produce a period of sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions then return through Tuesday as high pressure builds back over the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Friday/... As of 855 PM Thursday...Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the near shore waters and Sounds from this evening into Friday due to cold advection induced northerly flow 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts. Seas will build to 5 to 8 ft tonight then subside below 6 ft late Friday as winds diminish to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Winds will be light and variable Friday night, and then begin out of the SSW 10-15 kts Saturday morning. Winds strengthen to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, and then 25-30 Saturday night. Could reach low end Gales late Sat night into early Sunday as a strong cold front crosses the waters. Winds will shift to the NW Sunday morning and diminish to 15-20 kts in the afternoon and evening behind the front. Winds are then forecast to be 15 kt or less late Sunday night into Tuesday. Seas will initially be 2-3 ft across the coastal waters Saturday morning, before building Saturday afternoon to 4-7 ft, and then 8-12 ft Saturday night and Sunday morning. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening, then subside to 2-4 ft Monday, then 2-3 ft Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ130-131-135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...JME/SGK AVIATION...JME/SGK MARINE...JME/SGK

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