Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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406 FXUS62 KMHX 210734 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area today and Friday. Inland trough/offshore high pressure pattern will return Saturday and persist into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 3 AM Thu...Latest sfc analysis shows 1023mb high pressure centered over western PA and WV this morning, with weak cold front lingering across northern SC and SE NC. Surface high will continue to build over the area today as strong upper ridge centered over the central US gradually builds eastward. Areas of fog and stratus will likely develop early this morning, with clear skies and calm winds, with best chances along and west of Highway 17. Only significant change to previous forecast was to add isolated shower/tstm mention this afternoon. Some of the global and high res models show very isolated activity developing from near the Albemarle Sound down towards the southern coast. Instability will be more limited than past several days with dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 60s, but weak instability combined with trough pushing off the east coast, could still be enough to support isolated weak convection. Low level thickness values and 850mb temps 15-16C support highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Thu...Quiet night expected with high pressure in place. Diurnal cu should dissipate with loss of heating with skies becoming mostly clear. Could see some areas of fog develop again with mostly clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Thursday...Continued minimal changes to the extended forecast. A large ridge will build east into the region with hot temperatures and fairly dry conditions Friday and Saturday, before an increased of moisture and precipitation returns Sunday into early next week. Friday through Saturday night...A strong upper level ridge will build east from the southern Plains with hot and relatively dry conditions through late Saturday. Strong subsidence should keep precip to a minimum and will continue to forecast mostly dry conditions through the period. Some guidance pushes weak shortwave energy across the area late Saturday which when combined with a hot and unstable airmass, may lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. For this reason, have added a small slight chance POP for possible sea-breeze development from Craven/Pamlico county west to Duplin/Lenoir counties. With upper heights building and the low-level flow becoming SW with a strong Bermuda surface ridge building offshore, high temps are expected in the low to mid 90s Friday and a few degrees warmer on Saturday. Dewpoints also return to the mid 70s by Saturday which may produce heat index values above 105 degrees during the afternoon, possibly warranting Heat Advisories. Will continue to highlight heat potential in HWO at this time. Sunday through Wednesday...The upper ridge gradually breaks down Sunday into early next week, allowing more upper level energy to dive south across the region. Coupled with a hot, unstable airmass, the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns by Sunday and will increase close to climatology by Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Sunday will be the hottest day with highs in the mid/upper 90s well inland with heat index values around 105-109 degrees, then temps expected to drop back to the low to mid 90s by the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short term /through Tonight/... As of 1 AM Thu...VFR conditions currently with calm winds and few/scattered mid clouds. Main forecast challenge overnight will be the potential for IFR/LIFR fog and stratus development. Will trend towards persistence and the NARRE which show best chances at ISO/OAJ/PGV between 09-12z. Any fog and stratus that develops should lift between 12-14z this morning, with VFR conditions returning under light and variable winds. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Strong mid-level ridging will build east across the region through Saturday with VFR conditions and minimal shower activity prevailing. The upper ridge breaks down on Sunday and into Monday with a return of afternoon and evening convection and brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Thu...Latest obs show light and variable winds across the waters this morning, though pred NE 5-10 knots, with seas 2-3 feet. Light winds at or below 10 knots expected through the period NE winds will gradually veer today ...becoming more W/NW by early Friday morning. Increasing SE swell energy today will keep seas at 2-3 feet...and could see some 4 foot seas develop on the outer central and southern waters by late this morning. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...High pressure strengthening offshore through the weekend into early next week. Southerly winds return Friday 10 kts or less, becoming SW around 10-15 KT Friday night through Monday. Winds could become slightly stronger, to around 20 KT, during the late afternoon and evening hours each day, when the pressure gradient between the Piedmont thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore are strongest. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft through the period. Local SWAN/NWPS and 00Z Wavewatch are in good agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing about a foot underdone for the central/southern waters in the extended period, due to its GFS-based winds about 5 kt below our forecast winds.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...SK/DAG AVIATION...CQD/DAG MARINE...CQD/DAG

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