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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will continue moving northeast of the area
today. A trough of low pressure will develop inland this
afternoon and move across the area tonight and Thursday. High
pressure will extend into the area from the northwest Friday
through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to track
between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 7 am Wednesday...No change to current zones. Dry air and
subsidence will continue over area this morning as Jose moves
well to the NE, then an upper level shortwave trough will
approach from the W-NW this afternoon with weak lee surface
troughing developing inland as well. A few model solutions
indicate some possible convective development approaching SW
sections this afternoon but most keep it dry and have stuck with
consensus no-POP forecast. With westerly surface winds and good
insolation, low level thicknesses support max temps 87-90
inland and mid 80s Outer Banks.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Short wave trough energy and PWat
increasing to over 1.5 inches support at least 20% POP over SW
sections tonight, with TSTMs mentioned during evening. Guidance
also supports increased cloud cover for mainly SW half of area,
which will combine with light SW winds to keep min temps in
upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 am Wed...High pressure will extend across the region
from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor
Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track
of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, though
models have been keeping the system well offshore of the
southeast coast. Eastern NC residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

A surface trof will move south across the forecast area on
Thursday. Best moisture will be across the southwest counties
and have bumped up PoPs to chance. Dry weather then expected
Thursday night through Sunday night. Have included slight chance
to chance PoPs beginning Monday and continuing through Tuesday
night based on the current track of Maria. However, this will
change when/if the forecast track changes. Thursday will be the
warmest day in the long term, with highs in the mid/upper 80s
inland. Highs will be in the lower/mid 80s for the remainder.
Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 60s inland, with upper
60s/lower 70s Outer Banks. The coolest night will be Sunday
night, with lows on the coastal plain in the lower 60s, and
mid 60s to lower 70s remainder.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /Through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 7 am Wednesday...VFR expected during period with just an
isolated TSTM possible for southern sections this evening. Calm
winds overnight will become light westerly during the day.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 am Wed...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Only chance for sub- VFR in convection will be
Thursday afternoon as a surface trof moves south across the
area.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 am Tuesday...No change to current zones. Weakening
pressure gradient in wake of Jose has allowed winds to diminish
to 10-15 KT north and 5-10 KT south, but seas remain elevated at
7-10 feet northern and central waters due to lingering swell
energy. Winds will become westerly 5-10 KT all waters today,
then become SW 10-15 KT tonight with weak surface trough
approaching from west.

Wave guidance in good agreement with seas continuing to subside
during period, but remaining around 6 feet outer northern and
central waters through tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 am Wed...High pressure will build in from the north
through the period and cover the region, while we continue to
monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding
the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week,
but models have been trending keeping it well offshore of the SE
coast. Mariners and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC.

Winds generally N/NE by Thu afternoon, though winds in the far
southern waters will briefly become light Thu afternoon/night as
a surface trof moves south through the area. NE winds 5-10 kt
Fri increasing to 10-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun. NWPS and
Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across
the central waters through the entire period. Will likely start
seeing long period southeast swell build from distant Hurricane
Maria Thu night through the weekend across all the waters.
Small craft seas likely to re-develop Fri and continue into the
weekend, with double digit seas by late weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Coastal flood advisory for lingering
long period NE and SE swell energy produce minor coastal flood
threat along Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras around high tide
near 8 AM this morning. Seas subsiding with lighter offshore
flow but still seeing 7-10 feet with periods around 11 seconds,
and extended High Surf advisory for northern Outer Banks until
11 AM to get through next high tide cycle.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ103.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX