Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 300517 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 117 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY. /WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS. /THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ090>095-098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/JBM/LEP MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/LEP

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