Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 020156 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 956 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. A SVR THUNDERSTORM IN RAHS AREA THIS EVENING HAS SINCE FALLEN APART WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. FEEL THIS WILL LIKELY ERODE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WAS TEMPTED TO PUT AN ISO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING AT A FASTER CLIP ACROSS NC. BUT WITH NO FORCING OTHER THAN THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS START TO BECOME CALM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE HAVE FILTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH IS SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. GIVEN SUCH A STEADY DECLINE...WAS ABOUT TO REDUCE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MORE. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY NOTED A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON OUR DOORSTEP. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ALSO INDICATING THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS. SO EXPECT A QUITE NIGHT OVERALL WITH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 70 FURTHER INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING WITH SFC HEATING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST...AND BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...LONG TERM PORTION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS VORT CENTERS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAKING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS DIFFICULT. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE A LITTLE BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 7 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS ARE MIGRATING TOWARD EASTERN NC. EXPECT SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BKN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE MORNING WITH CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND THIS TIME. VCSH/VCTS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY... DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. SEAS 2 TO 5 FEET WITH SSW WIND 10-15KT. THE SW WINDS WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER THU AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS REMAINING BLO 6 FT UNTIL LATER THU AFTERNOON. WILL DROP THE CURRENT SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS, AND POST ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO 6 FT OVER OUTER WATERS SOUTH OFF CAPE LOOKOUT BY LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING...AND THAT MAINLY IN THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WATERS. SEAS 3-6 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 2-4 FEET NORTH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...LEP SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...HSA/LEP MARINE...BTC/HSA/LEP

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