Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200811 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 411 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and humid conditions across the region. A weak cold front will approach the region early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 345 AM Thurs...Mostly clear and calm conditions are present across the region, and have allowed temps to cool into the upper 60s and low 70s. Some intermittent fog has developed near the Croatan Forest including New Bern and Havelock, and is expected to persist through sunrise, and also develop further to the southwest along the coast into Onslow and Duplin counties. Visibility will generally drop to between 3-5 miles, but could become locally denser. Lows this morning will reach the upper 60s and low 70s inland, and the mid 70s along the coast. Upper level low finally moves out of the region today, and heights begin to build. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm quickly later this morning, and into the low 90s this afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s especially across the HWY 17 corridor. As the sea breeze develops and pushes inland, a few showers could develop, and have a slight chance PoP along the typical seabreeze zone.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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As of 400 AM Thurs...Any isolated shower activity will quickly die after sunset, and conditions will be dry overnight. Low temps will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the low 70s inland and the mid/upper 70s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday...No significant changes with this forecast issuance as models remain in good agreement and continuity. Main issue during period will be the potential for an extended period of dangerous heat and humidity for the area with highs well into the 90s and Heat Index values of 105+ degrees from Friday through the weekend as an upper ridge extends east into the area. Chances for rain will also be minimal during this period with very little in the way of measurable precipitation being indicated in the models from Thursday through the weekend. Rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are expected by early next week as the eastern US upper trough amplifies and a weak cold front approaches the area. Friday through Sunday...00Z models remain in decent agreement with extending the west-central upper ridge eastward while another upper ridge moves into the western Atlantic. This pattern will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below normal convective coverage through the weekend. What activity there is should be diurnally driven in the afternoon and early evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible upstream MCS development and possible effects on this area. SPC has NE NC in marginal severe risk for Sat-Sat due to this possibility but guidance currently keeps precip threat north of Albemarle Sound, thus will continue advertising no higher than a 20 pop through the weekend, mainly across interior zones. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level thicknesses 1425-1430 meters Friday and around 1435-1440 meters Sat-Sun. This will support max temps easily reaching the mid 90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s, critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are likely from Friday through Sunday. Forecast max temps will generally be at least 5 degrees below record highs at most sites during period, with the exception of KHSE and KNCA where forecast is within 3 degrees of records mainly Sat-Sun. See Climate section below for details. Monday through Wednesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday, and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat developing. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term /Through Thursday Night/... As of 405 AM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected for most of the period. The exception will be some MVFR fog that will develop later this morning. Have 5 miles visibility for KPGV and KISO, and 3 miles for KEWN and KOAJ where rainfall earlier in the day has increased low level moisture. There could be some brief IFR conditions at these terminals also. VFR conditions will return shortly after sunrise, a dry day expected with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR expected to prevail most of the period with return of offshore high/inland trough pattern. Friday and Sat looking dry with just a very small chance (20%) of an afternoon or evening storm. There will also be occasional brief sub- VFR conditions during the early morning hours with the threat for low stratus and/or fog.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Thursday/... As of 405 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions are expected through the short term. Winds are expected to be SW 5-10 kts through tonight when winds increase to 10-15 kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft today and then increase to 2-4 ft late tonight. Continue to observe long period swell 2 ft every 15-17 seconds, likely from a very distant low pressure system. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. The flow is expected to remain SW 10 to 15 kt across the waters through Friday as the surface pressure pattern remains static with Atlantic high pressure and a weak inland trough of low pressure influencing the weather through the period. Winds speeds are forecast to increase to 10 to 20 kt on the weekend as the gradient slightly increases with thermal trough inland amplifying. Seas are expected to run mostly 2-3 ft through Friday then increase to 3-4 ft with some 5 footers possible over the outer waters Saturday. Some marginal SCA conditions may develop Sunday into Monday especially central and southern waters as gradient further increases with approaching front to the NW.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record Max Temps for 07/21 (Fri) Location Temp/Year New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 94/1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1987 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 106/1926 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 100/1987 (KNCA AWOS) Record Max Temps for 07/22 (Sat) Location Temp/Year New Bern 106/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/1987 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/2011 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 100/1987 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 105/1932 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/2011 (KNCA AWOS) Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun) Location Temp/Year New Bern 100/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/1972 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 103/1932 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1987 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 103/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1995 (KNCA AWOS) Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon) Location Temp/Year New Bern 99/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 90/2016 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/2011 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1999 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1995 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGK NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SGK MARINE...JBM/SGK CLIMATE...MHX

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