Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 230854 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 354 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARRIVING THIS MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME STEADY BY EARLY AFTERNOON PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RUC MODELS. TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH COASTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH 61 DEGREES AT CAPE LOOKOUT BUT 41 IN MOREHEAD CITY. AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 30S SHOULD RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF AS DEWPOINT RECOVERY WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW- LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING AND S/SE WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...WILL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND RUNNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. AS A STRONG WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SE/ S WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...RSB/CTC MARINE...RSB/CTC

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