Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260103 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 803 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN NC FROM NEAR NAGS HEAD SOUTHWEST TO JACKSONVILLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT RANGES FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.40 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. KOAJ REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH IFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD FRONTAL INVERSION AFTER AROUND 03Z TONIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED IFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 06Z WITH A TEMP GROUP FROM 03 TO 06Z FOR TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM DIAMOND SHOALS TO OFF ONSLOW BAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...DAG/BM MARINE...CGG/DAG/BM

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