


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --147 FXUS62 KMHX 070616 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 216 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to dissipate as it lifts north of the area today. A series of mid level systems will push across the area bringing periods of unsettled weather through the rest of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Monday... Key Messages - Typical summertime conditions to return in the wake of TD Chantal As of early this morning, Tropical Depression Chantal was located north of the Raleigh metro, and was lifting NE towards the NC/VA state line. SE of Chantal, an area of low-mid level convergence will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Atlantic coastal waters north through the OBX early this morning. The MHX VWP and RAP guidance show a relatively narrow 30-35kt LLJ will be over the area early this morning, and the morning convection may be able to mix some of those stronger winds to the surface. It looks like the greatest risk will remain offshore, though. Later today, modest subsidence in the wake of Chantal, plus an area of mid-level drying should lead to a lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms compared to the past couple of days. The main forcing mechanism looks to be the seabreeze, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible. The above- mentioned subsidence should tend to limit the risk of deeper convection, but with modest instability and PWATs around 2", a strong thunderstorm with gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Intense rainfall rates and minor flooding will be possible as well.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Monday... The risk of convection should shift offshore as is common this time of year, with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 315 PM Sun... Key Messages - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible this week Weak ridging builds across the area Tuesday but could see isolated to widely scattered showers bringing locally heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening. SPC has western portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe storms mainly for damaging wind gusts with moderate instability, however bulk shear will be meager. A series of shortwave trough will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled weather across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts. The warmest temps of the long term look to be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low 90s inland from the coast and heat index values around 100-105, otherwise temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/... As of 200 AM Monday... Key Messages - IFR/MVFR conditions possible through early Monday morning - Lower risk of TSRA on Monday - Gusty southwest winds Monday (20-25kt) Tropical Depression Chantal, currently located just south of the VA/NC state line, will lift NE into Virginia on Monday. As it moves away from ENC, an area of mid-level drying and modest subsidence should keep the risk of SHRA and TSRA lower on Monday compared to the past couple of days. In light of this, I`ve removed all mention of precip for the TAFs for now. Prior to the drier air moving in, there will continue to be bands of low CIGs pivoting through the area, keeping a risk of MVFR/IFR conditions at play through at least early Monday morning. I expect predominantly MVFR CIGs, but guidance suggests at least a modest risk of IFR CIGs, and trends in obs and satellite will be monitored for possible amendments through the night. By mid to late morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide. Sub VFR conditions will be possible with any SHRA or TSRA that develops today. Regarding winds through Monday, it looks like there will be enough of a residual gradient on the southern periphery of Chantal to maintain a risk of gusty SW winds, especially through mid-afternoon Monday. Lighter winds are then expected by Monday evening. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 4 PM Sun...A series of mid- level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... As of 4 PM Saturday... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 4 PM Sun...TD Chantal will lift north across central NC tonight, then accelerate north of the area on Monday. S to SE winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt will continue tonight, then veer to SW on Monday. Seas wil continue around 5-8 ft south of Hatteras and 4-6 ft north through this evening, then gradually subside to 3-5 ft on Monday. Continue with SCA for all but the Albemarle sound and the rivers but could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt here but not frequent enough to warrant an SCA at this time. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 4 PM Sun...High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic next week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft currently forecast during the long term period. However, some guidance is suggesting low end SCA could occur at times during the middle of next week, especially in gusts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135-150- 152-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ158.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...CEB