Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 010741 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 341 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER EASTERN NC...WITH WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN GA/SOUTHERN SC. THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EASTERN NC LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MUCH WARMER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 70S/LOW 80S INLAND. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO POPS, WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SC CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S -4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COMBINATION OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF IFR PERIODS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW E/NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH SEAS 4-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND 2-4FT SOUTH. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WITH PERSISTENT NE FETCH OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...THOUGH COULD SEE STILL SEE SOME 5FT SEAS...POSSIBLY UP TO 6FT NEAR 41025 WITH SLY FLOW AND WARMER WATER TEMPS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CQD/CTC MARINE...CQD/CTC

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