-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 172314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM THU...LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS SLIGHTLY TO NR 40 WELL
INLAND AND MID TO UPR 40S COAST...OTRW INIT FOR CURRENT CONDS. M
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM LOWER 40S COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. MODELS SHOW
THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AND EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...DEEP TROF MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST REGION
WILL CUT OFF THEN MOVE THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS WILL SET UP A MAINLY CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NC AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
AND DEEP MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER CUTOFF LOW. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS (WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
PRECIP AREA) LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD
PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED AS DETAILS CAN BE FURTHER DEFINED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 50S COAST
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OR RISING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT
LENDS ITSELF TO A CLOUDY AND POTENTIAL WET SUNDAY PARTICULARLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS
FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN
DEFERENCE TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION BUT GUT FEELING IS THAT CLOUDIER
COOLER AND WETTER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE OVERALL MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL TRENDS. AGAIN FORECAST DETAILS CAN BE ADJUSTED AS
LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO MORE ALIGNMENT.

THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF RAINFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT
IF THE WETTER MODELS SOLUTIONS HOLD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS CUD EXCEED AN
INCH OR MORE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
AT MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MOIST INFLOW GIVEN MID LEVEL WNW
FLOW. MIDWEEK WEATHER LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & FRI/
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY AROUND 5
KFT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OAJ AND EWN...WITH ISO AND PGV REMAINING DRY. NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE DAY REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...AS RAIN SPREADS NE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESPCLY SRN TIER WHERE
BEST CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED. AS LOW PRES DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TO
THE SE SUNDAY, VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VFR
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & FRI/
AS OF 700 PM THU...MAIN CHANGE TO EXTEND SCA FOR ALBEMARLE AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER THROUGH THIS EVE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES IN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FRI NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS NEAR THE CST. AS
LOW PRES SLIDES ENE TO THE S SAT INTO SUN EXPECT THE GUSTY NNE
WINDS TO CONT POSS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS OUTER WATERS. THE NE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MON AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES WEAKENS AS IT BUILDS TOWARD CST. THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW
WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS CONT INTO MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8 TO 12 FEET OVER
THE OUTER WATERS LATE SAT THRU SUNDAY. THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO
6 FT MON NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/HSA
MARINE...JAC/BTC/HSA