Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 231705 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 105 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area this afternoon and then dissipate tonight. A back door cold front will push through the area early Sunday, with high pressure building in from the north late Sunday into Monday. Another cold front may move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by high pressure the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 105 PM Friday, isolated showers have developed along the immediate coast along the sea breeze as of 1 pm. Latest 15-minute HRRR guidance shows the bulk of the precipitation remaining near the coast this afternoon as upper level trough slowly starts to move out. Deep moisture in the low-levels keep low overcast in place thus far today, but may see some thinning during the mid- late afternoon and did not adjust maximum temperatures at this time. Lowered PoPs for inland areas, but kept high chance near the coast through early evening. Given the high precipitable water values, some heavy downpours are likely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday...models in good agreement that upper trough will move east of area overnight in response to upper trough moving through NE US. Deeper moisture axis will shift offshore as well with surface low dissipating, and will continue previous forecast of only slight chance POPs along coast this evening and then offshore overnight. Light winds and clearing skies will lead to patchy fog threat inland late, and will allow temps to drop into mid 60s inland and lower 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 AM Friday...We will have a drying trend in the first part of the extended forecast. A back door cold front with limited moisture will move through Eastern NC by early Sunday. High pressure will build into the area Sunday and persist into Monday bringing pleasant and seasonable weather. However, both the GFS and latest ECMWF are more bullish on bringing another cold front into the area that will create scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Saturday into Monday...Most of the moisture associated with the remnant Julia and upper low will be pushed to our south on Saturday. A backdoor cold front moves through the area by early Sunday bringing cooler air into the area, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Kept things dry on Saturday and with limited moisture. Models suggest enough moisture associated with the backdoor front to eek out a widely scattered to isolated shower, so carried 20 percent PoPs across the area on Sunday. Monday...We will have a brief transition day on Monday as the surface high behind the backdoor front slides off the coast. Could still see a widely scattered to isolated shower or thunderstorm on Monday. Tuesday through Wednesday...The big model change in the forecast is to be more progressive with an approaching from on Tuesday that will push high pressure off the coast faster than previously forecast. As a result made a significant increase in the chance of a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday through Wednesday with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Should this model trend hold could expect higher chance PoPs to be added to the forecast somewhere in this time period with future updates. Temperatures will be seasonal during this time period, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s inland to lower 70s on the coast. Thursday through Friday...A potent upper low will pass to our north on Thursday however, with a surface high and decreased moisture moving into the area opted to keep the forecast dry on Thursday. Dry and cooler weather will continue into Friday. On Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 70s and mostly mid 70s across the entire area on Friday. Lows could dip into the 50s with a true taste of fall during the period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through 12Z Saturday/... As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs will gradually lift with heating to MVFR by 15Z and VFR by 17Z. Scattered shower/isolated tstm threat will remain mainly along coast this morning, then shift inland during afternoon. Upper level trough will begin to shift east of area tonight, resulting in gradual clearing this evening and precip threat moving off coast. Light winds, mostly clear skies and lingering low level moisture will likely lead to IFR fog development all TAF sites late tonight. Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/... As of 430 AM Friday...Late night/early morning fog and stratus will be possible early Saturday morning. Precip coverage should be minimal through Monday with limited moisture, thus expect VFR conditions to be dominant. By Tuesday a cold front will approach the area with increasing moisture. Could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms producing brief sub VFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 105 PM Friday, no major changes needed to midday marine forecast update as NE/E winds continue on the coastal waters and sounds at 10 knots or less. Seas continues 3-4 feet with 11-12 second swell energy persisting. Long Term /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Friday...Light northerly winds Saturday morning will become NE and increase to around 15 KT by the afternoon and perhaps up to 15 to 25 knots for a brief period Saturday Night into Early Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Winds decrease to around 10 KT and become more easterly by Monday. At the time the forecast was produced, consensus model and WPC winds kept winds easterly to southeasterly. However, models are trending for a more aggressive frontal passage with the latest runs coming Tuesday into Wednesday. Should this trend hold would expect winds to become more southerly and perhaps a bit stronger. Seas are forecast to build late Friday night and especially Saturday into Sunday due to a combination of strengthening NE flow and swell from well offshore Tropical Cyclone Karl with heights peaking at 4 to 6 FT Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps even a chance of isolated 7 foot seas. Seas should subside to 3 to 5 FT Sunday night and 2 to 4 FT Monday. Given the uncertainty in the model forecasts for a frontal passage on Tuesday into Wednesday, seas could be a bit higher at 3 to 5 feet.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...RSB/JBM MARINE...RSB/CTC/JBM

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