Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 192356 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 656 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cool front will move through the region Friday. A strong area of low pressure and frontal system will impact the area Sunday through Monday. High pressure will then build into the area from the south through mid week. A cold front will move through late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 7 PM Thu...Cloudiness will steadily increase from the west tonight as surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and some mid- level shortwave energy approaches eastern NC from the southwest. Forecast soundings continue to indicate lower levels not moistening up until after sunrise and any precip should hold off until after 12z on Friday morning and will continue the dry fcst. Lows tonight in the low/mid 40s may occur early before leveling off or perhaps rising a bit as the clouds thicken late tonight. Current zones in good shape. No changes needed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thu... Friday...19/12Z global model suite and high res models continue to indicate very light and sct showers at best on Friday. Have therefore decreased pops further to low chc sct with iso mention cyrstal coast as dry low levels will limit coverage of precip. It appears only several hundredths to a tenth of an inch at best will fall on Friday as the system is very quick moving and should be exiting by late in the day. Warmer temps expected per low lvl thicknesses approaching 1370M with mid/upr 60s most areas with low 60s OBX. Friday Night...Partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds behind exiting weak front and shortwave. Warm and humid night expected with lows in the 50s. TD`s will also be high, and these conditions will lead to a decent threat of fog across the mainland zones, especially areas that received any rainfall. Will therefore introduce patchy fg to grids, possibly becoming dense. Will let later shifts further evaluate dense fog potential. Saturday...Any fg will burn off after sunrise Sat. Inherited increasing pop trend still looks on target with approaching deep shortwave energy and increasing deep SW flow. Best chances for rain showers will be the southeastern half of the FA. Have added slgt chc thunder to grids in the afternoon as some weak instability is advected into E NC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... We will begin a rather unsettled period Saturday afternoon into early next week. A upper level trof over the desert southwest Saturday will progress into a cut off low that will move through the Deep South Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this low a deep feed of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico will produce two rounds of rain for us first Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening, then again Sunday. Finally the cut off low mentioned above moves through Sunday night into Monday with one final round of steadier rain before we taper off to showers through early Tuesday as the low moves east. GEFS PWATS approach 2 standard deviations above normal as early as Saturday afternoon and continue near that number through Sunday evening. Other signals that point to periods of heavy rain include a strong low level jet, tall skinny cape, and warm cloud depths above 10,000 feet. Luckily it appears the heaviest periods of rain will come in waves, with drying in the mid levels in between which will help to give us lulls in activity. We continue to mention thunder through the period with lifted indices still negative and a few hundred j/kg of CAPE. We have a dynamic wind profile with winds veering with height, so the amount of instability will have to be watched with regards to the potential for stronger storms. An early shower is possible Tuesday otherwise high pressure controls our weather again providing us with a dry stretch of weather through Thursday. Our next shot at rain holds off until the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term /through 18z Fri/... As of 7 PM Thursday...VFR expected through the TAF period. As moisture increases ahead of next system, expect high clouds to thicken and lower after midnight with some low end VFR stratus developing by around sunrise Friday. There could be brief periods of MVFR stratus during the day Friday though not enough confidence to indicate in the TAF`s right now. Sct to isolated showers on Friday will be few and far between and will leave mention of even a VCSH out of the forecast at this time. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 250 AM Thursday...Patchy dense fog is possible Friday night into early Saturday morning. The main aviation concern would be from Saturday afternoon through early Monday with at least widespread MVFR restrictions likely in rain, with local IFR possible. In addition strong winds off the surface with a quick change in wind direction may produce LLWS or at the very least, bumpy flying conditions during the period.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Friday/... As of 7 PM Thursday...Seas currently 3 to 5 ft northern waters with 2 to 4 ft south. As axis of surface high pressure settles over the coast tonight, winds become light at generally 10 knots or less from the NE or E. Per latest local SWAN/NWPS model, seas will be in the 2-3 feet range tonight into Friday. Winds will veer further and become southerly Friday afternoon ahead of quick moving weak cold front that will pass through by early Friday evening. Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/... As of 255 AM Thursday...Southeast winds Friday veer into the northwest Saturday. Waves generally 2 to 5 feet through the period. A strong area of low pressure will approach the waters by late Sunday night. Southwest to south winds will increase to above 20 knots by Sunday and continue through Monday. Waves of 10 feet or more are possible. Small craft advisories will likely be needed starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...HSA/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...HSA/TL/EH MARINE...HSA/TL/EH

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