Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 231736 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 136 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST IS RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. OTHERWISE A SUNNY AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONTD DRY CONDS AND A LIGHT ELY FLOW. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST GDNC. LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES LATE IN PERIOD WITH MODELS NOW INDICATING THAT SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN ATLC RATHER THAN MORE-TYPICAL BERMUDA TYPE PATTERN...AND THAT HIGH WILL BE UNDERCUT BY INVERTED TROFFING ASSCTD WITH UPR LOW APPROACHING FROM E-SE THU-FRI. MAIN RESULT WILL BE THAT FLOW ALONG COAST WED-FRI WILL BE MORE SE-S THAN S-SW AND MAY EVEN BECOME E-NE IF INVERTED TROFFING APPROACHES CLOSER TO COAST. TEMPS WILL WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY BRIEF GROUND FOG...WHICH WAS OBSERVED AT ALL BUT KOAJ LAST NIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE LONG-LASTING OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL SUB-VFR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS PSBL EACH DAY. LIGHT SE WINDS SUNDAY-MONDAY...BECOMING MORE SRLY TUE-WED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...SURGE BEHIND DRY COLD FRONT WORKINGS ITS WAY SOUTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING PERIOD...MAINLY FOR MORE SE-S WIND DIRECTION TUE-WED THAN S-SW...BUT SPEEDS STILL MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS STILL MAINLY AROUND 2 FT SUN- MON...BUT PERSISTENT SE-S WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...CTC/JBM MARINE...JAC/CTC/JBM

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