Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 311331 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 931 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERM. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING AT THE SFC...BRING WARM AND MOIST S/SW FLOW. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE COINCIDING WITH WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...BUT CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500J WITH LI -4. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT THE MAIN FORCING MECH. TEMPS CONT WARM NEAR 90 INLAND AND MID 80S ON THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN LIGHT S/SW FLOW. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN EARLY THEN MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS GRAZE THE COAST IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOC WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NC LATE MON AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME AS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE 10-30% RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT BETTER CHANCES LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE. MODEL ALSO DEPICTING A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING WED NIGHT ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN HIGHEST THICKNESSES WILL BE PRESENT. SLIGHT COOLING THURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... WITH MULTILAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL, EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS BNDRY LAYER MIXING INCREASES WITH SURFACE HEATING. MAY AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF SHORT DURATION MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY FOR NOW. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUN...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES MON AND LATE WED THROUGH THURS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOYS OBS HAVE LIGHT S WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3FT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL TROF DEVELOPING INLAND, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING TO MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS THRU TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT FEET THRU TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS MON INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT INTO EARLY WED BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT BY THURS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC/BM LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...BTC/SK MARINE...BTC/SK/BM

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