Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 250950 AAA AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 550 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move off the coast this morning. High pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will drop in from the north Saturday night and become stationary through Tuesday morning, when it will move off the coast. Another front will move in Wednesday and become stationary across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 550 am Thu...Last of showers will affect the Outer Banks over the next few hours with dry conditions across the rest of the forecast area. Will go dry all areas from 12-18Z and made no change to afternoon PoPs. Updated zones out shortly. Prev disc...Cold front is just west of the coastal plain and will move off the coast this morning. Could still be enough forcing and instability to trigger scattered showers and storms this afternoon. SPC keeps the region in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, though parameters looks less impressive than Wed with drier air in place. Looks colder aloft, -15C at 500mb with freezing levels around 10 kft. Still cannot rule out an isolated strong storm developing with gusty winds and hail. Breezy gradient winds develop in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30 mph. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 am Thu...Surface/upper low along New England coast lifts northeast with surface ridge building into the forecast area from the southeast with cooler/drier air. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s along the coastal plain to mid/upper 60s south coast and Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 am Thu...Friday will be a nice end to the week with a return to drier weather with high pressure in control. With a good amount of sunshine it will be much warmer than the past few days with highs into the 80s. We turn hot this weekend as 850 MB temps climb into the upper teens, which wil result in highs near 90 inland both days. In fact the 0Z GFS shows 850 temps spiking to around +21/22C at 18Z Sunday, which if it verifies will easily push highs into the lower 90s inland. A disturbance in the northwest flow aloft Saturday night into Sunday is still enough for a 30% to 50% chance of storms, with the highest chances across the far north and northwest. Monday into most of next week looks unsettled as a cold front moves into our area and stalls out. Right now the best shot at showers/storms would be Monday night into Tuesday. Enough run to run differences have existed with the movement of this front so we really can`t rule out shower chances as early as Monday. Late in the week the boundary is close enough across the southern part of our area to maintain at least a 30% chance each day. With clouds and slightly cooler temps aloft, highs will mainly be in the 80s. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 330 am Thu...Mostly MVFR ceilings at the 4 area terminals at present. After a cold front pushes off the coast around 12Z, ceilings expected to lift to VFR and continue through the day. Forecasting mainly scattered clouds around 5 kft today. Scattered showers and storms forecast this afternoon, a few of which could be severe with gusty winds and hail. Winds will be southwest and gusty, with gusts 20-30 kts possible. Any convection will end early this evening with skies becoming clear late this evening. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kts this evening and continue overnight. Long Term /Fri through Mon/ As of 330 am Thu...VFR Friday and Saturday. Brief Sub VFR conditions possible Saturday night through Tuesday in scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 330 am Thu...A cold front will move off the coast early this morning, but winds will remain southwest through the short term. A tight pressure gradient will remain in place with gusty winds and rough seas continuing. No change to current small craft advisories now in effect. Long Term /Fri through Mon/ As of 330 am Thu...Improving boating conditions over the waters will be the general rule in the long term forecast, with good boating conditions still expected this weekend and especially for Memorial Day Monday. On Friday west winds will still be in the 15-25 knot range early in the day, with seas starting out 5 to 8 feet. This will be enough to continue small craft advisories all waters first thing in the morning. Improvement over the sounds is expected by midday but while winds diminish to under 20 kts by Friday afternoon, seas will remain 5 to 7 feet over the coastal waters with small craft conditions likely through sunset. This weekend winds will back toward the southwest and be generally 10 to 20 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet. Wavewatch guidance still suggest some 5 to 6 foot seas the outer waters off Cape Hatteras but wind speeds do not support these heights and will trim back from model guidance. By Monday and Tuesday winds will diminish even more and remain out of the southwest at 10 to 15. With the continued drop in wind speed waves will average around 3 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ130-131-150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...HSA/EH MARINE...HSA/EH

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