Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 232301 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue off the Southeast U.S. coast while a cold front remains stalled to the north through tonight. The front finally pushes through the region Friday night. Low pressure will develop south of the area this weekend as high pressure builds to the north. Another cold front will slowly move across the area Tuesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 7 PM Thu...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of the NC coastal plain...Martin/Pitt/Greene/Lenoir counties through 11 PM. Convective complex extending from SE VA back into KY, riding along the boundary, will continue to move ESE towards the cwa this evening. SPC continues slight risk for severe roughly north of U.S. Hwy 70. The activity to the north and west will approach and potentially move into northern half of FA as a squall line early this evening. Instability parameters fcst of 1500-2000 J/KG ml CAPE and deep layer shear aoa 30 KT support severe threat through first half of the overnight. The primary threats will be damaging winds and hail. Heavy rain may also pose a threat due to PW`s of around 2 in, though storms should be fast moving so flood threat is limited. Have advertised high chance sct pops north to iso south, though doubtful if the convection will make it as far south as the Crystal Coast. Another warm and muggy night with lows well in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Thu...Should be a break in convective activity first half of Friday as atms recovers from evening convection. Tstorms develop once again in the afternoon as front to the north finally pushes into northern NC by late afternoon. Ahead of the front convection is expected to break out once again. Severe parameters remain unchanged with sufficient instability developing and 30+ kt of deep shear in place, thus a slight risk of severe in effect, mainly for damaging winds and large hail. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday...The weather for the upcoming weekend is looking good with only a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday and dry conditions expected Sunday. The forecast next week from Tuesday into Thursday is looking unsettled with the base of an eastern US upper trough extending into NC while at the surface a cold front slowly treks across the regions. Friday night through Saturday...A cold front will slowly drop south across the region Friday night into early Saturday morning. Expect ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms early Friday evening tending to weaken by late evening but can`t rule precipitation lingering mainly ahead of the front remainder of the night. Forecast Saturday a little more difficult. The front is forecast to move offshore by mid morning, but it is expected to stall just to the south and southeast while weak areas of low pressure move northeast along it. The models are generating precipitation across eastern NC behind the front possibly being aided by a weak mid level shortwave in the NW flow aloft. Not all that confident on how much precipitation will occur so will lower PoPs to 20-30% highest near the coast. Highs Saturday will be in the lower to middle 80s. Saturday night through Monday...High pressure will build down from the northeast across the Carolinas while upper level high pressure expands east from the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be near normal. Monday night through Thursday...An upper Level trough axis is forecast to develop south into the Carolinas as the upper ridge axis retreats to the west. This will allow a surface cold front to move slowly across the region Tuesday into Thursday. Will continue chance PoPs through the period. Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short term /Through Friday/... As of 7 PM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period outside of convection. Ongoing convection along the NC/VA border will approach the terminals over the next few hours. Brief periods of sub-VFR likely in convection...along with gusty winds. Isolated strong to severe tstms will be possible this evening, with best chances at PGV. Scattered showers/tstms expected to re- develop Friday afternoon as cold front slowly sinks southward. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 PM Thursday...Sub VFR conditions are expected Friday night as showers and thunderstorms occur ahead of a cold front. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm Saturday but most of the day should be dry with VFR conditions. Expecting dry weather Saturday night through Monday with predominate VFR conditions as High pressure prevails. Moisture is expected to increase Monday night and Tuesday ahead of a cold front leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief sub VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short term /Through Friday/... As of 7 PM Thu...Latest obs show SW winds 15-25 knots across the waters with seas 2-4 feet north of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 feet south. Winds 15-25 kt across central/southern waters and Pamlico Sound expected through the night, slowly diminishing on Friday though seas will remain above 6 ft into Fri afternoon for central waters. SCA`s remain in effect. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 PM Thursday...Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could linger into Friday night over the central and southern waters with moderate SW flow ahead of a cold front sinking south across the waters. The post frontal NE flow is expected to be 10 to 15 KT Saturday and continue through Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters from the north. 3 to 5 ft seas Friday night are forecast to be 2 to 4 ft Saturday and Sunday. Winds and seas are forecast to be benign Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves to the east and the next cold front approaches from the west causing the flow to veer to S/SW. Seas are forecast to be 2 to 3 ft through the period.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/CQD MARINE...JME/CQD/TL

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