Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 010150 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 10 PM TUE...AS ANTICIPATED...STORMS CROSSING CENTRAL NC HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO LACK OF HEATING THUS WANING DYNAMICS. ALSO...MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PERHAPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE WE CAN DIMINISH POPS AND TAKE OUT THUNDER ALL TOGETHER. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS AS THE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY TIGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HIGH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUE...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING SHORT WAVE PASSAGE TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE CANT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WED AFTN SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP, ALTHO MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS MAINLY LOWS 90S WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 700 PM TUE...OUTSIDE ANY EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ANY GIVEN TERMINAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION HAS SPARKED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING CENTRAL NC. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION (AND SUBSEQUENT CHANCES FOR TEMPO SUB- VFR CONDITIONS) IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE TENDING TO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN NC. WILL HAVE JUST VCSH FOR THIS TAF CYCLE UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND/OR COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE RESOLVED. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PURE FOG LATE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIGHT STIRRING OF THE BNDRY LAYER VIA SFC WIND. SOME PATCHY FOG CUD DEVELOP WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN MIGHT FALL OVERNIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...BASED ON OBS THIS EVENING...HAVE ADDED A SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT...GUSTS WILL EASILY BE AOA 25 KTS. ALSO...CENTRAL WATERS WERE ALREADY REACHED SCA IN TERMS OF WIND GUSTS. SO MOVED THEM AN HOUR AHEAD. THEREFORE...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE NOW IN SCA. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...POSS SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING EVENING. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CNTRL WTRS TONIGHT AND CONT SCA FROM LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THRU WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...LEP SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...BTC/HSA/LEP MARINE...BTC/HSA/LEP

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