Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260149 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SE US...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF THE NC/SC BORDER...THINK MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THOUGH WILL INTRODUCE POP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID- UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105 SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS. FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE. COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 945 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT...MOIST STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES. WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS 2-3FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/ AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN. SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO 4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...ZPS/CQD/RF MARINE...HSA/CQD/RF

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