Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 281046 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 646 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-10KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF/BTC AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD

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