Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 211122 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO THE NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/... VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...BTC/DAG MARINE...BTC/DAG

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