Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 261401 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1001 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DRY COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SE VA INTO NW NC...BASICALLY A WIND SHIFT TO NW...ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS WILL OFFSET WEAK CAA...AND COMBINE WITH WARMER STARTING TEMPS TO PRODUCE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY. 74-78 INLAND AND LOW 70S OUTER BANKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER AREA TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND OF COAST. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 40S INLAND TO 50S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR NEXT WEEKEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST WHERE THE 00Z GFS TROF IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP SATURDAY WHICH MOVES OUT SUNDAY. HPC APPEARS TO BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OFF THE COAST AND APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT. THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 60S...AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEST. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT MID MORNING THROUGH AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. DECOUPLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT GDNC INDICATES TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TOO LARGE TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...VFR/SKC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM FOG MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING UNDER AND SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 10-20KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH MENTION IN FCST TEXT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT BRIEF SECONDARY SURGE INDICATED BY MODEL CONSENSUS THIS EVENING. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST..NWPS AND WW3 FOR SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT N AND 2-4 FT S THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY MONDAY MORNING 10-15 KNOTS NORTH TO 5-10 KNOTS SOUTH...BUT WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE AND FORECAST WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RUN 2-4 FEET MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT SEAS WILL PICK UP TO 3-5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 2-4 FEET CONTINUING SOUTH.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JBM/HSA/CQD

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