Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 190616 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 216 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCT SHOWERS OVER WRN SECTIONS ARE DIMINISHING PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY REST OF NIGHT. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 1015 PM SAT...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SECOND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WEST. LATE EVENING UPDATE ZONES WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR THESE AREAS. CONTINUED WARM TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 303 PM SAT...A WET DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NC ON SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE SAGGED THROUGH E NC BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. APPROACHING PVA WILL BRING UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. THINK THAT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/CRYSTAL COAST VCNTY...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE AN INC POP TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED TS OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STEADILY INCREASES THOUGH WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE UNTIL LATER SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E IN THE MORNING...VEERING TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...WET AND STORMY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLEASANT BY MID TO LATE WEEK... SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOTTING OCCURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. THIS DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOLAR HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8 AND CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE FORCING WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORMS OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PRIMARILY IN AREAS TO OUR WEST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE COAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S MONDAY...HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID 70S BEACHES. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TUESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. COOL MORNING LOWS AROUND 50 REBOUND TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY. ANOTHER COOL MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS 50 TO 55...REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNNY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S FAR NORTHEAST AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SHRT WV. KEWN MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR VSBY WITH LIGHT FOG. SOME THINNING OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT KPGV DUE TO EARLY EVENING RAINFALL...AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG REST OF TAF SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVERNING...WITH WDSPRD IFR CIGS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MONDAY MORNING...BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY KPGV AND KISO LATE MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 1015 PM SAT...NE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS/SOUNDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT NEAR 5 FT VCNTY OF DIAMOND SHOALS. EXPECT THESE LIGHT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE HOISTED SCA FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING SW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND CURRENT SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS GENERALLY W/NW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/JBM MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA/TL

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