Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 241832 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 232 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL CONT TO EXTEND S INTO THE REGION. MDLS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENT LIFT DEVELOPING NRN TIER OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF...CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POPS THIS REGION. SHLD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY N WITH MILDER LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO N TO UPR 40S S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO S/SE DURING THE AFTN. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT... HOWEVER THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENT LIFT AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING AFTN SO ADDED SLIGHT CHC SHRA ALL AREAS. WILL PROB HAVE DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS INIT BUT THESE SHLD SCT OUT WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN DURING LATE MORN AND AFTN. MILD HIGHS RANGING FROM UPR 50S/LOW 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START OUT THE PERIOD. WED NIGHT...INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ADVECTS INTO E NC LATE SO ADDED THREAT OF THUNDER TO FCST. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS AROUND 60 MOST AREAS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STILL MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL SOAR THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 MOST AREAS INLAND...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. MAY BE A BREAK IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AS MAIN FORCING STILL WEST OF THE REGION AND THOUGH KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. COOLER TEMPS THOUGH STILL RATHER MILD WITH READINGS NEAR 60 MANY AREAS...WITH 50S ON THE OBX. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...UPR TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO E NC WITH STRONG CAA ENSUING. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER WITH UPR TROUGH AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SAT MORNING THOUGH IMPACTS AS GROUND AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S MOST LOCALES...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. SAT NIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRES AREA BUILDS INTO E NC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS. PLACES NEAR THE COAST SHOULD SEE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. GROWING SEASON WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN ON MARCH 28 ALL OF E NC SO MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. SUNDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER AND VEERING TO THE WEST. SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL SUITE WITH NEXT PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 24/00Z GFS AND CMC PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH SLOWER ECMWF ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. ALL SOLNS SUGGEST DECENT FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. DUE TO THE LONG RANGE AND DISAGREEMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HIGHER THAN SLGHT CHANCE ATTM.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...MID-LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXITS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME INLAND SECTIONS...KEWN/KOAJ FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE INITIATES LIFT. CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT LATER IN THE MORNING AS MIXING HELPS TO DRY THE LOWEST LEVELS. EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWERED CIGS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MDLS SHOW GRDNT REMAINING SLIGHTLY PINCHED ALONG CST OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES INLAND AND TRF TO THE E. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS. ON WED THE THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH WINDS WEAKENING A BIT AND GRAD VEERING TO SSE LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET THRU THE PERIOD...SOME 5 FOOTERS STILL POSS OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/LEP MARINE...RF/TL

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