Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KMHX 180903
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
403 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 355 AM Wednesday, light returns on radar across the
central portion of the state moving east ahead of a cold front
now entering the NC mountains. Have held on to high chance to
likely PoPs across the region today, with the favored areas
being the central and southern sections including the coast.
While rainfall coverage is likely to be decent, QPF amounts will
be fairly light. With a mild start with SW winds, temperatures
should reach the mid/upper 60s with a few spots at or above 70
degrees this morning before the cold front crosses the region
around midday. Skies clear as dewpoints fall during the
afternoon and any remaining showers move off the Outer Banks
around 21z or so. Continued a small chance of thunderstorms as
some guidance continues to indicate a ribbon of instability
across the southern CWA this morning.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Wednesday, high pressure will build east from the
western Virginias tonight with cooler air advecting into eastern
NC. Lows will range from the low to mid 40s inland with upper
40s over the Outer Banks. With diminish inland, but should stay
breezy along the coast as gradient remains tight between surface
low well offshore and building high to the northwest.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday, an omega block at the mid-levels over the
southwestern United States will keep the southeast in a mild
airmass through much of the next week. Some disturbances in the
mid-level flow coupled with weak cold fronts, will lead to
enhanced rain chances Wednesday, Friday with a stronger system to
bring more widespread rain Sunday night into Monday.
Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure will briefly
build along the Atlantic Coast leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, ranging in the 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday night through Friday night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move across the region coupled with an increase in deeper
Atlantic moisture, leading to another round of showers moving into
the western CWA late Thursday night and across our CWA Friday into
Saturday and Saturday night...This will be another transitional
day between systems as skies will be partly sunny with increased
clouds late Saturday night. Temperatures remain above normal.
Sunday through Tuesday...A very dynamic system is expected to
evolve as the omega block over the Southwestern United States
breaks down and the mid-level low and attendant surface low moves
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. This will increase the low-
level moisture into our region as set up a chance of widespread
showers. The low-level flow becomes strongly backed to the
southeast Monday, so some potential would exist for severe weather
if any instability can develop. Way too early to make that
determination at this point. Temperatures will remain very mild
for January through the period.
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 06z Thurs/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday, VFR conditions at all TAF sites early
this morning, but expect a period of MVFR ceilings for the early
to mid-morning hours with patchy showers ahead of cold front.
Conditions will improve quickly by mid-afternoon as drier air
surges in leading to decreased cloud cover and some gusty WNW/NW
Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, Weak high pressure builds quickly
Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected.
Another round of showers crosses the region late Thursday night
through Friday with periods of sub-VFR conditions again
expected, before again improving Saturday, the transitional day
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday, winds increasing over the coastal waters
with winds gusting to 27 knots at Diamond Buoy and 18 knots at
Hatteras Coast Guard station early this morning. Gusty SW winds
will become WNW/NW behind cold front around midday. Expect 15-25
knot winds and seas building to 4-7 feet through the afternoon
into this evening before subsiding quickly as high pressure
builds east from the Virginias. Winds veer to Northerly and
subside to 10-20 knots with seas dropping below 6 feet by
midnight tonight. No changes to advisories at this time.
Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday, gusty W/NW winds and rough seas will
continue behind a cold front into late Wednesday night before
subsiding as weak high pressure builds across the waters Thursday
into early Friday. Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through Saturday with
a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds
will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low
passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas
may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night into early Saturday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-