Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201552 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1050 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. FCST ON TRACK WITH FULL INSOLATION AND BREEZY W-SW WINDS PUSHING TEMPS INTO MID-UPR 50S. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES WHILE A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY START THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS EXPECTED. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FRI AND SAT. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OCCURS FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WARM BACK TO THE MID 50S SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC DEVELOPS. A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY WHILE AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2" WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOV...WHICH IS PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING PWATS ARE PRESENTLY NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS ATTM WHICH MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z 11/26 ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO REMOVE POPS. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 15Z. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS RTES. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY W-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN AS DRY FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KT EARLY TODAY TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TODAY THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS. THE NWPS HAD HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAS USED OVER THE LOWER WAVE WATCH WAVE MODEL SINCE FORECAST WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS MODEL WIND FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT THE OUTER WATERS LATE TODAY...PEAKING AT 5 TO 7 FT CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...NW TO N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUE INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST THEN SE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3-6 FT FRI MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH SCA EXPECTED TO END EARLY FRI EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...THROUGH 00Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH WINDS. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING AS HIGH AS 12 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 7-10 FT.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME/JBM SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK/JBM

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