Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 210229 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1029 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight then stall and dissipate near the southern sections Thursday. High pressure will extend into the area from the northwest Friday through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Minor adjustments to temps and dew points with update. No other changes as short wave trough and weak surface reflection will keep isolated convective threat over southern sections overnight. /Previous discussion/ As of 220 PM Wednesday...Weak short wave aloft and assoc sfc trof/front will approach from the NW thru the evening then move into the region later tonight. Forcing and moisture look limited and confined to mainly the srn tier so cont prev fcst of slight pops srn sections overnight. Skies will avg out PC with lows in the mid/upr 60s inland to lower 70s beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday...Sfc trof/front will stall and dissipate near or just S of srn section Thu. Mdls differ on precip chcs with GFS showing decent amount and NAM hardly any. Given uncertainty made little change to prev fcst with low chc to slight chc pops SW tier with no pop NE. Shld again see enuf sun for highs to reach low/mid 80s inland...NE flow will keep nrn cst cooler with highs around 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure will extend across the region from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Maria late this weekend and next week. Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. Thursday night through Sunday night...Surface high pressure and upper ridge will continue to build in from the north through the weekend, as Jose gradually weakens and meanders off the NE and Mid-Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level thickness values support temps near to slightly above normal through the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Monday through Wednesday...Hurricane Maria is currently forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual track will be determined by several factors including the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC, which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast it gets. The 12z GFS is slower and brings it slightly more eastward than its previous run, while the 12z ECMWF is slightly westward. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week, as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also possible. Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC on Hurricane Maria. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through 00Z Friday/... As of 710 PM Wednesday...VFR expected to dominate much of the period. Weak trough will produce isolated convective activity mainly near KOAJ tonight, and then scattered activity most of area Thu afternoon. Not enough coverage to warrant inclusion in TAFs tonight but will have VCSH for all buy KPGV Thu after 18Z. Majority of guidance indicating patchy MVFR fog inland again late tonight so continued mention for 08Z-12Z. Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 3 PM Wed...VFR conditions will dominate most of the period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across the region. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Thu/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday...no changes to winds/seas with update. /Previous discussion/ As of 220 PM Tuesday...Weak sfc front/trf will move into the region tonight then stall S of area Thu. Expect WSW winds 10 to 15 kts this evening ahead of trof to shift to NW later tonight then mainly NE 5 to 10 kts Thu...may remain variable srn tier with trf in area. Swells will cont...espcly over the central and nrn wtrs with seas mostly 4 to 6 feet N of Ocracoke and 2 to 4 feet S. Will cont SCA nrn wtrs thru late tonight and central waters thru Thu however will be close to subsiding below 6 feet all wtrs for a period later Thu. Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure will build in from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, with latest 12z GFS shifting slightly eastward and the ECMWF slightly westward. Mariners and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC. N/NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 5-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across the central waters through the entire period. Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from distant Hurricane Maria Thu night into early next week across all the waters. Small craft seas likely to re-develop by Fri evening and continue into next week, with double digit seas by Sunday and Monday. Too soon to determine specific impacts from Maria, but dangerous seas expected and strong N/NW winds will be possible. Large SE swells expected to build, Wavewatch currently showing swells 15-20 ft/15 seconds. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RF/JBM/CQD MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD

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