Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200606 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 206 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure just off the Carolina coast will dissipate tonight. A trof of low pressure will develop along the coastal plain Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move down from the north and become stationary across the area Saturday, then lift back north as a warm front Sunday. A cold front will move through from the west Sunday night. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 920 PM Wed...Shra inland have ended so removed slight pop. Radar show a few shra approaching srn cstl wtrs so added slight chc shra these wtrs with poss a few brushing close to OBX late tonight. Clouds have diminished a bit this evening with decent breaks...this may help lead to some patchy fog as winds go light to calm. No changes to lows with lower 60s inland to mid/upr 60s cst. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 345 pm Wed...After low dissipates, leeside trof develops along the coastal plain in the afternoon. Made no change in current PoPs with 20-30 PoPs across inland areas in the afternoon. Southwest winds will push afternoon highs into the mid 80s generally west of Highway 17 with upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Friday and Saturday...SW flow continues Friday and will increase throughout the day as a cold front approaches from the NW. An isolated sea breeze shower is possible, but the main shower and thunderstorm activity, albeit scattered, will hold off until later in the evening. Front is likely to stall overnight Friday in the vicinity of the US 64 corridor. Front will then lift back north Saturday night. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue Saturday as well, before the front moves further north. High temps on Friday will be quite warm, with maxes in the upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday, with upper 70s expected north of the stalled front, and mid 80s expected over the southern coastal plain. Sunday and Monday...Deep and elongated upper trough approaches from the NW Sunday. However, most of the upper level energy dives south over the Gulf Coast, and a cut off upper level low forms off the coast of Florida. That being said there is still some favorable dynamics over Eastern NC to support multicell to hybrid supercell storm types. Will continue to watch this as some strong to severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Cold front will pass through overnight Sunday, with N winds building in after the frontal passage. Showers will slowly taper off Monday from west to east. This will be a fairly wet period with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. High temps will range from the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday, and upper 60s to low 70s Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday...NNE flow continues Tuesday with coastal showers still hanging around. High temps will be cool again, maybe a degree or two cooler than Monday. Temps start to rebound again Wednesday as most of the showers will be along or off the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term /through 06z Friday/ As of 130 AM Thursday...Somewhat of a low confidence forecast through morning hours as models appear to be overdone with cloud cover, indicating Mean 1000-500 MB RH of 70-90% over area at 06Z but obs/satellite show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Have leaned to a climo/pattern recognition forecast which is generally in line with previous forecast, indicating current VFR conditions persisting next 1-2 hours followed by MVFR CIGs developing given light onshore flow. Period of 3-5 SM vsbys with fog likely all TAF sites as well, and included a TEMPO period of IFR conditions at KOAJ and KISO where lower conditions most probable. Conditions becoming VFR 12Z-14Z with CU/SCU most of day. Scattered convective possible in climo favored sea breeze zone but some meso models have trended drier. Will include VCSH during afternoon at just KEWN and KOAJ due to uncertainty of TSRA development at this time. Long Term /Thursday Night through Sunday/... As 345 PM Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions expected through Saturday night when widespread showers and thunderstorms may cause IFR conditions at times through Sunday. Some brief IFR conditions are also possible Friday as scattered thunderstorms move through the airspace.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term /through Thu/ As of 920 PM Wed...Seas at Diamond Shoals buoy finally have dropped below 6 feet so will drop SCA central wtrs. Prev disc... Weak low off the NC/SC coast will dissipate overnight. High pressure centered in the offshore waters will be the main feature for Thursday. Winds north of Cape Hatteras will remain southerly, while winds to the south will veer from southeast tonight to southwest Thursday. Loose pressure gradient will keep winds speeds low, mainly 5-10 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet. Long Term /Friday through Sunday/... As of 345 PM Wednesday...SW winds will generally be 15 to 20 knots on Friday with 3-5 ft seas. Some 6 foot seas are possible later in the afternoon across the central waters. Small craft conditions are likely later Friday night across the central waters as winds become 20-25 knots with 5-6 foot seas. Winds and seas relax some on Saturday, becoming WSW 10-15 knots and 3-5 ft. Winds and seas increase again Sunday turning SW again 20-25 knots with seas 5-8 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...RF/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...RF/JBM/SGK MARINE...RF/HSA/SGK

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