Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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692 FXUS62 KMHX 272048 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 448 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An area of low pressure will move northeast just off the coast tongiht. A stalled cold front to the northwest will gradually dissipate Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will gradually move through the area over the weekend as low pressure over the Ohio Valley moves northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 400 PM Tuesday...broken line of showers/isolated tstms moving through coastal plains while scattered to broken coverage of showers is diminishing along the coast. Latest meso models support inland activity continuing east to at least KEWN-KNCA areas early this evening before weakening with loss of heating. Scattered shower/isolated tstm threat will persist through overnight hours with moist unstable conditions and weak short wave energy along with low moving northeast just off coast. Will continue chance POPs all zones after likely POPs early this evening. Some concern for fog inland sections overnight if there is some clearing in areas that will receive rain this evening. Have added mentioned patchy fog there for now due to uncertainty on clearing and will let evening shift have a look for possibly more widespread mention. Min temps from upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Tuesday...Weak high pressure will be over area in the morning in wake of low pressure moving off to northeast and have lowered POPs to just lower chance early. Upper low dipping into Ohio Valley will produce additional short wave energy across area late morning through aftenoon and area will return to warm sector conditions as surface winds return to southerly as low pressure developes to west. Scattered showers and tstms will develop and some storms could be strong to marginally severe as increasing instability and shear may result in wind gust threat. Will carry higher chance POPs through afternoon. Max temps in the low to mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Tuesday...Minor update for slightly warmer temps Sunday-Monday. /Previous discussion/ As of 3 AM Tue...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the weekend. Wed through Thu...Weakening cold front will cont over the region Wed and Thu as big upr low conts to the NW. Axis of good moisture will remain over eastern NC leading to at least chc of shra and poss a few tsra. Best chcs will be inland Wed and have pops just below likely. Precip may become a bit more sct into Thu and have lower chc pops area wide. Temps close to seasonal for late Sept with highs 70s to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70 beaches. Fri through Tue...The upr low to the NW will slowly move NE into the weekend as sfc front conts to dissipate. Drier mid lvl air will spread in from the W Fri with slight chc of shra over ern portions of the area. Not much change Sat into Mon with mdls keeping bulk of moisture near cst and offshore so will cont slight pop imd cst and dry inland. Highs will cont near seasonal lvls with upr 70s to around 80.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday As of 130 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions at TAF sites will generally persist into this evening with weak warm sector conditions between low pressure offshore of SC and weak cold front approaching from W-NW. Do expect developing line of SHRA/TSRA with VSBYs near 3SM to affect KPGV and KISO between 19Z-22Z while VCSH for KEWN/KOAJ. VCSH threat will linger into evening all sites. Light winds and some clearing possible for inland sites overnight and will indicate MVFR VSBY fog those areas. If area receives significant rain, could see IFR conditions but uncertain at this time. Long Term /Wed night through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Decent coverage of shra into Thu with poss some isold trsa. The precip will lead to a few periods of sub VFR thru Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR thru Sun...there will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and stratus with light winds late week.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Wednesday/ As of 400 PM Tuesday...low pressure approaching from south is fairly weak but is producing max 3 hourly pres falls near Diamond Shoals, resulting in persistent east winds gusting to around 20 KT and seas up to 5 FT. NAM is only model indicating this and has speeds that areas around 15 KT into overnight hours, and persistent gusts will likely produce seas to 6 feet. Posted SCA central waters through late tonight but confidence moderate at best. Low moving NE just offshore will result in current E-SE winds backing to NE and N overnight with speeds rest of waters mainly below 15 KT and seas 2-4 FT. Weak high pressure over area in the morning will move offshore in afternoon with winds returning to SE-S 10-15 KT with seas remaining 2-4 FT. Long Term /Wed through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Light mainly NNE winds in wake of low early Wed quickly returns to light S or SE later in the day with weakening cold front to the W. Predominately S to SW winds 15 kts or less Thu into Fri as dissipating front drifts to the cst. Light winds Sat with the front or whats left of it near cst. Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with 5 ft at times far outer waters.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...RF/JBM AVIATION...RF/JBM MARINE...RF/JBM

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