Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 171517 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1017 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today. Low pressure will develop along the front offshore tonight. Both systems are forecast to produce snow across Eastern North Carolina today into tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday through the weekend. A cold front will cross the region Monday night followed by High pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Wed...Very complicated and challenging forecast. Latest 17/12Z meso model suite continues to lock onto idea of developing coastal low in vcnty of Gulf Stream by this evening. Thus, there will be a delayed onset of precip, and warmer temps aloft through the day today, translating to a slower trend in precip arriving today, and delayed transition to snow today and this evening. Have a slow increasing pop trend with mainly dry through early afternoon, then rain arriving and transitioning to snow late in the day across the coastal plain counties and northern tier. Will adjust beginning times of WSW to account for slower transition to snow. Things get very complicated tonight, as low pres will be developing off the coast this evening. There is a small window of opportunity for the coast to reach warning criteria snow (2-3 inches) before rapid drying occurs. Warm nose still present at 00Z will quickly erode by late evening, while in tandem there is a period of strong fgen/omega in DGZ in deformation axis from Carteret through OBX. Some localized amounts could reach or even exceed the 2-3 in. amounts, but again the target of opportunity will be limited to just several hours before cold dry air erodes the column a snow ends late tonight. Previous Discussion...As of 345 AM Wed...Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for portions of Eastern NC, as a coastal low is now expected to develop offshore and bring heavier snows to coastal areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 2-4 inches of snow is expected generally east of US 17, with 1-2 inches of snow still expected across the coastal plain associated with a cold front which will cross the region today. Ahead of the cold front this morning, temperatures will rise above freezing, into the low to mid 40s in spots. Rain showers will develop by late morning across the coastal plain, and temperatures will begin to sharply drop. Rain will change to light snow by afternoon across the coastal plain, and temperatures will drop below freezing soon thereafter. This transition to snow will move from west to east for the rest of the afternoon, as the cold front moves to the coast. Snowfall accumulations will be light, generally 1-2 inches west of HWY 17. Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere. Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder. Snow will end on the coastal plain in the evening, while snow will remain falling closer to the coast, through early Thursday morning. Low temperatures will be quite cold behind the snow, with upper teens to low 20s expected inland, and low to mid 20s likely along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM Wed...Cold and dry conditions will follow the offshore low pressure system Thursday, with high temps only topping out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be very cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected inland, and 20s along the coast Thursday morning, and low to mid 20s inland Friday morning. As the cold upper trough moves away on Friday, high temperatures will moderate to 50 to 55. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM Wednesday... Saturday through Sunday...High pressure moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow temperatures to warm above average over the weekend, with dry weather expected. Monday and Monday night...A cold front will approach late Monday bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More widespread showers are expected Monday night as the front crosses the area. Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the front with highs in the lower to middle 60s expected. Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and slightly cooler conditions will be forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models indicate high pressure over the area. Highs are projected around 60 Tuesday and mid to upper 50s Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 650 AM Wednesday...A Winter storm will bring mixed precipitation changing to all snow to the area from mid afternoon through mid evening. Current forecast will call for MVFR conditions in mixed rain and snow 18-21Z then IFR conditions in all snow 23-5Z. VFR conditions are expected after 6Z as drier air filters into the region. VFR conditions will then continue on Thursday as high pressure builds over NC. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 340 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday with dry high pressure forecast to be over the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 950 AM Wednesday...Only change was to upgrade Pamlico Sound to Gale Warning for tonight. Gale Warnings have been issued for the waters south of Oregon Inlet for strong gusty northerly winds and dangerous seas of 10+ feet. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the waters. Latest obs show N winds 5-15 kt and seas 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. A cold front will move through the waters this afternoon, with northerly winds increasing quickly along with building seas. Northerly winds peak at 25-35 kt with seas 7-11 ft late tonight and early Thursday as low pressure develops off of the coast. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 340 AM Wednesday...Rough conditions will persist Thursday with the strongest winds and highest seas in the morning. Winds will become NW and diminish to 10 to 20 kt Thursday afternoon allowing seas south of Ocracoke and north of Oregon Inlet to subside below 6 ft by early evening. Seas over the central waters will likely take until late Thursday evening to subside. Rough conditions will persist across the waters through Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds and hazardous seas through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W/SW flow around 15 kt is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday. Sunday W/NW flow around 10 kt will become S by evening with forecast seas of 2 to 3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Thursday for NCZ029-044-079-090-091. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Thursday for NCZ092-098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ130-131. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...TL/SGK SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME MARINE...JME/CQD

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