Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 220446 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1246 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through the area tonight. The low will move well offshore Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. The high will continue to build over the area through Thursday then slide offshore Friday. An area of low pressure will approach the area late this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1230 AM Wed... Band of shra with isold tsra will cross thru morn. Tsra shld grad end as atms becomes more stable over area with front over srn tier cont to push slowly S. Will maintain mainly likely pops rest of the night with lows mid to upr 40s N to lower 50s S. NE winds will begin to increase rapidly toward daybreak over central and srn beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 1230 AM Tue... Will put up a wind advisory for OBX for most of Wed with strong NNE winds on backside of low pres. Prev disc...Clouds and even a few showers will linger into mid morning Wednesday especially over the coastal counties. Drier air will win out by midday, with a clearing sky by afternoon. Temps will be much cooler, with a northeast flow dragging in cooler weather. Highs by afternoon will still be near 60, but this will be a good 20 degrees cooler than today, especially inland. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the upper midwest and the low off shore will also lead to breezy weather, with gusts over 20 mph likely from mid morning on. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Tue...Arctic high pressure will build into the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing below normal temperatures with much of the area dropping below freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. The high will move offshore Friday bringing moderating temperatures into the weekend. A frontal system will approach from the west late in the weekend bringing an increased chance of showers. Wednesday night through Thursday night...Arctic high pressure builds into the region Wed night through Thu night bringing temperatures several degrees below normal and the threat of below freezing temperatures across much of the area each morning. Skies will be mainly clear through the period but could see increased mid/high clouds late Wed night and early Thu as a fast moving and weak shortwave moves through NW flow aloft. Lows Thu morning expected in the upper 20s/lower 30s inland to low to mid 30s along the coast. Highs Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s well inland and southern areas but remain in the mid to upper 40s NE sections and the OBX. Brisk northerly winds will continue Thursday and wind chills will keep it feeling more like the mid 30s to mid 40s across much of the area. Cold again Thu night/Fri morning with temperatures near freezing inland and 35 to 40 along the coast. Friday through Tuesday...The high moves offshore Fri bringing moderating temperatures through the weekend and early next week. Models trending drier for Sat and think Fri, Sat, and likely Sat night will remain dry...though could see increasing shower chances off the coast near the Gulf Stream Sat. Models show a vertically stacked low pressure system tracking across the Ohio River Valley Sun, then gradually weakening as it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Mon with a trailing cold front sliding across the area. There continues to be a good bit of uncertainty in how this system evolves and impacts ENC with differences between the GFS and ECMWF. Continued to favor the previous forecast and WPC, which leans more towards the ECMWF. Continue chance PoPs Sun and Mon, then tapering to slight chance Mon night and Tue. Will keep sc thunder mention with marginal instability and shear. Temps forecast to warm into the 60s inland Fri, then into the low/mid 70s over the weekend, though coastal areas, especially the OBX will be several degrees cooler in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /Through 00Z Thursday/... As of 1230 AM Wed...Band of shra with poss a cpl tsra will cross rest of the night. Expect period of MVFR to develop most sites with poss some IFR srn tier. Shra will end and cigs will lift to VFR by mid morn with mclr skies expected by aftn and that will cont thru Wed night. Gusty NNE winds expected all sites thru much of the day. Long Term /Thu through Sunday/... As of 245 PM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected Wed night through Sat...though cannot rule out patchy early morning fog late in the week as temps/dewpoints moderate. Sub-VFR conditions possible Sunday as a frontal system approaches the region with scattered showers developing. && .MARINE... Short Term.../through Wednesday/... As of 1230 AM Wed...No changes with strong NNE winds developing quickly Wed morn as low pres slides off the coast. Prev disc...Frontal boundary moving slowly south currently on a Hatteras to Greenville line. Winds are generally light NE north of Cape Hatteras and SW to the south at speeds of 10 knots or less. Seas are in the 3-5 foot range currently. No major changes to forecast. A Gale Warning is in effect for Wednesday/Wednesday evening for all of the coastal waters outside of the far northern waters, along with the Pamlico Sound. A small craft advisory has been issued for the far northern coastal waters from Oregon Inlet north, along with Albemarle sound and Alligator River. Winds will be NE to NNE through the period, 25 to 35 kts in the gale warning and 25 to 30 (with occasional gusts to 35 kts in the advisory area). In fact over the far end of the Albemarle sound and the southeast part of our northern waters, brief gales are possible but not long enough in duration to include them in the warning. Waves will run between 5 and 10 feet. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 245 PM Tue...Gusty north winds 20-25 kt Wed evening will slowly diminish late Wed night and Thu to around 10-20 kt by Thu afternoon. Light winds expected Fri as the high shifts off the coast, with S/SW winds re-developing and increasing to 10-15 kt Fri night though Sunday. Seas 6-10 feet Wed evening, gradually subsiding and should drop below 6 feet by late Thu afternoon and early evening. Fri though Sun expect seas pred 2-4 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ103-104. MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ130-131. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EH NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...RF/EH LONG TERM...RSB/CQD AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CTC/EH/CQD

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