Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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432 FXUS62 KMHX 221635 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1235 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the northwest today and extend over the area from the north Tuesday through Friday. Another weak cold front will cross the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 950 AM Monday, a few scattered clouds linger across mainly the southern CWA this morning. Dewpoints have dropped into the 60s area-wide making for what should be a pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 80s with moderate N/NE breezes. Minimal changes to the current forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Mon...High pres will cont to build in from the N with dry air and mainly clear skies. Winds will diminish enuf for good radiational cooling inland and will have coolest lows in some time with lower 60s cooler spots. Along the beaches temps will have hard time dropping below 70 per NE breeze and very warm water temps. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday...A welcome relief from the heat and humidity expected through much of the workweek as strong high pressure builds into the region bringing a much drier airmass to the region. Tuesday through Friday...High pressure will be centered across the Mid Atlantic states Tuesday and will slowly migrate across New England and offshore while continuing to ridge south/southwest across the Carolina`s through Friday. Meanwhile, upper ridging builds into the region from the west keeping the storm track north of the area. Broad subsidence, limited moisture and a stable airmass will keep dry conditions across the region. Cannot rule out isolated showers across the coastal waters Wednesday through Friday as models have been indicating a coastal trough moving toward the waters, however 00Z models have trended to less coverage from earlier runs. Max temps expected to be near normal inland Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and slightly below normal along the OBX with NE winds keeping highs in the low to mid 80s. It will be quite comfortable for late August with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and perhaps into the upper 50s at some locations. This will also bring good radiational cooling conditions overnight with lows expected to be around 5-10 degrees below normal across inland areas with lows in the low to mid 60s while the warmer ocean temps will moderate temps along the coast with near normal lows in the lower 70s. The airmass begins to moderate Friday with highs climbing back into the lower 90s inland to mid to upper 80s along the coast with more humid conditions returning with dewpoints climbing to around 70. Saturday through Sunday...A weak cold front approaches from the west Saturday and slowly slides through the region Saturday night and early Sunday with strong high pressure building back into the region from the north through the day Sunday. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with the airmass becoming modestly unstable however upper level support will be weak with ridging continuing over the area. Thicknesses for Saturday support highs in the low to mid 90s inland with mid to upper 80s along the coast. Developing N/NE flow on Sunday bring a few degrees of cooling, especially along the OBX and expect highs around 90 inland and low to mid 80s along the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 1230 PM Mon...VFR conditions expected through the short term. Clear skies and light N/NW winds are present this afternoon and will persist overnight. There may be some patchy ground fog inland over the coastal plain, i.e. PGV and ISO, but it should not be widespread enough to impact visibilities. Winds will shift to the NE for Tuesday under sunny skies. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Monday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the long term. High pressure will build across the region through the work week bringing dry conditions and light winds. While light/calm winds overnight will bring good radiational cooling conditions, dewpoint depressions should be large enough to prevent early morning fog development until perhaps Thursday and Friday mornings when the airmass is expected to moderate.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 955 AM Monday, cold front is now well south of the region. Winds currently N/NE at 10-20 knots with the higher gusts over the central and northern waters. No seas above 5 feet have been observed at the buoys so will drop SCA at this time. As high builds closer late today and this evening winds will diminish to less than 15 kts with seas dropping to 2 to 4 feet. NE winds may increase back to near 15 kts later tonight as gradient tightens with high to the N...seas will cont 2 to 4 ft overnight. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Sunday...The high pressure will slowly migrate eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and New England through the long term while continuing to ridge south/southwest into the Carolina`s. NE wind around 10-15 KT, perhaps slightly stronger at times, expected Tuesday through Wednesday. NE winds diminish to 5-10 KT by Thursday and become light and variable Friday. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement through much of the period with seas around 2-4 FT through Thursday, subsiding to around 1-3 FT Friday. A prolonged period of NE winds with a long fetch across the north western Atlantic combined with moderate period swells are expected to bring an elevated rip current risk for much of the week, especially across east facing beaches. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/SGK MARINE...RF/CTC/SK

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