Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 170028 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 828 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 700 PM WED...MINOR TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS COASTAL SXNS TO LWR TO LWR 40S FOR MINS. OTRW...JUST INIT T/TD. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW MOVING UP STATIONARY FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SEND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THEN TURN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. TEMPS WILL VARY FROM LWR 40S ON THE OUTER BANKS WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST...TO MID 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO MID 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME IN WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP THE GULF STREAM. MOISTURE AND LIGHT QPF WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PRECIP MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION RETURNS AHEAD OF A FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PEAKING IN THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & THU/ AS OF 700 PM WED...NO CHANGE IN PREV THINKING. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. VFR/SKC WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2.5 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER THAT AROUND 3.5 KFT. NO RAIN IS FORECAST. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS INCREASE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LIKELY SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & THU/ AS OF 700 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO KEEP SCA UP FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND INCLUDING ALLIGATOR RVR THROUGH 4 AM WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DROP SCA FOR NEUSE ...PAMLICO...AND PUNGO RIVERS. NE- SW ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEKEND IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AS SEAS SUBSIDE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND STRONG 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD DROP OFF TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHEAST SWELL WAS PRODUCING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS AS THE TIDES MOVES IN THIS EVENING. A SPOTTER ON HATTERAS ISLAND REPORTED THAT WATERS WAS STARTING TO COME UP ALONG HIGHWAY IN BUXTON AS OF 8 PM. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 915 PM AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ON HATTERAS ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL DROP AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO END THE THREAT FOR MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...JAC/CTC/HSA MARINE...JAC/CTC/HSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JAC/JME

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