Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 270726 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 326 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TODAY TO RECENT DAYS WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR NORTH WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY OFFSHORE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE CLIPPED THE OUTER BANKS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A 20 PCT POP IN FOR THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL RACES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AND LOOK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO THE DRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT GETS FLATTENED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE WEAK AND KEPT 20-30 POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE PIEDMONT TROF DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING EITHER THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KPGV OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AT THAT TAF SITE. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AT PGV AND ISO...STILL ISOLATED AT OAJ AND EWN. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SOUTH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BEGINNING SATURDAY SO VFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON ALL WATERS TODAY. ROUGH SEAS PERSIST WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OFF OREGON INLET. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PERSIST AS WELL WITH 13 SECONDS OFF OREGON INLET. AS THE STORM MAKES IT CLOSEST PASS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE SEAS RAMP UP TO AS HIGH AS 11 OR 12 FEET AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT LATER THIS EVENING WITH N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY EVENING. CONTINUE SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM TUE...ELEVATED ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY THU AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. EXTENDED SCA TIMES A FEW HOURS...INTO THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING PRED S/SW FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 325 AM WEDS...A HIGH SURF ADVRY CONTINUES FOR BEACHES FROM LOOKOUT N THRU THIS EVENING. BOTH WAVE WATCH AND LOCAL SWAN SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET OFF OBX WITH 7 TO 8 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOC WITH CRISTOBAL. THESE SWELLS WILL LEAD TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MAINLY N OF LOOKOUT WHERE FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ095-103- 104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156- 158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CTC/HSA MARINE...CTC/HSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CTC

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