Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 172320 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 620 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered southeast of the region through Saturday. Weak low pressure will pass south of the area Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday then slide offshore Wednesday. Low pressure will pass to the south late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 600 PM Friday...minor update for hourly temp and dew point trends early this evening. Rest of forecast on track. /Previous discussion/ As of 315 PM Friday...milder temps expected tonight with warm advection underway between high pressure offshore and troughing to west. Clear skies expected most of the night with some cirrus possible from SW near morning. Dew points will be increasing to near 40 overnight and winds may decouple around sunrise, but guidance is generally not supportive of any significant fog development. Min temps mainly upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...Short wave ridging will crest over area Saturday morning, then dampening short wave trough moving out of Gulf of Mexico region will be moving toward area during the afternoon. Increasing mid and high clouds expected during the day with this system but guidance in general agreement that precip threat will hold off until Saturday night. Even with increasing clouds, low level thicknesses and SW winds support max temps in lower 70s inland and 60s Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Fri.... Saturday night through Sunday....An approaching shortwave from the lower MS valley/TN valley will track across the Southeast region and cross Eastern NC Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Models continue to show a drier trends over the region...keeping most of the rain offshore. Continued the mention of isolated showers for most of the area with mostly cloudy skies. Skies will gradually clear from W to E Sunday. Expect mild temps with highs reaching around 70s inland to 60s along the beaches. Monday through Wednesday....Ridging and sfc high pressure builds back Monday and slides off the coast late Tuesday night. Meanwhile a strong mid-upper level trough over the Pacific region moves along the southern CONUS and develops a closed low over the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday night. Models have a good agreement with the closed low tracking btw FL and Cuba, while a shortwave move across Eastern NC. Increased POPs for Wednesday as both GFS/ECMWF showing increase moisture across the area. Expect highs in the 60s to around 70 inland and upper 50s to low 60s coast Monday. Tuesday...temps drop a few more degrees with temps reaching into the low/mid 60s inland and upper 50 to low 60s along the beaches due to a NNE flow. Wednesday...temperatures will increase back in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees inland to low/mid 60s coast as the winds become WSW. Thursday through Friday...High pressure will continue to extend over from the western Atlantic...providing a southerly flow. Lingering moisture from what was a closed low will filter into the area increasing precip chances through Friday. Expect high is reach into the low 70s inland and 60s along the coast. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term /through 00Z Sunday/... As of 600 PM Friday...VFR conditions expected prevail during TAF period. Cannot rule out a brief period of patchy ground fog near sunrise Saturday morning if winds totally decouple but guidance does not support any prolonged period of lower VSBYs, thus no mention in forecast. High clouds will increase during the day Saturday with dampening short wave approaching from SW. Light SW winds expected overnight with gusts to 15 KT possible during the day Saturday. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 315 PM Fri...High confidence of VFR conditions through the period. Expect spotty showers as a shortwave approaches the area Saturday night, however flying conditions wil remain VFR. High pressure build back late Sunday through Tuesday. Another shortwave will approach the area Wednesday...leading to sub-VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 600 PM Friday...no changes with update. /Previous discussion/ As of 330 PM Friday...Winds have become SW 10-15 KT over waters this afternoon with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure to west. This pattern will hold through short term period with pressure gradient tightening on Saturday as upper level short wave moves in from SW. Model blend supports a period of 20-25 KT winds over central waters late Saturday into Saturday evening and SCA issued accordingly. Seas mainly 2-4 feet tonight will build to 3-5 feet Saturday with some 6 foot heights outer central waters late in the day. Long Term /Sat night through Wednesday/... As of 315 PM Fri...SW winds will peak Saturday evening ahead of the approaching shortwave...with gusts to 25 knots over the central waters and this will lead to a brief period of 6 ft seas over the outer central waters Sat night. Winds will become NW 5 to 15 kt Sun as the weak low passes offshore and high pressure builds in from the NW with seas subsiding 2 to 3 feet. N/NE winds increase Monday 10 to 20 knots and seas building to 3 to 5 feet highest over northern/ central. Winds start to diminish Tuesday 10 to 15 knots and then 5 to 10 knots Wednesday. Seas subside Tuesday becoming 2 to 3 ft Wednesday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JBM/BM/SGK MARINE...JBM/BM

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