Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 280004 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 804 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to extend across the area tonight, while an area low pressure slowly moves northwest towards South Carolina. The low will weaken to a trof of low pressure along the coast this weekend and linger through early next week. High pressure will build in by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 pm Fri...Little change for the evening update. Latest analysis shows sfc high pressure and ridging aloft...with weak low north of the Bahamas. Scattered diurnal cu has dissipated quickly this evening but beginning to see high clouds approach from the southeast. Think the overnight should remain dry, with precip chances increasing along the southern coastal area towards sunrise Sat morning. Could see some areas of patchy fog develop overnight/early Sat morning inland with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 315 pm Fri...Ridge continues to weaken over ENC as area of low pressure approaches the SE US. Challenging precip forecast Sat with increasing moisture around the low. The GFS continues to be more wetter developing widespread showers, while the ECMWF/NAM and high res models are drier keeping the bulk of the precip south and offshore. Adjusted previous pops slightly, increasing along the southern coast and lowering across the northern forecast area. Could see a sharpened precip gradient develop...with scattered showers and storms moving in off the waters. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible as PWAT values surge to around 2 inches by the afternoon. Low level thickness values and increasing cloud cover support highs 80-85 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Fri...Latest models continue in pretty good agreement showing weak tropical/subtropical low to move slowly toward the coast south of the area later this weekend then meandering N/NW early next week. No real changes in current expected impacts for eastern NC with enhanced chances of rain and a higher threat of rip currents through midweek. Saturday Night through Monday...27/12Z model suite continues to show circulation moving inland across SC Saturday night/Sunday then meandering very slowly north or northeastward early next week. Steering flow is very weak and the low will likely evolve into an open wave/trough feature by early next week. Regardless of whether or not the system gets named, there will be rich and deep southerly flow that will bring unseasonably high PW`s above 2 inches across the eastern seaboard, with the threat of periods of heavy rain showers with localized flooding and eventual river flooding developing. Temps will be uncomfortably warm and humid due to TD`s in the 70s with highs in the 80s and lows in the low 70s. Tuesday through Thursday...As the low slowly dissipates, rain chances and coverage will diminish and pattern will become more summery with typical diurnal convection across the interior with lesser chances along the beaches. Temps will remain above climo with hts/thicknesses above avg with highs well into the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday/... As of 745 PM Fri...VFR condition expected most of the overnight though patchy ground fog is possible late tonight. Cross-over temps are not expected to be reached but dewpoints creep up overnight and model sounding indicative of possible shallow ground fog development. Currently mention MVFR vsbys with a sct 700 ft deck as soundings dry quickly above this level. Wouldn`t be surprised to see conditions to temporarily drop to IFR or even LIFR. With significant drying above the boundary layer expect fog to burn off quickly Saturday morning. High clouds in the morning will give way to low to mid level clouds through the morning as well as a chance for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible but best chance will be closer to the coast as it will take some time to moisten the column. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Fri...Plenty of moisture with sct to numerous rain showers with embedded tsra expected Sat night through Mon as a weak tropical disturbance affects the area. Expect occasional MVFR to IFR in the showers and low clouds through Monday. With low levels very moist could also have some light fog develop during the overnight period. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 745 pm Fri...Little changes for the evening update. Latest obs show mainly SE/E 5-10 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. High pressure will weaken over the area tonight and Saturday as low pressure slowly approaches the SE US. SE/E winds 5-10 knots and slightly higher across the outer portions of the central/southern waters overnight with seas building to 2-4 feet late. Predominant easterly winds 10-15 knots Saturday, though below normal forecast confidence continues regarding seas for Saturday. Local NWPS and Wavewatch build seas to 6 feet, south of Hatteras, by late Saturday morning with increasing swell from approaching low. Capped seas at 5 feet for now, given the uncertainty on how much swell will make it to the NC waters. Though there will be the potential for seas to build to 6 feet on the outer waters Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Fri...Predominant SE winds through Sunday as weak tropical low moves towards the SC coast. The winds will be SE generally 10-15 knots. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to show marginal 6 foot seas outer southern/central waters through Sunday then subsiding 3-4 feet early to middle next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL NEAR TERM...SK/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF/TL AVIATION...SK/TL/SGK MARINE...SK/CQD/TL

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