Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 311908 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 308 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING. MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS ALONG THE COAST IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINITE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING...WILL NOT MENTION IT IN TAFS. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AS THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON...10 TO 20 KNOTS AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/BM MARINE...CGG/BM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.