Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 290946 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...JAC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JAC/TL MARINE...JAC/TL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.