Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 010750 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 250 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 229 AM SUN...COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING INTO DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVAPORATION CAUSING ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT BEST DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BUT POSSIBLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS...AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IN AREAS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERTURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. MAJORITY OF MOISTURE INITIALLY EVIDENT IN CROSS SECTIONS AROUND 7H WITH DRY LAYER AROUND 8H. DRY LAYER MOISTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF TIL AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES. MOISTURE LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW 7H SO PRECIP WILL BE LOW TOPPED. COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY TURNING WINDS TO SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN SECTIONS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WEST WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION FOR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 239 AM SUN...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT EARLY DURING THE EVENING WITH FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BECOMING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LOSE MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 230 AM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CONT CHC POPS MON MORNING MAINLY CST WITH RAIN ENDING BY AFTN. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALL TO THE S AND HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH 30S MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHCS GRAD INCREASING THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S/NEAR 50 N TO MID/UPR 50S S. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SW WINDS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO CONT LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING OF FRONT NOW AND SHOW STRONG CAA DEVELOPING BY 12Z THU AND CONT THRU THE DAY. BASED ON THIS SIGNIF LOWERED TEMPS LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. PRECIP WILL END LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... AS OF 1221 AM SUN...LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WIH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP EARLY...MAINLY CST WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. BY MON AFTN DRIER AIR SPREADS IN WITH VFR EXPECTED THAT WILL CONT INTO TUE MORN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH SCT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW INLAND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 246 AM SUN...ALL FLAGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS SEAS AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. WILL SEA SPEEDS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATESR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MON. WNW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY WILL BECOME N DURING AFTN. SEAS MON MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET WITH POSS OF SOME 6 FOOTER FAR OUTER WATERS. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH SEAS CONT 4 TO 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FEET EARLY TUE THEN RAMP BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH BIG SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...CGG/RF MARINE...CGG/RF

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