Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180903 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 403 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 355 AM Wednesday, light returns on radar across the central portion of the state moving east ahead of a cold front now entering the NC mountains. Have held on to high chance to likely PoPs across the region today, with the favored areas being the central and southern sections including the coast. While rainfall coverage is likely to be decent, QPF amounts will be fairly light. With a mild start with SW winds, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 60s with a few spots at or above 70 degrees this morning before the cold front crosses the region around midday. Skies clear as dewpoints fall during the afternoon and any remaining showers move off the Outer Banks around 21z or so. Continued a small chance of thunderstorms as some guidance continues to indicate a ribbon of instability across the southern CWA this morning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM Wednesday, high pressure will build east from the western Virginias tonight with cooler air advecting into eastern NC. Lows will range from the low to mid 40s inland with upper 40s over the Outer Banks. With diminish inland, but should stay breezy along the coast as gradient remains tight between surface low well offshore and building high to the northwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday, an omega block at the mid-levels over the southwestern United States will keep the southeast in a mild airmass through much of the next week. Some disturbances in the mid-level flow coupled with weak cold fronts, will lead to enhanced rain chances Wednesday, Friday with a stronger system to bring more widespread rain Sunday night into Monday. Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure will briefly build along the Atlantic Coast leading to slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be several degrees cooler than Wednesday, ranging in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday night through Friday night...A strong mid-level shortwave will move across the region coupled with an increase in deeper Atlantic moisture, leading to another round of showers moving into the western CWA late Thursday night and across our CWA Friday into Friday evening. Saturday and Saturday night...This will be another transitional day between systems as skies will be partly sunny with increased clouds late Saturday night. Temperatures remain above normal. Sunday through Tuesday...A very dynamic system is expected to evolve as the omega block over the Southwestern United States breaks down and the mid-level low and attendant surface low moves across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. This will increase the low- level moisture into our region as set up a chance of widespread showers. The low-level flow becomes strongly backed to the southeast Monday, so some potential would exist for severe weather if any instability can develop. Way too early to make that determination at this point. Temperatures will remain very mild for January through the period. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 06z Thurs/... As of 105 AM Wednesday, VFR conditions at all TAF sites early this morning, but expect a period of MVFR ceilings for the early to mid-morning hours with patchy showers ahead of cold front. Conditions will improve quickly by mid-afternoon as drier air surges in leading to decreased cloud cover and some gusty WNW/NW winds. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... As of 310 AM Tuesday, Weak high pressure builds quickly Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected. Another round of showers crosses the region late Thursday night through Friday with periods of sub-VFR conditions again expected, before again improving Saturday, the transitional day between systems. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 4 AM Wednesday, winds increasing over the coastal waters with winds gusting to 27 knots at Diamond Buoy and 18 knots at Hatteras Coast Guard station early this morning. Gusty SW winds will become WNW/NW behind cold front around midday. Expect 15-25 knot winds and seas building to 4-7 feet through the afternoon into this evening before subsiding quickly as high pressure builds east from the Virginias. Winds veer to Northerly and subside to 10-20 knots with seas dropping below 6 feet by midnight tonight. No changes to advisories at this time. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 315 AM Tuesday, gusty W/NW winds and rough seas will continue behind a cold front into late Wednesday night before subsiding as weak high pressure builds across the waters Thursday into early Friday. Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through Saturday with a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night into early Saturday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...EH MARINE...EH

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