Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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617 FXUS62 KMHX 241744 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 144 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach from the northwest today and sag into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will lift north of the area late in the week. Another cold front will move into the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 945 AM Monday...Our area remains in a lull with a few showers well out across the coastal waters, and then a few more east of Raleigh. This area of showers east of Raleigh will track into our western forecast area before noon. Then later this afternoon heating will lead to destabilization and with upper troughing and the approach of a weak surface cold front, will result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the weakly capped environment. Poor mid level lapse rates should inhibit convective organization, thus expecting most thunderstorms to remain below severe limits with local downpours the main threat with PW values forecast to be >2". However, cell mergers and/or boundary interactions could lead to a pulse severe cell or two producing damaging wind gusts. With considerable clouds expected and slightly lower thickness values, high temps will be a touch lower today. Dew points will remain in the 70s however, and while we fall just short of heat advisory criteria (105), widespread values in excess of 100 degrees will be common. We will highlight this in our hazardous weather outlook (HWO). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM Monday...The cold front will be moving into the area tonight but with the loss of heating, would expect a decrease in coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning in the late evening. Thus PoPs will be ramped down from likely early evening to chance/slight chance late. Guidance is indicating lows generally in the mid to upper 70s, but thunderstorm outflows could briefly produce temperatures around 70 degrees with readings then rising back into the mid/upper 70s as light southerly flow prevails. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 am Mon...Unsettled weather expected through the period with scattered showers/storms and temps closer to climo. Tuesday through Thursday...A weak cold front will push south into eastern NC Tue, stall along the south coast and dissipate on Thu. The front will act as an additional focus mechanism for convection, and will maintain chance pops. Low level thickness values support highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday through Sunday...The mid-state surface trof reforms briefly on Friday. Upper troughing returns to the Eastern US late week and this weekend. Another front is progged to push into the area this weekend, though models having a difficult time with the timing at this point. Scattered showers and storms through the period. Low level thickness values support highs 85-90 degrees and overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 140 PM Monday...Mainly VFR through the end of the TAF period with the exception of convection through this evening. Most likely terminals for convection would be KISO and KOAJ with a tempo MVFR group here and just VCTS elsewhere through 02Z. Overnight short term computer models hint at moisture underneath an inversion, which could produce MVFR cigs like last night. However most model guidance only hints at this and without enough confidence this was left out of the TAFS. Wind southwest 5 kts through the period. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 am Mon...Continued mainly VFR Tue through Fri however will have better coverage of showers and thunderstorms from time to time resulting in a few pds of sub VFR. Weak front drops thru Tue and stalls over southern sections Wed and dissipates Thu...could see some lower cigs assoc with the front and some late night fog/stratus.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 945 AM Monday... Winds have dropped off a bit with the 9 AM observation but seas are impressive, up to 9 feet at Diamond, likely a result of stronger winds just a few hours ago. With these conditions expected to continue into the evening ahead of an approaching cold front, will make no changes to the current Small Craft Advisory headlines until later tonight when the flow is forecast to diminish to SW around 15 kt and seas are forecast to diminish below 6 ft around 8 AM Tuesday. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 am Mon...A cold front will drop thru the nrn waters later Tue into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over srn waters then dissipate Thu. Expect nrn wtrs will see a period of light onshore E to NE winds behind front Tue night into Wed while srn tier will cont with mainly S to SW winds but shld be light, becoming E Wed. As the front dissipates Thursday and the mid-state trof reforms on Friday, south to southwest winds return and remain generally 5 to 15 kts. Seas will average to 2 to 5 feet through the period. && .CLIMATE... Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon) Location Temp/Year New Bern 99/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 90/2016 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/2011 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1999 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1995 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME/EH SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...HSA MARINE...JME/EH/HSA CLIMATE...MHX

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