Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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117 FXUS62 KMHX 040300 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1000 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST, OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 998MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THROUGH WESTERN NC. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUING ENE OVERSPREADING AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY 17...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ALONG HWY 17. CONVECTIVE LINE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING OVER THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH INSTABILITY WANING. THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. DEEP GULF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING 1.5-1.8 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORY POPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE....WITH LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 50S/60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING MID MORNING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONT THU EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHING LEADS TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE. HAVE CAT POPS ALL ZONES THRU O6Z. LATER THU NIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AND RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. LOWS THU NIGHT MAINLY 35 TO 40. LINGERING SHRA CST FRI MORN WILL END BY NOON WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 30 INLAND WITH 30S BEACHES. HGTS RISE A BIT SAT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES. MDLS CONT TO DIFFER A BIT ON EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW BUT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SURF/CSTL FLOOD THREAT. PRECIP SHLD BE ALL RAIN WITH BEST CVRG NEAR CST WHERE HAVE LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING LATER SAT NIGHT AND CONT SUN...MUCH LESS CHC OF RAIN DEEP INLAND. GFS CONTS TO BE STRONGEST WITH WINDS SHOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOA 45 KTS FOR A PERIOD ALONG THE CST LATER SUN AND SUN EVENING. WL NOT GO THAT STRONG YET BUT SOLID GALES WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE POSS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE CSTL FLOODING...TOO EARLY TO PIN THIS DOWN AS DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WINDS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WL BE COOL SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. LOWS SUN NIGHT 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES. QUIETER WX MON AS LOW DEPARTS AND WEAK AFC RDG BUILDS ACROSS. DEEP UPR TRF WILL GRAD DEVELOP OVER ERN US TUE AND WED. POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CST TUE AHEAD OF THIS TRF BUT MDLS SUGGEST BULK OF THIS WILL OCCUR N OF REGION SO SLIGHT/CHC TO CHC TUE AND DRY WED. WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 630 PM WED...MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLY FLOW BECOMING N/NE. EXPECT PRED IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CEILINGS THU. LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THRU THU EVENING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END FROM W TO E LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FRI THRU SAT. WILL HAVE SOME GUSTY N WINDS FRI. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN ESPCLY CSTL SITES WITH LIKELY PDS OF SUB VFR...GUSTY N WINDS ALSO EXPECTED SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL END LATER SUN NIGHT AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN FOR MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 10 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH SEAS 5-10FT. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL PERSIST 5 TO 8FT NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS TO 6 TO 10 FT SOUTH....WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTEND AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT FOR THE SOUNDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON THE PAMLICO. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...UNFAVORABLE BOATING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS POSS FRI AND AGAIN SUN/SUN NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ON FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE CST THU NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FRI. PERIOD OF STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FRI ESPCLY CSTL WTRS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT MOST OF SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. SFC LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE CST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. MDLS CONT TO VARY ON TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW BUT ALL SHOW PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS BY EARLY SUN THAT CONT INTO SUN NIGHT. SOLID GALES LOOK LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS...ESPCLY IF STRONGER GFS CORRECT. WINDS WL QUICKLY DIMINISH MON AS THE LOW DEPARTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET LATE THU NIGHT AND PEAK 7 TO 11 FEET OUTER WTRS FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO MAINLY BELOW 6 FT SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD LATE SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY PEAK 12 TO 17 FEET OUTER WTRS SUN EVENING. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON WITH LINGERING BACKSWELL. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-156-158. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM/CQD NEAR TERM...BM/CQD SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...CQD/RF MARINE...BM/CQD/RF

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