Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 200917 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 417 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 235 AM SAT...DAMPENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WEAK SFC LOW FORMING TO THE SE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MDLS CONT TO SHOW BULK OF RAIN OVER SRN TIER WITH LITTLE TO THE N WILL CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS N TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY SRN TIER. EVEN ACROSS SRN TIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 235 AM SAT...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST SMALL POP SRN CST EARLY THEN DRY. WILL CONT TO HAVE GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPCLY CST. SHLD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS FOR LOWS MAINLY 30 TO 35 INLAND WITH UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FL/GA/SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LOW IS ILL-DEFINED AND WEAK WITH CONSENSUS OF AROUND 1015 MB LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY MON EVENING. MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING FORECAST POPS/TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY AND COOLER THEN INCREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LIKELIES LATE WITH MILD TEMPS MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE TEMP GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS AS OF LATE SO HEDGED CLOSER TO GFS MOS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING NEAR 1370 METERS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE COAST TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN VICINITY OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET STREAK...AND LARGE SCALE OMEGA/FRONTOGENSIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES HOLDING IN THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WINGS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THE COLUMN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD INTO THE 1380-1390 METER RANGE...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST YIELDING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY...MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1235 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES. BEST CHC OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LATE MORN THRU AFTN OVER SRN SITES HOWEVER SHLD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS MUCH. CIGS SHLD MAINLY HOLD ABOVE 3000 FT THIS AFTN HOWEVER DID AND TEMPO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY AT OAJ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS SHLD CONT AS PRECIP ENDS SRN TIER HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR CIGS. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND SO SOME LOWER CIGS POSS...ESPCLY CLOSER TO CST BUT WILL KEEP IN VFR RANGE FOR NOW. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM SAT...WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE SE TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E TONIGHT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ALONG THE CST WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N...THIS WILL LEAD TO N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. WITH THE LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTING E TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONT AT 10 TO 15 KTS...HIGHEST SOUTH. SEAS WILL CONT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...HOWEVER OCNL 4 FOOTER POSS OVER THE OUTER WTRS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/... AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING AND PEAKING AT 6-10 FT WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...THUS WILL USE A BLEND FOR WINDS MID WEEK. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...DAG/TL AVIATION...RF/DAG MARINE...RF/DAG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.