Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 280212 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1012 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...PLEASANT EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. LOW LEVELS HAVE DECOUPLED INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATE REDUCED VISIBILITY HAS BEEN NOTED INLAND AND THE TREND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND SOUNDING PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CONTINUES SFC AND ALOFT BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STARTS THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH SYSTEM MOVING IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST BRINGING ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF TIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER VORT LOBE SWINGS THROUGH. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS LOW OVER LAND BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH DECOUPLING EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE FLOW. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTH ALONG IT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PERIODS OF RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VFR AREA-WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE SCA ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL 06Z WITH SEAS STILL AROUND 6FT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN...5-6FT CENTRAL AND 4-5FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-20KTS. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AS IT PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN TO 5-15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DIAMOND SHOALS BUUY CONTINUES TO REPORT 6 FT SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA N OF OREGON INLET THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 3-5 FT EXPECTED SUNDAY EXCEPT 2-3 FT NEARSHORE ACROSS ONSLOW BAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SAT...NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. GRADIENT SUPPORTS SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AND MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING WINDS OVER THE WATERS AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET NORTH OF THE LOW. AS LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY...WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. LOW APPEARS TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND POSSIBLE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...BTC/SK/LEP SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/BTC/SK MARINE...CGG/SK/LEP

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