Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KMHX 200606
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
206 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017
Low pressure just off the Carolina coast will dissipate
tonight. A trof of low pressure will develop along the coastal
plain Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move down from the
north and become stationary across the area Saturday, then lift
back north as a warm front Sunday. A cold front will move
through from the west Sunday night. High pressure will gradually
build in from the northwest early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 920 PM Wed...Shra inland have ended so removed slight
pop. Radar show a few shra approaching srn cstl wtrs so added
slight chc shra these wtrs with poss a few brushing close to OBX
late tonight. Clouds have diminished a bit this evening with
decent breaks...this may help lead to some patchy fog as winds
go light to calm. No changes to lows with lower 60s inland to
mid/upr 60s cst.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 345 pm Wed...After low dissipates, leeside trof develops
along the coastal plain in the afternoon. Made no change in
current PoPs with 20-30 PoPs across inland areas in the
afternoon. Southwest winds will push afternoon highs into the
mid 80s generally west of Highway 17 with upper 70s to lower 80s
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...
Friday and Saturday...SW flow continues Friday and will
increase throughout the day as a cold front approaches from the
NW. An isolated sea breeze shower is possible, but the main
shower and thunderstorm activity, albeit scattered, will hold
off until later in the evening. Front is likely to stall
overnight Friday in the vicinity of the US 64 corridor. Front
will then lift back north Saturday night. Shower/thunderstorm
chances continue Saturday as well, before the front moves
further north. High temps on Friday will be quite warm, with
maxes in the upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday, with upper 70s
expected north of the stalled front, and mid 80s expected over
the southern coastal plain.
Sunday and Monday...Deep and elongated upper trough approaches from
the NW Sunday. However, most of the upper level energy dives south
over the Gulf Coast, and a cut off upper level low forms off the
coast of Florida. That being said there is still some favorable
dynamics over Eastern NC to support multicell to hybrid supercell
storm types. Will continue to watch this as some strong to severe
storms are possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Cold front
will pass through overnight Sunday, with N winds building in after
the frontal passage. Showers will slowly taper off Monday from west
to east. This will be a fairly wet period with 1 to 2 inches of rain
expected. High temps will range from the upper 70s to low 80s
Sunday, and upper 60s to low 70s Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday...NNE flow continues Tuesday with coastal
showers still hanging around. High temps will be cool again, maybe a
degree or two cooler than Monday. Temps start to rebound again
Wednesday as most of the showers will be along or off the coast.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Short Term /through 06z Friday/
As of 130 AM Thursday...Somewhat of a low confidence forecast
through morning hours as models appear to be overdone with cloud
cover, indicating Mean 1000-500 MB RH of 70-90% over area at 06Z
but obs/satellite show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Have
leaned to a climo/pattern recognition forecast which is
generally in line with previous forecast, indicating current VFR
conditions persisting next 1-2 hours followed by MVFR CIGs
developing given light onshore flow. Period of 3-5 SM vsbys with
fog likely all TAF sites as well, and included a TEMPO period of
IFR conditions at KOAJ and KISO where lower conditions most
probable. Conditions becoming VFR 12Z-14Z with CU/SCU most of
day. Scattered convective possible in climo favored sea breeze
zone but some meso models have trended drier. Will include VCSH
during afternoon at just KEWN and KOAJ due to uncertainty of
TSRA development at this time.
Long Term /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
As 345 PM Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions expected through
Saturday night when widespread showers and thunderstorms may
cause IFR conditions at times through Sunday. Some brief IFR
conditions are also possible Friday as scattered thunderstorms
move through the airspace.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Thu/
As of 920 PM Wed...Seas at Diamond Shoals buoy finally have
dropped below 6 feet so will drop SCA central wtrs.
Prev disc... Weak low off the NC/SC coast will dissipate
overnight. High pressure centered in the offshore waters will be
the main feature for Thursday. Winds north of Cape Hatteras
will remain southerly, while winds to the south will veer from
southeast tonight to southwest Thursday. Loose pressure gradient
will keep winds speeds low, mainly 5-10 knots. Seas will
average 2-4 feet.
Long Term /Friday through Sunday/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...SW winds will generally be 15 to 20
knots on Friday with 3-5 ft seas. Some 6 foot seas are possible
later in the afternoon across the central waters. Small craft
conditions are likely later Friday night across the central
waters as winds become 20-25 knots with 5-6 foot seas. Winds and
seas relax some on Saturday, becoming WSW 10-15 knots and 3-5
ft. Winds and seas increase again Sunday turning SW again 20-25
knots with seas 5-8 ft.