Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 242046 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 346 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PULL WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS QUICKLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE COVERAGE BEST NORTHERN AREAS. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY THIS EVENING. CAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. CAA CONTINUES BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 2 PM SAT...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH COULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTH LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1320-1330M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT TROF DIVES SE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT CLASSIC MILLER B TYPE SFC PATTERN AS ASSOCD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN REFORMS OFF THE NC COAST ON MONDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANFERS TO THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE SO KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT, INDICATE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND CUD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR OCCURENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION, BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL COMES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF HEADS THRU THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT MOST FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL AGAIN ENSUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 1 PM SAT...CEILING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ONCE THE TROF CROSSES...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL HELP CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...PREVENTING ANY OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR INTERVALS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CAA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. W WINDS START OUT AROUND 10-20 KT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO SLY LATE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 TO 9 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 13 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW 6 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. NWPS IS SLOWER TO BRING SEAS DOWN AND WILL USE A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III AND NWPS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND THE ENSUING COLD AIR SURGE WILL BUMP UP WINDS INTO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...BTC/SK MARINE...BTC/SK

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