Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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600 FXUS62 KMHX 172321 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 621 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually move offshore late tonight and Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the area early Sunday. High pressure will be over the area Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night followed by high pressure for mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 620 PM Friday...High pressure will crest over the area this evening, then begin to move offshore very late tonight. Other than some occasional Cirrus clouds passing through, the high will continue to produce mostly clear skies and light winds. Resultant radiational cooling will lead to lows again the mid 30s inland along with a threat for frost. Lows along the coast will be around 40 as winds have decoupled there as well. We have issued a Frost Advisory for areas to the north that did not yet have a killing freeze and where temps will be in the mid 30s. Very shallow patchy fog will also be possible but is not expected to be widespread enough to create travel issues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 4 PM Friday...The low-level flow becomes Southwest on Saturday leading to a big warmup as high temperatures will be well into the 60s with a few spots reaching 70 degrees Saturday afternoon ahead of strong oncoming cold front. Latest ARW shows some showers just offshore Saturday afternoon, but the area should mostly remain dry as the bulk of any precipitation holds off until later on Saturday night with just an increase in mid clouds during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Fri...A cold front will bring showers and strong winds to Eastern NC late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in Monday and Tuesday, and then an offshore trough develops and may bring showers to coastal sections Wednesday. Thanksgiving looks to be mostly dry with high pressure building in again. Saturday and Sunday...High pressure off the coast will keep most of Saturday dry. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the cold front under strengthening SW flow. High temps will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. The cold front is expected to cross Eastern NC Sunday morning, with rain showers breaking out ahead of it inland after midnight Saturday night, and lasting through Sunday morning along the coast. There is finally good agreement between the different forecast models, pushing the front off the coast early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be light, mainly 0.10" or less in most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the 50s, as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection. Highs on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising a few degrees from the morning lows behind the cold front. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs Monday will range from the low to mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach the low 60s. Low temps will be at or below freezing inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast. Some frost will be possible for parts of coastal counties where the growing season is still ongoing, with the best chances on Tuesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday...An offshore trough will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and may bring showers to coastal sections of Eastern NC. Have slight chance PoPs east of HWY 17. With the latest model suite, Thanksgiving looks drier as the coastal trough pushes further out to sea, and then high pressure moves in. High temps will be in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday, and then the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday. Low temps both days will range from the low 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday/... As of 620 PM Friday...Mostly clear skies with mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Can`t rule out patchy shallow fog especially vicinity of KPGV overnight. Increasing and lowering clouds are expected Saturday with ceilings in the VFR range. Light winds tonight will become SW and increase and become gusty Saturday afternoon. Long Term /Saturday evening through Wednesday/... As of 245 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Then a strong cold front will enter the airspace, and could produce a period of sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions then return through Tuesday as high pressure builds back over the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/... As of 620 PM Friday...Winds and seas will continue to briefly diminish overnight as high pressure builds over the waters. Light northerly winds this evening will veer to the S/SW toward morning as the high center moves east of the waters. Seas should generally run 3-5 feet tonight. SW winds will increase on Saturday afternoon ahead of a approaching strong cold front, with 15-20 knot winds likely by later in the afternoon and seas gradually building to near 6 feet by evening. Long Term /Saturday evening through Wednesday/... As of 4 PM Friday...Have initiated a Gale Warning for the Coastal Waters and Pamlico Sound starting Saturday evening with a Small Craft Advisory for the Albemarle Sound and inland rivers starting at the same time. These headlines will continue through late Sunday. Previous Discussion...Winds on Saturday will quickly increase to SW 15-20 kts by mid morning. 20-25 kt winds are expected by the afternoon, with winds increasing still overnight. SW winds 30-35 kts are expected across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound early Sunday morning, and as a result have issued a Gale Watch for these waters. Elsewhere, strong Small Craft conditions are likely. As the cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning, winds will weaken slightly and shift to NW 25-30 kts. Gales should end by late morning, with winds becoming 20-25 kts by late afternoon. Winds on Monday morning will be NNW 15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming SSE 5-10 kts. Seas will initially be 2-4 ft across the coastal waters Saturday morning, before building Saturday afternoon to 4-7 ft, and then 8-13 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening, then subside to 3-5 ft Monday, then 2-3 ft Monday night and Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ045>047-081. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ130-131-136-137. Gale Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135- 150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC NEAR TERM...JME/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...JME/CTC/SGK MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/SGK

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