Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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570 FXUS62 KMHX 221351 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 951 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A period of unsettled weather is expected Monday through Thursday as several low pressure areas move through the region. High pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 950 am Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows 1006mb low over southern Canada and the Great Lakes this morning, with attendant cold front moving through the Appalachians. Surface cold front over the mountains this morning will make only slow progress today, reaching the western piedmont this afternoon. Models show well-defined shortwave passing to the northwest this afternoon, where most of the convection will be. Latest radar imagery shows area of showers moving through NE NC this morning, with southern portion area of showers weakening. Adjusted pops slightly based on radar trends and high res guidance. Scattered showers and tstms expected to redevelop this afternoon, with best chances inland mainly along and west of Hwy 17...coinciding with deeper moisture and better forcing. Low level thickness values and S/SW flow support highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 310 am Mon...Similar conditions from this afternoon continue into the late evening. After midnight an increase in PoPs is seen as strong low pressure lifts northeast along the front from Alabama to western South Carolina accompanied by a broad low- level theta-e ridge spreading into the forecast area. Bumped up PoPs to likely with chance remaining over the far northern counties. Lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 am Mon...Still on track for an unsettled week with periods of rain and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, followed by much drier weather toward the end of the week and weekend. On Tuesday an area of low pressure will track to our west across central North Carolina along a stationary front. Ahead of the front the atmosphere will be primed for heavy rain. Precipitable water (PWATS) remain around 2 inches, with a tall skinny cape and warm cloud depths above 12,000 feet. These values are similar to what the day shift pointed out from yesterday, so we will continue to mention moderate rain in the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night. WPC has our area in a marginal risk for flash flooding, but the higher threat for more organized heavy rains may end up just west of our area across central NC, with the location of the stationary front. The position of the front will have to be carefully watched as it will be along and near this boundary that will likely experience the most organized rains. 0-6 KM bulk shear values of around 30 kts would support a chance of isolated severe weather but heavy rain potential appears to be bigger threat for Tuesday/Tuesday night. We may see a brief break in the rain for a good chunk of Wednesday as both the GFS and Canadian now show the front mentioned above sliding south of our area with a bubble of high pressure building in. This break will last longest over the far northeast, and shortest over the south. Just as quickly though the front lifts back north as a warm front Thursday evening. After drying out a bit Wednesday morning, PWATS again climb toward 2 inches, with a tall skinny cape and warm cloud depths above 10,000 feet supporting the potential again for localized heavier rains. While the rainfall parameters just mentioned are a tad lower than what we expect Tuesday, the severe weather parameters are higher. 0-6 KM Shear values Wednesday night approach 50 kts, so if we have enough instability overnight severe weather can`t be ruled out. Organized rains will move off the coast early Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Showers though will linger through the afternoon with an H5 trof and an embedded short wave not moving through our area until 0Z Friday. Continued with a lower chance for rain through Thursday evening. More pronounced dry weather builds in Friday into Saturday, with high pressure moving across our area. Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Saturday night into Sunday as a series of weak upper level disturbances move our way in the northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 7 am Mon...Unsettled weather will be the rule in the short term. The area will be south of a warm front and west of a cold front. Scattered MVFR ceilings this morning will become VFR at all 4 terminals over the next few hours. However, sub- VFR vsbys forecast in scattered showers and thunderstorms today into this evening, becoming more numerous after midnight. MVFR ceilings around 2500 ft return after midnight. Surface winds will be light south southwest through the period. Long Term /Tue through Fri/ As of 310 am Mon...Sub-VFR weather likely in periods of heavier rain and thunderstorms Tuesday through early Thursday morning. A return to VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday with drier weather building across the terminals. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through tonight/... As of 950 am Mon...Latest obs show SE/S winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Winds become more S/SW this afternoon increasing to 10-15 kt. In the short term, the marine area will be south of a warm front and east of a cold front. Flow will be south to southwest, 5-10 knots on the rivers and 5-15 knots on the coastal waters. Long Term /Tue through Fri/... As of 310 am Mon... Small craft conditions likely Tuesday afternoon and night followed by a lull Wednesday, before small craft conditions again becoming likely Wednesday night through early Friday. Southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 Tuesday afternoon with waves building to 4 to 8 feet, with small craft advisories likely most of the coastal waters. Winds diminish Wednesday but seas may remain near 6 feet especially the outer waters. Southwest winds increase again over the waters Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. Winds will remain 20-25 Wednesday night into Thursday as they shift from southwest to northwest by Thursday evening behind a cold front. Seas once again build to 4 to 7 feet but linger into Friday. More tranquil weather is expected over the waters Saturday with northwest winds under 10 kts and seas 2 to 3 feet.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...EH/HSA MARINE...EH/CQD/HSA

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