Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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083 FXUS62 KMHX 212237 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 637 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area through Friday. Inland trough/offshore high pressure pattern will return Saturday and persist into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 635 PM Thu...Isolated convection has dissipated. Will send out updated zones shortly. No other changes made. Latest sfc analysis show 1024mb high pressure center over WV. Expect...clear skies as high pressure will dominate the region with light to calm winds. Could see some areas of fog develop again as a result. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Thu...Upper level ridge will build east from the southern plains with relatively warm and dry conditions, as sfc high pressure persist over the region. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday...Models are still in strong agreement with the pattern across the southern half of the country through the extended period. Our area will remain under the influence of a strong upper ridge bringing a very hot, but typical summer pattern for our area. The forecast trend was for a slight increase in the chance of precipitation through the extended, mostly a typical summer diurnal convection regime. The better chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to come around mid to late next week with an increasing chance of weak shortwaves moving across the area and a weak boundary to our north that could dip down across the area. Favored a solution that kept the boundary to our north through the period. Friday Night through Saturday night...A strong upper level ridge will build east from the southern Plains with hot and relatively dry conditions through late Saturday. Strong subsidence should keep precip to a minimum and will continue to forecast mostly dry conditions through the period. The NAM remains bullish with weak shortwave energy moving across the area late Saturday which when combined with a hot and unstable airmass, may lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. For this reason, kept the slight chance of afternoon convection along the sea breeze on Saturday. With upper heights building and the low- level flow becoming SW with a strong Bermuda surface ridge building offshore, high temps are expected in the mid 90s inland on Saturday. Dewpoints also return to the mid 70s by Saturday which may produce heat index values above 105 degrees during the afternoon, possibly warranting Heat Advisories. The same pattern will continue into Sunday which will be even hotter, with highs in the mid/upper 90s well inland with heat index values around 105-109 degrees. Will continue to highlight heat potential in HWO. The chance of sea breeze convection on Sunday will be just a bit higher given moisture and instability. Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge gradually breaks down a bit into early next week, allowing more upper level energy to dive south across the region. Coupled with a hot, unstable airmass, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases close to climatology by Monday and Tuesday and perhaps a bit above climo by Wednesday into Thursday. Temps will remain in the low to mid 90s through the period with heat index values just over 100. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short term /through 18z Friday/... As of 635 PM Thu...High confidence of VFR conditions will persist for the TAF period. Winds will be calm overnight. Conditions are conducive for fog/stratus development overnight as skies will be clear with calm winds. Expect patchy fog and stratus with IFR conditions possible. Fog/stratus should lift between 12-14z tomorrow morning, then becoming VFR under light and variable winds. Long Term /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 315 PM Thursday...Strong mid-level ridging will build east across the region through Saturday with VFR conditions and minimal shower activity prevailing. Sunday through Tuesday the upper ridge breaks down a bit with a return of a chance of afternoon and evening convection and brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 635 PM Thu...Latest buoy obs are showing light E winds with seas 2-3 ft. Good boating conditions will continue through tomorrow. E winds at or below 10 knots and gradually veer tonight...becoming southerly after midnight. Increased SE swell energy will keep seas at 2-3 feet...and could see some 4 foot seas develop on the outer central and southern waters through tonight. Long Term /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 315 PM Thursday...High pressure strengthens offshore through the weekend into early next week. SW winds around 10-15 KT will prevail Friday night through Tuesday. Winds could become slightly stronger, to around 20 KT, during the late afternoon and evening hours each day, when the pressure gradient between the Piedmont thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore are strongest. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft through the period. Favored the local NWPS wave guidance over the Wave Watch except in the first part of the extended period where it was blended to better tie in with the short term forecast where NWPS appeared slightly overdone. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...HSA/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...HSA/BM/RSB MARINE...HSA/BM/RSB

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