Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 190645 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX ONCE AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 200 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING A CROSS-OVER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FORECAST MINS. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING NE-E FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/JME AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK

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