Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 021052 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 652 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER OH WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL TOUGH TO TIME THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SB CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S -4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 80S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7 WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 650 AM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH EWN/PGV AT VFR AND OAJ/ISO AT IFR/LIFR...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH 13Z BECOMING PRED VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT. INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC/SK AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD

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