Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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996 FXUS62 KMHX 221402 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1002 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue off the Southeast U.S. coast through mid week while a cold front remains stalled to the north through Thursday. The front finally pushes through the region Friday. Low pressure will develop south of the area this weekend as high pressure builds to the north. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
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As of 10 AM Wednesday...Only minor adjustments to the near term forecast this morning, mainly to account for changes with hourly wx elements of temps/dewpoints. Gusty SW winds continue across Eastern NC this morning, especially along the central and southern coast, due to a slightly better pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and a frontal boundary north of the area. The pressure gradient should relax some today as the shortwave moves east of the region. Most models generally keeping dry conditions much of the day with NW flow aloft and limited forcing, however an unstable airmass will be in place and cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as the CMC and NSSL WRF are suggesting but keeping PoPs below 15 percent this afternoon. A mid level disturbance associated with an upstream MCS across the Mid-West will approach the region late in the period but think most convection will hold off until the evening hours. Low level thicknesses increase to around 1420-1430 meters supporting maximum temps in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast/OBX.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 730 AM Wednesday...A better chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening as shortwave energy assoc with an upstream MCS moves trough NW flow aloft. Most models bring a line of convection into the region this evening and have chance PoPs across much of the region. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe with a moderately unstable airmass and 30-35kt of bulk shear in place. Expect most convection to wane after midnight as instability decreases but some models keep a few showers around late. SW flow and cloud cover will keep mild temps overnight with lows in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM Wednesday, rain chances will increase for Thursday and Friday before high pressure brings a return to drier conditions for the weekend. Thursday through Saturday...Thursday will be quite warm with deep SW/W flow and 850 mb temperatures at or above 20C late in the day. This will lead to high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s coast with the exception being mid 80s over the southern Outer Banks. Upper forcing will be weak on Thursday but with high surface-based instability (CAPE 2000-3000 J/kg, LI`s -6 to -8), scattered thunderstorms could form inland and have small chances continuing. As cold front pushes into the region from the north Thursday night and Friday morning, coverage of convection will increase and have high chance PoPs in the forecast with the activity working from north to south during Thursday night into early Friday. With more widespread precipitation as the front sinks south, temperatures Friday will be some 6-8 degrees cooler. Per trends from previous forecasts, will keep a good chance of precipitation in the forecast Friday night, especially southern areas and maintain a lingering low PoP Saturday as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary to our south. Sunday through Monday...High pressure at the surface will build down the east coast as a mid-level ridge builds east. Dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with near seasonable temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints. Tuesday...An approaching cold front along with some mid-level shortwave energy will lead to a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short term /Through 12Z Thursday/... As of 730 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period. Generally expect dry conditions much of the day with NW flow aloft and little forcing but shortwave energy will approach late in the afternoon and evening hours bringing a better chance of convection which could briefly bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Pressure gradients begin to relax this morning and do not expect winds to be as gusty today but could see gusts to around 15 kt through mid morning. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ As of 350 AM Wednesday, Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous from late Thursday through Friday and periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible. Some showers may affect the KEWN/KOAJ TAF sites on Saturday as low pressure rides along a frontal boundary to our south. VFR conditions should prevail Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short term /Through Tonight/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Latest surface and buoy observations continue to show SW winds 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt across the central/southern waters with seas around 4-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 2-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet. The pressure gradient should relax as the day progresses allowing winds and seas to diminish through the day. Expect SW winds to diminish to around 10-20 kt this afternoon and continuing in this range tonight. The strongest winds will be over the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas are expected to subside below 6 ft this afternoon and continue around 3-5 ft through tonight. Made only minor adjustment to extend the SCA across the central and southern waters a couple hours this afternoon as wave models a bit underdone with seas this morning. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ As of 350 AM Wednesday, Small craft advisory conditions are expected from midday hours on Thursday through Friday as strong SW gradient develops ahead of cold front. Will likely see 20-25 knot winds with gusts to 30 knots on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with seas as high as 6 to 7 feet. Behind the front, E/SE winds will drop off to 10-15 knots with seas 2-5 feet for Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK/DAG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/SK MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG

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