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000
FXUS63 KMKX 170831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
5000 FEET OR SO WAS KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. ONLY SAW A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND
APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING THESE SHOWERS
ALONG. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MORNING.
THUS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO BECOME BROKEN AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED AS
THE DAY GOES ON...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...THOUGH COULD STILL END UP BEING LESS CLOUDY THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR NOW. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BUT
COULD GET COLDER IF CLOUDS MOVE OUT.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE 50S...WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST SO PLAN ON A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. IN SOUTHERN
WI...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT/PHASE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE AND DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. A BAND OF DEEP AND SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND THERE
IS A GENERAL SLOWING TREND AMONGST ALL THE MODELS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH...GIVE OR TAKE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE SHOULD SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS THE TIME THAT THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN HOLD OFF FOR
SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 70 FOR HIGHS. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANGING ONTO PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO MONDAY
NOW...WITH DECREASING CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND GRADUALLY DROP.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S OR EVEN COLDER.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS UNTIL 12Z TO 13Z
THURSDAY...AS 45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

VFR CEILINGS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MADISON THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT TONIGHT...LEFT SCATTERED WORDING
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
VEER SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW 22 KNOTS BY 18Z
THURSDAY. HIGH WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY 18Z AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE CRESTING...AND ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER
NEAR BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
CRESTING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCK RIVER LOCATIONS WILL CREST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS
HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC