Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 040207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING
SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL WI. MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD


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