758
FXUS63 KMQT 151630
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1230 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry weather continues today ahead of rain chances
  returning tonight.

- Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms return Thursday and
  continue into Friday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
  expected late this weekend and again by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Sprawling high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will ensure one
more pleasant, dry, and sunny spring day. Temperatures are starting
off quite chilly, with most of the area hovering in the lower to mid
30s. However, some pockets of even cooler temperatures are to be
found across the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties.
There, temperatures have dropped into the 20s!

Heading into the daytime hours, temperatures recover nicely, peaking
well into the 60s and even lower 70s across most of the interior UP.
Temperatures come in cooler across the northern UP, especially
closer to Superior, where we may struggle even to crack the mid 50s.
Meanwhile, as mixing deepens, dewpoints should drop again into the
afternoon hours with values in the upper 20s expected across much of
the interior UP. This will yield RH in the lower 20s across most of
the UP. Light easterly winds should mitigate fire weather concerns,
but will note that a potential for lake breeze development exists
off of both Superior and Lake Michigan, which could result in a
quick shift in wind direction.

Tonight, expect an increase in clouds as a shortwave currently over
the Plains begins to swing into the Upper Midwest. Weak WAA ahead of
this will touch off our next chance for rain showers across the far
western UP after midnight, but even this timing may be ambitious
with plenty of dry air to overcome. Otherwise, expect temperatures
to range in the 30s across most of the area, apart from the far
western UP. There, cloudy skies and warmer air working in should
help to keep temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The dry weather comes to an end Thursday as a low pressure moves
into western Lake Superior throughout the day. As the shortwave low
moves in, expect showers and possibly (15% chance) a few embedded
thunderstorms to move their way eastward throughout the daylight
hours. In addition, we could see some convection fire back up over
the western U.P. during the afternoon hours as the cold front of the
low begins to move into the west. With CAPE being low and cloud
cover keeping low-level lapse rates much to be desired, no severe
weather is expected Thursday into Thursday night. As the cold front
of the shortwave low pushes through the rest of the U.P. Thursday
night, expect the rainfall to generally end from west to east behind
the front`s passage, save for maybe some isolated light rain
showers. Overall, don`t expect much in the way of rainfall from this
shortwave; expect generally around a tenth of an inch across most of
the area, with some spots seeing closer to a quarter to maybe
locally half an inch, while others only see a trace. This will be
because of the convective nature of the precipitation; places that
see the center of convective cells will likely receive more
rainfall, whereas those who don`t will likely see less. As weak high
pressure ridging sets back up over Lake Superior Friday, drier
conditions move across the area, with the last of the rain showers
ending in the far east. The drier conditions remain across the U.P.
until late Saturday afternoon at the earliest as high pressure
ridging tries to stubbornly hold on over Lake Superior.

While there is more uncertainty in the rest of the extended
forecast, the general story remains fairly the same among the
different model suites: a dry warm front moves over the U.P. Friday
night into Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night/Sunday. The warmest temperatures of the
extended period are expected Saturday, with highs getting into the
80s over some of the interior west spots. Expect the rainfall with
the passage of the cold front; while rainfall amounts look to be
fairly light according to the LREF, we will likely (60-70% chance)
generally see a tenth or two of liquid across the area before the
rainfall ends. Behind the cold front, expect a reprieve from the
rainfall as high pressure ridging moves back over the area yet again
Sunday/Monday. The dry weather looks to continue until the middle of
next week when a low pressure lifting off of the Colorado Rockies
heads to the Great Lakes region and brings additional rainfall to
the area. That being said, there is some more doubt in this part of
the forecast as the most recent run of the European model has
trended the low too far to the south to affect us. Looking at the
end of the extended period and beyond, it appears that the unsettled
weather pattern continues through to the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period. IWD
will have some showers coming in late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less this morning give way to northeast
winds of 20 to 25 knots over the far western lake this afternoon as
a low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. The higher winds
continue until late tonight due to the pressure gradient between the
approaching low and the high pressure over Lake Superior weakening
(the high begins leaving the lake). Light winds of generally 20
knots or less remain over the lake as stable conditions continue
through the weekend into next week. That being said, as a cold front
moves through Saturday into Sunday, we could (15% chance) see some
thunderstorms traverse the lake from west to east with the front.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP