Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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277
FXUS63 KMQT 061810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KEC



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