Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






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