Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 011144
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF EXTENDING
FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ARE EMBEDDED
IN THIS TROF THAT WL BE OF CONCERN FOR THE FCST. THE FIRST IS MOVING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER CLD
TOPS ARE CONFINED TO ONTARIO...SOME LOCATIONS IN MN WITHIN THE
RELATIVELY POORLY DEFINED COMMA TAIL ARE PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
SN/FLURRIES. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE PCPN/ENHANCED CLDS IS
ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280K SFC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR PER THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS.
MID CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV HAVE INVADED THE CWA...LIMITING
THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP IN THE STEADY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF MOVING THRU MN. SOME LIGHT SN HAS ALSO
DVLPD OVER THE ERN CWA WITH SSW FLOW OFF LK MI. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A SECOND SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD FM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT SN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TWO SHRTWVS AS WELL AS LES POTENTIAL TNGT IN THE CAA FOLLOWING THESE
DISTURBANCES.

TODAY...FIRST SHRTWV IS FCST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN LK SUP THIS
MRNG. MAINTAINED SOME LO CHC POPS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE W AND N
PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK AND AREA OF COLDER CLD
TOPS/HIER H85-5 RH. THERE WL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME SN THIS AFTN
OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME SHARPER
PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV WL
ARRIVE COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE SFC TROF. ALTHOUGH WRN LK SUP REMAINS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEPER MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE
SECOND SHRTWV AND COLDER AIR /H85 TEMPS FALLING NEAR -16C BY 00Z
MON/ IN THE WNW H925 FLOW BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING ABOUT A CHC FOR
SOME SN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W AS WELL. WITH A SW
VEERING W FLOW DVLPG THIS AFTN...EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS IN THE
25 TO 30 RANGE OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREA OF THE CENTRAL...WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL.

TNGT...NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR...WITH TEMPS WITHIN TRAILING H85
THERMAL TROF FCST AS LO AS -18C...FOLLOWING THE EXITING SFC TROF WL
RESULT IN SOME LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS
DESPITE THE OVERALL ICE COVER. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SN SHOWERS WL
BE E OF MARQUETTE WITH A LONGER FETCH LENGTH OVER THE MAINLY ICE
COVERED LK. ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES RDG
MOVING INTO MN AND SHARPLY LOWERING INVRN AOB 3K FT AGL ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING VIGOROUS DNVA/06Z-12Z H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 100M AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS SHOULD END THE LES
OVER THE W LATE. LLVL DRYING/CLRG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP AT LEAST
CLOSE TO ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SFC HI
PRES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STEADY WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE U.P. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH MODERATING UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS WINDS
BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
AREAS TO SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS IS STILL
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE
WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MORE MOIST...SLIGHTLY WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
CONUS. ANOTHER...STRONGER WAVE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND WORK TOWARD THE JAMES BAY AREA. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE U.P. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. AT
THE ONSET LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE DEPICTING SLOWLY INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AT THE ONSET AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE NOT EXACTLY
NORMAL TO THE PRESSURE PLOTTED ON THE 300K ISOSURFACE AND THE MAIN
SYSTEM FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS AGREE WITH QPF
BEING PAINTED OUT ACROSS THESE AREAS TO THE POINT THAT LIKELY POPS
ARE IN ORDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSH INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 850-300MB Q-DIV
ALONG WITH RH THROUGH THAT LAYER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE PAINTING
AROUND 0.3 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. AND AROUND
0.15 TO 0.20 ACROSS THE WEST HALF. THIS...ALONG WITH SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-18:1 WOULD GIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WEST HALF WITH AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE
EAST HALF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CHECK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...AT A MINIMUM ADVISORY
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS AGREE ON AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BROAD TROUGHING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY PLACES SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOW TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND ONLY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P...MAINLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN...THE
EXACT LOCATION ALONG WITH INTENSITY WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO ANY
BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS
BASED SOLELY ON WIND WOULD BE FOR THE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WIND
FAVORED SNOW BELTS WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -20C TO-25C
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZE SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL AS THE DGZ BECOMES VERY SHALLOW AND LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW CHANCE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...DUE
AGAIN TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE U.P. FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY TURN WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...ENDING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE U.P.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES...WHICH ARE RIGHT AROUND 30
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE WEAK TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF THAT IS TAPPING A BIT
MORE LLVL MSTR WL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MRNG INTO THE
AFTN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE
RETURNS CONDITIONS TO VFR IN THE AFTN. AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TNGT
BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FROPA...MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHSN
WL RETURN TO THE CMX AND IWD LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE
MOISTENING WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY WNW FLOW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF
THIS FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THERE. ENUF DRY
AIR AHEAD OF A HI PRES RDG WL LIKELY BRING CLRG/VFR WX TO IWD LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO GALES EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WSW WINDS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY OVER WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WITH NW WINDS TO 30 KTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR IN
WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KTS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ALTER THE COVERAGE OF
THE ICE SOMEWHAT ON LK SUPERIOR...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE HIGHER
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS DESPITE SOME WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



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