Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 292320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROUGH W...RIDGE E. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY INITIALLY IS THE CU OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS S CENTRAL AND E. THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS CROSSED WFO MQT...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS SAW...AND STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR E UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LAKE MI
BREEZE SHIFTING IN.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA. THE
500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO FALL AOB 5KTS INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND CU QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SECTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL END
UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT
TODAY...AS 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C THIS AFTERNOON JUMP TO 19-23C BY
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 1-1.24IN...WITH
AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO 45-60 PERCENT SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR TO HIGH MVFR FOG COULD TRY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS SUNDAY OVER
MAINLY N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR ISLE ROYALE/.

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



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