Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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292
FXUS63 KMQT 262323
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Mostly sunny skies across Upr Michigan this aftn in wake of the
front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. West winds
are breezy and should reach around advy levels this evening on the
Keweenaw as RAP and HRRR soundings show mixed layer building to
depth that will tap into winds from 38-43 kts. This matches up with
the 40 kts at h925 seen on the 12z INL sounding. Pressure rise also
moving in late this aftn should help boost winds. Stronger winds
will end btwn 00z-02z.

Upper level low currently over northern Ontario moves to near James
Bay by 12z Monday. Stronger shortwave rotating around the upper low
is bringing widespread clouds and some showers, especially across
southern Manitoba into parts of northern Ontario. Expect this
shortwave to settle across Upr Michigan later tonight with h85
thermal trough following on Monday. Deep moisture h9-h7 moves over
the area late tonight into Monday. Due to the moisture expect
scattered showers especially over the west half of the cwa with
additional lift provided by upslope over the higher terrain. Another
breezy but much cooler day with highs only reaching to around 60
degrees near Lk Superior and into the 60s south central. Temps along
some shoreline areas of Lk Superior may stay in the 50s.

Despite the cool temps the gusty northwest winds will build waves on
Lk Superior. The result will be a high swim risk for the beaches of
Alger county. Local guidance suggests that a Beach hazard statement
will be needed. Will mention increased swim risk in the Hazardous
weather outlook and through social media.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent mid-upper level troughing across eastern Canada will keep
a nw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes through much of next
week resulting in seasonably cool conditions and a few chances for
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Expect conditions to clear out
Monday evening ahead of weak mid-level ridging. Light winds and
generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple of chilly
summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s readings
for the typical cold spot locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday will rebound a bit from Monday`s readings with
inland temps highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday: After a return to more seasonable temps
for Wednesday, the passage of a shortwave will push a sharp
trough/cold front across Upper MI Thursday. Model fcst Q-vector
convergence along with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE should allow for
sct shra/isold tsra to develop on Thu. With cyclonic flow and
lingering low-level moisture, a few showers may also be possible on
Friday for mainly the east half. Next weekend (Sat-Sun) looks dry
with confluent flow aloft and building sfc high pressure.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

As gusty W veering NW winds advect cooler and moister air into Upr
Lks, expect VFR conditions thru this evng to deteriorate into the
MVFR range late tngt, faster at the CMX and IWD sites where the NW
flow wl present an upslope wind component. Although there could also
be some showers at these sites as well, no sgnft vsby restriction is
likely. As the veering flow taps drier air late in the day, some
improvement wl occur, but improvement to VFR cigs is not likely
until after 28/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

SW winds 20-30 kts shift NW on Monday. Strongest winds on Monday
will be over east half. Winds diminish through rest of week less
than 20 kts as pressure gradient weakens.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA



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