Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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746
FXUS63 KMQT 181739
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1239 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

With onshore/upslope flow today, expect some drizzle and freezing
drizzle. Do not expect significant amounts, but could see some slick
spots on untreated roads and have, therefor, issued a Special
Weather Statement.

A couple shortwaves will usher in colder air this evening and
tonight, with 850mb temps falling to around -16C by 12Z Sun. This
will turn drizzle over to NNW-NW wind LES from NE to SE. Have just 1-
3" of snow in the NNW-NW snowbelts this evening through tonight.
Breezy winds near Lake Superior will also lead to some blowing snow
along the lakeshore. Overall expecting minor impacts from the
snowfall and blowing snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

Progressive northern stream will persist for much of the upcoming
week. Light lake effect snow will be ongoing Sunday morning for
northwest wind favored areas with over lake 85H temps in the -13 to
16C range.  Over lake anticyclonic flow along with generally dry
airmass should limit additional accumulations to no more than an
inch or two.  In fact...warm advection sets in pretty quickly by
late morning over the western lake as winds become more westerly
ahead of next clipper system.

Surface low associated with next clipper will pass north of Lake
Superior late Monday into Tuesday. Significant warm advection ahead
of the low should boost temperatures to a few degrees above normal
over the western U.P. on Monday and back to near normal elsewhere.

Cold surge behind the clipper for Tuesday into Wednesday will
reinvigorate northwesterly flow lake effect snow with 85H temps
falling back to -15C or so. Quick transition from cyclonic to
anticyclonic flow and limited moisture will once again keep snowfall
accumulations in check.

Overall travel conditions across the U.P. and through the Great
Lakes should be pretty tranquil from Wednesday afternoon through
Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures will modify back to their late
November normals...perhaps even a little above...for Thanksgiving
and Friday ahead of next clipper and bout of lake effect snow for
next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

Upslope flow off Lake Superior combined with moisture trapped under
inversion will lead to prevailing lowered CIGs today. There could be
some very light dz/fzdz at each of the TAF sites; however, coverage
is expected to be very low. Have left this out of the TAF at this
point, due to the aforementioned coverage and confidence in this
actually occuring. As colder air moves in this evening into Sunday,
any dz/fzdz will transition to lake effect snow. First at IWD and
CMX and then at KSAW. Generally expecting only light snow; however,
gusty winds may lead to some blowing snow causing reduced visbility
at times into Sunday morning. Winds becoming westerly through the
day Sunday will shift the main focus of any remain light lake effect
snow to the KCMX TAF site, while KSAW and KIWD see improving
conditions Sunday morning and afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 434 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

Northwest winds increase to 20-30 kts late today into Sun. Not
expecting gales, though, so will keep some occasional gale gusts
for now and not issue a Gale warning. Gales are possible late Mon
night through Tue night as an active pattern continues.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Titus



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