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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 080946
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
446 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN AREA OF WINTRY PCPN
CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN NE INTO EASTERN KY
THIS MORNING. RAIN FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
NRN AL AND NRN GA. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z TO 08Z...PLUS MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEEM TO PIN DOWN THE AREAS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO SCOTT COUNTY TN AND WISE COUNTY
VA. CALLS MADE TO ADJACENT COUNTIES ALONG NRN PLATEAU INTO LEE
COUNTY VA REVEALED A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN OR NO PCPN AT ALL. WISE
COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED A LIGHT ICY RAIN IN COEBURN WITH ROADS
WEST TO KY LINE GETTING A BIT OF ICING. THIS ALL FITS WELL WITH OUR
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH 7AM EST.

WILL RUN A PRE FIRST PERIOD FOR FORECAST AS THE WINTRY PCPN LOOKS TO
END IN OUR AREA BY 12Z TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS N-NE. MAX TEMPS TRICKY AND ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NE THE WARM FRONT REACHES. CLOUDS AND RAIN LED
ME TO UNDERCUT GFS MOS MAXES...WHICH ALSO MESHED BETTER WITH
ADJACENT NWS GRIDS. WENT AT LEAST CLOSER TO MOS BLEND FOR MAXES SW
OF PROGGED WARM FRONT LOCATION...AND ALSO FOR TRI WHERE DOWNSLOPING
E TO SE WINDS OCCUR.

NOT A LOT TO SAY ABOUT TONIGHT...EXCEPT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IN PREVIOUS GRIDS
ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE COOL IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ALOFT...NOT
EXACTLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSRA. THIS LIMITS INSTABILITY TO ELEVATED TO
MY THINKING. QUITE MILD FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH GFS OR BLEND
CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY AS
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST. CONTINUED
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT WITH RAINFALL HIGHS STILL ONLY CLIMB TO
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS EASTERN AREAS THEN SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 18Z AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
THE RAIN DECREASES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODELS
DEVELOP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO THE SW WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PARTS OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY REACH THE LOWER 30S. AS
ATMOSPHERE COOLS ALOFT THERE MAY BE SOME SLEET MONDAY NIGHT AND
SNOW BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. EARLY TUESDAY RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW BUT ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MORNING BEFORE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT
AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TO WARM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES A DRY PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS FRIDAY THEN TREKS EAST INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN
INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE MAINLY
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES ON SATURDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  46  51  40  45 / 100 100 100  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  45  52  39  42 / 100 100 100  70  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  43  51  37  40 / 100 100  90  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  41  53  37  44 / 100 100 100  70  70
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE.
TN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: SCOTT TN.

VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WISE.
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&&

$$

TG/TD