Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300727 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 327 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A few isolated showers will move through the region early this morning...mainly along the TN/KY border. The main weather impact though will be low stratus and localized patchy dense fog in areas that received rainfall earlier. This fog will dissipate after sunrise...with partly sunny conditions quickly developing and persisting for most of the day. Given the warm/unstable boundary layer that will develop by the afternoon...scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the entire region...especially along the higher terrain. A broad upper-trough will swing through the region during the afternoon/evening...helping to provide a little bit of upper-level support...which could keep some of this activity going into the late evening and overnight hours as well. The warm/moist air mass...and ample sunshine will allow highs to peak in upper 80s to lower 90s across the region...with heat index values a few degrees higher. Thus...have gone a 2-3 degrees above guidance for highs. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not many changes to the long term forecast. An upper level trough will remain overhead through Monday. A few short waves will move through, resulting in an unsettled weather pattern with a good chance for convection each day. The upper level trough overhead will slowly push east by midweek, giving way to upper level ridging as high pressure builds back into the central US. Temperatures will rise back to slightly above normal as the high strengthens. While thunderstorm probabilities will be lower, a few weak disturbances will crest the ridge and drop into our area for the second half of the workweek. There will be enough instability and moisture present to produce scattered thunderstorm chances as these disturbances move through.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 92 73 / 30 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 73 89 71 / 30 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 90 70 / 40 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 87 67 / 50 40 40 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/EMH

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