Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231951 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST H85 WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) NAM WANTS TO CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO KEEP THE ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY`S AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GIN UP A LOW THAT SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH EAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND BROUGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE THE SNOW STAYING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS TO SUPPORT SNOW, BUT AT THE MOMENT HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK TILL HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHEN (OR IF) THIS MIGHT HAPPEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 65 36 54 / 70 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 64 36 52 / 90 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 62 36 52 / 80 20 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 65 36 48 / 90 20 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON. && $$ SON/ABM

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