Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271858 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...
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Fair weather will mark most of the short term period. Cool and dry tonight thanks to a weak frontal passage. But abundant sunshine and fairly low humidity will result in warmer temperatures Wednesday afternoon. The Bermuda High will bring increased humidity back into the region for Thursday, resulting in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to east Tennessee and southwest NC. .LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...Models continue to be in fair agreement overall, although still differ in the details especially later in the period. Forecast confidence is near to slightly below average for this time of year. With the low level southwesterly flow early in the period, moisture will be increasing. Expect scattered convection on Friday especially in the afternoon. By Saturday a weak cold front will be sagging closer to the area. Most likely scenario is that this front stalls to our north. However, with the front moving closer and some weak short wave energy likely moving across, looks like Saturday may have the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms of the period. Will go with likely PoPs all areas Saturday. Models disagree on how much deep layer drying there will be for Sunday/Monday, but low levels at least should remain moist so will keep scattered convection in the forecast for both days. Tuesday still problematic as some models hint at another short wave affecting the area, but features that weak are unlikely to be handled well that far out. For now will keep chance PoPs all areas for Independence Day. Temperatures are forecast to not be far from normal for this time of year.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 88 68 84 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GC/LW

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