Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 312030 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DON`T START UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLATEAU. I TOOK SNOW OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. OPTED TO STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY STRONG 850MB FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING AT 22Z ON SUNDAY (AND CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD) UNTIL 10Z MONDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 850 MB JET THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS. .LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... AS SEEMS TO BE THE STORY WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS YEAR...MODELS ARE COMING IN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW MORE INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. SEEMS TO BE THE OVERALL TREND WITH MOST OF THE MODELS AND SHOULD THIS PAN OUT WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE VALLEY SEE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. CURRENTLY HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY, BUT STILL THINK THE HIGHER TERRAINS COULD SEE SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE AF... WE WILL ALSO HAVE A DECENT 850MB JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE JET MAX BEING AROUND 60 KNOTS, THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO END AT 10Z ON MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT ON MONDAY WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED FOR PLACES THAT RECEIVED DECENT SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS COULD BLOW SNOW AROUND AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING, BUT LINGERING CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE WARM UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN, TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT BUT THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT ANOTHER ROUND OF A RAIN SNOW MIX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 53 36 39 / 0 90 90 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 36 / 0 80 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 51 34 36 / 0 80 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 50 34 35 / 10 60 90 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/ABM

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