Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 220717 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THICKNESS PACKING AND CLOCK AROUND UPPER RIDGE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE NW WITH SW VA AND NE TN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD TAKE US OUT OF THE MCS TRACK BUT NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING BUT MODELS INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 73 97 73 / 10 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 73 93 71 / 20 10 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 92 72 93 71 / 20 10 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 67 88 67 / 40 50 50 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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