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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 092015
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL BUMP UP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST
VA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU AS AN
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL ALSO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT...STAYED
NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MORE OR LESS PERSIST FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...LESS AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORMALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
WILL PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS GFS NOW KEEPS IT MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...REVERSING THEIR ROLES FROM YESTERDAY. STILL
THINK A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN WARRANTED SOUTH ON FRIDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. WILL GO DRY SATURDAY...THEN MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
PRECIP TO THE AREA FOR SOMETIME IN THE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS DO
NOT AGREE ON TIMING. FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME. WILL GO DRY TUESDAY FOR NOW.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 26 40 26 43 25 / 20 20 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 34 22 38 22 / 40 50 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 34 21 40 21 / 30 40 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 28 21 35 19 / 60 60 20 10 0-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
/3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...
BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...EAST POLK...
GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...
MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...
NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...
RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
HANCOCK...HAWKINS...MORGAN...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST
GREENE...SCOTT TN...SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
WASHINGTON...WISE.-- End Changed Discussion --

GH/LDW

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