Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301855 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 255 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SHORT TERM (tonight through Monday)...A boundary will continue to approach the area from the west. Short term models seem to have a better handle on this system...with rain beginning between 4 and 6 pm for southern plateau and southern TN...and moving SW to NE through the night and early Monday morning. Instability is weak with this system...but winds throughout the lower and mid levels are around 40 kts or stronger. If any storm cores can access these winds and pull them to the surface...damaging winds will cause possible downed trees and powerlines across the area. PW values in the southern Plateau and southern valley are around 1.2 to 1.4 which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall...with localized flooding possible in the slower areas of this line. Overnight temperatures will be several degrees above normal due to the cloud cover and S to SW warm air and moisture advection that remains. A strong low level jet will move through the area overnight through tomorrow afternoon. Winds with this system could gust to around 40 mph...with gusts of around 50 mph possible in the higher elevations. Have issued a wind advisory for the entire area. With the recent rainfall...could expect the possibility of a couple of trees down...especially with the higher wind gusts. The system should move east of the area by afternoon on Monday...with a few lingering light scattered showers possible through the early evening. Temperatures Monday will be a degree or two below normal with W to NW flow behind the departing boundary. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...By Monday night, the cold front will be pushing east of the area, and dry, more seasonable weather will be returning. It may still be a bit breezy on Tuesday behind the frontal passage, especially across the higher terrain along the mountains. By Wednesday, our next weather system will be strengthening over the central US and will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to our forecast area for Wednesday night in Thursday. The system will continue to strengthen on Thursday as it drags a cold front across our area, and the upper low will take its time exiting the Mid-South. Wraparound moisture on the back side of the low will result in a continuing shower/isolated tstorm chances for the area on Friday and Friday night. Conditions should gradually improve on Saturday with the low finally lifting out of the area. The second half of the weekend looks pleasant with sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 73 52 77 / 100 70 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 73 51 74 / 60 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 72 51 75 / 70 70 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 73 48 70 / 50 60 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains- East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins- Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union- Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for Lee- Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise. && $$ JW/EMH

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