Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250229 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 929 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing ahead of cold front moving into middle Tennessee at mid evening. Air mass is still unstable over middle Tennessee as well as the Cumberland Plateau and southern Tennessee Valley. As low level jet strengthens and ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear of 35-45 kts continues, the line of storms should stay organized for the next several hours as it moves east. Strong straight line winds with a line of storms will be the main threat. The storms will likely move into the Forecast Area before midnight and then cross the region through the pre-dawn hours. Have updated forecast slightly on timing. Temperatures will fall only very slowly until the rain moves in and there will be a significant drop towards morning into the 40s and lower 50s. South to southeast winds were increasing in the higher Smoky Mountains and will be gusting over 40 mph until early Saturday. Will update wind advisory shortly. Updated forecast sent. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains. VA...None. && $$ TD

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