Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170659 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THE NEAR-TERM...TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY LIMIT FREEZE/FROST EXTENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME AREAS WILL REACH CRITERIA...SO WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES AS IS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED. UPPER FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT AREAS OF CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND REVEAL TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME PERIODS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GA WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SECOND COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLOWER...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 65 46 / 0 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 42 64 46 / 0 0 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 64 46 / 0 0 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 36 63 42 / 0 0 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK- GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION- MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE- NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$

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