Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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004 FXUS64 KMRX 261908 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 308 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .Short term (tonight and tomorrow)... The main concern in the short term will be the convective line moving E-SE across central KY this afternoon. The HRRR brings it right to our northern Plateau counties at 00Z...then it dissipates rapidly. SPC Mesoanalysis parameters show a less favorable environment to support the storms in our area...and with the loss of heating...the HRRR depiction of weakening storms looks reasonable and will be followed. Will have a chance pop in the evening for the Plateau...with a slight chance elsewhere. Some patchy fog may be possible late tonight...but expected broken midlevel clouds should prevent much widespready dense fog from developing. A ridge off the Delmarva coast will continue to produce a southerly low level flow over the Appalachians tomorrow...but there appears to be a lack of mid/upper level forcing for lift. With little to no cap in forecast soundings...this should result in scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon...with the mountains and Plateau being favored areas. .Long term (Friday night through Thursday)... High pressure ridge along east coast remains strong friday night into saturday saturday night but weak tropical low tries to develop and move inland sunday into SC. At the same time persisitent southerly flow around ridge will gradually increase moisture over the eastern TN valley with an increasing chance of showers and storms sunday into monday as a weak front approaches and possible interaction from the east with weak tropical low. The ECMWF model shows rain chances decreasing again tuesday as the front dissipates. But the GFS brings more tropical moisture in from the east tuesday keeping rain chances going. Another front will approach wednesday and thursday with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and storms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable with the convective nature with some areas receiving much less than others. Temperatures will remain above normal mostly mid to upper 80s lower elevations with highs in the lower to mid 60s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 86 66 87 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 86 65 86 / 10 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 65 86 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 86 61 86 / 20 30 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/TD

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