Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260708 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 308 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Clouds over SW VA and NE TN will continue to decrease early this morning as the upper trough over the Mid Atlantic states tracks offshore. Through today, we will have a dry NW flow across the area as a mid/upper ridge moves across TN/KY, allowing for mostly sunny skies and highs climbing closer to normal levels, in the upper 70s north to mid 80s south. Tonight, the ridge will be to our east and models show a shortwave trough crossing KY. Moisture and lift with this disturbance stays north of our area near the OH River and WV, so the forecast will keep dry conditions for tonight with increasing cloud cover. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Saturday will be the most active day of this forecast as we sit under a ridge with a warm front just north of the area. Temperatures look to warm up enough that we could see some convection in the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show that there will be a good amount of CAPE (approximately 1000-2000 J/Kg) and enough shear (20- 30 kt) to sustain thunderstorm activity. The environment suggests that any storms that do become strong or severe will be capable of strong straight line winds and even some large hail. The NAM is currently forecasting for there to be a decent cap in place, which it forecasts to hinder thunderstorm development. If the NAM does end up being the correct solution then thunderstorms would still develop, but be much more scattered. In our forecast area locations north of Interstate 40 have the highest chances to see strong to severe storms on Saturday. A frontal boundary should move through on Sunday night/Monday morning and will continue the rain chances on Sunday/Monday. Timing of the front means that it will only impact temperatures a bit on Monday (only about 5 degrees cooler). After the front moves through we should see a break in precipitation chances... However models are hinting at a secondary frontal boundary moving through on Tuesday/Wednesday but with the drier air behind the initial front precipitation chances look pretty meager for this second system. Low level moisture begins to build back in at the end of next week leading to another possible round of showers and thunderstorms at the tail end of this forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 65 83 69 / 0 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 83 67 / 0 10 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 82 64 84 68 / 0 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 59 83 65 / 0 10 40 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.