Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280955 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 455 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT NORTH OF I-40 WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NRN GA AND SC. POPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN MAXES OCCURING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH LIGHTER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...AND A FASTER END TO THE RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY...SO NO FLOOD WATCH CONSIDERED OR NEEDED AT THIS TIME. OPTED FOR A MOS BLEND ON MINS TONIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPS CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOWING HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND FOLLOWING THE DRIER GFS AND STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AIR MASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT TODAY IS NOT THAT COLD SO HIGHS MONDAY TO BE IN THE 50S. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SECONDARY FRONT WITH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE SW VA MOUNTAINS...BUT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH COLD AIR MASS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST DEEPENS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TX THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOW BUT THEN CHANGE TO RAIN FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 42 55 40 / 100 80 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 40 53 38 / 100 80 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 39 51 38 / 100 80 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 41 50 36 / 100 90 40 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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