Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231907 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 307 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SHORT TERM /Tonight and Monday/...
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A widespread flooding areal flood event is underway across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region this afternoon. Abundant moisture is combining with a slow moving cold front and strong upper-level storm system to generate several rounds of light to moderate, steady precipitation. Over the last 24 to 36 hours, the region has seen 2 to 4 inches of rain, with a few localized amounts of 5 to 6 inches. The hardest hit areas have been along the Cumberland Plateau, the Cumberland Mountains of Southwest Virginia, and much of Southeast Tennessee. However, all areas are experiencing rampant flooding along creeks/streams, low water crossings, poor drainage areas -- which has resulted in numerous road closures. As a result, a Flood Warning is in effect for the entire CWA until 6:30 PM. This will need to be reassessed by the evening shift at that time. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP indicate this activity beginning to wane across the southern areas between 21-00z as a dry slot moves in. However, locations across the Northern Plateau, Central/Northern Valleys and the NC/VA/TN mountains may see several more hours of light to moderate rainfall. This could result in an additional 1 to 2 inches in some spots where heavy training occurs. Eventually, some tapering off will occur -- roughly from 03-09z west to east. However, this may be a slow process, so have expanded the watch for eastern areas until 12z Monday. Some significant flooding issues may occur in these areas, so travel is discouraged unless necessary. Clouds and light rain will linger into the morning hours -- especially over upper East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. Any flooding issues may linger as well -- so use caution on the morning rush hour commute. Temperatures will be slow to climb given the cloud cover, so highs in the low to mid 60s will be common. .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Sunday/... A few lingering showers are expected to slowly exit the area on Monday as a upper low tracks along the east coast. High pressure will build in late Monday into Monday night for a quite weather pattern for mid week. The high will dominate area weather through Wednesday for dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Models beginning to show better consistency with a cold front moving in around Thursday...bringing our next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Model consistency deteriorates after Thursday...but models do indicate a weak boundary moving through the region around the Friday time frame providing a chance for additional convective activity. Then...current model runs build a ridge of high pressure over the area for Saturday and the next system beginning to approach the area on Sunday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 68 55 79 / 70 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 68 53 77 / 90 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 53 68 53 77 / 90 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 65 50 74 / 90 50 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Cocke Smoky Mountains-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN. Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion- McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane- Scott TN-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington-Wise.
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&& $$ AMP/MJB

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