Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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864 FXUS64 KMRX 031856 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 256 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)... MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO OUR EAST THAT IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS CURRENTLY WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA, BUT IF ANY LOCATIONS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY TAME COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW ON MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT SOME PLACES SEE SMALL HAIL SINCE STORMS WONT HAVE TO GROW VERY BIG TO TAP INTO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS FAIR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM NORTHEAST...TO BE AROUND EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AND MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER...MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW POPS NORTH SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE REGION...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 71 48 64 / 10 40 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 67 46 60 / 10 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 68 46 61 / 10 60 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 65 44 55 / 30 60 60 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/LW

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