Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010803 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THIS FRONT IN LEE COUNTY VA AND ALSO SOME IN SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY...BUT OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS EARLY TODAY. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER TODAY THEN SLOWLY WASHOUT TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE MET/NAM GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS FROM CURRENT FORECAST AND AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM/MET GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM AGAIN...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY...OCT 2 RECORD MAX AT TRI IS 85 IN 1986 AND WILL LIKELY BE MATCHED OR EXCEEDED. STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN ROCKIES AND CATCHES UP WITH SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE EARLY FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING JET EAST OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER DIGGING JET SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN TN VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NATION SPANNING N-S SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR NASHVILLE AROUND 03/12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WHICH ARE FAVORABLE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR EAST AS CONVECTION ARRIVES. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TILTS NEGATIVELY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE AREAS. NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AN IMPULSE IN THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON MONDAY AND RECARVES THE UPPER TROUGH BACK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 59 86 66 / 0 0 10 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 57 86 64 / 0 0 10 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 56 85 64 / 0 0 10 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 50 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD/SON

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