Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 061904 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)... FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 91 / 20 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 87 70 88 / 20 30 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 69 88 / 20 30 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 66 87 / 20 30 20 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/DGS

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