Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221835 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 235 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH FROST FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN SINCE THERE STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CLEARING TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS RISE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND WILL BE A DRY PERIOD ALBEIT WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE DRY WEATHER MAY LAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME MOISTURE AND FRONTAL LIFT INDICATED IN THE PROGS. IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...STAYED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECM AND MILDER MEX MOS NUMBERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 62 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ DMG/

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