Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 272019 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 48 32 54 / 0 0 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 21 44 28 50 / 0 0 10 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 23 43 30 49 / 0 0 10 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 16 39 24 46 / 10 0 10 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ TD/AMP

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