Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230716 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT... High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region today...but the the effects from a strong upper-low over the Carolina coast will still be felt across much of the area. Moist boundary layer conditions from eariler rainfall...along with light winds and a mostly to partly clear sky has created some patchy fog /some locally dense/...across much of SW Virginia and NE Tennessee this morning. Will need to consider a SPS for this area to account for the locally dense nature of this fog. Elsewhere...patchy fog is possible...but will be much more localized and confined to sheltered valleys and lakes. Northerly flow will continue across the region today...but ample sunshine should create warmer temperatures today over good portion of the region...where highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be common. The one expection will be SW Virginia and parts of far NE Tennessee...where some partial cloud cover and breezy northerly flow will keep temperatures in check a bit more...in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The sky should clear off everywhere by tonight... resulting in good radiational cooling and some cooler lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across most of the Tennessee Valley. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quick overview of the period. Above normal highs and lows through the period with high pressure inplace. Slight chance to chance pops in place for most of the periodwith diurnal thunderstorms possible. Tuesday, upper trough finally off to our east with ridging building into the area. No pops in place with highs in the low to upper 80s, which is a few degrees above normal. Dry and clear Tuesday night with lows near normal. A little bit of moisture begins to work its way into the area on Wednesday from out of the southwest. However,very weak upper level flow will allow most areas to stay dry, except for the higher terrain where a slight chance pop is in place for diurnal convection. Temps continue to warm up with highs around 5 degrees above normal. Lows will be mild Wednesday night with temps 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Bermuda high develops off to our east on Thursday as a broad upper-trough begins to slide toward the area from the southwest. The approach of this trough will allow for slightly higher pop chances due to upper level divergence just off to our west, though any significant upper level support remains further off to the west. Highs on Thursday will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with the extreme southern valley having a shot at their first 90 degree day of the year. Very mild Thursday night with temps in the low to mid 60s. Bermuda high trying to hold strong on Friday but with upper-trough nudging slightly further east. Friday pop chances and high low temps very similar to Thursday. Bermuda high forces upper level trough to lift to our northwest on Saturday and Sunday. As the trough lifts north another wave of moisture moves in from the south and will allow for slight chance to chance pops to continue over the weekend, with continued highs in the low to upper 80s. GFS still holding onto easterly wave at the end of the period. Will continue to watch and see how models handle this system. Impact on our area is still to be determined, if any. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 56 87 61 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 51 80 54 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/SR

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