Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240701 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 301 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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High pressure at the surface is well established across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region early this morning...with a mostly clear sky and calm winds prevailing. This set up will likely lead to some patchy valley fog around daybreak...particularly across far Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. Will monitor trends for the possibility of an SPS in that area for localized dense fog through 13z. After sunrise...some scattered high clouds will eventually spread into the region from the west from convection over the Southern Plains...lower Mississippi Valley...and Ohio Valley. Models suggest that a stray shower or storm could try to sneak into the area late tonight along the TN/KY/VA border area. However...think that the drier area and subsidence from the high ridge should keep things mainly dry and have kept PoPs below mentionable levels for now. The main question for the short-term forecast will be the timing of the high clouds and how warm it will get this afternoon. Given the high progged thickness values and temperatures aloft... combined with the sunny to mostly sunny conditions for a majority of the day...think that highs in the lower 80s seem plausible over the northern Valley...and the mid to perhaps upper 80s over the central and southern Valley. Warmer lows tonight as well in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As we head into the middle of the work week we will continue to see the ridge building in strength over us. Most of the weather for the rest of the week into the next week will be determined by the strength and location of this ridge. Currently the GFS is weaker with this ridge allowing for increased moisture over the area and impulses to ride along the boundary of it, bringing on and off shower and thunderstorm chances each day. Most of the other models however are a bit stronger with the ridge and keeping more stable air over our area. Will go with very low chances for rain and thunderstorms most days of this week. However much of the rest of this weeks looks to be dry. With the ridge building in over our area for an extended period of time, temperatures will be able to climb into the 80`s almost each day for most of our forecast area, well above average for this time of year.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 60 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 60 86 63 / 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 53 82 60 / 0 0 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/ABM

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