Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 201935 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 335 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...A cold front is currently located across the mid-state and advancing toward the forecast area. This front is associated with a fairly deep longwave trough that will be swinging through tonight and tomorrow. There have already been a few light showers across the Plateau but nothing substantial. Still expecting shower and convective coverage to increase as we enter the tonight period where likely and categorical pops are forecast. Weak to moderate instability will be in place during this time and capping from earlier this afternoon should have eroded enough to allow for a few storms across the area. A few of these storms could be strong to potentially severe but not expecting widespread issues. With these storms the main threat will be isolated wind damage and small hail. Forecasted QPF amounts from tonight into tomorrow range from one quarter of an inch across the south to half an inch across northern areas. There may be a lull in winds this evening but they should pick back up as the front approaches. Expecting breezy conditions across the valley all night, generally around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 35 mph across the upper elevations. Will Drop storm chances from forecast after midnight and back to all showers. The cold front moves through during the early morning hours and should be east of the area by around 12z Friday morning. As the front swings through winds will shift from southwesterly to northerly. Breezy conditions expected behind the frontal passage and will persist through the day on Friday. Latest model runs show post-frontal precip into the afternoon hours on Friday due to wrap around moisture. Previous forecast had things clearing out sooner than latest model runs are showing. The best chances for light rain from the wrap around moisture should be confined to areas north of I-40 and east of 75. The best chances will be across NETN and into SWVA. Highs tomorrow will be quite a bit colder with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...Not much weather to talk about in the long term portion of the forecast. Below normal temperatures will continue on Saturday with temperatures expected to warm back up to around normal by Sunday. On Friday night we could see some of the highest terrain experience freezing to below freezing temperatures, but wide spread freezing temperatures are not expected for most of the area. Then after that everything is pretty much...normal...for this time of year. Temperatures will be right around normal...winds will be light like normal...skies will be mostly sunny like normal...precipitation will be non-existent like normal (unfortunately). The only weather of note will come at the tail end of the forecast when a weak system is expected to move north of the area and bring a slight chance of precipitation to the region.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 65 42 64 / 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 63 42 60 / 80 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 62 42 59 / 80 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 59 40 55 / 90 70 10 10
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