Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 190810 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 310 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... Behind the exiting cold front, a NW flow pattern will be in place across the area today. Observations across the area this morning show winds falling below advisory criteria, so the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire. Scattered to isolated showers will continue for northern sections this morning, with the higher elevations seeing some light snow accumulations. With 850 mb cold advection and a second 500 mb vort max crossing the area this afternoon, cloud cover will be slow to clear today, and will have high temps a little below MOS guidance. With clearing tonight and the surface high building into Middle TN, lows will fall into the 20s area wide tonight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)... Seasonably cool and dry conditions will dominanate the forecast through the extended. Main storm track will be mainly north and south of the area with surface ridging from the southern Appalachians in the Gulf Coast states. This surface ridging will not allow deep Gulf moisture to return northward into the area through the extended. Even though a frontal boundary will move through the region late Tuesday/Tuesday night, only effect will be shallow boundary layer moisture producing cloudy sky for Tuesday. Models do show a Gulf of Mexico system pulling northeast across the far southeast United States for the latter half of the week, but synoptic lift and moisture will stay well south and east of the southern Appalachians. For next Saturday, another frontal boundary will move across the region, but again little to no moisture and dynamics, so dry conditions anticipated with frontal passage. However, have included a chance of orographic lift producing showers across the mainly the higher terrain.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 29 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 27 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 27 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 25 51 28 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ DGS/DH

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