


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --587 FXUS64 KMRX 091105 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 705 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Next Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Key Messages: 1. Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Primary threats will be damaging wind gusts with torrential downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding. 2. Daily chances of afternoon showers and storms will continue across the area into next week. 3. Near normal temperatures with muggy conditions are expected for the remainder of the work week. A slight warming trend is expected through the weekend into next week. Discussion: Similar to last night, mostly dry conditions are expected overnight with some fog development particularly in and near river valley locations. An upper trough shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley this afternoon will enhance effective bulk shear to around 20kts, allowing for increased coverage of afternoon convection relative to previous days. Though weak, the shear will be efficient enough to allow some updraft/downdraft separation and promote taller storms alongside 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Precipitation loading could lead to a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. The band of enhanced mid-level flow will shift east of the area by Thursday. Diurnal chances of showers and storms continue with the trough axis on the eastern periphery of the forecast area. However, slightly less favorable MLCAPE per latest NAM/HRRR model derived soundings(1500-2000J/kg) and and EBWD less than 20kts suggest limited potential for strong to severe activity - more so general summertime convection. This pattern is expected to persist largely through the entirety of the forecast period. Exact coverage or potential for strong to severe storms will be partially dependent on the timing and magnitude of any weak impulses traversing mean flow aloft. Though, with continued days of afternoon convection and PWAT between the 75th and 90th percentile based off SPC sounding climatology from KBNA, isolated flooding concerns will be monitored as we go through the week and into the weekend. For now, WPC excessive rainfall outlooks highlight much of the area in marginal risks through the first half of the weekend. The end of the week will see a slight cooling trend due to more persistent cloud cover and minor upper-level height falls. It will still feel plenty muggy with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s. Ambient temperatures will begin a slow upward trend during the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Incoming shortwave aloft should lead to SCT to NUM SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Still think there`s enough hit/miss coverage to warrant only having PROB30s at all sites, but KTRI likely has the best chances at seeing convection at the terminal later today. Subsequently, KTRI is the most likely to see some fog or MVFR CIGS tonight as well as a result of rainfall in that general area. Guidance is hitting VSBY harder than low clouds so have trended that direction. Elsewhere, any fog or low cloud potential seems more limited.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 89 72 / 60 40 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 88 70 / 80 50 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 88 69 / 80 50 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 84 67 / 90 70 80 40-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...CD