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000
FXUS64 KMRX 260717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
317 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
A cold front that is currently across southern IN/IL/MO will be
pushing east through the day, and will be the main focus of showers
and thunderstorms for our area this afternoon and evening. The
ongoing convection is post-frontal that weakens through the morning,
but the models develop a new convective line along the front as it
moves into the Cumberland Plateau around 20Z. The best precip
chances occur with the fropa between 20-00Z, and will have likely
pops in this time frame. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the front
should hold high temps back from the past few days and below record
highs, but still above normal in the mid to upper 80s. Some post-
frontal precip will be possible as the surface front outpaces the
midlevel trough axis, and low to slight chance pops will continue
after midnight.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Quick swing in the weather pattern from the above average
temperatures we`ve seen for the past few months, some people might
even want to break out the sweater/hoodie at some point this week.

There could be a bit of remnant moisture left after the front passes
that could bring light precip along the Southern Appalachian
Mountains on Tuesday, but most of the area should stay dry. The next
thing to watch will be the low pressure system over the Great Lakes
region. models were in a bit of disagreement in previous runs, but
are starting to narrow in on a solution that has this low slowly
diving south/southeastward towards the mid Atlantic states and maybe
even moving over our forecast area. Currently the ECMWF is the most
aggressive with how far south to bring this system, but the GFS/NAM
are starting to follow suit in the latest runs. The amount of
moisture/precipitation that this system will bring is still a bit
difficult to pin down at this time... But it does look promising
that we will see cloudy, cool, and wet conditions the middle of the
week until this system moves out to the northeast. Best chances for
precipitation will be in Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia
closer to where the lows track will likely be.

Once this system finally moves out we are forecasted to see a return
to sunnier weather at the end of this 7-day forecast..


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  62  80  53 /  60  30  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  59  78  50 /  60  40  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  56  80  50 /  60  30  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  57  76  46 /  70  60  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM