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913
FXUS64 KMRX 241845
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
A cold front moves to our east tonight with high pressure building
in. Drier air and thinning clouds will lead to overnight low
temperatures slightly below average. There could be some patchy
fog in localized sheltered valleys tonight where winds will be
calm and soil moisture is high, but widespread fog is unlikely
with light winds and dry air keeping the boundary layer lightly mixed.
Sunshine should be prevalent on Sunday, but troughing across the
Eastern U.S. should keep temperatures cooler than average in the
short term.

.LONG TERM...
We will continue with calm weather with the drier northwest flow
and slight troughing in the mid levels. ECMWF wants to show a weak
shortwave zip across the region on Tuesday bringing in
precipitation to our northern counties, but the other long term
models are not depicting this at this time. Will go with a slight
chance of precipitation on Tuesday, but still expect most
locations to not see rain for several days.

Surface high pressure will move from west to east over the area
during the week helping to continue the clearer skies and warmer
temperatures for the second half of the week when the high is
situated right over us. Towards the end of the work week and into
the weekend the high will move far enough off the eastern seaboard
that we will start to get more moisture rich air from the Gulf of
Mexico. This combined with temperatures right around normal for this
time of year will allow for some diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Determining exact location of these
diurnally driven storms is a bit difficult at this time, so have
gone with widespread precipitation chances over the area over the
weekend even though many places might not see rain at all during
this entire 7-day forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  83  59  83 /  10   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  80  58  80 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  81  56  80 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  78  53  77 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

JB/ABM