Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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990 FXUS64 KMRX 092311 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 711 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1244 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Key Messages: 1. Scattered thunderstorms this evening - strong thunderstorms and heavy rain rates. 2. Diurnal thunderstorms expected again on Thursday, but lower coverage and primarily far eastern counties of the forecast area near the NC state line. Discussion: Upper-level shortwave trough will continue to rotate eastward today with southwest flow aloft ahead of this feature. A warm, unstable airmass will be present across the area with RAP forecast MLCAPE around 2000 J/Kg expected, primarily east of Interstate 75. Forecast soundings indicate a saturated profile and high freezing level above 15k ft; resulting in a deep warm cloud layer depth. With PW values between 2.0 and 2.2 inches across the area, heavy rain rates are expected this evening - and localized flash flooding will be the primary risk with some of these rainfall rates around 3"+ per hour. Frequent lightning and isolated strong downburst winds will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms, as well. The most likely regions for seeing rainfall today will be across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area where synoptic forcing is more favorable to convective initiation. Looking at NBM probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches of rainfall this evening, TRI has around a 70% to 80% chance, TYS is around 50% to 60%, and CHA is around 30% to 40%. With the heavy rain rates, if any thunderstorms remain over, or multiple storms track over, one specific location for an hour or two, localized flash flooding will be likely for these spots. This evening will be our highest probability of rainfall that we`ve had so far this week, and will likely be our highest chance of rain through the rest of the week and into the weekend, as well. Shortwave axis shifts eastward by Thursday morning with primary support for convective initiation on Thursday afternoon near the far eastern Tennessee mountain zones and into North Carolina. Chances of rain and thunderstorms will decrease with distance west of the mountains. && .LONG TERM...
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(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Key Messages: 1. Drier weather expected Friday behind the shortwave. 2. Upper-level ridge brings hot weather this weekend into early next week. Diurnal convective trends continue into next week. 3. Weak shortwave may bring more widespread scattered convection on Monday afternoon and evening. Discussion: Upper-level ridge begins to build in from the west on Friday with northwest flow and subsidence aloft. It should be mostly clear and mostly dry with perhaps a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. As the 591-594 dam upper-level ridge builds in this weekend across the Mid-South, hot weather is expected with temperatures in the low 90s and heat index values approaching 100F. Diurnal, summertime convection is expected with the highest probabilities for thunderstorms near the higher elevations. A quick moving shortwave will shift east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Monday with the center of a 594 dam upper-level ridge retrograding across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will place us between these two features, and with the shortwave passing nearby, will likely give us a slightly higher chance of more widespread scattered convection on Monday afternoon and evening. The ridge will continue to retrograde slowly westward placing us in a hot, humid environment with northwest flow aloft. There are hints of some subtle shortwaves/MCVs rotating around the ridge towards the middle of next week. While hot, mostly dry weather will be the prevailing forecast, MCS activity will bear watching across the region based on this pattern.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Showers and storms will continue over the next couple of hours with activity having passed just east of TRI and CHA. TYS could see reductions from a storm in the next hour or two, so a TEMPO was maintained. Activity will diminish through the evening with development of vicinity fog around TYS and TRI with TRI potentially seeing off and on reductions by early morning. During the day on Thursday, winds will generally be from the west or southwest with clouds around 5,000 feet AGL. Showers and storms will develop by the afternoon again with the best coverage currently to be around CHA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 71 91 / 50 70 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 70 91 / 70 70 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 69 90 / 60 70 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 87 / 80 80 30 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...BW