Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 270748 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 348 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS GENERALLY OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT FOR ECMWF AND HRRR. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED CURRENTLY BUT NOT HARDLY A SHOWER OR STORM IN OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TODAY...BUT NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER THAN 30-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SUNDAY`S MAXES. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING THEN DROPPED POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME ERN AND SRN AREAS AFTER 06Z. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS...BUT THIS MAY ALSO BE OVERDONE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO A FEW SPOTS LATE WITH LOWS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MORE COVERAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHEAR IS LIMITED AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINS IN THE SLOW MOVING STORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT... THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT WITH AMPLE DRY AIR...SO ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EAST TN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WHOLE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...LOWERING TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 74 95 73 / 20 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 72 90 72 / 30 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 72 91 71 / 30 20 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 68 87 67 / 50 30 30 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.