Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 202011 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP PROMOTE DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING DAY ON SUNDAY /ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S/. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT SOMEWHAT. WITH A STRONG 70-80 KT 850 MB LLJ ROTATING OVER THE PLATEAU ON SUNDAY AND PREVAILING SE TO SSE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A GOOD SETUP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY ON MONDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR /ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES/. THIS PREVAILING BROAD TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY... PROMOTING COOLER AIR AND THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 55 36 60 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 51 31 57 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 26 50 31 58 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 46 25 53 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/AMP

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