Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170629 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 229 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER UNTIL MID-MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINS. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH THE CONTINUED COOLER...POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CLOUD COVER/FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH LOWS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP AND VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS. NW FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT (DRY) EASES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS FRIDAY...FLEXING NE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER GENERALLY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 00Z GFS...SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST GRIDS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...OTHER THAN A FEW MAX/MIN TEMP AJUSTMENTS. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP ON THE WARMER DAYS...BUT STAYED JUST BELOW GFSX MOS ON DAYS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GAVE A BIT MORE RANGE IN MINS FROM CHA TO TRI ON A FEW NIGHTS...DUE TO DRY AIRMASS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 58 81 59 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 56 78 57 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 76 55 78 56 / 10 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 51 73 52 / 10 10 0 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP

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