Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 242006 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...JUST SOME BRIEF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION EXIT DURING THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SO WILL LET REMAINING WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AT THIS POINT THE MOST EXCITEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO MAKE IT`S WAY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND AND INVADE THE AREA AS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SNOW. AREAS TOWARDS THE VALLEY WOULD LIKELY SEE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. EARLY THURSDAY/LATE WEDNESDAY SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO START TO DRY OUT THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE OTHERS WANT TO KEEP IT MOIST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE TIME DRAWS CLOSER AS IT COULD HELP SOME LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER QUICK BOUT OF SNOW IF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ARE STILL MOIST COME THURSDAY MORNING. WE TAKE A BREAK FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB BEFORE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS WANT TO BRING IN A FRONT AND STALL IT OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THEY ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHERE THIS COULD OCCUR. IF THIS DOES COME TO PASS PLACES NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOME STEADY RAIN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 38 55 36 52 / 0 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 53 35 50 / 10 0 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 36 52 36 50 / 10 0 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 54 34 46 / 10 0 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/ABM

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