Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 100816 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 316 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAUSING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THESE BANDS CAN PRODUCE A QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTHWARD UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIMES GOING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST. THIS TREND OF LOW-CLOUD SLOWLY ERODING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A VERY WEAK WAVE WILL QUICK APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. BESIDES RETURN OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALL DAY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OVER THE AREA...MAKING FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH FOR THESE AREAS. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING FOR THE VALENTINE`S WEEKEND...AND SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY /PRESIDENTS DAY/. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE AGAIN...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE COLD SUBFREEZING AIR IN PLACE...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH WOULD ADVECT WARMER TO TRANSITION SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THE GFS...IS TRENDING WARMER WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY CUT DOWN ON ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MODEL BLEND AND WILL MONITOR MODELS TRENDS TO ADDRESS CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 26 45 27 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 22 38 24 / 30 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 21 39 23 / 30 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 15 31 18 / 40 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-UNION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER- NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE- RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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