Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240725 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low spinning across MS/AR and W TN. Closer to home, a shortwave ridge can be seen across the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, there is also a weak high pressure in place across the Appalachian Region. Conditions have remained dry overnight with the loss of daytime heating and the anti-cyclonic flow aloft. With widespread showers and storms yesterday afternoon, expect there could be a few areas of patchy fog but nothing widespread this morning. For today, easterly flow develops in the mid and upper levels as the closed low moves off to the west. Model soundings indicate some drier air working into the mid and upper levels with the easterly flow. PW values drop some into the 1.4-.18 inch range with the lower values across SW VA and the higher values across the Southern Valley. SBCAPE values will range from 750-1500 J/Kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values less than 15 kts. Overall, do not expect any strong or severe storms across the area later this afternoon. Temperatures will be warm again with highs in the low to mid 90s with 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range. Yesterday`s highs exceeded guidance by a good bit despite the widespread precipitation coverage, therefore, stayed a bit warmer than guidance with highs today. Any ongoing convection should quickly come to an end near sunset with the loss of daytime heating. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Little change in the weather pattern early in the period with high pressure in control. As a result...will see continued hot and humid conditions and diurnal convection for Monday. By Tuesday...the high will weaken over the area and flow aloft will become zonal. This will allow a weak...broad boundary to settle into the region. Models show differences in timing and how far southward the boundary reaches but overall...this pattern will allow temperatures to cool slightly. The boundary should stall across the MRX to possibly just to our north and will be the focus of convective activity across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Deep moisture in place and the potential for slow moving storms could allow for locally heavy rainfall. We will remain in an active weather pattern through the rest of the extended as a frontal boundary and upper trough move into the region Friday and Saturday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 94 74 / 40 20 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 74 93 72 / 30 20 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 95 73 94 73 / 30 20 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 69 92 70 / 30 20 40 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MA/MJB

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