Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 310938 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 438 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH-MID CLOUDS FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH NY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SLIGHTLY HINDER MAX TEMPS FROM REACHING THE WARMER MOS MAXES. FOR TONIGHT...SREF/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TO 09Z MONDAY. OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR JUST THE NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES INTO MOST OF SW VA LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST GENERIC WORDING OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW. PROBABLY NO MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS IF ANY AT ALL. THE LOWERING MID DECK CLOUDS FAVOR THE MILDER MINS WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE STEADY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING WITH FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COOLING BEHIND FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS LOWS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY COLD AS NW FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT TAPERING OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MORE SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THEN LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 36 52 36 / 10 10 90 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 31 50 34 / 0 10 80 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 32 49 34 / 10 10 80 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 25 49 33 / 10 10 60 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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