Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 150823 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 423 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS CAME BACK OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER SW VA...WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG NOTED. SPS ISSUED FOR MORNING FOG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY...WILL CREATE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AREAS OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE NAM MODEL IS OVERDOING THE EXTENT OF THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAVORING THE RAP/SREF/GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MINIMAL. MIN TEMPS HELD UP SOME THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AND FOG...SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS HIGHS. A MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NAM MODEL SHOWS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN NAM PRODUCING ONLY CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF BOTH MODELS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO LOWS MOSTLY 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THEN SUNDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 65 85 63 / 40 30 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 63 82 59 / 30 20 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 62 82 58 / 20 20 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 59 78 53 / 20 20 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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