National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 082003
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MUCH TO COMPLAIN ABOUT
WEATHER WISE FOR THESE PERIODS AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT LACKS MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH BOTH OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS TRENDING EVEN DRIER ON THE
12Z RUN. TRIMMED POPS BACK TO VERY MINIMAL CHANCES...REMOVED FROM
SRN AREAS TONIGHT...AND REALLY LIMITED POPS TO MAINLY NE AREAS ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO GFS MOS VALUES TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...THEN REBOUND TO SIMILAR MOS MAXES FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE...WITH COOLEST NIGHT BEING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY
HARD TO BEAT THE GFS MOS TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN EVEN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY
DECENT TUESDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP ARRIVING MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TWO WAVES MAKING PROGRESS INTO OR THROUGH
THE EASTERN U.S. THE FIRST WAVE RIPS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS A NORTHERN STREAM WHICH AMPLIFIES
INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND EDGED LIKELY POPS A
LITTLE HIGHER FOR THE BIG MID WEEK EVENT. ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SHARPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPILLING
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRAILING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINING TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD
STAY ON THE DRY SIDE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODIFICATION GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 65 40 72 48 / 10 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 62 38 68 47 / 20 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 63 38 67 47 / 20 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 59 31 64 43 / 20 20 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

National Weather Service National Headquarters