Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250707 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 307 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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A back door cold front is pushing SW across srn VA/nrn NC this morning, reaching the NC mountains this afternoon. Models agree that showers and thunderstorms will develop in the mountains ahead of the front, and while most of this activity will stay to our east, there is a slight chance of some of it occurring along the TN/NC border and in our SW NC counties. The front stalls as it is blocked by the higher terrain, so the rest of the area will continue to be stable and dry as the midlevel ridge remains centered over Middle TN. Record high temperatures will again be threatened at CHA (94) and TYS (92). .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Monday will be the most active day of the forecast with the frontal boundary expected to move through that day. Ahead of the front we could get warm enough and have enough moisture to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. With the storms expected to move through pretty quickly we could see a few thunderstorms that produce gusty winds. More widespread precipitation will come with the passage of the front Monday afternoon into Monday night. Since the front is expected to move through relatively quickly am not expecting much in the way of heavy rainfall. Once the front moves through we will see pretty dry air over us through much of the rest of the week. The new development in the forecast is for the ECMWF to have the low behind the front spin its wheels over the Great Lakes and then dive southeastward towards the mid Atlantic states. The moisture and lift wrapped up with this could bring a possibility of precipitation in far Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia. However, the GFS is depicting the low to not dive as far south and stay further north and keep rain chances mostly out of our area. Have gone ahead and continued slight rain chances for the end of the week into the weekend, but will likely need to be tweaked when/if models get a better handle on how the low will move. Luckily it looks promising that we will get a decent run of average to even slightly below average temperatures after the front passes through.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 69 87 60 / 0 0 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 67 85 58 / 10 0 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 67 84 58 / 0 0 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 82 57 / 0 0 50 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM

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