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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 250707
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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A back door cold front is pushing SW across srn VA/nrn NC this
morning, reaching the NC mountains this afternoon. Models agree
that showers and thunderstorms will develop in the mountains ahead
of the front, and while most of this activity will stay to our
east, there is a slight chance of some of it occurring along the
TN/NC border and in our SW NC counties. The front stalls as it is
blocked by the higher terrain, so the rest of the area will
continue to be stable and dry as the midlevel ridge remains
centered over Middle TN. Record high temperatures will again be
threatened at CHA (94) and TYS (92).

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Monday will be the most active day of the forecast with the
frontal boundary expected to move through that day. Ahead of the
front we could get warm enough and have enough moisture to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. With the storms
expected to move through pretty quickly we could see a few
thunderstorms that produce gusty winds. More widespread
precipitation will come with the passage of the front Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Since the front is expected to move
through relatively quickly am not expecting much in the way of
heavy rainfall. Once the front moves through we will see pretty dry
air over us through much of the rest of the week.

The new development in the forecast is for the ECMWF to have the low
behind the front spin its wheels over the Great Lakes and then dive
southeastward towards the mid Atlantic states. The moisture and lift
wrapped up with this could bring a possibility of precipitation in
far Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia. However, the GFS is
depicting the low to not dive as far south and stay further north
and keep rain chances mostly out of our area. Have gone ahead and
continued slight rain chances for the end of the week into the
weekend, but will likely need to be tweaked when/if models get a
better handle on how the low will move. Luckily it looks promising
that we will get a decent run of average to even slightly below
average temperatures after the front passes through.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  69  87  60 /   0   0  50  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  67  85  58 /  10   0  50  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  67  84  58 /   0   0  50  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  63  82  57 /   0   0  50  50
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM